Does Martin Pedroza "Ruin" your Fairplex experience?

[Stillriledup]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.

Pedroza is almost always a huge underlay, but he wins so many times at huge underlays that value seeking bettors are caught between a rock and a hard place.

How can you bet Orbach at 3-5? But, how can you bet against him? The other jocks just move out of the way for Pedroza, its like "Here Martin, you wanna slip up the rail from post 8, be my guest"

No thanks.

[toussaud]

he is the Baze of Fairplex. makes the track unplayable. Not that i would play him if he wasn't there but still.

[thespaah]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.

Pedroza is almost always a huge underlay, but he wins so many times at huge underlays that value seeking bettors are caught between a rock and a hard place.

How can you bet Orbach at 3-5? But, how can you bet against him? The other jocks just move out of the way for Pedroza, its like "Here Martin, you wanna slip up the rail from post 8, be my guest"

No thanks.
See that in the first four races not including the Arabians, Pedroza was on the fav in all four in which he rode. 3rd (1/2), 2nd( even), 2nd. (4/5) 1st (4/5)
Value wise, that cannot be a lot of fun.

[cj]

If he is overbet, that means others have value. Who cares if he beats you an underlay? That happens every day at every track.

[Stillriledup]

If he is overbet, that means others have value. Who cares if he beats you an underlay? That happens every day at every track.

Here's the difference between Pedroza and just any old 'overbet' jockey. Because this is a very short meet, Pedroza rides every race like its the Breeders Cup. He's completely amped up, rides like a bull in a china shop and he's so aggressive to win races at this place, its unlike any other top jockey because of the shortness of the meet and Pedroza's standing in the pecking order in So Cal. He knows he has to 'make hay' at FPX to make his 'year' so he's riding the hair off the cheapies.

When you bet Pedroza at FPX you're going to get a guy riding like its a million dollar race....while all the other jocks are just trying to not get injured and leave the races that day under their own power. That's a huge edge. Maybe by definition, Pedroza is NOT overbet even at 4-5 because you get such razor sharp focus on every mount he takes.

Still, i think that he just ruins the handicapping process because you have to deal with him as not only a huge factor, but the most important factor in handicapping any of the races at this place.

When i handicap, i want to not worry about jocks and just look at horses....you can't do that at this piace.

[freehouse2002]

He was favored in seven or eight races. He won one. I think that produces value especially when any nag he's on gets heavily bet. I personally didn't like any of his horses today, unfortunately I couldn't capitalize.

freehouse2002

[A. Pineda]

This meet is the same as it has always been. Whether it's Mena, Flores, or Pedroza, there is always one jock that dominates by getting the best mounts and riding with confidence. They still blow the first turn, long after it has been rounded out of its egg shape conformation of the past. The challenge is to get just one or two winners, as the value will be there. Today's P5 paid nearly $6,000 because of one longshot, one that I missed, but there's always tomorrow. When the chalk looks solid, have another beer and check on your favorite sports team. There will soon be another opportunity. And, if you put your money on Pedroza, may The Schwartz be with you.

[Stillriledup]

This meet is the same as it has always been. Whether it's Mena, Flores, or Pedroza, there is always one jock that dominates by getting the best mounts and riding with confidence. They still blow the first turn, long after it has been rounded out of its egg shape conformation of the past. The challenge is to get just one or two winners, as the value will be there. Today's P5 paid nearly $6,000 because of one longshot, one that I missed, but there's always tomorrow. When the chalk looks solid, have another beer and check on your favorite sports team. There will soon be another opportunity. And, if you put your money on Pedroza, may The Schwartz be with you.

My point is that if Pedroza is on the favorite, which he seems to be most of the time, the favorite DOES look solid. If Pedroza is riding it, its a solid favorite. Thats why i end up passing the entire meet. He's too much of a distracting force for me.

[BlueShoe]

Does Russell Baze ruin your Golden Gate experience? Might just call Fairplex NorCal Lite. Pedroza or Baze, take your choice.

[Greyfox]

Here's the difference between Pedroza and just any old 'overbet' jockey. Because this is a very short meet, Pedroza rides every race like its the Breeders Cup. He's completely amped up, rides like a bull in a china shop and he's so aggressive to win races at this place,.

