Help...best or worst "angle" that helps or hurts your bottom line?

[sammy the sage]

for me..."Lone" speed going longer...going shorter...auto play...w/some nice pay-offs...

But going longer...j/geez...can NEVER get it right...if I bet it...it loses...if I don't...guaranteed winner...over and over AGAIN...

The Belmont w/Da'Tara is/was the worst...but even today...absolutely NO clue on this angle...

Can anybody help...

Or better yet...do you HAVE an angle that helps or hurts?

[Ocala Mike]

Second-time starters in maiden races. Look for excuses, comments indicating ran greenly, well-bet firsters who disappointed, drop-downs, etc.


Ocala Mike

[Ocala Mike]

See today's 1st at CRC, SUGARTIME JAZZ and today's 6th at BEL, JUSBHONORABLE. First one was an underlaid $6.00 winner, while the second one was an overlay that ran 2nd, and completed a $102.50 exacta with the second choice.


Ocala Mike

[Tom]

Third off a layoff with some positves.....back figures, showed life in second back, improved early speed, dropping today, ride switch.....lots of good prices third back.

[point given]

I pay alot more attention to turnbacks after Calebs Posse at Saratoga especially for 7 F races where pure speed tires and also to play under in exactas.for 6F.

[turninforhome10]

Speed early, fade late same high % rider rides back. My reasoning is that when a smart jock knows his mount is getting leg weary, he makes it look good for the stewards but raps and saves for next out. Like this angle even more when it is the first time a horse is going long after fading or second off a layoff. Class and trainer are very important for this angle.

[Tom]

And this oldie but goodie......

[turninforhome10]

And this oldie but goodie......
Pink squirrel about 1 hour before the race. They will sleep like a baby only to wake up in the starting gate and run like a stuck hog and cool out better than ever.

[turninforhome10]

Pink squirrel about 1 hour before the race. They will sleep like a baby only to wake up in the starting gate and run like a stuck hog and cool out better than ever.
I do not condone medical enhancement in racing, The last statement was a half hearted attempt at humor and I will try and stick to the thread.
I look at overnights rather than entries. I spent three weeks working three years for one of the better jock agents who used to burn a book in the midwest and overnights can sometimes yield different info than a entries sheet.
For instance
If you look at 9/11 TP 7th race.
Entry sheet
Turfway Park - September 11, 2011

Race 7 - 4:04 PM Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double

CLAIMING $8,000 – $7,000

Purse $10,000. For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 119 Lbs.; Older, 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a race since August 11 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $8,000, if for $7,000, allowed 1 lb. (Races where entered for $6,250 or less not considered). Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Sassy Citizen (KY) 5/M LA $8,000 F A Arguello, Jr. 119 J G Cook 4/1
2 2 Northeast Harbor (KY) 5/M L $8,000 R Morales 1127 J Warring 5/1
3 3 Country Shawklit (KY) 7/M L $7,000 A Sanchez III 118 L E Boggess 30/1
4 4 Bold Tap (KY) 4/F L $7,000 J McKee 118 W R Connelly 9/5
5 5 Sakra (KY) 4/F LA $7,000 T L Pompell 118 R G Brown 7/2
6 6 Just Banannie (KY) 4/F L $8,000 M G Adam 119 B J Riley 5/2

Owners: 1 - Media Thoroughbred Group (Lisa Roedemeier); 2 - Jeff Warring; 3 - Lawrence E. Boggess; 4 - Thomas F. Lenihan, Raymond Weis and Rick Kerr; 5 - Ronald G. Brown; 6 - M Y Stables, Inc. (Ron McKay)

Breeders: 1 - R. J. Winkler & Al Mazzetti; 2 - Hermitage Farm LLC; 3 - Bernard Vertuca & Michelle Vertuca; 4 - Thomas F. Lenihan; 5 - EMF Broodmares; 6 - South River Ranch Inc


Overnight

7th RACE. (CX8) Post 4:04PM Claiming $8,000-$7,000
PURSE $10,000 5 1/2 Furlongs
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
1 SASSY CITIZEN (LA) '06 M $8,000 119 McKee, J Media Thoroughbred Group Cook, J
2 NORTHEAST HARBOR (L) '06 M $8,000 **112 Morales, R Warring, J Warring, J
3 COUNTRY SHAWKLIT (L) '04 M $7,000 118 Sanchez III, A Boggess, L Boggess, L
4 BOLD TAP (L) '07 F $7,000 E0 118 McKee, J Lenihan, Thomas F., Weis, Raymond and Kerr, Rick Connelly, W
5 SAKRA (LA) '07 F $7,000 118 Pompell, T Brown, R Brown, R
6 JUST BANANNIE (L) '07 F $8,000 119 Adam, M M. Y. Stables, Inc. Riley,


Notice anything special about the difference.

