Figure these out!

[Capper Al]

This thread is solely for sharing the worst handicapable races one can find. Today I found Race #6 at Monmouth Park:

1 1/16 Miles Turf Purse $18,000 Maiden Claiming $25,000

These horses have pretty much been locked up in the barn for the last 30 days without any workouts or races. Who's in shape? And besides this, it will probably rain.

My selections (doesn't mean I'll bet them) are 9-8-6-3.

Good Luck.

[gm10]

I think I'd take Ravello Storm @ 6/1. Dirt to turf, stretching out after two sprints where he showed decent middle/late speed.

[DJofSD]

Looking at the PPs, this is a race I normally would not touch with a ten foot pole.

However, if I need to play it as a part of a horizontal bet, a paddock inspection is called for, if that fits into the wagering structure, i.e. 1st half of double which is applicable to this race. What horses are automatic tosses, which ones look good -- well groomed, bright-eyed, on their toes, etc., and which ones might show more once they're warming up.

I like: :5: Concorde County, :8: Scarppare, :13: Doodleman (if he draws in).

:1: Some grass breeding but so far has not shown an affinity for it.

:2: S->R; D->T;drop in claming price; why the 3 week gap in the work out tab? Pass.

:3: Pletcher charge, dropping and stretching; again, a 3 week gap in the training. Pass. Likely a short price -- if he beats me, oh well.

:4: 2nd start with 1st similar to todays. Well intended last out? Note the trouble line. Tote the tab.

:5: Speed that could never look back; dropping; willing to overlook last race finish; coupled entry favorite 2nd back.

:6: Among friends but find little to entice or disway.

:7: FTS; BOT; regular works but with a gap; cheap fee but with noted sires on top and bottom; show me one, first; pass.

:8: Rounding into form; works OK since last race; bottomline SPI OK; on paper, a contender.

:9: Blinks on; BOT; NOT; smells like move out of desparation.

:10: Didn't get the desired surface last out; tossing last out, find little to recommend; pass.

:11: Violates maiden rule; toss;

:12: 1 work since last race; outside post today; getting same jock as 2nd start where it finished ITM; could repeat that race today but outside post will be tought to overcome; take a stand against for today; tab for later.

:13: Lot to like; jock to clear field out of gate? trouble lines indicates willingness to contend; looks competitive at this level; contender.

:14: MTO - pass.

[Capper Al]

Looking at the PPs, this is a race I normally would not touch with a ten foot pole.

However, if I need to play it as a part of a horizontal bet, a paddock inspection is called for, if that fits into the wagering structure, i.e. 1st half of double which is applicable to this race. What horses are automatic tosses, which ones look good -- well groomed, bright-eyed, on their toes, etc., and which ones might show more once they're warming up.

I like: :5: Concorde County, :8: Scarppare, :13: Doodleman (if he draws in).

:1: Some grass breeding but so far has not shown an affinity for it.

:2: S->R; D->T;drop in claming price; why the 3 week gap in the work out tab? Pass.

:3: Pletcher charge, dropping and stretching; again, a 3 week gap in the training. Pass. Likely a short price -- if he beats me, oh well.

:4: 2nd start with 1st similar to todays. Well intended last out? Note the trouble line. Tote the tab.

:5: Speed that could never look back; dropping; willing to overlook last race finish; coupled entry favorite 2nd back.

:6: Among friends but find little to entice or disway.

:7: FTS; BOT; regular works but with a gap; cheap fee but with noted sires on top and bottom; show me one, first; pass.

:8: Rounding into form; works OK since last race; bottomline SPI OK; on paper, a contender.

:9: Blinks on; BOT; NOT; smells like move out of desparation.

:10: Didn't get the desired surface last out; tossing last out, find little to recommend; pass.

:11: Violates maiden rule; toss;

:12: 1 work since last race; outside post today; getting same jock as 2nd start where it finished ITM; could repeat that race today but outside post will be tought to overcome; take a stand against for today; tab for later.

:13: Lot to like; jock to clear field out of gate? trouble lines indicates willingness to contend; looks competitive at this level; contender.

:14: MTO - pass.

Thanks. Some of your appreviations I don't know -- BOT, MTO and NOT

[DJofSD]

Breeder, owner, trainer.

Main track only.

Never on turf.

[OverlayHunter]

Capper Al - great idea for a thread. Thanks, I'm in computer hell right now but hope to contribute when I come up for air.

DJofSD - thanks for the well thought out ideas.

[riskman]

Desperation it probably is for # 6 Raging Rozea who gets the Plesa barn and exits maiden special weight company. Off 153 days with weak wo pattern but Elvis is up and and Al did a good job of picking a crummy race.

[Capper Al]

Most of the field scratched due to off turf. #9 is looking better with the jockey change. After scratches my selections are now 9-3-5-14. The #11 has some good numbers but has been in the barn too long.

[DJofSD]

OK, thanks for the update. Good luck.

[Capper Al]

MONMOUTH PARK R6 RESULTS

1st 9-Alke John $7.40 $4.60 $2.60
2nd 11-Key To The Empire - $6.20 $3.40
3rd 5-Concorde County - - $4.00
4th 14-Avaras

The #11 did better than I thought.

[castaway01]

MONMOUTH PARK R6 RESULTS

1st 9-Alke John $7.40 $4.60 $2.60
2nd 11-Key To The Empire - $6.20 $3.40
3rd 5-Concorde County - - $4.00
4th 14-Avaras

The #11 did better than I thought.

See, it wasn't as hard as you thought---you called the winner!

[Capper Al]

See, it wasn't as hard as you thought---you called the winner!

All the scratches helped.

[Capper Al]

Hope others contribute to this thread. The idea is for crummy races. You can't figure them by Speed or Class or Pace etc. Share your challenge with us.

[Tom]

Evd tonight - Race 8
Swinging for the fences here -

:9: HTR non-pace velocity factors/excellent workout rating
:1a: Superior closer in weak field, turf to dirt, horrible last race
:13: HTR non pace velocity factors

Race is rated as weak and the fav is suspect

[Tom]

Evd tonight - Race 8
Swinging for the fences here -

:9: HTR non-pace velocity factors/excellent workout rating
:1a: Superior closer in weak field, turf to dirt, horrible last race
:13: HTR non pace velocity factors

Race is rated as weak and the fav is suspect

Yessss. Thanks, Al.....I never would have looked for this race.
Missed the X but got the WP bet.

[Capper Al]

Evd tonight - Race 8
Swinging for the fences here -

:9: HTR non-pace velocity factors/excellent workout rating
:1a: Superior closer in weak field, turf to dirt, horrible last race
:13: HTR non pace velocity factors

Race is rated as weak and the fav is suspect

Sorry I missed this post. I was out counting all my money from Monmouth. Glad to see that you hit some of it. It looked like a good example of a crummy race for this thread.

[Capper Al]

Race 1:

10-9-5

Race 3:

1-7-8

A pair of Maiden Claimers. I'm thinking to judge them more on performance than potential since it's late in the year.