Race with no speed

[DigitalDownsJoe]

How do you all figure the pace of a race when there is no horses in a race who like to take the lead and set the pace? Do you try and figure out who will likely try(jockey's style or the closest thing to a front runner) I find these races a lot more hard to handicap when there isnt any real speed in the race.

[Gapfire]

How do you all figure the pace of a race when there is no horses in a race who like to take the lead and set the pace? Do you try and figure out who will likely try(jockey's style or the closest thing to a front runner) I find these races a lot more hard to handicap when there isnt any real speed in the race.

If you have access to figures, look for the horse with the fastest early pace figures. Like you say, a jockey who likes to send, helps in this situation.

[classhandicapper]

Usually there will one or two horses that have shown some speed at some point in their career even if they haven't recently. A smart jockey will sometimes use that speed to gain an advantage.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

But with no proven track of early pace, it makes it hard to determine how the race will play out. I have found that these races often have longshots win. I would really like to figure out an angle. Lets say the trainer looks at the race and sees there is no speed, why not instruct your jockey to make a move for the lead early and then slow the pace down a bit....Would seem like an obvious stategy...

[Gapfire]

But with no proven track of early pace, it makes it hard to determine how the race will play out. I have found that these races often have longshots win. I would really like to figure out an angle. Lets say the trainer looks at the race and sees there is no speed, why not instruct your jockey to make a move for the lead early and then slow the pace down a bit....Would seem like an obvious stategy...

I assume you are talking about non-maiden races.
When I see a horse out on the front end without the pace figures to back him up, he usually comes back to the field. I just look at it as false pace, and watch the 2nd tier horses compete.

[Gapfire]

But with no proven track of early pace, it makes it hard to determine how the race will play out. I have found that these races often have longshots win. I would really like to figure out an angle. Lets say the trainer looks at the race and sees there is no speed, why not instruct your jockey to make a move for the lead early and then slow the pace down a bit....Would seem like an obvious stategy...

Can you find a race that looks void of early speed today? Perhaps, we can try to break it down?

[Gapfire]

Usually there will one or two horses that have shown some speed at some point in their career even if they haven't recently. A smart jockey will sometimes use that speed to gain an advantage.

I agree with this. Most times, you can find a runner with a hint of early ability.

[RaceBookJoe]

I agree with this. Most times, you can find a runner with a hint of early ability.

Maybe a turn-time advantage? rbj

[DigitalDownsJoe]

What I really mean is in a race where there is not much signs of a clear cut front runner involving mostly or all horses who generally settle in or close(not to say they haven't ever taken the lead, but more importantly..haven't shown recent speed) Is this a spot where maybe a class drop has a bit more of an advantage?
I dont have a specific example at the moment, but I will surely post one when I come across is. It doesn't happen too often, but I remember a few times handicapping races in the past and coming across this scenario. I would think in these spots an expert handicapper would have a huge edge as he knows which jockey/trainers will see this as an opportunity to try and go gate to wire.

[cj's dad]

If you want an example, try this race.

No speed in the race. No E horses and 0 speed points.

I would think that the #8 gets the lead by default and stays there.

BTW- I would not bet this race.

[classhandicapper]

Maybe a turn-time advantage? rbj

What you might find is a horse that is generally a closer that went to the lead or raced close up in decent fractions one time 5 or even 10 races ago. So you know the horse has a little speed if the jockey wants to use it.

Unfortunately, I think some of the time it's fairly random and at other times it comes down to jockey decision (or trainer instruction) and you won't know.

[Gapfire]

If you want an example, try this race.

No speed in the race. No E horses and 0 speed points.

I would think that the #8 gets the lead by default and stays there.

BTW- I would not bet this race.

I think the #4 will find himself much closer to the pace today. The #7 should also try to dispute the pace here.

Gapfire figures for this race are 8-4-2-5.