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View Full Version : Some thoughts after a long hiatus


Versajoe
09-06-2011, 10:28 AM
I went to the track on Labor Day after being away for at least a year. I had pretty much given up on harness racing because I came to the realization that there is not any "casual" money left out there. The only people betting on harness racing these days are the diehards. Tracks just aren't getting the leisure crowd. Combine this with the takeout, and the game is a losing proposition. No doubt there are people who make a profit (I suppose), but I don't have nearly enough time to devote to the sport to get to that level.

Nonetheless, I really enjoy an afternoon at the track as a form of leisure. I went to Plainridge Racecourse because some friends were going to be there. It was the track's biggest racing day of the year.

And what did I observe...

Harness racing won't go away, but it will contract. Casinos are a double edged sword. While they have propped up certain pari-mutuels, they have killed those without a casino attached. It is obvious that Plainridge is merely holding on looking for a Hail-Mary from slot machines.

Just look at all of the facilities that have closed in New England during the past several years:
- Hindsdale greyhound
- Seabrook greyhound
- Belmont Park (Laconia area) greyhound
- Rockingham Park
- Pownal, VT (horses then greyhound)
- Hartford Jai Alai
- Milford Jai Alai
- Newport Jai Alai
- Plainfied (CT) greyhound
- Bridgeport greyhound
- Raynham Park greyhound
- Wonderland greyhound

On the biggest day of the year, they were still running races with $1,000 claimers. That's just pathetic. For the big race, a purse that had been $50,000 is now $20,000. I calculated that the top driver at the track had only made $6,850 this year. This is not a sustainable model.

On the upside, the crowd was really nice. Lots of families, activities for kids, etc. I know they can't do this everyday, but it certainly brought in a lot of pleasant folks who wanted to spend a nice afternoon at the track.

One worry is that Plainridge has extremely low takeouts. 15% for all bets, even trifectas. Players keep suggesting that this is the answer for struggling tracks. Yet with Plainridge, it's hard to believe that they fared much better as a result.

And yet you could tell that a lot of owners, trainers, and drivers still hang in because they love the sport. They aren't there to make lots of money. They could probably earn an easier living in another profession. But they stay. I wish I knew how to harness their spirit for the good of the sport.

Sadly, harness racing should be popular in a recession. You can go to the track with $40 and have a fun afternoon. See how long that same money would last in a casino. But people do not appear to be returning to the track.

My VERY short synopsis as to the major problems is thus:
1) Gamblers like casinos better.
2) People don't have the time anymore that it takes to play the horses right.
3) The casual gambler is turned off by pari-mutuel betting. That same person has no disadvantage pulling the lever on a slot machine, but they are at a disadvantage at the track.
4) The tracks don't nurture newcomers. I read a lot of books on my own, but the track has no program at all develop new handicappers.
5) As casual players leave, the ability of the remaining players to turn a profit has sharply decreased.
6) Simulcasting has hurt the experience at the actual track. With so many people betting online and at OTBs, the tracks don't have the energy from the crowds that they once had.

As for my day, I had a great afternoon. I bet four trifectas, boxing three numbers. In each of the four races I got the top 3 out of 4, but another horse snuck in and took one of the money positions. Close but no cigar. I hit a couple of exactas and picked some winners so I finished with a few bucks more than I started with. Even if I lost the same amount I would have felt that it was well worth it for an afternoon's worth of entertainment.

But I wonder if I would have felt the same on a non-feature day. That's part of the reason I stopped going. Most tracks now are depressing.

Teach
09-06-2011, 06:56 PM
First of all, Joe; I enjoyed your post.

I think you hit the nail on the head with your conclusions as to the decreasing popularity of harness racing.
I used to be a regular at both the now defunct Foxboro Raceway (Bay State Raceway) and Plainridge.
In fact, I worked at both (Back up announcer/publicity director at Foxboro; teller and tele-bet taker at Plainridge).

Frankly, it's been a long time since I've been to Plainridge. Oh, you'd think that now that I'm retired I'd have more time
for an afternoon at the track. However, for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which is babysitting grandchildren, I haven't
been to Plainridge in a month of Sundays.

