I miss lamboguy

[Tape Reader]

I miss lamboguy

Unlike some of you people here, I have no idea who he is in real life.

What I do know is that this man was a frequent contributor with good info on many topics.

"Stock trading" is like a ghost town without lamboguy.

Just my opinion,

Tape Reader

[PaceAdvantage]

Ummmm...not for nuttin', but the guy was a like a broken record in the stock trading thread, was he not? If you want lamboguy back in the stock thread, all you have to do is click on the thread and repeat after me:

buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....etc....etc....etc....

[Tape Reader]

Ummmm...not for nuttin', but the guy was a like a broken record in the stock trading thread, was he not? If you want lamboguy back in the stock thread, all you have to do is click on the thread and repeat after me:

buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....etc....etc....etc....

I did. Idid. I did. Thank you lamboguy!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Ummmm...not for nuttin', but the guy was a like a broken record in the stock trading thread, was he not? If you want lamboguy back in the stock thread, all you have to do is click on the thread and repeat after me:

buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....buy gold....etc....etc....etc....

he right...right...right...right...right...etc...etc. ..etc

[racko]

Why did he leave?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Why did he leave?

He thought too many people were giving him crap. I think he should grow some thicker skin and come back, as his gold posts were obviously driving Pace crazy! :)

[Hanover1]

Wasn't he getting into penning something, or am I dreaming?

[PaceAdvantage]

He thought too many people were giving him crap. I think he should grow some thicker skin and come back, as his gold posts were obviously driving Pace crazy! :)They were? If by crazy, you mean by desire for him to keep his gold talk confined to one thread and not work it into every single post he made, even horse racing-related ones? That kind of crazy?

Guilty as charged I suppose...

[Saratoga_Mike]

They were? If by crazy, you mean by desire for him to keep his gold talk confined to one thread and not work it into every single post he made, even horse racing-related ones? That kind of crazy?

Guilty as charged I suppose...

I was just joking with you...I thought the smiley face showed that. Geesh.

[Tom]

Wait until CJ sees this post! :eek:

[Hanover1]

I was just joking with you...I thought the smiley face showed that. Geesh.


Thick skin... :ThmbUp:

[Tape Reader]

We just had the best trading markets in years in gold and stocks this past week. Unfortunately, lamboguy was missing with his insight.

Anyone that thinks that I'm sucking up to lamboguy, knows dick about the markets. This Guy knows his onions. (I have no idea who he is in real life.)

Just my opinion.

P.S. Hey lamboguy, why not come back with and alias?

[PaceAdvantage]

Unless Lamboguy suddenly turned about face and was screaming SELL GOLD before the week began, I'm not quite certain what it is you might have missed about him...

[Tape Reader]

Unless Lamboguy suddenly turned about face and was screaming SELL GOLD before the week began, I'm not quite certain what it is you might have missed about him...

OK, Boss Man, heads or tails?

I say buy gold on Monday.

I'll go long DGP (Gold double long) at 53.39.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, Boss Man, heads or tails?

I say buy gold on Monday.

I'll go long DGP (Gold double long) at 53.39.Ummmm...not sure what you're getting at with this reply. I thought we were talking about Lamboguy. Is he not a perma-bull when it comes to Gold?

He's free to chime in whenever he likes. He wasn't banned you know...

[chickenhead]

I'll flip coins.

greece is going to default. we know this. europe will ring fence whats left as best they can.

we are headed into another recession. qe's are exhausted, original problem remains, debt being worked off. That process takes time. not done yet by a longshot. No US consumer till then. No US consumer, no demand, no growth.

Banks removed foreclosure moratorium this month. Expect housing prices to face downward pressure. In other words, less US consumer. less than no growth.

No gov't stimulus, pickup in foreclosures pushing house prices back down, no expectation of any remedy other than the painful slog of slowly digging out of a consumer debt hole, and Europe facing existential euro zone problems.

It all equals another year or two of deflation, there is no growth in the pipeline, and there aren't any more gov't bullets to push things along. Anywhere.

Amazing to me that people think it logical for gold to go UP, like a rocket, in that situation. Gold is a hedge against currency inflation. Inflation will come someday, but no day soon. Not for a good long while. Gold flat to down 12 months from now.

