Successful Bettors

[Pell Mell]

Mind you, I'm not talking about the mythical whales that seem to abound.

I have several, I'll call them friends, that make good scores quite often...they don't handicap much and when they do they usually lose.

What they seem to do right is to not try to get cute..they use the all button almost every time they bet, whether it's verticle or horizontal bets.

For instance; I have one friend that contacts me when he's in a betting mood, which is usually only when there are big races running...yesterday he asked me who I liked for the Travers and I told him ST should win...he then asks for a longshot and I told him J W Blue

He proceeds to put ST on top and wheel JW in the other 2 slots with ALL! Bingo!...and he doesn't play tris for a buck...He probably won't play again until the JGC and BC day is a big day of betting for him..

As I said, I know several like that and they make some great scores and seldom get burned because they use that all button..
Personally I get burned all the time by trying to handicap too deep...it's all about the betting and the betting is best with the all..

This is just what I see happening all the time with guys that make nice scores. :cool:

[thaskalos]

Mind you, I'm not talking about the mythical whales that seem to abound.

I have several, I'll call them friends, that make good scores quite often...they don't handicap much and when they do they usually lose.

What they seem to do right is to not try to get cute..they use the all button almost every time they bet, whether it's verticle or horizontal bets.

For instance; I have one friend that contacts me when he's in a betting mood, which is usually only when there are big races running...yesterday he asked me who I liked for the Travers and I told him ST should win...he then asks for a longshot and I told him J W Blue

He proceeds to put ST on top and wheel JW in the other 2 slots with ALL! Bingo!...and he doesn't play tris for a buck...He probably won't play again until the JGC and BC day is a big day of betting for him..

As I said, I know several like that and they make some great scores and seldom get burned because they use that all button..
Personally I get burned all the time by trying to handicap too deep...it's all about the betting and the betting is best with the all..

This is just what I see happening all the time with guys that make nice scores. :cool:
Forget about the "all" button...I say.

The memories of those "nice scores" long outlive the money garnered from them...

I dare say that if those "friends" of yours were really as successful using the "all" button as they appear to be...they would play the game a little more frequently than they do now.

[castaway01]

Thask is right...it all sounds good when they only tell you about the scores, but if you total up the reality of their betting I'd wager it's not so pretty. There are no secret remedies, like use the "All" button. You just have to work with what you know and it work for you.

[tbwinner]

The ALL button is very useful in some cases.

At Arlington they frequently write Mcl10000 or even less formful IL statebred Maiden 10s...the ALL button is your friend there because prices are huge when other than the 2 favorites win them in the horizontals.

ALLs are useful in tough Pick 3 or Pick 4 segments too, spreading to ALL in a pick 5 or pick 6 may be a bit too costly. On Pick3/4 segments with a leg where there is a heavy favorite that may be vulnerable, I may do two tickets, with one having the heavy favorite singled and the other ticket having ALL in that leg in attempt to cash when the fav doesn't win. This is particularly useful if you have the other 2-3 legs having mid to high priced horses (6-1 and up) so you'll cash twice and probably make money even if the fav comes in.

[Pell Mell]

Forget about the "all" button...I say.

The memories of those "nice scores" long outlive the money garnered from them...

I dare say that if those "friends" of yours were really as successful using the "all" button as they appear to be...they would play the game a little more frequently than they do now.

Your totally wrong! These guys are not gamblers or handicappers...they are VERY successful businessmen and are recreational bettors...they enjoy horseracing, not as an everyday pastime, but as a days fun on the big days..

They don't worry about paring their bets to save a few bucks...they don't bet more than they can afford...in other words,..they have plenty of bucks which makes them a hell of a lot smarter than most of us..JMO

[cj]

Forget about the "all" button...I say.

The memories of those "nice scores" long outlive the money garnered from them...

I dare say that if those "friends" of yours were really as successful using the "all" button as they appear to be...they would play the game a little more frequently than they do now.

I would agree. By using the "All" button, you are basically conceding the takeout on that leg of the bet. Every bet should be a value bet, and the all button has to reduce the value of any bet by the takeout. There are probably a few times to use it, most of those being a Pick 6 with a carryover, but that is about it.