For me, it's not the same. Many of my former cronies (I'm pushing 70-years-old) don't come to the track anymore. Some have
passed on, others are too infirm. As for me, it's been easier to open an ADW account, fund it, and wager at my leisure from my computer.
As I live some thirty miles from the track and don't see quite as well as I used to, I find it easier - and safer - to skip the driving
and sit in my room and make my wagers.

In the old days, I craved the camaraderie. The excitement. The horses warming up on the track. The large throngs of people
standing or sitting (some brought their own lawn chairs) on the track apron. I remember names like Clifford "Tug" Boyd, Alfred
"Bucky" Day, Leroy Copeland, Frank Safford, "Old Man" Hansen, Stan Tweedie, and a host of others. In those days, Foxboro
Raceway ran a 2-month summer meet: mid-June to late August. I believe they were granted 60 days. But there was no
competition, pari-mutuel, casino, lottery, or otherwise. The crowds were huge.

Yes, those were wonderful times. Times, I'm afraid, that will never be repeated.

Hanover1
09-06-2011, 11:09 PM
I went to the track on Labor Day after being away for at least a year. I had pretty much given up on harness racing because I came to the realization that there is not any "casual" money left out there. The only people betting on harness racing these days are the diehards. Tracks just aren't getting the leisure crowd. Combine this with the takeout, and the game is a losing proposition. No doubt there are people who make a profit (I suppose), but I don't have nearly enough time to devote to the sport to get to that level.

Nonetheless, I really enjoy an afternoon at the track as a form of leisure. I went to Plainridge Racecourse because some friends were going to be there. It was the track's biggest racing day of the year.

And what did I observe...

Harness racing won't go away, but it will contract. Casinos are a double edged sword. While they have propped up certain pari-mutuels, they have killed those without a casino attached. It is obvious that Plainridge is merely holding on looking for a Hail-Mary from slot machines.

Just look at all of the facilities that have closed in New England during the past several years:
- Hindsdale greyhound
- Seabrook greyhound
- Belmont Park (Laconia area) greyhound
- Rockingham Park
- Pownal, VT (horses then greyhound)
- Hartford Jai Alai
- Milford Jai Alai
- Newport Jai Alai
- Plainfied (CT) greyhound
- Bridgeport greyhound
- Raynham Park greyhound
- Wonderland greyhound

On the biggest day of the year, they were still running races with $1,000 claimers. That's just pathetic. For the big race, a purse that had been $50,000 is now $20,000. I calculated that the top driver at the track had only made $6,850 this year. This is not a sustainable model.

On the upside, the crowd was really nice. Lots of families, activities for kids, etc. I know they can't do this everyday, but it certainly brought in a lot of pleasant folks who wanted to spend a nice afternoon at the track.

One worry is that Plainridge has extremely low takeouts. 15% for all bets, even trifectas. Players keep suggesting that this is the answer for struggling tracks. Yet with Plainridge, it's hard to believe that they fared much better as a result.

And yet you could tell that a lot of owners, trainers, and drivers still hang in because they love the sport. They aren't there to make lots of money. They could probably earn an easier living in another profession. But they stay. I wish I knew how to harness their spirit for the good of the sport.

Sadly, harness racing should be popular in a recession. You can go to the track with $40 and have a fun afternoon. See how long that same money would last in a casino. But people do not appear to be returning to the track.

My VERY short synopsis as to the major problems is thus:
1) Gamblers like casinos better.
2) People don't have the time anymore that it takes to play the horses right.
3) The casual gambler is turned off by pari-mutuel betting. That same person has no disadvantage pulling the lever on a slot machine, but they are at a disadvantage at the track.
4) The tracks don't nurture newcomers. I read a lot of books on my own, but the track has no program at all develop new handicappers.
5) As casual players leave, the ability of the remaining players to turn a profit has sharply decreased.
6) Simulcasting has hurt the experience at the actual track. With so many people betting online and at OTBs, the tracks don't have the energy from the crowds that they once had.

As for my day, I had a great afternoon. I bet four trifectas, boxing three numbers. In each of the four races I got the top 3 out of 4, but another horse snuck in and took one of the money positions. Close but no cigar. I hit a couple of exactas and picked some winners so I finished with a few bucks more than I started with. Even if I lost the same amount I would have felt that it was well worth it for an afternoon's worth of entertainment.

But I wonder if I would have felt the same on a non-feature day. That's part of the reason I stopped going. Most tracks now are depressing.

