Taking football betting serious this year

[DigitalDownsJoe]

After a few years of casually betting football for fun, this year I am stepping it up and doing things right. No betting just for action, no parlays. I pick at a pretty high percentage for NFL. Last year I picked 62% for the year but lost money due to lots of parlays and teasers. With the internet and lots of books available, I think its important to just stick to straight bets and line shop. I am amazed as to the wide variety of lines out there for a game. I have seen as much as 2 point differences and sometimes you can get games for like a point difference and add some juice your way(+105 +110) etc. Im going to keep accounts in 5 or 6 different places and get the best value and make some money this year. Anyone have any other tips? :jump:

[ManU918]

After a few years of casually betting football for fun, this year I am stepping it up and doing things right. No betting just for action, no parlays. I pick at a pretty high percentage for NFL. Last year I picked 62% for the year but lost money due to lots of parlays and teasers. With the internet and lots of books available, I think its important to just stick to straight bets and line shop. I am amazed as to the wide variety of lines out there for a game. I have seen as much as 2 point differences and sometimes you can get games for like a point difference and add some juice your way(+105 +110) etc. Im going to keep accounts in 5 or 6 different places and get the best value and make some money this year. Anyone have any other tips? :jump:

I don't think completely ruling out teasers and parlays is something I would ever do. It's obviously not something you want to do all of the time, but teasers can be an excellent tool if used wisely. Being able to line shop is very important, but being able to get your money is even more important. At this point is there even six online books that have that much credibility?

[PhantomOnTour]

1) any team going on the road after playing a Monday night game is ususally toast
2) a west coast team playing in the eastern time zone in a 1pm kickoff is a good bet against
3) take any home team getting 10 or more points

**i never bet on anything but horseracing

[Robert Goren]

I think in this envoriment, it is insane to deal with any gambling site that is violating US laws. I lost money with Full Tilt Poker. Learn from my mistake, I know I did. How do you know if the government shuts them down that they will have enough cash to make their account holders whole again.

[sonnyp]

1) any team going on the road after playing a Monday night game is ususally toast
2) a west coast team playing in the eastern time zone in a 1pm kickoff is a good bet against
3) take any home team getting 10 or more points

**i never bet on anything but horseracing

the lines usually take the above stiuations into account and compensate for them. pro football most time comes down to the last drive of the game with the spread cover available to either side and this is the result of the accuracy of the line.

there still may be a slight edge in college football where the talent is not so even between teams but the lines are so inflated toward top ten teams its difficult to lay, and since the only way top teams rise in the polls is margin of victory, its hard to take also cause they really pile it on when possible.

[elysiantraveller]

I find that when playing Pro's you need to line shop as there is rarely much value to playing straight wagers because A) everyone is a pro and B) a known commodity.

College its the exact opposite, I ignore lines and play straights because of bigger payouts and the relative ease to find value.

[ManU918]

I think in this envoriment, it is insane to deal with any gambling site that is violating US laws. I lost money with Full Tilt Poker. Learn from my mistake, I know I did. How do you know if the government shuts them down that they will have enough cash to make their account holders whole again.

Once the poker shutdown went down, I pulled my money from my offshore account and it will never go back. Not only FullTilt and Pokerstars but look what happen with BetEd.

[sonnyp]

Once the poker shutdown went down, I pulled my money from my offshore account and it will never go back. Not only FullTilt and Pokerstars but look what happen with BetEd.


the government is really so hypocritical. many, many people want to bet, whether it be horses or football or or sports in general. not that the government is entitled to it, but let the bastards regulate it and take their "pound of flesh" and stop the absurdity of making criminals of people who try to make a bet. it's ridiculous and they're always crying about revenue sources.

[lamboguy]

i am hearing that there are some big gambling company's that have poker sites ready to start the minute it gets legalized here. large onshore company's that you won't have to worrry about your money and getting cheated.

if you need bigtime legit action these days you can get down for all you want in stocks, commodity's, forex. but you better be good because the goldman sachs gang is on the opposite side of every trade you make along with the merril lynch mob.