1st thing I notice is that it is an extra race meaning that it was not in the condition book. Somebody needs this race to go. It is a wide open 10k and a very small field
Next book race for wide open f\m 10k going short is 9/22.
Last book race 9/8 TP 6th race was 10k f/m short and went with 9

2nd thing Mckee has double call on overnight, Arguello rides the :1: on the entry sheet McKee rides :4: the 9/5 shot
Good Cappin

[turninforhome10]

I do not condone medical enhancement in racing, The last statement was a half hearted attempt at humor and I will try and stick to the thread.
I look at overnights rather than entries. I spent three weeks working three years for one of the better jock agents who used to burn a book in the midwest and overnights can sometimes yield different info than a entries sheet.
For instance
If you look at 9/11 TP 7th race.
Entry sheet
Turfway Park - September 11, 2011

Race 7 - 4:04 PM Exacta / Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Daily Double

CLAIMING $8,000 – $7,000

Purse $10,000. For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 119 Lbs.; Older, 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a race since August 11 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $8,000, if for $7,000, allowed 1 lb. (Races where entered for $6,250 or less not considered). Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track)
P# PP Horse Virtual
Stable A/S Med Claim $ Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Sassy Citizen (KY) 5/M LA $8,000 F A Arguello, Jr. 119 J G Cook 4/1
2 2 Northeast Harbor (KY) 5/M L $8,000 R Morales 1127 J Warring 5/1
3 3 Country Shawklit (KY) 7/M L $7,000 A Sanchez III 118 L E Boggess 30/1
4 4 Bold Tap (KY) 4/F L $7,000 J McKee 118 W R Connelly 9/5
5 5 Sakra (KY) 4/F LA $7,000 T L Pompell 118 R G Brown 7/2
6 6 Just Banannie (KY) 4/F L $8,000 M G Adam 119 B J Riley 5/2

Owners: 1 - Media Thoroughbred Group (Lisa Roedemeier); 2 - Jeff Warring; 3 - Lawrence E. Boggess; 4 - Thomas F. Lenihan, Raymond Weis and Rick Kerr; 5 - Ronald G. Brown; 6 - M Y Stables, Inc. (Ron McKay)

Breeders: 1 - R. J. Winkler & Al Mazzetti; 2 - Hermitage Farm LLC; 3 - Bernard Vertuca & Michelle Vertuca; 4 - Thomas F. Lenihan; 5 - EMF Broodmares; 6 - South River Ranch Inc


Overnight

7th RACE. (CX8) Post 4:04PM Claiming $8,000-$7,000
PURSE $10,000 5 1/2 Furlongs
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
1 SASSY CITIZEN (LA) '06 M $8,000 119 McKee, J Media Thoroughbred Group Cook, J
2 NORTHEAST HARBOR (L) '06 M $8,000 **112 Morales, R Warring, J Warring, J
3 COUNTRY SHAWKLIT (L) '04 M $7,000 118 Sanchez III, A Boggess, L Boggess, L
4 BOLD TAP (L) '07 F $7,000 E0 118 McKee, J Lenihan, Thomas F., Weis, Raymond and Kerr, Rick Connelly, W
5 SAKRA (LA) '07 F $7,000 118 Pompell, T Brown, R Brown, R
6 JUST BANANNIE (L) '07 F $8,000 119 Adam, M M. Y. Stables, Inc. Riley,


Notice anything special about the difference.

1st thing I notice is that it is an extra race meaning that it was not in the condition book. Somebody needs this race to go. It is a wide open 10k and a very small field
Next book race for wide open f\m 10k going short is 9/22.
Last book race 9/8 TP 6th race was 10k f/m short and went with 9

2nd thing Mckee has double call on overnight, Arguello rides the :1: on the entry sheet McKee rides :4: the 9/5 shot
Good Cappin

Addendum
I look at higher class values than indicated by the race. I figure this way I find out if there is a difference between 8-10 k for class. The next book race for f/m 7-8k going short is 9/18.
And most of all the 7th race iswide open 7-8k f\m not 10 k
Geez what a bonehead.

[grant miller]

for some reason ,Ikeep betting closers in alot of races and get my but kicked!

[Pell Mell]

for some reason ,Ikeep betting closers in alot of races and get my but kicked!

The short route to the poorhouse!