[chickenhead]

I'll add this one thing -- The two strongest, most in demand financial items that exist are #1. US Treasuries, the thing that gets downgraded and goes up in value, and #2 Gold, the hedge, the inverse of the most in demand instrument. Get your head around that one.

There is no good, safe feeling spot for money. So people dump into treasuries and gold -- and try to wait things out, until consumers reappear and they can feel safe investing in businesses again.

Gold isn't wrong, the thing it's hedging will most certainly and decisively go down in value -- it's just so far out in front of itself it's not even funny.

[turninforhome10]

I'll add this one thing -- The two strongest, most in demand financial items that exist are #1. US Treasuries, the thing that gets downgraded and goes up in value, and #2 Gold, the hedge, the inverse of the most in demand instrument. Get your head around that one.

There is no good, safe feeling spot for money. So people dump into treasuries and gold -- and try to wait things out, until consumers reappear and they can feel safe investing in businesses again.

Gold isn't wrong, the thing it's hedging will most certainly and decisively go down in value -- it's just so far out in front of itself it's not even funny.
Excellent post. Would you say that we are still in a devaluation phase, meaning that more deflation before any inflation?

[chickenhead]

it sure looks that way to me.

[lamboguy]

i guess i owe whatever explanation that i have to people that have listened to me on what has happened to the gold market last week.

just to go back in time a little, gold broke out from $1485, it moved all the way up to $1900. in the middle of that move there was an open gap between $1630-$1670, which got filled on friday. the gold came down off the highs with very fast price destruction which is pretty bullish on anything as long as you combine that with light volumes. we got heavy volume though. the thing about the gold market in 2011 is that there is a large "paper gold" market as compared to 1980 when you either traded physical or comex gold for delivery. what has happened on this decline is more of the paper market being dessimated. partly due to short sale hedgers like myself and a liquidity crisis for those that needed to raise cash to keep their losing positions in other things. the only thing that can stop the price of gold from declining into somewhere near the breakout area now would be the chineese stepping up to the plate and buying the stuff now. when you combine the breakout area in gold with the 200 week moving average at a little over $1100, i doubt that china will take an aggressive stance in buying now. they have to buy, but they can wait as long as they feel like waiting. in the interim the chineese are smack in the middle of the best trade of all time now, they own treasury's which have increased 25% this year alone and are getting interest on their money. since the treasury market is so strong now, i suspect they are going to cut back on their holdings as much as possible without hurting the price that much. they can buy real estate, business's, other currency's and more than likely some amount of gold and rare earth metals.

the bullish case for gold is that there was volume at the highs and markets don't end with upside volume. so those highs will be revisited at some point of time. i always expected a big haircut in gold, but i didn't think it would happen in the $2000 area, i thought in the $3000. the fact that it happened now probably means that eventually gold will go alot higher than i have ever expected myself.

as far as the action that bernanke took, i thought it signaled that he is no longer going to bail out the banks. he is more focused on bailing out the housing market. the problem with that is that if people don't have jobs they can't pay any amount of money at any interest rate. what this country needs now while the rates are low are jobs that produce things. the problem is that workers in this country need more money than the $2 per hour that gets paid in other parts of the world. maybe instead of bailing out banks, they bail out the people that live here. they can do that by a subsidy on jobs created privately. if it cost's a corporation's $2.00 abroad they can pay that here and have the government come up with the difference for people to maintain their living standard. it will cost them alot less than bailing out banks that got nothing but welfare from this country. the banks took the cheap money that the fed lent them and lent it back to the citizens of this country at 10 x the rate they borrowed it for. that is a broken system and i guess bernanke is finally putting an end to that. if a bank doesn't want to take risks to grow this economy, they don't deserve to be open to begin with.

bottom line is i am still bullish on gold, but the possibility that it declines further is still here.

good luck

[PICSIX]

He's Back :) :ThmbUp:

[DJofSD]

As I understand it, the excess cash the banks have that is not being held to meet their capital reserve requirements, is being paid 0.25% by the Fed. This is over $1 trillion dollars that is not being used and is generating a nice profit for the banks without any work or risk.

I got out of metals about a month ago. I am looking to get back in some time between now and the end of the year.