[sonnyp]

i am hearing that there are some big gambling company's that have poker sites ready to start the minute it gets legalized here. large onshore company's that you won't have to worrry about your money and getting cheated.

if you need bigtime legit action these days you can get down for all you want in stocks, commodity's, forex. but you better be good because the goldman sachs gang is on the opposite side of every trade you make along with the merril lynch mob.


you got a better shot in football lol

[Valuist]

I like to look for misleading scores and play against teams that have been very fortunate, and on those that haven't. Yardage, esp rush yards, yards per play and first downs are all important gauges of how well a team really played. Often turnovers will distort the score. True some teams are better at forcing them, but in many cases teams who had a big positive turnover margin one year often end up negative the next as the bounces even out.

[Robert Fischer]

the lines usually take the above stiuations into account and compensate for them. pro football most time comes down to the last drive of the game with the spread cover available to either side and this is the result of the accuracy of the line.


I am a for recreation -only player.

From what I was told - the line is designed to take about equal action for both teams, NOT to accurately guage the score (although overall it is rather accurate.).

Has this idea changed? Was it always a false idea, and if it has changed, - why and when, and what specific info do we know about this?

Operating along the old premise = that lines are designed to take equal action, An NFL bettor can take advantage of this.

For Example, lets say the Jacksonville Jaguars(do they still have a team?) are matched against the Pittsburgh Steelers...

if the lines are set to take even action They will have to give Jacksonville a TON of points!
Reason being that everyone who wants action on the game wants to take the STILLERS!!!

*HERE WE GO STILLER... HERE WE GO*

oh yea... so if the action premise is true than a serious NFL player will look for lines like these in addition to being good with the point spreads himself, and hopefully tack on a few extra winners when he can justify an unpopular/smallmarket team beating a large spread...

anyone care to refute or correct??

[lamboguy]

you got a better shot in football lol
i know football has only 2 teams, but when i used to bet it i used to lose 8 times out of ten when i tried to pick them. i had a friend that used to put in my bets and he would go the opposite way that i bet every single game without handicapping. when i quit betting games 30 years ago he was sick. i can't blame him. the funny thing was that if i didn't put money on the games i would do alright.

[sonnyp]

i know football has only 2 teams, but when i used to bet it i used to lose 8 times out of ten when i tried to pick them. i had a friend that used to put in my bets and he would go the opposite way that i bet every single game without handicapping. when i quit betting games 30 years ago he was sick. i can't blame him. the funny thing was that if i didn't put money on the games i would do alright.


that's funny but not that uncommon. lol. i'm the same way. the term used for guys like us is "barometers". "wise guys" find out who we like....and just bet the other side. like the guy "mush" in bronx tale", if your on his side...tear up the tkts.

mr. fischer, if the line is accurate, then the public perception is that the game (plus or minus the points) becomes a mythical toss up and creates the two way action the books desire.

the games can be bet as to the actual score on the board, but instead of laying $11 to win $10 you would have to lay much higher odds on the favorite perhaps 2-1 or 3-1, and take back 1.8 or 2.8 on the underdog. it's called the money line. the difference is for the books if those bets come in even on both sides.

[Relwob Owner]

After a few years of casually betting football for fun, this year I am stepping it up and doing things right. No betting just for action, no parlays. I pick at a pretty high percentage for NFL. Last year I picked 62% for the year but lost money due to lots of parlays and teasers. With the internet and lots of books available, I think its important to just stick to straight bets and line shop. I am amazed as to the wide variety of lines out there for a game. I have seen as much as 2 point differences and sometimes you can get games for like a point difference and add some juice your way(+105 +110) etc. Im going to keep accounts in 5 or 6 different places and get the best value and make some money this year. Anyone have any other tips? :jump:



Home underdogs.....love them. If I bet more often, I would look into it and get stats but they just seem to do well. Also, if a bet looks incredibly obvious, either skip or bet the opposite. Good luck!