[RaceBookJoe]

Not sure if this qualifies as an angle, but here goes :

In sprints, I match E horses looking for the "speed of the speed" that i believe will go wire to wire. But the twist i use is when using turn-time as the key indicator, I look for a horse with the best turn-time figure AND did it while either being wide or on a slow track, especially if the horse has the quickest 1/4 fraction in the field. Not sure if this is an angle or just a tie-breaker when looking for a w2w horse. rbj

[mistergee]

RBJ, are you looking at straight turn time with no variant?

[RaceBookJoe]

RBJ, are you looking at straight turn time with no variant?

I do look at the variant after i figure the time. I dont spend a ton of time on it, mainly as a tie breaker. Basically the angle is looking for a "lone speed" w2w winner that might possibly be a bit hidden? rbj

[jasperson]

My bugaboo are strong winning maidens moving up in class. If I bet them they lose and if I throw them out they beat me.

[pondman]

I'm a class handicapper:

I stopped betting claiming races a few years ago, and my ROI shot up.

[LottaKash]

I'm a class handicapper:

I stopped betting claiming races a few years ago, and my ROI shot up.

Same here Pondman.....Except for a time or two, here and there, I don't play claimers much any longer, either....Only when I have a tried and true, "automatic like" angle, will I submit any of my kash into the machine betting on claimers....

My ROI has never been better as well...

I confess tho, that I used to get jealous a bit, when I saw that other players, who were simply crushing claiming races....I mean they relished in them, and they wouldn't have it any other way.....Me, I never got the hang of them enough to claim even moderate success by playing them....I did ok, but never advanced any, and, I was just treading water..It turned out that I had been kidding myself for so many years.....Consequently, since devaluing their importance to me, what I am left with, is a much smaller group of playable races....But that's ok by me, as this leaves me with more time to sharpen my focus on, and spend more time on the races that bring me my greatest success'...

I am a "guerilla" player now....I like being in that place, nowadays....

best,

[PICSIX]

The short route to the poorhouse!

Very very true, but it's so exciting watching your closer make his move passing them one by one getting up in the final strides! Better off to be on the front runner leading the entire way fading, fading, fading and just holding on to the wire....just as exciting! :ThmbUp:

[PICSIX]

for me..."Lone" speed going longer...going shorter...auto play...w/some nice pay-offs...

But going longer...j/geez...can NEVER get it right...if I bet it...it loses...if I don't...guaranteed winner...over and over AGAIN...

The Belmont w/Da'Tara is/was the worst...but even today...absolutely NO clue on this angle...

Can anybody help...

Or better yet...do you HAVE an angle that helps or hurts?

The "ah-ha change" positive. Could be a change(s) in distance, jockey, class, surface, circuit, equipment, medication, work-out (or w.o. pattern), running style, speed figure, etc. The "ah-ha" is really trying to interpret trainer intent and sometimes it looks like a beach ball floating in there for you to knock out of the park. Most of the time, no matter how hard you look, how deep you dig, there are nothing but Nolan Ryan 103 mph fast balls headed at your ass, all damn day, striking you out!!! ;)

[wonatthewire1]

one good one....

2nd off of a lay off with either 1st or 2nd fraction much faster than races run prior to getting a break

[Robert Goren]

This pops up once in a while with young horses in maiden races. The favorite lead most of the way to finish third in its last race and the second or third favorite was the horse who got up to beat the favorites. People are so in love with front runners that they think a horse who quit once won't quit again.It not unusal to 6/5 on the favorite and 3/1 or 7/2 on the other horse.

The biggest money eater is a long shot(9/1or higher)winner in one of its last few races. These house should be automantic cross offs, but somehow I end up on them anyway.

[classhandicapper]

I'm a class handicapper:

I stopped betting claiming races a few years ago, and my ROI shot up.

Class handicapping doesn't seem to work all that well in claimers unless you find a hidden drop in class due to quirky race conditions. Many horses that are dropping in claiming price are doing so because their form is heading in the wrong direction.

IMHO, one of the keys to beating claiming races is finding a horse that you can be highly confident is going to run well because so many them are in and out, up and down etc... I focus on trainer patterns, but I don't find a lot of plays. When I focused on more fundamental handicapping, I did not do too well in claiming races either.

[Robert Fischer]

secrecy has helped a lot

[JustRalph]

for me..."Lone" speed going longer...going shorter...auto play...w/some nice pay-offs...

But going longer...j/geez...can NEVER get it right...if I bet it...it loses...if I don't...guaranteed winner...over and over AGAIN...

The Belmont w/Da'Tara is/was the worst...but even today...absolutely NO clue on this angle...

Can anybody help...

Or better yet...do you HAVE an angle that helps or hurts?

This is very class/pedigree/quality oriented. Maidens are completely different in this area also. I used to lose on these all the time.......now not so much. The database info narrows this down pretty well.