One horse today.

[Suff]

I'm trying not to sound "Bigger" than I am... But I know alot of people look in on who I like... I'm sure I have just as many check to see how poorly i'm going as do to see who I like or or how I did. I got a couple of notes telling me people miss my Picks,

I have'nt been posting as often for one reason. I will bet a horse I look at for 5 minutes... But I won't post it. (other than when I am playing Live in here or the warroom).

I assume "some" people use my Longys under what they like because it a pretty good shot... that my horses run better than thier odds...and I put alot of double digit horses on the ticket.

When I have a bad day it hurts...and the biggest weapon I have that helps me stick to my guns and play the Horses I land on....is that I do the work. If I work a race hard and I lose... I feel no pain... I know if I just keep working I'll get mine. But I have to do the work.

Right now I'm working 70 hours a week and can't give the PP's the time they deserve to POST THEM. Don;t worry though...I'm still betting them.... at a loss... net-net I'm hurting myself by playing now.. But This is why I call it my hobby... I like to play...and if it cost me $1500 this month? Thats ok.. Thats What a scuba diver will pay for a weeks Vacation to do what he loves in Cancun.

I'll never post a Horse that I have'nt worked on Properly. Although I have done this and occasionally my ass thinks for me and I post something I worked only 1/2 as hard as I should of..


Although I like posting my thoughts...and I HOPE people use my animals...because thats one of the reasons I post them. I could never sell my thoughts or picks. I have no bias against people that do... I thinks its completely legit to get paid for Intellectually property... If I ever sold a selection that did'nt win...I'd need to give the money back. I aint going to take money from a Guy for selling him a godamn loser? LMAO... Even though part of me says its legit... part of me says... How the HELL! Can you charge anyone for a losing horse? If I sell you ten horse's and none of them win...or 3 of them do at a "net loss" wtf did I sell you?

Anyway.. thats a subject for another Day.

Here's a Filly that will out run her odds and make you some money today.:(

#3 Wild Berry 10-1 in todays feature.

Stands with Fist and her will be on a few tickets.



I do know some people Guard thier Plays Like Gold. Getting a Tip out of some horse players is Unheard of in circles at the track. Some people get Po'd if you get to close to thier TABLE at the track. I knew a Miserable old bastard at Suffolk. He had that "stay away from me , I'm competing against you" personailty. I liked him and used to sit with him Often,, But he never told me who he played or who he liked.

He told me once...

"Mike, The only wagering advice I ever give is the same...and I give it to all the Players who ask"

"Put all your CAN on Toilet seat"

[chrisg]

Suff, couldn't agree more , Wild Berry is the play. 10-1 is a gift when you see the others (was it 1+9?) are 2-1 + 3-1.

[WINMANWIN]

Suff the man sticking with them N.Y. breds in open company.
After all he's the Man that touted every1 Funny Cide in the derby
and Funny rewarded him BIG TIME. I find it interesting that
GILL/SHUMAN have stalls at aqueduct, and they will be a force at aque this winter. I thought they were banned, mths ago !:confused: Anyway this steed Forest Music ran in the BREEDERS Cup last mth, and SPIT the Bit, big time:rolleyes:
You know this 1 may gun for the lead, as that 1st race beyer is UNCANY, Blinkers on today, with Prado aboard again, If Wild Berry
can clear this 1, steed has a shot, but How does 1 clear this
FREAK on the lead ?
:confused:

[Suff]

Originally posted by WINMANWIN

You know this 1 may gun for the lead, as that 1st race beyer is UNCANY, Blinkers on today, with Prado aboard again, If Wild Berry
can clear this 1, steed has a shot, but How does 1 clear this
FREAK on the lead ?
:confused:

you'd think the paper tells that story... but what is the actual truth is that this Fillys Game is after the 3/4 pole. Thats where she's done her best work. I watched all her efforts... when she de-rails...her train comes off the track.. But when she fires..she's all heart in the stretch and will ROAR there today..

I can say any numbers of things about the open company move.. But I know Hurricaine Hannah. Monster... this one embarressed her badly by 7. That statebred field was big..and you should know Butchy... these statebred Fillys are worth big bucks nowadays. Did you see the post I made that Arabis sold for 3 million at the Breeding stock sale?

I see your numbers..and If the race shapes the way you see it...

[SAL]

I don't think that Wild Berry is as much a speedball as Forest Music is. Wild Berry has won 2 races when she did not have the lead. Forest Music seems to be a stone cold frontrunner. Smokey Glacken backed off a speed duel last time and got caught by a couple of closers. The more I think of it, the more I believe that Forest Music will be an overbet false favorite in here.

[David McKenzie]

Here's the way I see it. One thing for sure, I'll use Lady Beelzebub in some shape or fashion if she's anywhere near those odds.


