Possible tote board angle

[Tape Reader]

Possible tote board angle


Hi All,

While at the track, without a computer, I usually start charting the tote at 10 MTP. When I see a horse go down in odds while all others go up, or stay the same, I consider it a for sure sign of a big bet. I refer to it as a "power bet."

My un-sophisticated software (at home) often reveals "candidates" for this angle that work well.

Hope others can find this useful and report back.

Tape Reader

[dkbigsky]

do you have a place you can get streaming live odds that a person could run in excel

[Striker]

I look at the tote the very minute the odds for the next race come up, say 20-25 minutes to post, and obviously go from there. Lots of early money would draw my attention more than a big bet at say 10 mtp, but that is just me.

[Dr Jersey Jim]

My experience has been that watching the tote is best for helping you determine how to bet and not what to bet. You simply can not rely on the betting public's handicapping (especially, since a lot of numbers often change after the race starts). That said, I have some simple tools on my website to help you analyze the tote. Just check my user profile here if your interested.

JJ

[speculus]

Possible tote board angle


...............When I see a horse go down in odds while all others go up, or stay the same, ...............
Tape Reader

With due respect, a horse can go down in odds while all others go up, but in theory it is nearly impossible to "stay the same" when ALL others are going up.

[Robert Goren]

I spent one spring looking at this and the timing involving trainers. It was a dead end.

[BlueShoe]

I look at the tote the very minute the odds for the next race come up, say 20-25 minutes to post, and obviously go from there. Lots of early money would draw my attention more than a big bet at say 10 mtp, but that is just me.
Ditto. If only start watching at the 10 minute line, often miss those bet early. Have commented on this before, but Imo early action is often very meaningful. A $1000 win bet from a betting stable early in the wagering, has, from my perspective and experience, far more significance than does a $5000 one from a whale playing for rebates very late because his computer model tells him to.

[pondman]

While at the track, without a computer, I usually start charting the tote at 10 MTP. When I see a horse go down in odds while all others go up, or stay the same, I consider it a for sure sign of a big bet. I refer to it as a "power bet."

I don't think you should bet with the crowd, or let the crowd hand you a horse. That's a recipe for disaster.

Key the horse and then consider the odds--in that order. Many of my bets increase in value from the M/L to post, so I'm going to say: Be carefull. You're observations aren't correct.

[Milkshaker]

In the back of my mind, I have always treated particular tracks or circuits as betting "markets."

For me, there are appealing market angles at Keeneland that differ from the market ngles I play at Delta Downs. I like each for different reasons.

And of course, within each of these "markets" are micro-markets (the races themselves) that open up a whole entire other set of playing preferences.

Some markets and micro-markets I stay away from entirely--they are either unappealing betting-wise, or I know I consistently can't crack them.

[Tape Reader]

My experience has been that watching the tote is best for helping you determine how to bet and not what to bet. You simply can not rely on the betting public's handicapping (especially, since a lot of numbers often change after the race starts). That said, I have some simple tools on my website to help you analyze the tote. Just check my user profile here if your interested.

JJ

Thank you Dr Jersey Jim. Very nice site.

[Tape Reader]

Ditto. If only start watching at the 10 minute line, often miss those bet early. Have commented on this before, but Imo early action is often very meaningful. A $1000 win bet from a betting stable early in the wagering, has, from my perspective and experience, far more significance than does a $5000 one from a whale playing for rebates very late because his computer model tells him to.

I agree with Striker and BlueShoe. Early money is one of my favorite angles for catching Big Balloons.

[Tape Reader]

I don't think you should bet with the crowd, or let the crowd hand you a horse. That's a recipe for disaster.

Key the horse and then consider the odds--in that order. Many of my bets increase in value from the M/L to post, so I'm going to say: Be carefull. You're observations aren't correct.

This is just one of the variables that I have been experimenting with. My software allows me to pick angles and then have them ranked according to my precedence.

I will then usually box the top four in an exotic, if the favorite is not in the top three.

[Greyfox]

Playing from the tote board is just letting others do the handicapping for you.
Being a "Chartist" is not my cup of tea. I think that I can do better.

[Tape Reader]

Playing from the tote board is just letting others do the handicapping for you.
Being a "Chartist" is not my cup of tea. I think that I can do better.

I'm rooting for you.

[castaway01]

I spent one spring looking at this and the timing involving trainers. It was a dead end.

I know I gave you a hard time on other topics like the state of New Jersey (lol) but you're right. All of this stuff is immaterial in the age of Internet and last-second betting---people trying to read into $50 bet early when $30,000 is coming in late. Hey, as long as people waste their money on it we should be thankful.

Also, kudos to your "bridgejumper" thread. Nice work Robert.

[Dr Jersey Jim]

Thank you Dr Jersey Jim. Very nice site.