#6 on your list has as much to do with the other issues as not. It was the beginning of the spiral we are feeling today, and if we leave it to the guys currently in charge to fix it, we are really in trouble.

Ray2000
09-07-2011, 07:44 AM
3) The casual gambler is turned off by pari-mutuel betting. That same person has no disadvantage pulling the lever on a slot machine, but they are at a disadvantage at the track.
.....
5) As casual players leave, the ability of the remaining players to turn a profit has sharply decreased.



I get your point that the casual gambler has an equal chance at slots but it's not "no disadvantage", it's typically -5%. And you're right, at the track the casual gambler faces a much steeper challenge. Fighting sharks and robots, the "once or twice a month" player has a disadvantage much greater than the take out would suggest and it's getting worse. Here's some 'casual monkey' scores for the years 2007-2011

ROI and Ave Win Mutuels on random Win bets (sample size ~30,000 races per year all North American Tracks)

2007....-26%.....$12.20
2008....-28%.....$12.06
2009....-28%.....$11.99
2010....-29%.....$11.89
2011....-29%.....$11.83

Time to get a new hobby :)

Robert Goren
09-07-2011, 08:57 AM
For the casual gambler, a day of slots or blackjack holds a much better chance of going home a winner than does racing. Greed has lead to higher takeouts and has made almost impossable for the casual fan even to have a lucky day. I am not saying that he has good chance at a casino, but he does have some sort of chance. At the races, he has luck into some big multi bet win with while not buying too many tickets and the chances of that happening are darn slim. He can't just go out there and try to pick the winner in every race and have much of a hope of breaking even, let alone going home a decent winner. There was a day where a guy could go out there and buy nothing but $2 win tickets and go home $20 bucks ahead if he was lucky. Not anymore.

badcompany
09-07-2011, 02:57 PM
I get your point that the casual gambler has an equal chance at slots but it's not "no disadvantage", it's typically -5%. And you're right, at the track the casual gambler faces a much steeper challenge. Fighting sharks and robots, the "once or twice a month" player has a disadvantage much greater than the take out would suggest and it's getting worse. Here's some 'casual monkey' scores for the years 2007-2011

ROI and Ave Win Mutuels on random Win bets (sample size ~30,000 races per year all North American Tracks)

2007....-26%.....$12.20
2008....-28%.....$12.06
2009....-28%.....$11.99
2010....-29%.....$11.89
2011....-29%.....$11.83

Time to get a new hobby :)

Interesting stats, Ray.

Not to be conspiracy theorist, but, with a shrinking pie, do you think the lower Avg Win Price and Lower ROI is a result of more "Monkey Business"?

Ray2000
09-07-2011, 05:09 PM
do you think the lower Avg Win Price and Lower ROI is a result of more "Monkey Business"?


"Monkey Business" :D

hadn't thought about those monkeys. they've been around for years....

BTW, The percentage of Win payoffs below $5.00 for 2007-11 are

28.5%......29.2%......29.5%......30.7%......31.0%

Just another way of showing the part of the total handle that's bleeding is 'new' blood.


.

rikkisnumber
09-07-2011, 06:23 PM
Ray,

Do those win payoff percentages vary by oval size?

Rich

Ray2000
09-07-2011, 07:06 PM
Rich

Yes, but mainly due to larger field sizes (9 or 10 starters on the mile tracks) giving higher mutuels.

I'll break it down by track, put up the numbers tomorrow.

I removed all races with scratch(es), (just because I'm lazy :) ) else I'd have to do all the refunds for monkeys whose random pick got scratched.

Sea Biscuit
09-07-2011, 07:22 PM
ROI and Ave Win Mutuels on random Win bets (sample size ~30,000 races per year all North American Tracks)

2007....-26%.....$12.20
2008....-28%.....$12.06
2009....-28%.....$11.99
2010....-29%.....$11.89
2011....-29%.....$11.83

Time to get a new hobby :)

Ray The thing I wanna know is who makes those random win bets at a race track.

I certainly don't and I am sure you don't either.

Ray2000
09-07-2011, 07:44 PM
Of course not, Sea

It's a barometer of what's happening to Harness Betting. How it's getting tougher and tougher to make a buck. And it kinda fits in with this thread's topic on the decline of the sport.

BTW The monkeys have been doing better than me lately.... :lol: