Another Database Question

[NormanTD]

I just got the latest RPM/Dave Powers brochure for their system of the month, System 17. Supposedly, this has been run through a 522,000 race database (5.5 years worth) and sports a:

32.3% win rate and 36% ROI
48.9 % place rate no roi given
36.7% exacta rate and 41% roi
23.1% trifecta rate and 44% roi
29.2% pick 3 rate and 28% roi
39.3% daily double rate and 22% roi

I'm not asking about System 17 specificially but can one of the database experts out here tell me if this is really possible? If you are a databaser, have you ever found anything that is totally mechanical that would produce anything like a consistant 36% roi? Or anything that even produced a 20% roi for that matter?

[GR1@HTR]

No, I get the powers brochure as well. Impossible claim IMO.

[NormanTD]

Thanks GR1, that's sort of my feeling also. Heaven knows I would never buy anything like this. (heaven knows I've probably already bought it somewhere in the past)

However my question was directed toward the databaser's and what kind of plays they have discovered. Basically is 35% wins and 20% roi really possible with any sort of mechanical system?

[GR1@HTR]

Norm, I have a dB...But you can hit 35% winners and 1.20 ROI with a mechanical system. But not betting every race. You might find something like that but you might only have a play on something like 1/20 or 1/50 races. Just not every race...

[NoDayJob]

522,000 race database (5.5 years worth)

Some thing's wrong here. More like a 10 year database if the numbers are correct. -NDJ

[Dick Schmidt]

I recently purchased a book from GBC called something like "The Best 52" (sorry, it was a gift and I gave it away) Anyway, in it the author tested many systems (5,500 race database) and then wrote a book about the best 52 (or 48 or whatever number it was). Between a third and half of the systems were from RPM and though some of them "showed promise" or "had some interesting ideas", none of them came close to the advertised results. The vast majority showed a loss.

However, the system you mention wasn't one of those tested, so maybe miracles do happen.

Dick

[PaceGuy]

Using a database, I have been able to find horses that have up to a 36 percent win rate and a 20% plus roi. But the play types I have been able to identify that fit this kind of description (very high win percentage with positive roi) all have one very serious drawback. They are very few and far between. You can play them- but to do it, you have to be extremely disciplined in your approach.

Generally, only about 1.5 races per card will even offer such a horse that might qualify as a bet. And from these, only about one in 15 actually goes to post with odds long enough to qualify as a bet. That means that you only get to make a bet once during every 90 to 100 races that you look at. Factor in a 36 percent win rate and you only get to cash a winning ticket once out of every 250-280 races that you will look at. This means that if you go to the track or OTB every day and look at 5 racing cards per day, you will make only 15 to 20 bets per month on average. From these, you will catch 5 to 8 winners on average.

Most, if not all, players require a lot more action than that. But, if you can muster the patience and discipline to play exclusively these types of horses, you can get your 20% roi and 36% win rate.

I've tried it at times. But I'll be the first to admit that I just don't have the patience for it. I'm not the kind of person who can sit through 12 to 16 hours of simulcast races over a two day period just to make a single bet.

Think about it for a minute. If anyone could develop a system the would generate a 44% ROI on TRI's. Why in the world would you ever sell it to anyone? The only thing better would be to print your own money.

And if you had a single sytem that works like any of the calims made then why would you fool with the other 5?

[NormanTD]

Thanks guys. This was the sort of info I was looking for.

- Norm

[alyingthief]

well, admittedly the claim is dubious, but the replies added here are even more so. "I think", "gee, i dont believe", "i wouldnt think the database that large"--this is all marvelous science, friends, but truth is not a kind of a gallup poll, where everybody opines, and biases, but nobody really has the least idea. after the composite of these naysayers is offered, the reader nods too. i'm nodding, absolutely, i'm convinced. norm's convinced. hey, norm, a suggestion? do a test run on a few races yourself, and see if there's promise there. formulae exist to tell you the minimum number of trials, at a given win rate and roi, required to validate a wagering proposition. (and at 40+ roi/36% winners, it isn't many, either--see Mitchell's book, commonsense wagering). what's good about doing that? after doing it for thirty or forty systems, you'll get some good ideas (a), tire of testing crap like that anyway (b), and, the best for last, (c) deliver yourself from ever having to ask other folks to do for you only what you CAN do for yourself.

[Topcat]

Dave Powers, AKA Clint Tracy is getting wilder in his claims every day. It's too bad- he used to offer material that was a cut above without too much hype.

I can't address his "system 17" with any fact based information but just review his latest offerings.
The biggest dilemma is which system should you try-profits are everywhere, not jsut small grinding out sort of profits but big, Really BIG profits. And you're not going to have to spend a lot of time working at it or handicapping. If you believe the promotional literate you should be playing close to a dozen of Power's offerings at the same time and whizzing right past Bill Gates on the list of the world;s wealthiest.

There's definetly a credibility problem here.