All of that for sure.
But the main point is there is an art to riding bullrings.
Pedroza has mastered it.
If other jocks try the same moves that Pedroza does, their mounts run through the outside fences due to the tight turns.
Trainers know he's an expert bullring rider.
They give him "live mounts."
When he returns to the regular So Cal circuit, there are better riders on the mile ovals.

[dansan]

I wish baze would retire

[Stillriledup]

Does Russell Baze ruin your Golden Gate experience? Might just call Fairplex NorCal Lite. Pedroza or Baze, take your choice.

No, and here's why. Because Russell Baze doesnt ride every race like its the Ky Derby. Pedroza at Fairplex, does.

[Stillriledup]

Does Russell Baze ruin your Golden Gate experience? Might just call Fairplex NorCal Lite. Pedroza or Baze, take your choice.

Here's another factor why i don't mind Baze and actually like betting cards and racemeets that he's in and the reason is that there are certain trainers who like to bet and specifically don't use Baze when they have the best horse. Quite often, i'll handicap Nor Cal and feel that Muscle is on the 2nd or 3rd best runner.

At FPX, it almost appears as if Pedroza's jocks agent is sitting in the race office during the draw, they handicap the races, determine who the best horse is and just put Martin on that horse. 90% of the time, Martin Is on the natural favorite, a horse who would be favored with any rider. Trainers of the best horse go out of their way to get Pedroza because they just want to win. In Nor Cal, its not the case, quite often you'll see a top trainer go without Russel, guys like Alvarado, Krigger, Gryder, Hernandez to get a better price on a horse. This seldom happens at Fpx.

Like Greyfox says, Pedroza has mastered this bullring....so, it comes down to this. If you have the best horse in the race and you want to get a price and bet your horse, you can't take a chance to use another jock because Pedroza can just outride your guy on the 2nd best horse and you'l lose trying to get cute to cash a bet and get more than 3.60

In Nor cal, because there's no 'art' to riding that place, you can use Aaron Gryder on the best horse (for example) and even if Russell is riding the 2nd best horse, he's not going to outride your guy, you'll win and get 4.60 instead of 3.60

[BlueShoe]

Fairplex is a unique meet, and ever since I can remember, a jock or jocks will jump up and ride above their usual level and dominate the standings. Heck, can remember when Don Pierce was often leading rider, and this was back when it was still a half miler and just called Pomona. Besides being a top rider on the major circuit, Pierce was known as a strong finisher, yet he rode the bullring to perfection. If Pedroza is on a 3-5 shot that really should be 8-5 that means value elsewhere. Patience, patience, pick your spots carefully. If you do like the jockey angles, look at riders that are on the fringe on the big circuit, but ride Fairplex well and have done well here in the past. One such that comes to mind is Agapito Delgadillo, who doubled Friday.

[KingChas]

Those of us on the east coast are familiar with this also.

"Jersey Joe Bravo" has been destroying the payouts at Monmouth Park for years.

[Charli125]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.


What about their 24% takeout on 2-horse bets and 25% takeout on 3+-horse bets? Higher than the rest of CA because it's a fair. I don't know why any horseplayer would even look at FPX.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.

Pedroza is almost always a huge underlay, but he wins so many times at huge underlays that value seeking bettors are caught between a rock and a hard place.

How can you bet Orbach at 3-5? But, how can you bet against him? The other jocks just move out of the way for Pedroza, its like "Here Martin, you wanna slip up the rail from post 8, be my guest"

No thanks.

So which is it? Is he an underlay, meaning over bet relative to his chances of winning OR does he actually win at a rate that merits the odds? I don't have an informed opinion on him or Cali racing, but your post seems to contradict itself.

I highly doubt your second claim. Please provide five recent examples of jocks moving out of the way for Pedroza, so I can watch the replays. Thanks.

[Saratoga_Mike]

What about their 24% takeout on 2-horse bets and 25% takeout on 3+-horse bets? Higher than the rest of CA because it's a fair. I don't know why any horseplayer would even look at FPX.

Heck, what happened to SRU's "Cali racing is dead to me?"

[Charli125]

Heck, what happened to SRU's "Cali racing is dead to me?"

Ha, that's exactly what I was thinking.

[Stillriledup]

So which is it? Is he an underlay, meaning over bet relative to his chances of winning OR does he actually win at a rate that merits the odds? I don't have an informed opinion on him or Cali racing, but your post seems to contradict itself.

