Versajoe
09-08-2011, 07:12 AM
For years I have been reading that mantra that if tracks lower their takeout, people will return. I've never really believed it was this simple, and a recent day at Plainridge all but confirmed this. Plainridge has a 15% takeout across the board.
In this analysis, I am thinking specifically of the casual gambler. The theory is that with such a high drop rate, casual gamblers almost always leave losers. This is true. But is that really any different than a casino? As a former casino employee, I was shocked at how many players leave losers.
And this is the key... People are always comparing the track takeout to the takeout at the casino. For slots, it's generally anywhere between 5 and 10 percent. That's definitely lower than at the track.
But it isn't that simple. What matters at the casino is the DROP rate. In other words, how much of the money patrons bring do they actually leave at the casino? I haven't seen recent stats, but if memory serves me correctly it's MUCH higher than the takeout. Why? Because people bet the same money over and over.
An example: Let's say the average Joe goes to the casino with $100. They will play the slots until they have either (a) won enough to want to stop and go home a winner; or (b) lost their $100. This means that after they have wagered their $100 and have $93 remaining, they will keep betting that $93, etc. etc.
This suggests to me that lowering the takeout is not the only answer. I am going to say something sacrilegious here. A lot of casual gamblers hope to get lucky but expect to lose.
It's the HOPE that drives them to gamble. Sure, my hope may be less because of a high takeout, but it's not that simple. In my opinion, the are other more glaring obstacles. The biggest are:
(1) the track takes more time.
(2) casual gamblers don't feel that they know how to handicap.
I, for one, feel that I have a MUCH better chance of winning a $2,000 slot jackpot than I ever would of winning a $2,000 superfecta. Maybe it's because I can make very fast, repeated, $1 attempts at the $2,000 jackpot with a slot machine. At the track, there are only a handful of opportunities to bet the superfecta. This means that if I want the same chances, I have to bet a LOT of money on each race. Even if patrons bet the same money in the long run, they are less intimidated betting $1 and pulling a lever than they are betting $100. It's just human nature.
So what can tracks do? I haven't really thought that part through. Aside from making the experience more entertaining in and of itself, I think that tracks really need to look at why people like slots (and other casino games) so much. Slots are not fun. (I hate them.) They are boring. But people play them in droves. So it must be the lure of a jackpot that keeps players coming.
With this is mind, I feel that tracks need to make the average gambler feel that they have a chance of winning a nice jackpot. I really don't feel that average gamblers feel that way at the track. Specifically, tracks need to find a way for gamblers to make much more frequent smaller bets that have fairly high payouts. (Don't ask me how!)
I do understand that boxing numbers is actually many smaller bets rolled into one. But it's a lot of money to plunk down at one time, and that's where I feel that the system at the tracks breaks down compared to what casinos do.
In this analysis, I am thinking specifically of the casual gambler. The theory is that with such a high drop rate, casual gamblers almost always leave losers. This is true. But is that really any different than a casino? As a former casino employee, I was shocked at how many players leave losers.
And this is the key... People are always comparing the track takeout to the takeout at the casino. For slots, it's generally anywhere between 5 and 10 percent. That's definitely lower than at the track.
But it isn't that simple. What matters at the casino is the DROP rate. In other words, how much of the money patrons bring do they actually leave at the casino? I haven't seen recent stats, but if memory serves me correctly it's MUCH higher than the takeout. Why? Because people bet the same money over and over.
An example: Let's say the average Joe goes to the casino with $100. They will play the slots until they have either (a) won enough to want to stop and go home a winner; or (b) lost their $100. This means that after they have wagered their $100 and have $93 remaining, they will keep betting that $93, etc. etc.
This suggests to me that lowering the takeout is not the only answer. I am going to say something sacrilegious here. A lot of casual gamblers hope to get lucky but expect to lose.
It's the HOPE that drives them to gamble. Sure, my hope may be less because of a high takeout, but it's not that simple. In my opinion, the are other more glaring obstacles. The biggest are:
(1) the track takes more time.
(2) casual gamblers don't feel that they know how to handicap.
I, for one, feel that I have a MUCH better chance of winning a $2,000 slot jackpot than I ever would of winning a $2,000 superfecta. Maybe it's because I can make very fast, repeated, $1 attempts at the $2,000 jackpot with a slot machine. At the track, there are only a handful of opportunities to bet the superfecta. This means that if I want the same chances, I have to bet a LOT of money on each race. Even if patrons bet the same money in the long run, they are less intimidated betting $1 and pulling a lever than they are betting $100. It's just human nature.
So what can tracks do? I haven't really thought that part through. Aside from making the experience more entertaining in and of itself, I think that tracks really need to look at why people like slots (and other casino games) so much. Slots are not fun. (I hate them.) They are boring. But people play them in droves. So it must be the lure of a jackpot that keeps players coming.
With this is mind, I feel that tracks need to make the average gambler feel that they have a chance of winning a nice jackpot. I really don't feel that average gamblers feel that way at the track. Specifically, tracks need to find a way for gamblers to make much more frequent smaller bets that have fairly high payouts. (Don't ask me how!)
I do understand that boxing numbers is actually many smaller bets rolled into one. But it's a lot of money to plunk down at one time, and that's where I feel that the system at the tracks breaks down compared to what casinos do.