Don't you just love.....

[sq764]

...when you decide to play a little Hoosier and focus on a few longshot horses that catch your eye..

And through 5 races, you see these winners:


Race: 1 Win Place Show
1st 10 HOOSIER PAW 5.60 3.40 2.60
2nd 8 POKEMON JO 3.60 2.80
3rd 3 CHASNICK 2.80
4th 5 FIGHTER RAY
$2 Exacta 10-8 26.60
$2 Trifecta 10-8-3 118.00
$2 Superfecta 10-8-3-5 901.80
Refunds: 2

Race: 2 Win Place Show
1st 4 ONE LITTLE WORD 8.80 4.00 3.60
2nd 5 PROSPECTOR'S GREEN 3.60 3.00
3rd 3 REALLY SUMPTIN 6.00
4th 2 FURNITURE MAN
$2 D/Double 10/4 26.20
$2 Exacta 4-5 24.20
$2 Trifecta 4-5-3 228.20
$2 Superfecta 4-5-3-2 513.40
Refunds: None

Race: 3 Win Place Show
1st 1 CART'S CUTIE 2.40 2.20 2.10
2nd 8 BOP SHE BOP 4.40 2.20
3rd 9 SHAKE THECHAMPAGNE 2.10
4th 10 CLIPPER CAT
$2 Exacta 1-8 15.00
$2 Trifecta 1-8-9 43.40
$2 Superfecta 1-8-9-10 387.80
Refunds: 3
$2 Pick 3 2,10/4/1,3 3 of 3 49.80

Race: 4 Win Place Show
1st 10 DIPLOMATIC LADY 3.60 2.20 2.10
2nd 6 APOLLONEA 2.60 2.40
3rd 4 LEANNE'S SHADOW 3.00
4th 9 LONGWOOD LADY
$2 Exacta 10-6 10.40
$2 Trifecta 10-6-4 56.00
$2 Superfecta 10-6-4-9 349.80
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 4/1,3/10 3 of 3 37.20
$2 Pick 4 2,10/4/1,3/10 4 of 4 82.40

Race: 5 Win Place Show
1st 7 CARSON SILVER 3.20 2.40 2.10
2nd 3 FASHION DIAMOND 4.40 2.20
3rd 1 ZAYLA'S FIRE 2.60
4th 4 YOUOWEMEONE
$2 Exacta 7-3 11.00
$2 Trifecta 7-3-1 76.20
Refunds: None
$2 Pick 3 1,3/10/7 3 of 3 14.40

[Buddha]

Yea, that is about the worst feeling. Liking some shots, and thinking the chalk won't hold out, and then you are stuck with losing tickets. Has happened to me numerous times at the Mountain.

[sq764]

I think 1 horse won over $10... depressing.

Cannot wait for Turfway in the winter again. I remember one night where there were 6 horses that paid $60+ to win

[andicap]

Are there such a thing as "longshot" tracks and "chalk" tracks or does it just seem that way?
Do the odds trends hold up. HTR's Rick posts the "best" longshot tracks at the site, but I'm wondering if -- like much DB modeling -- the trends disappear as soon as you recognize them. Or how much of the feeling is just anecdotal, not statistical?

In other words, HOO was chalky the other night -- is it just as likely it will bounce back and eliciit many longshots next time OR are some tracks like the trotters and inside info/predictability (like early speed always winning, etc.)
result in favorites/low prices winning an ordinate amount of time in the long-run?

[sq764]

I have never seen Turfway have a chalky night.

I think there are a couple of considerations that would cause a track or meet to be particularly chocked with higher priced winners.

Personally, I think Turfway has them all the time bacause of

1) Nice big fields
2) The weather
3) Shippers from all over
4) Track condition - it seems to be muddy as hell or snowing every day I watch there..

[Valuist]

Turfway in September can sometimes be chalky. But for the Dec-April meet, you get the freezing weather and they add extra sand and chemicals to the track to keep it from freezing. TP is the classic horse-for course track, and you usually see insane biases in the winter; either all speed on the rail, or days when no horse can win unless its at least in the 4 path. They also tend to gap-out big. Many runaway winners there, esp. when the rail is good.