[sonnyp]

Home underdogs.....love them. If I bet more often, I would look into it and get stats but they just seem to do well. Also, if a bet looks incredibly obvious, either skip or bet the opposite. Good luck!


funniest thing in the books is when all the dummies land on the same team and tell each other "this team is a cinch" before the game.....and then can't figure out how they lost after the game.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I also look to bet against bad teams rather then bet on good teams. Just seems to make sense to me. I look for teams who's lines are banged up, teams who have nothing to play for late in the year, teams who always play a better team tough, teams who dont play well on certain surfaces..Looking for other angles

[magwell]

Betting on a football game is like betting a 4/5 shot and waiting 3 hours to run the race. Its a suckers game, the bookies drive Mercedes and eat in fancy steak houses, the players drive old Fords and eat at Burger King....:cool:

[thaskalos]

Betting on a football game is like betting a 4/5 shot and waiting 3 hours to run the race. Its a suckers game, the bookies drive Mercedes and eat in fancy steak houses, the players drive old Fords and eat at Burger King....:cool:
Nothing could be further from the truth.

The legal sportsbooks in Las Vegas have taken such beatings from sophisticated, computer-driven betting syndicates...that they have reduced their betting limits to a fraction of what they formerly were.

[magwell]

Nothing could be further from the truth.

The legal sportsbooks in Las Vegas have taken such beatings from sophisticated, computer-driven betting syndicates...that they have reduced their betting limits to a fraction of what they formerly were. I'm talking about the average bettor is that ok now ?

[thaskalos]

I'm talking about the average bettor is that ok now ?
Does the "average bettor" fare any better betting on the horses?

Gambling profits are not possible for the "average bettor"...no matter WHAT his game of choice is.

It's a universal law...

[sonnyp]

Does the "average bettor" fare any better betting on the horses?

Gambling profits are not possible for the "average bettor"...no matter WHAT his game of choice is.

It's a universal law...



rule #1 in a casino : the bettor must loose.
rule #2 : see rule #1

[ManU918]

Betting on a football game is like betting a 4/5 shot and waiting 3 hours to run the race. Its a suckers game, the bookies drive Mercedes and eat in fancy steak houses, the players drive old Fords and eat at Burger King....:cool:

That has to be one of the most ridiculous statements I have read in my entire life. A 4/5 shot in a race has to go up against 7 or 8 other horses. A football game is a coin flip proposition for just the "average bettor" who doesn't know anything about the game.

[magwell]

That has to be one of the most ridiculous statements I have read in my entire life. A 4/5 shot in a race has to go up against 7 or 8 other horses. A football game is a coin flip proposition for just the "average bettor" who doesn't know anything about the game. Thats way funny you just made my point.......:lol:

[Valuist]

Does the "average bettor" fare any better betting on the horses?

Gambling profits are not possible for the "average bettor"...no matter WHAT his game of choice is.

It's a universal law...

Thaskalos is 100% correct. If bettors avoid the parlays and teasers, they have a legit shot. Breakeven is around 52%.

[ManU918]

Thaskalos is 100% correct. If bettors avoid the parlays and teasers, they have a legit shot. Breakeven is around 52%.

He obviously has no clue what he is talking about. Comparing betting a football (-110) game to betting a 4-5 shot in a race is like comparing Hitler to Mother Teresa.

[magwell]

He obviously has no clue what he is talking about. Comparing betting a football (-110) game to betting a 4-5 shot in a race is like comparing Hitler to Mother Teresa. I'm embarrassed for you, for that statement...... sad

[lsbets]

I think in this envoriment, it is insane to deal with any gambling site that is violating US laws. I lost money with Full Tilt Poker. Learn from my mistake, I know I did. How do you know if the government shuts them down that they will have enough cash to make their account holders whole again.

That's why you shouldn't leave any more on a site than you are comfortable losing. There are still a number of poker sites that take US players and have good (for the industry) turnaround times on payouts. They don't have the traffic of Stars or Tilt, but they have some terrible players and easy cash games. Some of these sites are primarily sportsbooks. Deposit what you are comfortable losing if the money gets taken, and withdraw your winnings on a regular basis. Its not insane to play, but it is insane to leave a bankroll on any site that you cannot afford to lose.

[ManU918]

I'm embarrassed for you, for that statement...... sad

You compared watching a football game to betting a 4/5 shot and waiting 3 hours for the race to end. I'm embarrassed to hold a conversation with such a square.

[magwell]

You compared watching a football game to betting a 4/5 shot and waiting 3 hours for the race to end. I'm embarrassed to hold a conversation with such a square. I'm going to assume you mean I'm a square shooter.... by calling those "sucker bets".......:D