[gm10]

I would agree. By using the "All" button, you are basically conceding the takeout on that leg of the bet. Every bet should be a value bet, and the all button has to reduce the value of any bet by the takeout. There are probably a few times to use it, most of those being a Pick 6 with a carryover, but that is about it.

I disagree with this. It's not because you are diluting positive value that you are creating negative value.

[PhantomOnTour]

With 10 cent supers i frequently use the ALL button in the 4 hole.
Didn't a famous handicapper say that "even filth can run fourth"?

[cj]

I disagree with this. It's not because you are diluting positive value that you are creating negative value.

This was a typo:

has to reduce the value of any bet by the takeout.

Should say this:

has to reduce the value of any bet by a portion of the takeout.

I'm not sure how anyone could disagree. Adding a leg to a bet that you are going to lose the takeout long term (in reality more than the takeout as betting every horse does) has to decrease the value of any bet including it.

Betting every horse in a race in North America will lose you upwards of 25%. How is adding that to any bet not going to hurt?

[cj]

With 10 cent supers i frequently use the ALL button in the 4 hole.
Didn't a famous handicapper say that "even filth can run fourth"?

The only real advantage is that you can play 10 cents. Otherwise, in reality, you are playing trifectas. You are exploiting the all button to bet dimes on tris.

[gm10]

With 10 cent supers i frequently use the ALL button in the 4 hole.
Didn't a famous handicapper say that "even filth can run fourth"?

That's spot on. The probability of any horse running 3rd or 4th is usually an estimator with a wide standard deviaton.

[gm10]

This was a typo:



Should say this:



I'm not sure how anyone could disagree. Adding a leg to a bet that you are going to lose the takeout long term (in reality more than the takeout as betting every horse does) has to decrease the value of any bet including it.

Betting every horse in a race in North America will lose you upwards of 25%. How is adding that to any bet not going to hurt?

Not necessarily. If you've got two strong value bets in -say- the first and third race of a pick 3, then you can still be better off diluting your pick 3 than not betting it just because the middle race doesn't offer any value.
Also, you don't just need to be good at estimating the winning probability of a horse. You also need to have a handle on how reliable your winning probabilities are in each race.

[PhantomOnTour]

The only real advantage is that you can play 10 cents. Otherwise, in reality, you are playing trifectas. You are exploiting the all button to bet dimes on tris.
I'm not playing trifectas...I'm handicapping trifectas and playing supers. If I hit the mythical tri I hit the real super. And the ALL is sometimes used in the 3 and 4 hole on two separate tix on the same race.
Goes without saying that not all super combos only have 10cents on them; just the longest of bombs.

[magwell]

Not for nothing..... but I've never been able to find the ALL button......:rolleyes:

[raybo]

Why waste money on the "All" button when you're betting 1,2,3, or more horses that you've already "X'ed" off the ticket. If you can't "X" horses, you're in trouble, forget about trying to find good horses.

The only time I would ever consider using the "All" button would be when that button covers only the horses who deserve to be on my ticket. I'll never include a horse that I have "X'ed" off.

[cj]

Not necessarily. If you've got two strong value bets in -say- the first and third race of a pick 3, then you can still be better off diluting your pick 3 than not betting it just because the middle race doesn't offer any value.
Also, you don't just need to be good at estimating the winning probability of a horse. You also need to have a handle on how reliable your winning probabilities are in each race.

I would counter you are better just betting your two strong value bets to win.

[Stillriledup]

While on the one hand you're correct that you're initially conceeding the takeout, i would say that if you have some sort of 'edge' that one of the short priced contenders is totally overbet, you gain some of that 'concession' back.

Not too many people are using the ALL button in a race where they love the heavy favorite and think he's a cinch.

[Stillriledup]

The ALL button could also be called the mental health button. It depends on your state of mind (and state of bankroll) to NOT put yourself in a position to have to hide all the sharp objects.

ALL is good in certain situations, but i don't think its a good habit to get into. I'd suggest going all but 1 or 2. Toss out a couple of horses and go mostly-all, at least that way, you won't be automatically conceeding the takeout.

