What do you know about Maiden Claimers?

[Capper Al]

What do you know about Maiden Claimers and are willing to share? I have been beating most everything else recently except Maiden Claimers. Now the sensible thing to do would be to skip Maiden Claiming races. ( I wouldn't be a horseplayer if I liked to do the sensible things. ) Passing races isn't in my vocabulary. So I need to figure them out.

Maiden Claimers fall somewhere between Maidens and Runners. So I have been waffling as to my approach. A Friend suggests Ability Time for them. I'll be checking this out. Anything else?

[HUSKER55]

i have a terrible time with maidens so I save my money and bet more on the races I like. That is what I am supposed to do.

I take a FTS if the odds are good and the workouts are great. otherwise I do what you do. bet ability time and ask god why did I bet that horse!:D

[RaceBookJoe]

i have a terrible time with maidens so I save my money and bet more on the races I like. That is what I am supposed to do.

I take a FTS if the odds are good and the workouts are great. otherwise I do what you do. bet ability time and ask god why did I bet that horse!:D


Interesting, i would do the exact opposite. I figure that if a trainer puts a FTS horse into a maiden claimer, the trainer doesnt really see much of a future for the horse since he is willing to lose him first time out. More so, if the horse has fast workouts...you dont risk losing a fast horse especially at first asking.

I will handicapping Mcls, i usually look for either the least worst horse. I also always scan to see if any horse if dropping from a msw, and if they showed a little something in that race he might be a play. I usually avoid the lowest level of tracks though. rbj

[Ocala Mike]

Sometimes old saws are true.

The biggest class drop in racing is from MdSpWt to MdClm. Remember that, and concentrate on second and third time starters who are still learning the game.

I love MdClm races, like yesterday's 4th at Belmont.


Ocala Mike

[Capper Al]

Okay, Let's assume no class droppers from MSW into Maiden Claimers. What I'm after is calculating them not angles.

Thanks

[HUSKER55]

THANKS FOR YOUR INFO GUYS!

[jorcus]

A lot of intent depends on what the horse might be worth in the first palce. If someone paid 20k for a horse 3 months ago at a 2 year old training sale and it's in a 50k maiden as a first time starter it's not always a bad thing. If the horse was not sold at auction and is of moderate breeding it is not always a bad thing. The opposite is often true. Big priced horses in maiden claimers as a first time starter is not a good thing.

Maiden claimers are often like any other race as long if all the horses have started. Speed, trips, drops in class and signs of improvement all point the way. They get tricky when there are a lot of first time starters. Be careful of over hyped horses in these races as many sketch favorites show up becuse there is not much to go on.


Interesting, i would do the exact opposite. I figure that if a trainer puts a FTS horse into a maiden claimer, the trainer doesnt really see much of a future for the horse since he is willing to lose him first time out. More so, if the horse has fast workouts...you dont risk losing a fast horse especially at first asking.

I will handicapping Mcls, i usually look for either the least worst horse. I also always scan to see if any horse if dropping from a msw, and if they showed a little something in that race he might be a play. I usually avoid the lowest level of tracks though. rbj

[castaway01]

Okay, Let's assume no class droppers from MSW into Maiden Claimers. What I'm after is calculating them not angles.

Thanks

I'm confused why you'd want to ignore class droppers when that's one of the best ways to beat maiden claiming races. You can still get a price because the droppers usually look SO terrible at the MSW level. It might be an "angle" but I wouldn't ignore it.

[RaceBookJoe]

Okay, Let's assume no class droppers from MSW into Maiden Claimers. What I'm after is calculating them not angles.

Thanks

I treat them the same way then, look at the race shape/pace shape and start matching them, they're still just horses. rbj

[RaceBookJoe]

A lot of intent depends on what the horse might be worth in the first palce. If someone paid 20k for a horse 3 months ago at a 2 year old training sale and it's in a 50k maiden as a first time starter it's not always a bad thing. If the horse was not sold at auction and is of moderate breeding it is not always a bad thing. The opposite is often true. Big priced horses in maiden claimers as a first time starter is not a good thing.