[chickenhead]

very few people talk about them, outside of some well known luminaries, but its so obvious I'm surprised it doesn't get more play -- but we know two things:

A.) Treasuries are in the most massive bubble around.
B.) Treasury values will decline (rates will go up), eventually.

You can short treasuries directly, via inverse funds. It's a much more direct path with less variables at play than something like Gold. I'm still investigating the different options, but there are quite a few.

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Nicholas Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

If you look at the funds they've been absolute widow-makers. They've killed everyone who bought them. i.e. the bubble is so much bigger than anyone expected. And, unlike Gold, they cannot get ahead of themselves. They reflect the treasury bubble as it exists today. Gold has been bid up with future expectations, it is priced ahead of itself.

If you have some patience and some time, and if you like buying things low, especially when they are guaranteed to go higher over time, go buy some inverse treasury funds.

[Tom]

Here is my solution - declare all mortgages and credit card debt cancelled for everyone.

Now the private sector is in good shape, let the business world shake out and see who is left standing.

[turninforhome10]

Here is my solution - declare all mortgages and credit card debt cancelled for everyone.

Now the private sector is in good shape, let the business world shake out and see who is left standing.
:jump:

[offtrack]

Just who would declare this Jubilee, and would it be world wide?

[PaceAdvantage]

Gold down another $90 at the moment...$1,550....

[DJofSD]

I don't know if there is such a thing as a technical indicator for gold being over sold. However, whenever they finally do announce Greece is going to, or, has defaulted, I expect gold to initially fall more then at some point I'm buying some GLD.

Comments?

[gm10]

I'll flip coins.

greece is going to default. we know this. europe will ring fence whats left as best they can.

we are headed into another recession. qe's are exhausted, original problem remains, debt being worked off. That process takes time. not done yet by a longshot. No US consumer till then. No US consumer, no demand, no growth.

Banks removed foreclosure moratorium this month. Expect housing prices to face downward pressure. In other words, less US consumer. less than no growth.

No gov't stimulus, pickup in foreclosures pushing house prices back down, no expectation of any remedy other than the painful slog of slowly digging out of a consumer debt hole, and Europe facing existential euro zone problems.

It all equals another year or two of deflation, there is no growth in the pipeline, and there aren't any more gov't bullets to push things along. Anywhere.

Amazing to me that people think it logical for gold to go UP, like a rocket, in that situation. Gold is a hedge against currency inflation. Inflation will come someday, but no day soon. Not for a good long while. Gold flat to down 12 months from now.

You've forgotten the worst problem. The US economy/finances are probably in worse shape than the european (overall), and instead of having a bad emergency plan, the American approach is to have no plan at all. There are other risks, such as the Chinese real estate bubble bursting, etc.

Gold will not go down much over the next 12-24 months imo.

[PICSIX]

I bought some GLD today based on the following analysis (top blog dated 9/26):

http://wishingwealthblog.com/

[lamboguy]

the average price to dig gold up out of the ground is $1100, add a profit margin of $400 and you have gold at $1500. while the gold price went down the last 2 weeks, retail buying has excellerated like never before. retail buying doesn't mean a bloody thing when you compare it to sovereign buying. china is and will continue to be the missing piece of this puzzle for now. while gold did go down almost 20% from the highs, the chart remains intact on a weekly and monthly. gold today fell to almost the 200 day moving average and the breakout area on the electronic markets, those markets are thinly traded and mean just as little as the paper market does as far as price goes.
the fundemental reason behind this big gold price decline is the selling of paper instruments like gld and swapping into physical metal. open interest in gld has been steadily declining, while the supply of physical metals has been evaporating as well. along with the paper selling came big time selling on the comex for delivery market. they increased margin requirements due to the volitility of this market now and to protect their integrity. all that really means is that leverage power is diminishing, but not necessarily the demand for gold. there have also been rumors that county's like italy, greece, spain and portugal are either selling or being forced to sell their gold. if indeed that is correct, the chineese are the perfect candidates to be the proud owners of their gold. one thing for sure in life, we all know that if you have something that you want to sell, its better for a buyer to be looking for you than for you to be looking for that buyer. the gold that these country's sell never goes to the open market, its always a planned sale. if it comes out a month from now that the chineese purchased the gold for $1500 per ounce, then the price of gold would move up $300 in one day. if its $1200 then you will see a decline. on the otherside of this is that the chineese would be taking their dollars to buy this gold. if the money does not come from the reserves that the chineese have in the IMF, that would put pressure on the dollar. i suspect that if they could use their outside money, the chineese would not really care what they spend to buy this gold as long as they are allowed to get rid of united states dollars.
a few weeks ago, the county austria has limited its citizens to purchase no more than 10 ounces of gold a year. but they can buy all the gld their hearts desire. the same thing is going to happen in the good old USA in my opinion, along with bank holliday's and all sorts of things that one could never imagine.
the backbone of this financial system is a complete mess, along with the leaders and would be prospects here. the federal reserve chairman here has some kind of a plan that he is not sharing with us now.