AQU08
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
1 Smokey Glacken C 3 27.5 $2.20 3.3 3
8 Lady Beelzebub C 21 15.6 $6.84 11.5 6
7 Hermione's Magic C 9/2 14.6 $1.61 -4.3 6
4 Stoic C 4 12.0 $1.20 -10.0 8

[WINMANWIN]

Way to go, Nice to see some opinions.It shapes up as a DANDY, as the Dutrow bro's have 2 entered, If the pace collapses,
Must respect, The Pletecher steed also tries the shades for this effort. Prado stays with the Gill filly and Castellano picks up the mount on the Dutrow steed Stoic, As the Pletcher steed lost to Stoic at 4 to 5 last outing. Just like all races, A REAL PUZZLE:eek:

[JustRalph]

Horses
9 Forest Music(E 4)[2.00] 1 - 0.0

3 Wild Berry(E 4)[10.00] : 2nd - 3.7 back

1 Smokey Glacken(E/P 6)[3.00] 3rd-4.3 back

8 Lady Beelzebub(E 6)[20.00] 4th- 6.4 back

This is how Equisim see's it using similiar distance and conditions etc. I kind of like the 3 and the 6 horse to come on late if this thing collapses up front

[Suff]

I love this banter about a race and how people see it.... Its a place on the board where being "Disagreeable" is expected and accepted

[IRISHLADSTABLE]

I'll put my two cent's in

I like (1) Smokey Glacken, (7) Hermione's Magic,(8) Lady Beelzebub

I'll play a Ex Part Wheel 1/7,8 and a 7-8 Ex Box

Also Play a Late D.D. 1,7,8 With The 11 (11) John's Jet

in the 9th .

Good Luck

Jimmy / ILS

[Hammerhead]

After reviewing the posts my numbers come up with the 1 horse.

Some decient trainers here that can sure win it. I will stay with Smokey Glacken to win.

[chrisg]

I haven't been playing Ny on a regular basis, but once in awhile when I see free pp's for a race there, I check it out.

I thought this is between 1, 3, 9. I think the 9 is the best but still should need time to recover from that initial mind-blowing outing; bc day shouldn't help her.

No argument the 1 is a threat BUT Wild Berry has 56 days to mature from her last race and an additional 18 from her best. I throw out both Wild Berry's off efforts because they may have been too close (in terms of days) to her best.

So I play the odds and that shows 10-1 is the play and 16-1 as I glance at it now.

Good luck.

[JustRalph]

Hard to get past that 1:08.5 on the 9 horse....it was at LRL....don't know the track well enough to know if that was as fast as it seems

[shanta]

HI GUYS. GONNA JUMP IN HERE WITH MY 2 CHOICES HERE. #4 (STOIC ) WAS SHARP IN LAST AND HAS WORKED SOLID SINCE. CASTELLANO IS WHITE HOT WITH TRAINER LAST FEW RACES.

#6(BALDOMERA) BIG LONGSHOT NEEDS THE RACE TO FALL APART AND ALSO STEPS UP BIGTIME HERE. BUT TRAINER REALLY KNOWS HOW TO SPOT THEM IN BIG RACES.


$15 BEANS TO WIN ON THE 4 AND 6 TOTAL $30.00

[JustRalph]

72397183198475 Aqueduct # 8 $1 Trifecta KY,9,WT,1,3,4,8 cost $12.00
34946283121810 Aqueduct # 8 $1 Trifecta KY,9,WT,1,2,3,4 cost $12.00
65199987215436 Aqueduct # 8 $10 Win/Place/Show 3 cost $30.00
50151228141686 Aqueduct # 8 $2 Trifecta KY,3,WT,1,9 cost $4.00
67886014348678 Aqueduct # 8 $2 Trifecta KY,1,WT,3,9 cost $4.00


my plays on it.......

I only had 40 bucks in my account.........

[SAL]

Well they're pounding the 9 like crazy. Went with the 3/4 in some exactas and tri's. Played the 3 in the DD with #2 in the 9th.

[Suff]

Originally posted by David McKenzie@HSH
Here's the way I see it. One thing for sure, I'll use Lady Beelzebub in some shape or fashion if she's anywhere near those odds.


AQU08
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
1 Smokey Glacken C 3 27.5 $2.20 3.3 3
8 Lady Beelzebub C 21 15.6 $6.84 11.5 6
7 Hermione's Magic C 9/2 14.6 $1.61 -4.3 6
4 Stoic C 4 12.0 $1.20 -10.0 8


You sniffed out a Nice run from her dave... In the thick of it late... a smidge more from her and a smidge less from 1 of them..and you might of had a big one.

[chrisg]

Hey, didn't see the race but I was wrong as I just checked the results.

I'm surprised WB wasn't involved. Surprised they way they played the Gill FIlly too.

Gotta tell ya, I'd make the same play if I had to do over though.