[cj]

While on the one hand you're correct that you're initially conceeding the takeout, i would say that if you have some sort of 'edge' that one of the short priced contenders is totally overbet, you gain some of that 'concession' back.

Not too many people are using the ALL button in a race where they love the heavy favorite and think he's a cinch.

If you really believe that, don't use the short priced contender...thus not an all.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

There is a time for "all bets"

I like to do it in the middle or end of a pick 3 with a maiden claimer race, or on an off track with a race with a bunch of mules somewhere in a p3 or p4..Sometimes you get a BIG one in the middle, and it makes your payouts skyrocket.

Say you like the 1 and 3 in race 1..and the 2 and 4 look great in the 2nd..8 horses all crap in the 3rd race..not a bad play for 32 bucks...

13/24/ALL...ive hit them for well over a grand for 32 on many occasions this way.

[Stillriledup]

If you really believe that, don't use the short priced contender...thus not an all.

I agree, but, i think a lot of people who think its a wide open race will just toss in the favorite 'just in case'. Not too many people are going 'all except the favorite' but you're right, that would be the proper strategy.

[Pell Mell]

The same guy I mentioned in post #1 invested a couple Gs on Belmont day and used the all button a couple of times in the pick 4...picked up 35 Gs and never would have done it without the all...:cool:

[Robert Goren]

I almost never play supers, but I am not sure that you can really handicap for fourth place. If you going to be leaving horses out the four hole, I would think it would be the shorter priced horses. I am also not at sure that a super is bet by the public like a tri with one spot more to pick. I also not sure about the relationship between P3s and P4s. I am sure that the public at large does not approach a P6 like it was two P3 hooked together.

[thaskalos]

With 10 cent supers i frequently use the ALL button in the 4 hole.
Didn't a famous handicapper say that "even filth can run fourth"?
By the same token...any horse that can finish fourth can also finish third, and ruin our trifecta tickets...and any horse that can finish third can also finish second, and destroy our exacta plays.

So what!

The emphasis of the "successful bettor" is not on winning particular races; he plays this game for the "long run".

He structures his exotics plays according to his handicapping opinions...and he is not overly concerned about any lost wagers that might ensue along the way.

That's the cost of doing business...and also the reason why we employ proper money management methods.

[gm10]

I would counter you are better just betting your two strong value bets to win.

Sometimes that will be the case, but certainly not all the time. Playing two value horses at reasonable prices in the first and last leg already creates a lot of value in itself, regardless of what wins the other. Not just because you only pay one take-out, but also because the exotic markets are far from efficient. There was an article posted here a few months ago. Having two winning longshots in a pick 3 pays something like 50% more than it should.

[thaskalos]

Your totally wrong! These guys are not gamblers or handicappers...they are VERY successful businessmen and are recreational bettors...they enjoy horseracing, not as an everyday pastime, but as a days fun on the big days..

They don't worry about paring their bets to save a few bucks...they don't bet more than they can afford...in other words,..they have plenty of bucks which makes them a hell of a lot smarter than most of us..JMO
I don't understand the point that you are trying to make with this thread.

You have chosen to title this thread "Successful Bettors"...and you use as protagonists some "recreational bettors"...who are neither "gamblers nor handicappers", in order to make your point.

Are these the "successful bettors" that you want to inform us about?

Surely you are not telling us, that a bunch of non-handicapping recreational players - armed with your selections and the "all" button - are finding success in this...the toughest gambling game in existence?

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

first of all, in this case, you gave them the right horses. I guess knowing you is key to the method :D

that they didn't fark it up seems to be their claim to fame.

[Stillriledup]

I don't understand the point that you are trying to make with this thread.

You have chosen to title this thread "Successful Bettors"...and you use as protagonists some "recreational bettors"...who are neither "gamblers nor handicappers", in order to make your point.

Are these the "successful bettors" that you want to inform us about?

Surely you are not telling us, that a bunch of non-handicapping recreational players - armed with your selections and the "all" button - are finding success in this...the toughest gambling game in existence?

This is a good post. These 'successful bettors' are guys who just bet when they're in the mood than they call up someone and say " who do you like "?

These people arent long run winning players, no way they can be, if the game was this easy, many more people would be doing it.