Maiden claimers are often like any other race as long if all the horses have started. Speed, trips, drops in class and signs of improvement all point the way. They get tricky when there are a lot of first time starters. Be careful of over hyped horses in these races as many sketch favorites show up becuse there is not much to go on.

Honestly, the next time you happen to see a $50K or higher Maiden Claiming race please let me know, because i dont find too many if any of those. rbj

[classhandicapper]

I look for horses that I think can control the pace and class droppers that ran a decent race in strong field that doesn't look as good as it was on paper.

It's funny because I get my best results in graded stakes and maiden claimers but they are not handicapped alike.

[thaskalos]

I have come to realize two things about maiden claimers...

1.) They often improve dramatically in their second lifetime start.

2.) The horse that has recorded the highest debut race Beyer figure always deserves a second look...

[ranchwest]

I prefer playing maiden races off of physicality.

[Ocala Mike]

about maiden claimers...

They often improve dramatically in their second lifetime start.



That should be carved in stone!!!


Ocala Mike

[jorcus]

The number is just an example but they run many in the summer at Saratoga and there is one next Friday at Belmont. Use lower numbers if you like.

Honestly, the next time you happen to see a $50K or higher Maiden Claiming race please let me know, because i dont find too many if any of those. rbj

[turninforhome10]

Maiden claimers vary greatly by time of year and time remaining at race meet. Like right now IMHO big outfits are looking to cull and win over having to winter a horse. Those that are not going south for GP or Tam might be spotted to win and be claimed. Del Park usually has some decent buys for those that claim.
My decision making sometimes revolves a quote from a friend when I asked him if his horse had a shot today:
"If this horse breaks his maiden he will loose his best friend"

[Greyfox]

Maiden Claimers?

1. Seldom if ever bet first time starters - exception would be excellent morning drills and other entrants have nowhere ran near par in their starts.

2. Pay attention to the trainer-jockey stats. If the "go to" guy is in the saddle where he hasn't been in previous races, trainer intent is present.

3. Maiden Sp wt to Maiden claiming is a huge class drop at most major tracks.
Beware the dropper who was purchased for a very high price and is now coming in for a low price. Make sure that you check his appearance in the Post Parade, he's (she's) for sale and might not be intact. However, sometimes with the drop, it might be able to win on 3 legs against a weak field.

4. Maidens are usually the most honest horses at the track. If you don't play those races, you'll miss out on several horizontal exotic opportunities.

5. Watch for barn changes. A maiden switching to a poor trainer usually doesn't do as well as before. A maiden switching to a "hot shot" trainer may improve in leaps and bounds. Check the trainer's stats with first time take overs.

6. Don't label a Maiden with a particular running style until it's had several races. When you toss out a runner who you've suspected is a "need to lead"
type and won't get the lead, you'll be shocked how frequently that runner may show a better performance from behind the pace.

[RaceBookJoe]

The number is just an example but they run many in the summer at Saratoga and there is one next Friday at Belmont. Use lower numbers if you like.

The point is, that there is 1 50k mcl this week @belmont..its not a common thing. I would like to see if anyone has stats on how many horses get claimed from a $50k+ mcl. I would think that if anyone wanted to spend that much money for a horse, there are smarter ways to do it than to buy a horse someone is willing to risk b4 they even win a race or even run before. Either way, i still usually handicap that same way...looking for a horse that can take advantage of a pace situation etc. rbj

[BUD]

I Find If You Can Handle The word PASS---If You are dedicated to watch and Watch MC---Look For MPW Dropping--Cant Miss--Why--Talking Heads won' let you--

OK To My Lil List--0 fer 25 MC-Hmm-All say Its Trash--Find anything Redeeming ith the last 2-3 races--Maybe ofer 10 and a New Gelding---Or first turf---VS Shyt---

First timers vs Shyt--Then first timers are viable..

Also--if they be wee ones look Ped and fowl date---In UK 2yo go 1 plus--

redboard alert---putting this 2 info in in a uk maiden 2yo--I have some winna's

Do Remember Pass---Tho---No Value There--Yes there are thousand of races to get in Mate--------I am tired its late---Anyone correct me---Peace---Londons Finest---BuD---Nah...

[Capper Al]

Thanks everyone for the input.