Thanks.
That's all straight HTML and Javascript so it's easy to see the code, runs good on my Android phone and it's private as everything runs in the browser and nothing gets sent back to the server. Heck, you can save the .htm file to your PC and just run it from there. You'll get everything but the images. You'll also be able to tweak the code if you want.

I'm going to put up some more when time permits. Let me know if you'd like to see anything in particular.

JJ

[Tape Reader]

4th at Belmont 9/15/11

Of course this is "cherry picking." But, like I said, it is only an angle that some can add to their analysis.

There were four "power bets." They were all involved in the top four placings.

Change Horse Power ML Base Odds Money
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
f1.24 4 0 6.00 4.83 6.00 9093.84
c-6.67 5 0 20.00 13.33 15.00 3891.38
c-3.33 8 1 15.00 11.67 14.00 4141.09
c-3.00 2 0 10.00 7.00 8.00 6899.33
c-1.93 3 1 3.00 1.07 1.00 31992.04
c-.33 9 1 5.00 4.67 4.00 12754.54
.97 1 1 10.00 10.33 10.00 5756.56
1.29 7 0 20.00 21.00 27.00 2240.21

4th race - Belmont Park - September 15, 2011 http://www.equibase.com/images/products/video.gif
Video Race Replay (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpRaceVideo.cfm?TRK=BEL&CY=USA&DATE=09/15/2011&DAY=D&RACE=4&SITE=SMCHRR)
PgmHorseWinPlaceShow8 Fire Assay (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8280618&registry=T)41.0010.806.103 Allumeuse (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8297700&registry=T) 3.502.501 Broadway Ghost (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8005966&registry=T) 4.00

$2 Daily Double6-8 500.00$2 Exacta8-3 135.00$2 Quinella3-8 32.60$2 Superfecta8-3-1-9 2,467.00$2 Trifecta8-3-1 779.00$2 Pick 35-6-8 (3 correct)2,468.00

[Tape Reader]

4th at Belmont 9/15/11

Of course this is "cherry picking." But, like I said, it is only an angle that some can add to their analysis.

There were four "power bets." They were all involved in the top four placings.

Change Horse Power ML Base Odds Money
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========
f1.24 4 0 6.00 4.83 6.00 9093.84
c-6.67 5 0 20.00 13.33 15.00 3891.38
c-3.33 8 1 15.00 11.67 14.00 4141.09
c-3.00 2 0 10.00 7.00 8.00 6899.33
c-1.93 3 1 3.00 1.07 1.00 31992.04
c-.33 9 1 5.00 4.67 4.00 12754.54
.97 1 1 10.00 10.33 10.00 5756.56
1.29 7 0 20.00 21.00 27.00 2240.21



4th race - Belmont Park - September 15, 2011 http://www.equibase.com/images/products/video.gif

Video Race Replay (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpRaceVideo.cfm?TRK=BEL&CY=USA&DATE=09/15/2011&DAY=D&RACE=4&SITE=SMCHRR)



PgmHorseWinPlaceShow8 Fire Assay (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8280618&registry=T)41.0010.806.103 Allumeuse (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8297700&registry=T)3.502.501 Broadway Ghost (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8005966&registry=T)4.00

$2 Daily Double6-8 500.00$2 Exacta8-3 135.00$2 Quinella3-8 32.60$2 Superfecta8-3-1-9 2,467.00$2 Trifecta8-3-1 779.00$2 Pick 35-6-8 (3 correct)2,468.00



Sorry for the way it printed. I set it in Courier hoping that it would all line up.

[therussmeister]

do you have a place you can get streaming live odds that a person could run in excel

You can import supertote (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/totedb/tracks.cgi) or DRF tote into excel. If you want to import exacta or daily double information too, I couldn't get excel to access DRF exotics, but you can from supertote.

You may be a little frustrated that excel will only refresh every minute, I would prefer every 30 seconds.

[skate]

totes vary a lot from track to track

Evangiline and S. Cal boards would be mucho different.

and so on...

[u002dag]

Hi TheRussMiester,
What query do you use to import data to Excel? I can only get the pool data.

Thanks

[formula_2002]

This should be of interest:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1161744#post1161744

I just completed posting 460 plays in over 200 races on the "selections" forum that returned a flat bet profit 2%.

Any track that had a race win pool handel of at least $2000 or so was bet

[Tape Reader]

This is cherry picking and I didn't bet it, so I'll label it: For Entertainment Only.

In the 4th at Belmont today (9/22/11) there were 12 entries. Three of the 12 had what I refer to in this thread as "power bets." The 3, 1, 8.

The 3 won and paid $70.50.
The 1 ran second and paid $45.00.
The 3, 1 exacta paid $848.00.

I post this stuff, hopefully, to encourage software development for the tote board.

[formula_2002]

My toteboard analysis program picked the winner of that race. See my post on the selections forum. It was one of three horses i posted for the race. Although not posted, the $100 horse in the first was in my top three.