[Pell Mell]

I don't understand the point that you are trying to make with this thread.

You have chosen to title this thread "Successful Bettors"...and you use as protagonists some "recreational bettors"...who are neither "gamblers nor handicappers", in order to make your point.

Are these the "successful bettors" that you want to inform us about?

Surely you are not telling us, that a bunch of non-handicapping recreational players - armed with your selections and the "all" button - are finding success in this...the toughest gambling game in existence?

Not exactly...not saying it's my selections that make them winners...what I'm saying is they seem to make the right moves at the right time..
it has been stated a million times on this forum that handicapping is only 1/2 of the problem and the other 1/2 is making the proper bet...so what I'm saying is that these guys are only playing on big race days usually and they don't fool around much with trying to pick winners out of all the races played...they get a key horse or 2 and IF it wins they are going to collect, period!...there's none of that if I had only used this one or that one stuff..my whole point is that I see these guys hit some really big scores by using the damned all button..
they bet the triple crown races like the derby, preakness, belmont, breeders cup, etc...other than that, they don't bother with the track...I guess they are too busy making real money...if they lose a few grand for the day it doesn't bother them and they don't chase their money...I don't wish to argue the point and I don't care what the take is or any other point about what is the proper way to beat this or that mathematical barrier...

my only point I wished to make is that I know for a fact that they make bigger scores than any handicappers I know and it seems to happen just because they aren't afraid to hit the all button..case closed.

[raybo]

By the same token...any horse that can finish fourth can also finish third, and ruin our trifecta tickets...and any horse that can finish third can also finish second, and destroy our exacta plays.

So what!

The emphasis of the "successful bettor" is not on winning particular races; he plays this game for the "long run".

He structures his exotics plays according to his handicapping opinions...and he is not overly concerned about any lost wagers that might ensue along the way.

That's the cost of doing business...and also the reason why we employ proper money management methods.

Couldn't agree more!

Through many years of research, I have found that with Trifectas and Superfectas, there is a direct relationship between ticket cost and profit, or lack thereof. The liberal use of the "All" button, in either, will lead to non-profitability, without a doubt.

One must find the correct ticket structure for each race (field), and that structure must reflect, in it's cost, both the expected, and the potential payout for each particular race.

I disagree, strongly, that the 4th row in supers must contain all remaining horses in the field. More often than not, the 4th horse is not some nag that just had the 4th spot given to him/her, but rather one of the contenders for the top 3 finish positions. Likewise the show position, with the contenders for the top 2 positions.

Sure sometimes a "who'd a thought it" will run on the ticket, but, as Thas stated, that's the cost of doing business. You must play for the long term and expect many more misses than hits. But, in the super, especially, one can make a handsome long term profit, with a very small hit rate.

[Valuist]

For every time you hear about use of the "all" button snagging that impossible to use 40-1 shot into the tri, how about all the times the 2-1 chalk ends up being the "other" horse in the tri and the value gets killed?

The guys who I've met who do this for a living have no problem spreading out deep in exotics, but they don't use the all button.

[pondman]

There are probably a few times to use it, most of those being a Pick 6 with a carryover, but that is about it.

Or if you've single out a 25-1 shot on the nose, and want to go with an exacta, or tri. I do it infrequently, but I've done it. But that's after or second in nature to putting a cannon on the nose.

Other than that, I'd say the "All" button is the road to financial ruin.

[Broad Brush]

Using the "All" button everytime is not a good proposition.

But, there are times when it is the thing to do.

When there is a race in which you feel the top 3 choices are beatable
or look the same as the rest it can be a good move.

Also, races where the horses are trying something unknown:
first time turf, first time off-track or first time going long--these can be
great times to use the "All" button. These races produce results that
a lot of times cannot be predicted.

[classhandicapper]

I'm with CJ on this one.

Most of the best horse players I know think mostly about "value" instead of probability of winning before betting a horse to win, but when it comes to multi race bets their thinking shifts a bit toward trying to "hit the bet".

IMO, no matter what kind of bet you make, your primary concern should be getting good value on each and every ticket/combination.