Castaway01,

I'm confused why you'd want to ignore class droppers when that's one of the best ways to beat maiden claiming races. You can still get a price because the droppers usually look SO terrible at the MSW level. It might be an "angle" but I wouldn't ignore it.

I do watch for class drops. What I'm looking for in this thread is number crunching methods. A lot of Maiden Claimers can't use Maiden stats or running stats. It's a gray area.

[Canarsie]

This doesn't happen that often but I always use this angle. If a FTS is owned, trained, and bred by the same person I figure they know the horses limits and are appropriately spotted.

After the first start I still give this type of angle a good hard look if the horse showed any type of effort in it's previous races.

It also always pay to look at the race replays as the comments are not always accurate. They could be carried wide, bumped a little, and other stuff that isn't used.

[JohnGalt1]

Mike Helm, I believe, advises to look up breeding on maidens dropping in class. He believes that it's like a new start since it's against weaker competition. It makes sense to me, so I do it.

I use Bris Sire Stats. When I see a MDN Special Wgt drop down I look up the sire and dam sire's ratings for First Time Starters. I also look up their FTS rating if they have only one start and put the result in (--), unless the only race was "troubled", then I don't put it in parenthesis.

[pondman]

This doesn't happen that often but I always use this angle. If a FTS is owned, trained, and bred by the same person I figure they know the horses limits and are appropriately spotted.

I'm the opposite. I like high end owners with a decent trainer-- shipping a maiden claimer; I prefer lightly raced, dropping for a score. You won't be able to handicap these, because their races look awful. I've got a method from observation-- but forget about a rating system.

[ldiatone]

some view what horses finished 2nd or 3rd in the last race and reason the winner is not in the this race so that(2nd,or3rd finisher) horse is a contender. some don't even consider maidens w/ a record of 8 races or more w/ no wins, "professional maiden".
i veiw pars, and if horses in MSW's don't run close to pars then i consider FTS w/ good workouts.

[Bruddah]

Over the years I have learned not to bet maiden claimers. If I do, it's an action bet for $5 or $10 only.

A waste of money and time trying to figure winners. (JMHO)

[thaskalos]

IMO...pace figures are more helpful than speed (final time) figures when handicapping maiden claimers.

Horses who have been "battle tested" in quicker-paced races often hold an edge over those exiting slower-paced races...even if that edge is not apparent by looking at their speed figures.

[098poi]

I think the more lightly raced the better. As has been posted second time starters often surprise. Maiden races have an expectation of improvement. The horse is not intended to race in that class forever. Never disregard the lightly raced horse. Who is more likely to improve and leave the maiden ranks, the horse who has raced 10 times with superior numbers or the horse who has race 3 or 4 times with so-so numbers?

[BeatTheChalk]

:lol: Whatever you are doing to win in other types of races .. Trade for my
knowledge of the maidens. :ThmbUp: A bit of tongue in cheek here..
But I have found the best way to play maiden claimers : Look at the
second call times of each horse. Find the top 3 horses and go from there.

[classhandicapper]

Maiden Claimers?

1. Seldom if ever bet first time starters - exception would be excellent morning drills and other entrants have nowhere ran near par in their starts.

2. Pay attention to the trainer-jockey stats. If the "go to" guy is in the saddle where he hasn't been in previous races, trainer intent is present.

3. Maiden Sp wt to Maiden claiming is a huge class drop at most major tracks.
Beware the dropper who was purchased for a very high price and is now coming in for a low price. Make sure that you check his appearance in the Post Parade, he's (she's) for sale and might not be intact. However, sometimes with the drop, it might be able to win on 3 legs against a weak field.

4. Maidens are usually the most honest horses at the track. If you don't play those races, you'll miss out on several horizontal exotic opportunities.

5. Watch for barn changes. A maiden switching to a poor trainer usually doesn't do as well as before. A maiden switching to a "hot shot" trainer may improve in leaps and bounds. Check the trainer's stats with first time take overs.

6. Don't label a Maiden with a particular running style until it's had several races. When you toss out a runner who you've suspected is a "need to lead"
type and won't get the lead, you'll be shocked how frequently that runner may show a better performance from behind the pace.