[pondman]

I've watch the tote at Golden Gate and with 1 minute to go there was $6,670 in the win pool. At the post the win pool was $42,344, and the power play would have disappeared.

How could you possibly bet this way? With 36k being bet at the last minute?

[Tape Reader]

I've watch the tote at Golden Gate and with 1 minute to go there was $6,670 in the win pool. At the post the win pool was $42,344, and the power play would have disappeared.

How could you possibly bet this way? With 36k being bet at the last minute?

When I chart the tote board, I use graph paper (actually specially designed).

10 MTP 9 MTP 8 MTP... etc.

In each time box I record the odds of each horse. When one horse goes down while all the rest stay the same, or go up, it is an unmistakable sign of a big bet.

I then consider them as "candidates" with other variables that I use to box a vertical exotic.

I could care less about how much money is added to the pool in the last impulse.

[Tape Reader]

My toteboard analysis program picked the winner of that race. See my post on the selections forum. It was one of three horses i posted for the race. Although not posted, the $100 horse in the first was in my top three.

Excellent hit!

Could you share with us some of the things that you look at?

Win pool only? ML discrepancy? How close to MTP do you make your choice?

[formula_2002]

Excellent hit!

Could you share with us some of the things that you look at?

Win pool only? ML discrepancy? How close to MTP do you make your choice?

When my roi approaches about .82, I'll be happy to share everything :)
Right now, after 300+ races, it's about 1.00..

[pondman]

I could care less about how much money is added to the pool in the last impulse.

So you'd be on Baze at 6/5 with 1 minute to go? The late money comes in (80% in the two minutes on the West Coast), but it goes against baze and the horse moves to 9/2. And Baze runs out of the money.

How could you possibly bet under those circumstances? Do you have access to last cue?

[Tape Reader]

So you'd be on Baze at 6/5 with 1 minute to go? The late money comes in (80% in the two minutes on the West Coast), but it goes against baze and the horse moves to 9/2. And Baze runs out of the money.

How could you possibly bet under those circumstances? Do you have access to last cue?

Could you please explain to me how I would be on Baze at 6/5 with 1 minute to go?

[pondman]

Could you please explain to me how I would be on Baze at 6/5 with 1 minute to go?

It was bet down while all others went up.

But then 36k moved in on other horses...with a minute to go. Mucho money moves late.

When do you bet?

5 minutes to go? 4? 3? 2? 1? If you had the ability to make the final bet, you might have something.

[Tape Reader]

It was bet down while all others went up.

But then 36k moved in on other horses...with a minute to go. Mucho money moves late.

When do you bet?

5 minutes to go? 4? 3? 2? 1? If you had the ability to make the final bet, you might have something.

This is not at all what I am saying.

I note every horse that is bet down while others stay the same, or go up, in each "time cell" starting at 10 MTP. At PT there can be from 0 to 9, (with a one minute refresh) what I refer to as "power bets." Usually there are fewer than 3 or 4.

I then consider these horses as candidates for an exotic box with other variables that I use. As stated in # 12 of this thread, I try to avoid betting when the favorite is in the mix.

[pondman]

I then consider these horses as candidates for an exotic box with other variables that I use.

Okay. Didn't read this.

[formula_2002]

AS OF NOW, 343 POSTED RACES RETURNED A POSITIVE FLAT BET AND POSITIVE PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET ROI, USING TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS ONLY.
THE RACES ARE A COMBINATION OF USA AND NON USA RACES!!

THERE IS NO HANDICAPPING OF HORSES...ONLY OF BETTORS :)..

KEY, TREAT THE GAME AS IF IT WERE JUST ANOTHER CASINO GAME..
KNOW THE ODDS

[Tape Reader]

AS OF NOW, 343 POSTED RACES RETURNED A POSITIVE FLAT BET AND POSITIVE PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET ROI, USING TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS ONLY.
THE RACES ARE A COMBINATION OF USA AND NON USA RACES!!

THERE IS NO HANDICAPPING OF HORSES...ONLY OF BETTORS :)..

KEY, TREAT THE GAME AS IF IT WERE JUST ANOTHER CASINO GAME..
KNOW THE ODDS

This thread was started about "Possible tote board angle."

I admired your expertise. Without revealing your "Formula" could you please share with us some of the variables that you look at. Just asking.

[fmhealth]

Thought other posters on this thread might relate to this.

http://leftatthegate.blogspot.com/

[formula_2002]

This thread was started about "Possible tote board angle."

I admired your expertise. Without revealing your "Formula" could you please share with us some of the variables that you look at. Just asking.

I think "I" am the angle.
:cool:
two $70 horses posted in two days!!
Just today..
"WON 2 OUT OF 5 PLAYS
$158 STRUCTURED BETS RETURNED $230.40

THOSE $70 WINNERS ARE COOL!!"

[PaceAdvantage]

It's guys like Formula that inspire me to keep looking at this sort of thing...