Morning Line Up or Down

[Pell Mell]

A stat that I would really like to know is: What % of all winners are bet down from their ML odds. It would also be nice if it were broken down as to the % in each type of race.

[misscashalot]

A stat that I would really like to know is: What % of all winners are bet down from their ML odds. It would also be nice if it were broken down as to the % in each type of race.


65% runners are bet down
65% winners bet down

50% 2nd place finishers bet down

[Elliott Sidewater]

I looked at this a couple of years back and my results were similar - 61% of winners had final odds below their morning line odds

[Pell Mell]

Just from my own observations I actually thought the % would be higher...I sit and watch races many a night and notice at tracks like PEN and EVD it seems like almost every winner is bet down...many times I'll see 3 horses in a race bet down and they run 1-2-3

Do you think the % would be higher if races were broken down into their different catagories?
I was considering restricting my bets to those that are bet down but got cold feet when I watched one I liked that was 8/1 ML score @ 15/1. I suppose passing some big ones would be worth it if the % of bet downs winning were higher...don't think it would be worth passing up some big ones with the % at 60-65
I guess I would have to see a breakdown of the different types of races. :confused:

[Pell Mell]

It seems to me that this would be a very valuable stat if broken down..much more so than the % of winning favorites...I don't understand the lack of interest. :confused:

[Tape Reader]

It seems to me that this would be a very valuable stat if broken down..much more so than the % of winning favorites...I don't understand the lack of interest. :confused:

It's a conspiracy.

[jorcus]

Does this include races with scratches?

I looked at this a couple of years back and my results were similar - 61% of winners had final odds below their morning line odds

[PaceAdvantage]

It's a conspiracy.Yes, I've been deleting all the posts that have appeared in here because they don't contain the phrases "speed and/or pace figures." :lol:

[Elliott Sidewater]

yes, it includes races with scratches. I took a stack of old programs and did a simple count of over 400 races, by hand. The morning line never gets adjusted for scratches where I play, so it seemed valid, since that same practice would be carried on in the future.