I enjoyed that post a lot.

[Spiderman]

Only bet maiden claimers when race is part of P3, P4 or P6 sequence. Then, I would use two or three.

Rarely use a first time starter in maiden claiming race, unless: A) excellent workout pattern and B) pedigree suggests early speed on either dam or sire side of family. Prefer dam side as indicator of potential.

[rubicon55]

Maiden Claimers?

1. Seldom if ever bet first time starters - exception would be excellent morning drills and other entrants have nowhere ran near par in their starts.

2. Pay attention to the trainer-jockey stats. If the "go to" guy is in the saddle where he hasn't been in previous races, trainer intent is present.

3. Maiden Sp wt to Maiden claiming is a huge class drop at most major tracks.
Beware the dropper who was purchased for a very high price and is now coming in for a low price. Make sure that you check his appearance in the Post Parade, he's (she's) for sale and might not be intact. However, sometimes with the drop, it might be able to win on 3 legs against a weak field.

4. Maidens are usually the most honest horses at the track. If you don't play those races, you'll miss out on several horizontal exotic opportunities.

5. Watch for barn changes. A maiden switching to a poor trainer usually doesn't do as well as before. A maiden switching to a "hot shot" trainer may improve in leaps and bounds. Check the trainer's stats with first time take overs.

6. Don't label a Maiden with a particular running style until it's had several races. When you toss out a runner who you've suspected is a "need to lead"
type and won't get the lead, you'll be shocked how frequently that runner may show a better performance from behind the pace.

Very Good Points Grey Fox, I agree on all counts. Especially in regard to Trainer/Jockey angle which a lot of times indicates a positive intent. I might throw in Maidens finshing second in their last race and look for improving Maidens in the fall since they have had time to mature. Sometimes they will need a race or two if they race greenly. I try to avoid "professional" madiens that never seem to graduate (4 or more races in Maiden Ranks) unless there is a drop in class.

[jorcus]

I was going to bring up the issue of the "professional maiden". I know there are a lot of them but If I see a horse with good recent form, in the right spot and I think I can evaluate the horses it's running against I will bet the Pro maiden from time to time. As long as they are not losing because they hang. Sometimes it just takes awhile to get the horse in the right race.



some view what horses finished 2nd or 3rd in the last race and reason the winner is not in the this race so that(2nd,or3rd finisher) horse is a contender. some don't even consider maidens w/ a record of 8 races or more w/ no wins, "professional maiden".
i veiw pars, and if horses in MSW's don't run close to pars then i consider FTS w/ good workouts.

[wonatthewire1]

Very Good Points Grey Fox, I agree on all counts. Especially in regard to Trainer/Jockey angle which a lot of times indicates a positive intent. I might throw in Maidens finshing second in their last race and look for improving Maidens in the fall since they have had time to mature. Sometimes they will need a race or two if they race greenly. I try to avoid "professional" madiens that never seem to graduate (4 or more races in Maiden Ranks) unless there is a drop in class.


open msw to state bred msw is a drop that a lot of people miss

happens a lot in Louisiana and Texas

[Linny]

My MDCL rules involve several angles.

I start with the belief that almost every maiden horse is overvalued. The MSW's will probably have to go to MDCL or a cheaper circuit's MSW's to win. (The very good horses are the exceptions, not the rules.)

Rule 1: Avoid "professional maidens." The are 0-fers and often run 2nd or 3rd, thus they are overbet. If they win, I lose. (Keep them in mind for EX/TRI/SFA though.)

Rule 2: MDCL stats are important. Some trainers are average with all maidens but much higher with MDCL's. These guys are pretty good and spotting their stock, and at reading the stock in the other barns. They are usually claiming trainers used to eyeballing everyone else's horses. This angle is especially important if the horse is being debuted for a tag.

Rule 3: Ignore the purhase price vs the claiming tag. Once a horse has shown it can't run with MSW's many outfits are looking to cut losses and open stalls for new prospects. This rule is especially important on major circuits like NY SoCal and at times KY where expensive babies are common.

