PHA & TUP, MONDAY 11/24

[Jim F.]

Philadelphia Park...

(5) 6-PRINCESS ZABOO 15-1

(6) 6-COMES A TIDE 12-1



Turf Paradise...

(4) 9-BUCK'S TRAIL 5-1

[redriver]

Looking at R8 Any bias at TuP ? weather good? Turf firm? Any info would be appreciated. Sunday..............NO JOY

[Jim F.]

Just looked out the window and weather is fine--partly cloudy and cool. As far as track bias goes, I ignore it, it just confuses me. Although at TuP the early speedsters usually have an advantage.

[kingfin66]

#2 - Chief Arias over 3 and 5

2/3-5/3-5, although I haven't decided whether I will stick to an exacta or take a stab at the trifecta too.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by redriver
Looking at R8 Any bias at TuP ? weather good? Turf firm? Any info would be appreciated. Sunday..............NO JOY

This is an interesting (and contentious) race. I like the 5 as a value play. It is 2nd off a layoff, but showed enough in the first off layoff to indicate that it may run well today. It shortens up to a better distance and seemed to like the turf ok. The favorite, #9, is also 2nd off a layoff, but had a much harder race. I would look for it to regress a little due to that factor. Finally, there is a "reversal angle" between the 5 and 6 horses. They faced each other last out with the 6 winning the race. The public is certain to overbet this result, making the 5 a better value.

There are several contenders based on numbers alone, but the favorites do look very vulnerable to me. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. If I play the race, I will probably play exactas with the 5 over the 6, 7, 9 and 11.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by Jim F.
Although at TuP the early speedsters usually have an advantage.

Along those lines, here is what I like in the 9th:

6/7-8/1-7-8-10

I think the six has a pace advantage over the favored #7. She really doesn't have to beat much in this field. If I end up playing the race, it would be with a trifecta as indicated above, with a 6/7-8 exacta box (in other words, 6/7-8 and 7-8/6), and also with a win bet on the 6.

[kingfin66]

Nice job. Unfortunately, it went off 2/1 rather than 5/1. It still beats losing which is what my pick did in the 2nd (dead last!).