ROI Query

[rubicon55]

I am doing my quartely check on my ROI for various tracks I play. Of course I play some tracks more than others and some have shorter seasons than others. I also know statistically more data is better. Sometimes I will try a new track to see if my methods will work at that facility. In your opinion, how many single wagering events such as W/P/S or exotic would you consider minimally enough to satisfy you in order for you to come to a general conclusion that your methods and ROI might be working at that track? I know there is a host of variables and technical aspects that most certainly will come up but I am just trying to keep it simple as possible and was interested what other board members use as their threshold or potential indicator that maybe something may be working at a particular track for them and may warrant future focus at that new venue. Some tracks I play have very high ROI's but the data base is small since I am still learning how that particular track works. This question mostly pertains to tracks where you do not have a lot of ROI data to draw from like from your favtorite tracks from previous years. It is obvious that larger data bases speak for themselves so this mainly pertains to a smaller data base ROI's. How large of a data base is significant to you that warrants further investigation is my question? Thanks in advance for your opinions.

[thaskalos]

I am doing my quartely check on my ROI for various tracks I play. Of course I play some tracks more than others and some have shorter seasons than others. I also know statistically more data is better. Sometimes I will try a new track to see if my methods will work at that facility. In your opinion, how many single wagering events such as W/P/S or exotic would you consider minimally enough to satisfy you in order for you to come to a general conclusion that your methods and ROI might be working at that track? I know there is a host of variables and technical aspects that most certainly will come up but I am just trying to keep it simple as possible and was interested what other board members use as their threshold or potential indicator that maybe something may be working at a particular track for them and may warrant future focus at that new venue. Some tracks I play have very high ROI's but the data base is small since I am still learning how that particular track works. This question mostly pertains to tracks where you do not have a lot of ROI data to draw from like from your favtorite tracks from previous years. It is obvious that larger data bases speak for themselves so this mainly pertains to a smaller data base ROI's. How large of a data base is significant to you that warrants further investigation is my question? Thanks in advance for your opinions.
A 300-500 "straight-bet" sample would be needed for me to come to a "general conclusion" about the validity of my methods at a new track.

Exotic bets are much more difficult to figure out...because you run the risk of having one or two HUGE payoffs skew your data.

[pondman]

In your opinion, how many single wagering events such as W/P/S or exotic would you consider minimally enough to satisfy you in order for you to come to a general conclusion that your methods and ROI might be working at that track?

I believe a season is required, two is better. I'd rather not see a required number...

If you can be confident in your data during the following year, then you've got yourself a gold mine. They're out there. I've got one going on 16 years. But it only requires approximately 110 bets a year. It wouldn't qualify under your more data is better.

Keep it simple. I would rather see you focus on the win spot. Once you got the win down, you can move to exotics if the opportunity occurs.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Since you are only asking for an opinion, here's mine.

Win betting: ROI will stabilize at about 160 winners. Without knowing your win percentage, it's impossible to say how many races that will take. If you are a system seller who wins 73% of his bets at $11.20, 2 months; otherwise, a long time and a whole lot of races.

Exacta betting: About 2000-2500 races for the ROI to stabilize, due to the fact that there's more variation in the prices and the win percentage is lower.

Trifecta betting: No opinion, haven't studied it in enough detail but conservatively it would appear to require as many as 5000 races to know your ROI, possibly more. For practical purposes, I would consider it unknowable and just track actual results to see whether trifectas are profitable.

I'm pretty firm on the answers for win and exacta betting, as I did paid statistical research for a betting syndicate for an entire year (spare time only) about 4 years ago. They asked me the same questions you're posing here. Just consider these numbers as guidelines, not exact answers. To know anything with a high degree of confidence requires more data than one would expect, and much more than most are willing to compile.

Elliott