Rule 4: Pay close attention to maidens who have been claimed. It seems that when certain trainers claim maidens they improve, no matter how bad they looked before. This is doubly important if the claim is small barn to major outfit.

Rule 5: Pay close attention to class rises. A small rise in class can be a sign of trainer confidence. This only applies in full fields where I don't suspect that the trainer was "hustled" by the racing office to fill the race. Class rise with a blinker change and fast work is a favorite combo.

I'm in NY where high priced MDCL's are common. At meets like Saratoga, I think that many MSW to MDCL$50 will need more class relief to win but owners don't want to declare a horse a dud. I rarely pay attention to owners but at meets like SAR and KEE I look for owners who are in the running for "Owner titles" to drop with impunity to win their award. Repole is famous for it in NY. Ramsey is another not afraid to risk a horse.

[menifee]

On the class drop angle from msw to maiden claimers - the drop doesn't mean that much for 2 yr olds in july, august, september. It means more when their three and in the late fall of their 2 yr old season.

I think the hardest thing about maiden claimers is picking winners, but I think the easiest thing to do is to pick horses that will finish 2nd or 3rd and not win the race. Often those that get second or third in previous maiden claimers are way overbet next time out but always find a way to hang again. Great if you are playing vertical exotics.

[Capper Al]

I look for horses that I think can control the pace and class droppers that ran a decent race in strong field that doesn't look as good as it was on paper.

It's funny because I get my best results in graded stakes and maiden claimers but they are not handicapped alike.

That's because Class counts for graded stakes and maiden claimers. I'm going to look at using BRIS class ratings instead of speed or workouts since they overwhelming theme here seems to be class.

[Capper Al]

:lol: Whatever you are doing to win in other types of races .. Trade for my
knowledge of the maidens. :ThmbUp: A bit of tongue in cheek here..
But I have found the best way to play maiden claimers : Look at the
second call times of each horse. Find the top 3 horses and go from there.

Sharing is difficult. We work hard for our understanding. I appreciate it.

[jorcus]

It's a good point about the vertical exotics. One thing Maiden Claimers often have is a wide seperation in ability from first to last. You will often find solid toss outs because the horses have run enough times and shown no ability. They often run for weak connections. This is especially true for bottom level maiden claiming fillies which is the weakest group on the grounds. The ability seperation from first to last can be big and it's much easier to seperate out the pretenders.



On the class drop angle from msw to maiden claimers - the drop doesn't mean that much for 2 yr olds in july, august, september. It means more when their three and in the late fall of their 2 yr old season.

I think the hardest thing about maiden claimers is picking winners, but I think the easiest thing to do is to pick horses that will finish 2nd or 3rd and not win the race. Often those that get second or third in previous maiden claimers are way overbet next time out but always find a way to hang again. Great if you are playing vertical exotics.

[OTM Al]

You almost never can get a decent price on the MSW to MCL drop anymore, but it is a big drop. When I bet these races I also look for horses that haven't run too many time and those that got on or near the lead early in the race, even if they finished 8th by 13. Those that just missed in the end are way overbet and are just as likely to miss again. These fields can be dominated by one that can just get out front more than any other type of race IMO.

[Robert Fischer]

I start with the track bias, then project the setup of the race

most of these guys need help to win

[Valuist]

Avoid first timer starters. Avoid runners with too many races (usually over 10).

Do NOT toss out a horse because it has had 6 or 7 starts. Maiden claimers are kind of like musical chairs. It takes most horses several races to work their way thru.

Do not throw out runners coming off small layoffs. A horse that ran 4th at the current level 55 days ago may have actually finished in front of two or three horses who have since broken their maiden.

Drop downs are obviously important, but especially droppers who have some degree of early speed.

Key races are a very strong angle in maiden claimers.

[Linny]

I agree on key races. Some MDCL's just seem to come up very weak and others quite strong, relative to the class.

Droppers from MSW's at 2 are riskier because the horses haven't found their level yet and because many MDCL's feature almost all class droppers.

With a lightly raced horse, I like what I call "lightbulb" signs. They are the wakeups that a horse has. Increased early speed, a fast work (if he'd never done so before) or a sudden strong closing move are signs that a horse is starting to "get it."