I highly doubt your second claim. Please provide five recent examples of jocks moving out of the way for Pedroza, so I can watch the replays. Thanks.

You just need to watch the entire Fairplex meet and you'll be able to find 5 examples on your very own.

Whether he's an overlay or an underlay, the fact remains that many of his winners pay under 4 dollars....i cant imagine that too many people care if his bevy of 3.60 winners really should have paid 3.55 instead.

[OTM Al]

Heck, what happened to SRU's "Cali racing is dead to me?"

Didn't leave him enough material to complain about....

[BlueShoe]

Okay, MP rode the first ten races today, winning twice. One was a favorite, the other a 2nd choice. He lost aboard several short priced favorites. Hardly what one would call an overpowering day. The race he sat out, the 11th and last, a maiden claimer, was won by a 6 year old first starter bred in Montana that had been training at Dixie Downs. :eek: Pounded at the windows from the start, he won easily as the lukewarm 2-1 favorite. Perhaps Martin heard something earlier and wisely decided to sit the last out? :D

[bcgreg]

Pedroza at FPX 2010:

Factor Plays Winners Win W+P ITM WROI PROI SROI $AvgM High I.V. 09/11/2011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play All 00134 00045 34% 50% 67% 0.81 0.75 0.84 $4.8 $14 2.46

Regards,
bcgreg

[hugh]

If any of you guys hate betting Golden Gate because of the succubus Russell Baze today (and Fri/Sat) is your lucky day.
Baze is taking the weekend off.
Lots of big prices .. at least for the gate ........... hitting the board.
Pretty much all the jockeys are evenly matched... maybe Gryder/Alvarado/Krigger a little better than the rest.
Anyways I can't play it today as I'm going to the Niners season opener vs. the Seahawks.
Go :4::9:ers!

[Saratoga_Mike]

You just need to watch the entire Fairplex meet and you'll be able to find 5 examples on your very own.

Whether he's an overlay or an underlay, the fact remains that many of his winners pay under 4 dollars....i cant imagine that too many people care if his bevy of 3.60 winners really should have paid 3.55 instead.

I'd simply like you to provide three races (I previously requested five, but you produced none) where jocks intentionally created openings for MP. As I said, I'm ignorant about Cali racing, but your claim about jocks creating openings for MP caught my attention. I'll wait for your three examples. Thanks.

[Igeteven]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.

Pedroza is almost always a huge underlay, but he wins so many times at huge underlays that value seeking bettors are caught between a rock and a hard place.

How can you bet Orbach at 3-5? But, how can you bet against him? The other jocks just move out of the way for Pedroza, its like "Here Martin, you wanna slip up the rail from post 8, be my guest"

No thanks.

No, he doesn't , if you know how to use him in a bet.

[Stillriledup]

I'd simply like you to provide three races (I previously requested five, but you produced none) where jocks intentionally created openings for MP. As I said, I'm ignorant about Cali racing, but your claim about jocks creating openings for MP caught my attention. I'll wait for your three examples. Thanks.

Sept 9th Race 5. Pedroza riding Orbach #8, gets in front of the jock riding the 6 horse. The 6 horse just let Pedroza in early in the race on the backstretch, that's one, let me find 2 more.

[dansan]

happens at the gate also with baze cant count how many time the lanes just open up like the parting of the red sea

[Stillriledup]

I'd simply like you to provide three races (I previously requested five, but you produced none) where jocks intentionally created openings for MP. As I said, I'm ignorant about Cali racing, but your claim about jocks creating openings for MP caught my attention. I'll wait for your three examples. Thanks.

Sept 9, 2010. Race 7. Pedroza riding #3. Four furlong race, the leading horse clears off to a 2 length lead on the far turn and then lets Pedroza slip up the inside in the stretch.

[Stillriledup]

I'd simply like you to provide three races (I previously requested five, but you produced none) where jocks intentionally created openings for MP. As I said, I'm ignorant about Cali racing, but your claim about jocks creating openings for MP caught my attention. I'll wait for your three examples. Thanks.

Sept 10th, 2010 Race 6, Pedroza is running 3rd in the far turn and the guy running 2nd lets Martin slip inside of him.

If you watch the races at this place, you'll see this happen on a regular basis. Pedroza 'acing' guys out of spots to save ground and 'slip' inside. Happens a few times a day.

[cj]

Sept 9, 2010. Race 7. Pedroza riding #3. Four furlong race, the leading horse clears off to a 2 length lead on the far turn and then lets Pedroza slip up the inside in the stretch.

I think "let" is a stretch. They are tight turns and not all riders and horses navigate them well.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sept 9th Race 5. Pedroza riding Orbach #8, gets in front of the jock riding the 6 horse. The 6 horse just let Pedroza in early in the race on the backstretch, that's one, let me find 2 more.

Nonsense. The 6 horse sat a great trip and still ran up the track. He wasn't trying to help out anyone on the backstretch.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sept 9, 2010. Race 7. Pedroza riding #3. Four furlong race, the leading horse clears off to a 2 length lead on the far turn and then lets Pedroza slip up the inside in the stretch.

Complete nonsense again - see CJ's comment - then try watching a few thousand races from Charles Town, and you'll understand his comment.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sept 10th, 2010 Race 6, Pedroza is running 3rd in the far turn and the guy running 2nd lets Martin slip inside of him.

If you watch the races at this place, you'll see this happen on a regular basis. Pedroza 'acing' guys out of spots to save ground and 'slip' inside. Happens a few times a day.

You hit the trifecta - all nonsense. You just don't know what you're talking about. Anyway, if it happens so often, where are the examples from yesterday?

Also, just why are all the jocks letting MP get great trips? Is he paying them off? Do they just get a special feeling when he wins? Are they betting on him?

[Stillriledup]

You hit the trifecta - all nonsense. You just don't know what you're talking about. Anyway, if it happens so often, where are the examples from yesterday?

Also, just why are all the jocks letting MP get great trips? Is he paying them off? Do they just get a special feeling when he wins? Are they betting on him?

since you don't follow fairplex and needed me to dig for examples, how can you possibly disagree?

Since you think my examples are nonsense, why don't you go and dig up a few yourself?

Oh, i forgot, you don't think anyone ever moves out of the way for this guy so with colored glasses, you won't be able to see any examples of this.

Believe what you want to believe. I know you have a hard on for me so no matter what i do, you'll never give me credit and never admit i'm right.

[Saratoga_Mike]

since you don't follow fairplex and needed me to dig for examples,1) how can you possibly disagree?

2) Since you think my examples are nonsense, why don't you go and dig up a few yourself?

Oh, i forgot, you don't think anyone ever moves out of the way for this guy so with colored glasses, you won't be able to see any examples of this.

Believe what you want to believe. I know you have a hard on for me so no matter what i do, 3) you'll never give me credit and never admit i'm right.

1) I just watched the replays of your examples. I assume you provided me with your best examples. I didn't think any of them supported your claims. Ergo, I disagree. You're really confused by that?

2) Non-sequitur - why on earth would I look for examples of something I don't think exists? If I told you I don't believe in aliens, would you tell me
"you go prove there are aliens then?" No, because it doesn't make sense.

3) False. I agreed with you about a month ago on some matter. Sadly, you just post incorrect information most of the time.

[Stillriledup]

I think "let" is a stretch. They are tight turns and not all riders and horses navigate them well.

That's true, but thats a different discussion for a different day. I'm discussing jocks letting Pedroza 'run' the racetrack, which doesnt have much to do with horses not navigating the turns.

[Stillriledup]

1) I just watched the replays of your examples. I assume you provided me with your best examples. I didn't think any of them supported your claims. Ergo, I disagree. You're really confused by that?

2) Non-sequitur - why on earth would I look for examples of something I don't think exists? If I told you I don't believe in aliens, would you tell me
"you go prove there are aliens then?" No, because it doesn't make sense.

3) False. I agreed with you about a month ago on some matter. Sadly, you just post incorrect information most of the time.

You agreed with me? Show me the post.

Those were not my best examples, i just gave you what i could dig up quickly. I'm not going to spend more time on something to try and prove to you what i already know. If you dont think jocks move out of the way for Pedroza than its your right to believe that, i'm not going to stand in your way.

[cj]

That's true, but thats a different discussion for a different day. I'm discussing jocks letting Pedroza 'run' the racetrack, which doesnt have much to do with horses not navigating the turns.

It has everything to do with jockeys supposedly "letting" him have the inside. I think it is safe to say most of the riders at Fairplex are far from wealthy. To assume they move over for Pedroza is moronic.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You agreed with me? Show me the post.

Those were not my best examples, i just gave you what i could dig up quickly. I'm not going to spend more time on something to try and prove to you what i already know. If you dont think jocks move out of the way for Pedroza than its your right to believe that, i'm not going to stand in your way.

I've agreed with you sometime in the past (will find something), but I will admit I was probably WRONG to claim it was in the past month. I agreed with Toussaud in the past month or so (and disagreed with CJ, I remember noting it). You and Toussaud remind me of each, which explains my confusion.

Yeah, I don't believe it, as they have no reason to do it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It has everything to do with jockeys supposedly "letting" him have the inside. I think it is safe to say most of the riders at Fairplex are far from wealthy. To assume they move over for Pedroza is moronic.

My god - does SRU not comprehend simple logic? Anyway, I'm not going to discuss this matter with him anymore. Good luck if you decide to do so!

[Stillriledup]

It has everything to do with jockeys supposedly "letting" him have the inside. I think it is safe to say most of the riders at Fairplex are far from wealthy. To assume they move over for Pedroza is moronic.

Pedroza owns fairplex, jocks are required to move out of his way. If you've watched those races over the years, you know this to be true. (its the same thing in the Derby when Calvin rides at Churchill, guys just move out of his way)

[BlueShoe]

Well, once again the other guys did not do much "letting" for Martin. Two wins, but also several losers on short priced runners. To be candid about it, the card today was perhaps the worst this player has ever seen on a weekend. Seven maiden races out of the eleven carded, with most of the fields showing fuzzy form, at best. Of the remaining four, two were for bottom level F & Ms. Pick 6 carryover next week, if anyone cares.

[cj]

Pedroza owns fairplex, jocks are required to move out of his way. If you've watched those races over the years, you know this to be true. (its the same thing in the Derby when Calvin rides at Churchill, guys just move out of his way)

No, they don't, in either case. Horses drift because they are tired.

[jamey1977]

I have tried to follow him, he choked on O'Neil's horse on Opening Day- Praise For Dubai- A nice loss in my loss ledger. A lot of the horses are class drops- Finishing 7th and 8th- Can go against Pedroza easily- Take him on a strong 6 to 5 but go against him when he's on a cruddy underlay. Pedroza still wouldn't turn you a profit even if you bet all of his Fairplex mounts from the last 2 years. Even when he had the favorite. 4 Furlongs , you have a speed horse, go against Pedroza

[mannyberrios]

Isn't C. Santiago Reyes tied with Martin P. Right now?

[Stillriledup]

Well, once again the other guys did not do much "letting" for Martin. Two wins, but also several losers on short priced runners. To be candid about it, the card today was perhaps the worst this player has ever seen on a weekend. Seven maiden races out of the eleven carded, with most of the fields showing fuzzy form, at best. Of the remaining four, two were for bottom level F & Ms. Pick 6 carryover next week, if anyone cares.

Its pretty bad no doubt. Maybe they should install polytrack, that way they can see increased safety and higher betting handles just like Del Mar did.

[ronsmac]

This is like a slump for Martin. He usually has about 10-12 wins after 3 days at Fairplex.

[NikeUnlimited]

Fairplex: Rough riding triggers tempers of Pedroza, Santiago-Reyes (http://www.drf.com/news/fairplex-rough-riding-triggers-tempers-pedroza-santiago-reyes)

[maryforney]

Brad Free makes a pretty good case for some overlay potential on Thursday's card, here: http://www.drf.com/news/fairplex-value-exists-exotic-bettors-all-claiming-card.

Martin's mounts in the 4th (Schuylkill Punch), 7th (Fortunate Appeal) and 8th (North Fork) all could be upset-able.

[duncan04]

I usually take a break from Cal racing after Del Mar till Hollywood

[pondman]

I know personally i won't bet a dime on FPX because Pedroza turns that place into jockey racing and not horse racing.


Did you see him ride in the kostof stakes on Sunday?

One of the worst rides I've ever seen. I'm sure Baffert wasn't too happy with Pedroza.

It's nothing new. The crowds been slamming him for a number of years.