What are the "BRIS Pace Figures?"

[thoroughbred]

Bloodstock provides "BRIS Pace Figures" for the internal and late calls.

My key question is: what are they, i.e., what do they tell us?

It would also be helpful, if someone could tell me how they are derived by Bloodstock.

Thanks

[BillW]

Originally posted by thoroughbred
Bloodstock provides "BRIS Pace Figures" for the internal and late calls.

My key question is: what are they, i.e., what do they tell us?

It would also be helpful, if someone could tell me how they are derived by Bloodstock.

Thanks

T'bred,

Here is the Bris FAQ:

http://www.bris.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=pace

Bill

[cj]

At the risk of offending some who use programs that incorporate those figures, they are very weak. I don't know how they come up with some of the variants they use or compare track to track, but I'd rather use nothing than use the BRIS pace numbers.

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
At the risk of offending some who use programs that incorporate those figures, they are very weak. I don't know how they come up with some of the variants they use or compare track to track, but I'd rather use nothing than use the BRIS pace numbers.


PRETTY BOLD STATEMENT TO SAY BRIS FIGS ARE "VERY WEAK".

WHOSE FIGS DO YOU USE AND RECOMMEND?

JustMissed

[takeout]

I would be afraid to put much faith in anyone's numbers not knowing how they were made. Just the mistakes one sometimes finds in the supposedly factual value added stuff is scary enough.

[cj]

I use my own, so I know exactly how they are made. I used BRIS pace figures in the past, and they never made much sense. I've compared them to my own in present times, and they are obviously computer generated with little or no human interaction. I've seen races where there was an obvious strong wind that is not accounted for in the BRIS numbers. I've seen many races where I have the "race shape" as very slow early in comparison to the final speed figure, and BRIS will have it just the opposite. Even the closers will have faster pace times than final figures. I've been doing this a long time, and most times I know I'm right. Not every time of course, but more often than not it proves it in the future performances of the horses.

I knew I'd probably ruffle some feathers, but its just my opinion, take it for what its worth. I will say this...if I thought they were any good at all, I'd have a lot of extra time on my hands each week that I currently spend on my own programs and pars. I don't make speed figs anymore because there is no value. The Beyers are very good, they are free, so why waste my time? If someone comes out with a good pace figure, I'll stop making those too. But as of now, noone does, at least for free, and that includes BRIS. I've heard some good things about ITSs new ratings, but just haven't had a chance to give them a good look.

[cj]

The main flaw I see is this:

A pace figure by itself is meaningless. It should be viewed in context alongside the final, or speed, figure.

The BRIS numbers rate each fraction the same regardless of distance. They think a horse who runs 4f in a 6f race and a horse who runs 4f in a 9f race are equal in "pace" ability if they run the same 4f time. No way in hell! Using this flawed logic, how can they make a decent pace variant? Making pace variants is different, and thoroughly more difficult, than making a final time variant.

[GEM85]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
The main flaw I see is this:

A pace figure by itself is meaningless. It should be viewed in context alongside the final, or speed, figure.



Cjmilkowski: I agree, their figures are not 100% perhaps they are not even 20% however, as a longshot indicator they are good...Perhaps, you would like to take a look at the total pace rating figure, and see how they do at the tracks you play.
I use this rating by itself along with the current odds, and had good luck with longshot winners and complementary to exotics.
My two cents

[BillW]

Originally posted by GEM85
Cjmilkowski: I agree, their figures are not 100% perhaps they are not even 20% however, as a longshot indicator they are good...Perhaps, you would like to take a look at the total pace rating figure, and see how they do at the tracks you play.
I use this rating by itself along with the current odds, and had good luck with longshot winners and complementary to exotics.
My two cents

GEM85,

Which figure are you refering to? I have used the Bris data in the past and use the TSN data now, but I'm not familiar with a total pace figure.

Bill

[GEM85]

Bill:
All you have to do is add all E1, E2, and Late pace figures...the different programs I use will do this automatically; However, you could do it manually.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
I use my own, so I know exactly how they are made. ...

If someone comes out with a good pace figure, I'll stop making those too. ...


I make my own Speed and Pace Figures and They are not that great ... they will get better.

I use the BRIS Method for my pace numbers which are adjusted by a fraction of the Final Time variant ... not good on a windy day!

But I have worked with someone else on making Pace Pars and i can't see the concept's value. Pace depends so much on the horses in each race and the strategies of the connections that making Pars seems to be a futile endeavour. Gross indicators are often misleading so how are finely tuned misleads any better?

Fleww

[sjk]

Brian,


I think you will definitely benefit by adjusting your pace number for differences between different segments of the track.

[BillW]

Originally posted by GEM85
Bill:
All you have to do is add all E1, E2, and Late pace figures...the different programs I use will do this automatically; However, you could do it manually.
GEM85,

A flaw I see in that calculation came up in an earlier disucssion of calculating a turn time using Bris figs.