When you use the all button, you are more or less admitting you can't add any value in that leg. So if it's a pick 4 you should probably just bet a pick 3, double, or horses to win and play against a lower take.

This is one of the reasons I don't bet many multi race bets. I see no point to bucking a higher take unless I can actually add value across several consecutive races. Unfortunately, that's not the case very often.

The Pick 6 with a carry over is a little different, but even there, I suspect that most players are playing WAY TOO MANY combination trying to hit the bet. If your bankroll can't support the long losing streaks, then you probably shouldn't be playing the bet.

[fmolf]

I'm with CJ on this one.

Most of the best horse players I know think mostly about "value" instead of probability of winning before betting a horse to win, but when it comes to multi race bets their thinking shifts a bit toward trying to "hit the bet".

IMO, no matter what kind of bet you make, your primary concern should be getting good value on each and every ticket/combination.

When you use the all button, you are more or less admitting you can't add any value in that leg. So if it's a pick 4 you should probably just bet a pick 3, double, or horses to win and play against a lower take.

This is one of the reasons I don't bet many multi race bets. I see no point to bucking a higher take unless I can actually add value across several consecutive races. Unfortunately, that's not the case very often.

The Pick 6 with a carry over is a little different, but even there, I suspect that most players are playing WAY TOO MANY combination trying to hit the bet. If your bankroll can't support the long losing streaks, then you probably shouldn't be playing the bet.
i have a racetrack aquaintance who is very selective..only plays certain p3's..what he looks for is a solid favorite in a race with vulnerable favorites or wide open chaotic races on either side or in the previous two races or the next two.the wya he plays is a/all/all...or all/a/all...or all/all/a i only hear about his successes,but i do not see him betting a lot.This is an interesting method based on selectivity and patience..

[gm10]

I'm with CJ on this one.

Most of the best horse players I know think mostly about "value" instead of probability of winning before betting a horse to win, but when it comes to multi race bets their thinking shifts a bit toward trying to "hit the bet".

IMO, no matter what kind of bet you make, your primary concern should be getting good value on each and every ticket/combination.

When you use the all button, you are more or less admitting you can't add any value in that leg. So if it's a pick 4 you should probably just bet a pick 3, double, or horses to win and play against a lower take.

This is one of the reasons I don't bet many multi race bets. I see no point to bucking a higher take unless I can actually add value across several consecutive races. Unfortunately, that's not the case very often.

The Pick 6 with a carry over is a little different, but even there, I suspect that most players are playing WAY TOO MANY combination trying to hit the bet. If your bankroll can't support the long losing streaks, then you probably shouldn't be playing the bet.

For once I have to disagree with you. The value of a multi-race bet is not simply the sum of the values of the individual selections. That assumes that a Pick 3 is a Pick 3 is a Pick 3. It's not. For example, a longshot x fav x fav pick 3 is a worse value proposition than a fav x fav x longshot pick 3. Two favs and a longshot in both cases, but the place of the longshot in the sequence matters.

You've also got to incorporate the predictability of the entire sequence. Most bettors feel uncomfortable leaving out more than one favorite in their exotic bets. If you think that a few races are likely to be won by a longer price, by all means press ALL in those races. Maybe you are including 20% negative value, but the combination of two winning longshots will probably offset that 20%.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting ALL is always the way to go, but I certainly think it is a valid option each time you are structuring your exotic bets.

[classhandicapper]

For once I have to disagree with you. The value of a multi-race bet is not simply the sum of the values of the individual selections. That assumes that a Pick 3 is a Pick 3 is a Pick 3. It's not. For example, a longshot x fav x fav pick 3 is a worse value proposition than a fav x fav x longshot pick 3. Two favs and a longshot in both cases, but the place of the longshot in the sequence matters.



I don't disagree with you (even though I don't have many insights along these lines), but the bottom line is still that you want all your individual tickets to have positive expected value. IMO, most players change gears when they play multi race bets because they are way more concerned with hitting the bet than they are when they make individual win bets. So they tend to include all the contenders (even those that are very over bet) and hit the ALL button when they don't have any insights.

I used to do that kind of thing myself when I played multi races bets.

