2012 KY Derby Futures

[horses4courses]

John Avello at Wynn's opens KY Derby futures book:


http://www.scribd.com/doc/64429718/wynnsept9derby

[Robert Fischer]

John Avello at Wynn's opens KY Derby futures book:


http://www.scribd.com/doc/64429718/wynnsept9derby

any good ones ?

[horses4courses]

any good ones ?

It's too early for me to get involved in Derby futures. I seldom do, anyway.
However, there are people out there who may want to take a flyer at this stage.
Especially, if you're going to LV, or know someone who is.

When the odds (in most cases) are 200-1+, it's tempting to put down a benjy, or two, to make a score.
They won't give you too much before lowering the odds, but they ought to lay your bet to win at least $50k, imo.

Good luck to those who give it a try!

[PhantomOnTour]

There's a good chance that the 2012 Derby winner hasn't even made his/her debut yet.
This is a BAD BET unless (as the above poster said) you are getting huge huge huge odds.

[Robert Fischer]

There's a good chance that the 2012 Derby winner hasn't even made his/her debut yet.
This is a BAD BET unless (as the above poster said) you are getting huge huge huge odds.

well i wouldn't bet against a 2yo that keeps moving forward either...

do tend to like those brought along slowly enough.

[Robert Fischer]

Elpadrino , 2nd to B Shanny was decent for 250-1

the 4th horse in that race wasn't terrible either but there were a few late bolts from several horses.

alpha looks solid as do most of the 50-1's

[classhandicapper]

This is a BAD BET unless (as the above poster said) you are getting huge huge huge odds.

I'm not even sure how I would go about valuing something like that when the race is so far away.

You'd have to have some kind of line on most of the horses from the crop that could theoretically win, the probability of the horse you like remaining sound and making the race, the probability of him developing enough from where he is now to become a major contender, and then the probability of him winning if he was sound and developed. That sounds like a large and very difficult to ascertain number. Either that or you could just take a horse that you know is a lot better than he looks on paper currently because of a bias, trip etc... and just hope/assume it's not built into the odds.

[BlinkersOn]

Drill is on my radar. He still has a lot to learn, but he's coming around nicely. If he stays healthy I think he is going to be one I'll be paying a lot of attention too.

[overthehill]

Secret Circle's last race was just ridiculous. I think he will be odds on in the breeders cup sprint and if he can route , everyone else may be running for second money on that first saturday in may. I have been watching races since 1977, and I would say this was amongst the most impressive sprints I have seen by any horse of any age. I think he would have given seattle slew a run for his money in a sprint. ridden out in 108.27

[jognlope]

Union Rags, hope he wins either BC juvenile or K. Derby, Matz trained. Is 3 for 3 wins now.