E1 is 0 to 2f
E2 is 0 to 4f

But (2*E2 - E1) does not equal the 2f to 4f figure because the values of E1 are based on 2f pars and the values of E2 are based on 4f pars. That is an E1 point does not equal an E2 point. And further the scaling is different from track to trackbecause the pars are not in proportion.

This is not saying that the number is totally useless (horses with bgiier numbers probably are better in general) but it is different than for example;

in a 6f race

1st fraction + second fraction + stretch

I think Craig was addressing the accuracy of the standalone figures which are computer generated and prone to the problems computer generation entails. Combining them into complex values opens a whole new can of worms.

Bill

[cj]

Originally posted by BillW
GEM85,

...I think Craig was addressing the accuracy of the standalone figures which are computer generated and prone to the problems computer generation entails. Combining them into complex values opens a whole new can of worms.

Bill

I was actually referring to both, but I'm not always the best about getting my point clear. I think the stand alone numbers are poor, but I also think they are worthless if they aren't on the same scale as the final figures, which BRIS's explanation says they are not. Without a final figure to put the pace figure in context, it is pretty meaningless in my opinion. If the final figure is made differently and from a different scale, it is misleading at best.

Nearly any horse can run a huge pace number if they are gunned from the gate, but how they finish after the quick pace is hugely important.

One other thing, the best, most perfect numbers in the world will never be able to quantify pressure from other horses. I've seen horses alone on the lead set a 110 pace and finish with a 115 final figure, but put that same horse in a race with only a 100 pace figure, but sandwich him between two other horses, and he'll be lucky to finish before the start of the next race. Numbers don't tell the whole story, ever! (and I'm a numbers guy, big time!)

[sjk]

CJ and Bill,

I am of the black box persuasion, so you will not be suprised at my point of view. I do quantify the difference between a horse running in the clear and one running with company. I use this as an adjustment to the horses's speed figure.

I also use past pace figures relative to today's company to adjust his probability of winning, based on the chances of him getting an easy, unpressured trip today.

Of course there are horses that do not run as expected, but I don't need to win every race to be successful.

[Speed Figure]

I disagree 100% with anyone saying that there figures are worthless.

[andicap]

I agree with Speed FIgure. I used BRIS for a while and found them satisfactory with my pace methods. I added E1+E2+LP+ the FT and got quite a useful figure. (Average pace with heavier weight on early). I just use it in a different way than most people.

I find HTR's to be better and easier to use, but I think you can do OK with BRIS.

I agree with Michael Pizzolla up to a point in that figures don't have to be 100% accurate to make money. There are so many inaccuracies built into the system from the get-go, from chart callers to problems inherent in making an accurate variant that all figures are compromised in some degree (tho the Sheets people do go to extraordinary lengths to be more precise for speed figs.)

Is it better to have more precise figs? Of course, but I found BRIS to be OK. There are better ones and of course making your own helps (if you are good at it). But BRIS is quick and economical.

[cj]

Now you guys have forced my hand, I'll have to download a BRIS card and compare it to mine. Look for it within a week. I'll post what I find before the races are run.

[cj]

Satisfactory and OK don't cut it for me when I'm betting real money. If BRIS were more open about how the numbers were made I'm sure I could use them, but until that day, no thanks. Too many numbers don't make sense.

[thoroughbred]

BillW,

Thanks for the link to the FAQ about BRIS pace figures. It answered my questions. Much appreciated.

[Tom]

If you cannot stand sticking push pins into your forehead, then making pace figures is the next best thing :D

Tough job and you need to use your noggin' when you look at the times. If one race has a very fast pace time and the horse that set it collapsed and finished dead last, it just might not be good to use that one in your pace variant. Changing winds can wreck hovac with your variants as can timer malfunctions.
But when you go through the pains of making your own pace numbers, you have already handicapped the days races in a way that you cannot do just looking at PPs.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by Tom
snip...
But when you go through the pains of making your own pace numbers, you have already handicapped the days races in a way that you cannot do just looking at PPs.

yes but by the time you create the pars, the races are over :confused: and they won't let you bet anymore ...

i don't bet NY so maybe ...

:D

Fleww

[GEM85]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski

I've seen horses alone on the lead set a 110 pace and finish with a 115 final figure, but put that same horse in a race with only a 100 pace figure, but sandwich him between two other horses, and he'll be lucky to finish before the start of the next race. Numbers don't tell the whole story, ever! (and I'm a numbers guy, big time!)

CJ..You nailed it.

A little SUPER HUGE item most people don't take into consideration is the simple fact that a Thoroughbred is an ATHLETE, and how he feels come race time will make or break any and all figures.

my two cents.

[GEM85]

Originally posted by BillW

A flaw I see in that calculation came up in an earlier disucssion of calculating a turn time using Bris figs.

Bill

Bill:
The figures are not acurate enough to be used without the support of other figures. The computer program with this rating will be telling me bet this horse, and I will double check it with another program and a glance at the PP's.

The addition of all pace ratings is an indication of a horse's ability
to finish the race first...it just happens that there are times when the first, second or third rated horse goes off at high odds and it merits further consideration and a bet. This is my longshot indicator.

my two cents