I like to watch video replays for horses with one or two races. Unless I played them in the 1st or 2nd start, I may not have really noticed them at all in the running. Sometimes, even when they are badly beaten you can see signs of life, like a middle move or late interest or just running straight in the lane.

[davew]

I like the ones that have few starts

and were bet heavy on their first outing but did not win

[salty]

suffolk race 2 today looks pretty bad. how would you pick the winner of this 5,000 mdn clm?

-the 7/5 mL favorite's record is 13-0-2-2.

A race that looks like this usually lights up the board, but it is pretty tough to guess what will happen.

[salty]

well it was a good example until 3 of the 8 are scratched.

[OTM Al]

Still a good example, but can't know the results, which can be deceptive anyway as it would be a sample of 1. If I had to take one here it would be the 7. He's run a few more times than I'd like, but there have only been six of those shots at this level, which looks to be where he belongs. Anything close to the one 2 back, he's on the lead and no one is catching him. Bad horses aren't so good at the catching business.The favorite has never made the lead, so I'd toss him based on that alone. My second choice would be the 1. Lightly raced and moving in the right direction. The rest look like the proverbial dumpster fire, though the 4 might rate 3rd pick to win

[Tom]

DRF's Betting Maidens has a method where you modify the horse's best Beyer by so many points depending on the age and number of races it has had. I found it pretty useful in cheaper maidens races, especially claimers.

Aside from that, I look at breeding, workouts, and trainer. Contrary to popular opinion, for those horses that have a few races, I look at sustained pace, third fraction, and late pace.

[Capper Al]

DRF's Betting Maidens has a method where you modify the horse's best Beyer by so many points depending on the age and number of races it has had. I found it pretty useful in cheaper maidens races, especially claimers.

Aside from that, I look at breeding, workouts, and trainer. Contrary to popular opinion, for those horses that have a few races, I look at sustained pace, third fraction, and late pace.

Would that be "Betting Maidens & 2-Year-Olds" by Dan IllMan?

[Tom]

Yes, that's the one.

[mishka]

I am pretty new to handicapping--been to races taking visiting family to local track at which we lost money. but enjoyed the time. After a year or so of now-and-again playing, reading, studying, I got on the "Dick Mitchell 200 race plan". He recommends you handicapp 200 playable races to determine your skill level and to gain practice. I was hopping around alot, but decided to play 30-50 races of one type at time to see what I could discover. The first wave was strictly Maiden Claiming. Obviously a small sample, but a few thoughts, more questions than thoughts.

How real is the class drop from MSW to MC? My limited plays show the majority of those drops losing--rarely in the money. When they do win, the odds are not that great (like the highest I saw was 4.2). Is the implication that this drop is a long shot play? or a will return a nice profit? In my limited plays, simply not seeing it so far. But I will bow to those who have made a good living at this race if they have seen otherwise over many races.

But I did learn though was that a favorite can actually be an overlay. I played one race at Del Mar where the MSW to MC dropper was thee obvious choice. (The purse was like $50K+ for a MC race). The final odds were something around 1.5 for the favorite, but should have been like 1/10 or something near that. Even for a new person trying to do their own odds line, this was obviously way out of line. Horse won by about 4 lengths. In this case, in reading about class drops looks like the barn/trainer got in and nabbed themselves a nice, easy, profitable win. Maybe this is profitable angle--in MC races enough doubt even obvious favorites don't get bet down into the dirt and end up overlays.

You know, maybe a potentially significant class drop to watch is not from MSW, but from levels like MC25000 or MC30000 to MC10000. James Quinn in his book on "recreational handicapping" writes about these drops at tracks like Santa Anita as being fairly significant.

Good thread. Thanks.

[pondman]

I
You know, maybe a potentially significant class drop to watch is not from MSW, but from levels like MC25000 or MC30000 to MC10000.
Good thread. Thanks.

If you are playing in California, you might want to watch MSW60,000 to MSW26,000

[mishka]

If you are playing in California, you might want to watch MSW60,000 to MSW26,000

Thanks for the tip!