[DJofSD]

Note of interest: on today's FM, Joe said the trade was not gold but silver.

[lamboguy]

Note of interest: on today's FM, Joe said the trade was not gold but silver.
i would agree except that the chart of silver is broken right now, and gold is just in a range. the way they are raising margin requirements they are expecting some wild rides in all the metals, so now that i look at it, silver is less than $2.00 from being in the range. so maybe the guy is right. i know you are talking about fast money, i don't watch the show so i don't know who joe is.

personally, i never sell physical metal's unless i don't have anything left in the kiddy. i do short the gld at times. during this last selloff, i captured almost $50 of the $300 downward move in gold. thats pretty good when you consider i was never short overnight.

[DJofSD]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27824410/

[PICSIX]

Note of interest: on today's FM, Joe said the trade was not gold but silver.

Look out with silver! Here's why:

http://wishingwealthblog.com/

[proximity]

personally, i never sell physical metal's unless i don't have anything left in the kiddy. .

i know i'm not your favorite p.a. poster, but where do you usually buy your bullion??

[lamboguy]

the hedge fund that paulson runs has lost about 20%. his largest holding is the GLD. his GLD is in a huge winning position right now. all his holdings are public knowledge. other hedgefunds see the same thing as the public and often times act before a big hedge fund like paulson's fund. they anticipate what he is going to do. paulson is the largest holder of GLD, he owns just under 8% of it. not only do those other funds sell, they often short. that will put pressure on the GLD and should convert over to the actual metal itself. bottom line is if he sells gld gold and silver go down. he is to big a fund not to pay attention to it now, he has lost billions in it lately from bad moves. the only way it doesn't is if china comes in and buys. if the GLD takes out $154, look out below, gold could fall an aditional $300.

while no one entity is bigger than the market, it can have short term pressure on anything up or down.

[ceejay]

if the GLD takes out $154, look out below, gold could fall an aditional $300.

Are you saying the derivative is driving the commodity?

[lamboguy]

Are you saying the derivative is driving the commodity?
good question! i am just saying that it is capable of putting short term pressure on it. its a whole different world when you have a piece of paper that represents gold these days. this paper represents a larger supply of gold than there actually is in the world.

i have no idea how to answer your question correctly. i really don't. what i am trying to do is make you aware of the possibilities that do exist the way that i see them. if GLD did not exist today you might see some crazy gold price now. presssure on gold will eventually put pressure on gold minors, that much i am very sure of.
like greenspan said before he quit, markets have '"IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR". so things that don't make sense have a possibility of happening at any time. eventually the dollar price of gold will go alot higher than what it is today, now finding the floor for it has become more difficult with all these cross-currents going on now.

[LottaKash]

good question! like greenspan said before he quit, markets have '"IRRATIONAL BEHAVIOR". so things that don't make sense have a possibility of happening at any time.

.
Perhaps, the "Black Swan" is due to arrive any day now....:eek:

best,

[racko]

What happened to TRE?

[DJofSD]

Not sure what you mean by 'what happened' but I found this from Yahoo finance: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/canada-extends-trading-ban-on-sino-forest/?partner=yahoofinance

[lamboguy]

i think that the poster meant TANZANIAN ROYALTY, which used to have the ticker symbol TRE, its now TRX ON THE AMEX EXCHANGE

[cj]

Wait until CJ sees this post! :eek:

Sometimes you have to keep the boss in line!