[DRIVEWAY]

Maiden Claimers Only
Jan thru April Only
Fts only
Minimum temperature 40 degrees only
One turn races only
__________________________________________________ ________
Points:
Number of Workouts at track or local training tracks within 33 days - 1 pt each
Gate work 3rd or 4th workout back - 1 pt
5 Furlong or longer work - 1 pt
Lasix - 1pt
Blinkers - 1 pt
__________________________________________________ _________
Single top horse with 8+ points bet to win with no minimum odds otherwise
Single top horse with 7 points bet to win with minimum odds 6-1 otherwise
Top Point horse(s) per race with a minimum of 6 points
are bettable at 9-1 odds or higher. Maximum bettable horses are three per race otherwise
If more than 3 horses qualify, restrict wager possibles to 12-1 ML and increase minmum odds to 13-1 otherwise
If still more than 3 horses pass race.

[Greyfox]

Maiden Claimers Only
Jan thru April Only
Fts only
Minimum temperature 40 degrees only
One turn races only
__________________________________________________ ________
Points:
Number of Workouts at track or local training tracks within 33 days - 1 pt each
Gate work 3rd or 4th workout back - 1 pt
5 Furlong or longer work - 1 pt
Lasix - 1pt
Blinkers - 1 pt
__________________________________________________ _________
Single top horse with 8+ points bet to win with no minimum odds otherwise
Single top horse with 7 points bet to win with minimum odds 6-1 otherwise
Top Point horse(s) per race with a minimum of 6 points
are bettable at 9-1 odds or higher. Maximum bettable horses are three per race otherwise
If more than 3 horses qualify, restrict wager possibles to 12-1 ML and increase minmum odds to 13-1 otherwise
If still more than 3 horses pass race.

Interesting ideas.
Personally, a horse in So Cal that is not on Lasix is a toss for me.

[Ocala Mike]

Bumping this thread with a reference to Sunday's 4th race at Belmont. "Unusual" connections put over a second-time starter by the name of UNUSUAL LAZ to pay $34.00 off a very poor first start.

The horse was pounded in the exacta pool; I noticed at one time that the exacta with the favorite second was paying less than the win price, a fact that Andy Serling tweeted about.


Ocala Mike

[Capper Al]

MishKa,

What is "Dick Mitchell's 200 race plan?"

Thanks

[Quackfan]

I try to keep it pretty simple. Not only Maiden Claimers but I use this with all Maiden Races. If the J/T win % is 30% or better and the horse is going off at 7/2 or better it is an automatic play for me. But the J/T sampling has to be with 20 or more.

[rubicon55]

I try to keep it pretty simple. Not only Maiden Claimers but I use this with all Maiden Races. If the J/T win % is 30% or better and the horse is going off at 7/2 or better it is an automatic play for me. But the J/T sampling has to be with 20 or more.

Curious, it seems 30% is rather high. On the bigger circuits I see 20-25% coming in a lot on all race types. I imagine that the 30% threshold really restricts qaulifying horses or number of plays. I dont't disagree - that percentage is a combination. Do you agree?

[Quackfan]

Yes I do agree. In race types other than Maiden Races you will see the 30% combination a lot more, but they seem to be over bet. But in Maiden Races maybe due to the lack of information it seems to me that you tend to get better prices on this combination. IMO to be some what successful at this game the player has to be very selective and pick there spots irregardless of there handicapping methods. That means passing on a lot of races. I only play the bigger circuits and this combination seems to come up enough to keep my interest. I also like playing them in vertical exotics DDs & Pick-3s irregardless of price if I can find something I like in an adjoining race.

[mishka]

MishKa,

What is "Dick Mitchell's 200 race plan?"

Thanks

CapperAl: in his book Winning Throughbred Strategies in Chapter 10 called Setting Performance Goals, Mitchell recommends that to determine how well you can bet and return an acceptable ROI that:

"This is a decision you have to make for yourself. In order to be able to make this decision you will need a result summary from ten twenty-race groups: that's 200 racess. For now now we are interested in setting achievable goals which can be modified as we improve our skills. page 67

Page over he states this is what you need to tell yourself about those 200 races in 20 race increments: win at least 12 out of 20 by betting on two winners; ROI is at least 20%; Win percent is 60% with average mutuel of $8.

M.