[Robert Goren]

.
Perhaps, the "Black Swan" is due to arrive any day now....:eek:

best, Or least the guy who wrote The Black Swan.;)

[LottaKash]

Some excerpts from Ron Paul's..."Why the Governments Hate Gold"
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul675.html




This past week several emerging and ongoing crises took attention away from the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Greece. The bailouts are merely kicking the can down the road and making things worse for taxpaying citizens, here and abroad. Greece is unfortunately not unique in its irresponsible spending habits. Greek-style debt explosions are quickly spreading to other nations one by one, and yes, the United States is one of the dominoes on down the line....Ron Paul...

As governments and central banks continue the cycle of spending and inflating, the purchasing power of their currencies is constantly being degraded. These currencies are what the people are working for and saving. This inflation guts the savings and earnings of the people, who have very limited options for protecting themselves against these ravages

. One option is to convert their fiat currency into something out of reach of central banks and government spending, such as gold or silver....Ron Paul...



The people who run the printing presses have trouble shutting them off. In order to limit one's exposure to this reckless behavior, it is wise to exchange unsound assets for sound ones...Ron Paul



As the foundation of their power, their fiat currency, is rejected or avoided, government power is compromised. Fiat currencies trade the people's freedom and security for the government's freedom to squander the wealth of the nation on wasteful pet programs, wars, and corruption. This is why the freedom of the people is so intertwined with a sound monetary unit. This is also why the founders liked gold and silver, and supporters of big government hate them.....Ron Paul...

[PaceAdvantage]

.
Perhaps, the "Black Swan" is due to arrive any day now....:eek:

best,It's not a black swan if you're expecting it...

[LottaKash]

It's not a black swan if you're expecting it...

I get your drift Bossman....:cool: ....Therein lies the rub....It will be, "Especially" for those average Joes, with blinkers on, who remain clueless, and who trusts way too much these days....

best,

[lamboguy]

this silver play is very intersesting. right now the use for gold is over 50% as a currency and the rest for jewelry, while silver has big time uses along with a possible currency factor that does not exist today. right now there is a silver surplus above ground. its about a 6 month surplus. the uses for silver industrially are for water, food, and energy. water purification vehicle, processing of food which is better than plastic and preserves the food better, solar panels, lap tops, television screens. as long as they push solar energy good or bad, its going to create shortages in silver. add this all together with gold in high demand, silver will move even more. bottom line here, no matter what state the economy is in or going to be there is always going to be a big demand for the silver. if gold gets dragged down, silver will not go down as far going forward. a year from now i expect silver to be over $55 per ounce. last week the silver traded as low as $26, the breakout area was $22, that is pretty close and might have been the test of the breakout. while paying $26 is alot better than paying the thirty that we are today i really think that $26 is the bottom, you could get another chance to get in a little below where the price is now. i would consider myself wrong if silver falls below $22.00. so you are not playing this silver game with your back up against the wall and limitied downside risk.

as far as gold today, it looks like it needs some time to wear you out now before it climbs higher. there will be a ton of backwards and forwards, testing and retesting, before you can possibly get to new highs. there is nothing solid about this trading range right now and the top has fallen out of the range for now. a break above $1710 will more than likely get you $1780. a break below $1580 will more than likely get you $1480. those look like the parameters to me. as far as gold equity's, they have performed great in the face of this gold consolidation. gold went down almost 20% while newmont mining didn't go down 5%. some equities like royalty company's got smashed because they trade lock step with the price of gold itself. ROYAL GOLD---RGLD went from a high of $82 down to $64 which went down more than the gold did. if you play paper gold i prefer RGLD to GLD because it does reflect gold price and if you are a long term holder you are taxed at long term gains, with gold itself its always treated as earned income no matter how long you hold it for. GLD is treated exactly like physical gold when it comes time to pay your taxes, and there is a constant management fee built into it. another good royalty company is FRANCO NEVADA. on the riskier side of things and if you want to believe the legend JAMES SINCLAIR, TRX is your baby. mr. sinclair claims his stock will be $50 someday. his company is based in tanzania and i have watched other company's based there like GREAT BASIN GOLD underperform other gold mining equity's. that might mean that something is going on in TANZANIA that we don't know about. there is always political risk with all these things on a constant basis. its happened with that CHAVEZ guy in venezuaela with minors there. i just try to make you aware of what might be going on and i certainly am not the know it all in these matters.