[gm10]

I don't disagree with you (even though I don't have many insights along these lines), but the bottom line is still that you want all your individual tickets to have positive expected value. IMO, most players change gears when they play multi race bets because they are way more concerned with hitting the bet than they are when they make individual win bets. So they tend to include all the contenders (even those that are very over bet) and hit the ALL button when they don't have any insights.

I used to do that kind of thing myself when I played multi races bets.

This is the key point which I disagree with. Value can be created in more ways than one. Have a read through this for example. http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

[classhandicapper]

This is the key point which I disagree with. Value can be created in more ways than one. Have a read through this for example. http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf

I assume you are right, but the point is irrelevant to what I am saying.

I don't care how you find value.

My point is that people are often including lots of tickets of bad value when they are very liberal with the ALL button and using all the contenders.

[classhandicapper]

I assume you are right, but the point is irrelevant to what I am saying.

I don't care how you find value.

My point is that people are often including lots of tickets of bad value when they are very liberal with the ALL button and using all the contenders.

I should add one other thing. The idea that multi race bets provide better value because they typically pay more than the parlay is the greatest fallacy at the racetrack these days.

People talk about dividing the take over 3 races, 4 races etc... That's nonsense.

Multi race bets typically pay more than the parlay because when you play a parlay you are actually betting massively more money than in the same multi race bet. So even though the take is lower, the sequence produces greater net losses on average. However, it will still be at a BETTER ROI than the multi race bet.

The only argument for mult race bets is that when you have multiple value oriented opinions (no matter where they come from) because that can create COMPOUND value that will blow away the win pools.

[magwell]

This is the key point which I disagree with. Value can be created in more ways than one. Have a read through this for example. http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf Thanks for this, I found it very interesting.....:ThmbUp:

[raybo]

The whole point of parlays versus the "picks" is that you can wait for individual value races, you're not stuck with any 3, 4 or 6 race sequences, and you're not at the mercy of the "smart", and/or, money flushed, crowd, when the payout is dolled out.

[classhandicapper]

The whole point of parlays versus the "picks" is that you can wait for individual value races, you're not stuck with any 3, 4 or 6 race sequences, and you're not at the mercy of the "smart", and/or, money flushed, crowd, when the payout is dolled out.

I understand your point, but in the end it's all about the track take and your ability to find value.

Playing a parlay does absolutely nothing for you in terms of becoming a winning player or improving your ROI. All you are doing is betting progressively higher amounts hoping to nail a few in a row and make a big score. At the end of the day, your profits/losses with be related to the track take and your skill.

Unrelated to your comment, the point I have been making is that comparing the parlay to the Pick (X) as a way of demonstrating better value in the Pick (X) races is WRONG, very misleading, and a mathematical fallacy.

The reason the Pick (X) pays more than a parlay is that it's $2 taxed once at the higher rate. The parlay is $2 taxed once at the lower rate, then the winnings get taxed again, then the winnings get taxed again etc...

You are investing WAY MORE than $2 in the parlay and getting taxed on it.

HOWEVER......that comparison is simply WRONG!

If you have a $100 bankroll and your choice is the pick 4 or the win pools, you have to compare a $100 investment to a $100 investment, not a $100 investment to a $400 investment ($100 on each horse) or an even bigger investment in the parlay.

The question to ask is should I bet $100 on some Pick 4 combinations or should I bet a "total of $100" on various horses to Win in that sequence.

If you make that "valid" comparison....

The Pick 4 or Pick 6 player will lose 26% of everything he bets on the Pick 4 or 6.

The Win player will lose 16% (in NY) of everything he bets to Win.

Win betting is the better value!!!

Here's the ONLY reason to make multi race bets.

Multi race bets afford the opportunity for very skilled players to find certain combinations across multiple races that are extremely under bet relative to the chances of the horses. So the value can become so great it can overcome the higher take of the bet and become a better wager than a Win bet on each of the horses.

Comparing the parlay price to the Pick 4 or Pick 6 price is a very misleading piece of information about the values of the relative bets and why multi race bets can present good opportunities. Even though the Pick (x) bet usually pays more than a parlay, at the end of the day "the average" multi race player loses a lot more than the average win better for every dollar invested.

[raybo]

I should add one other thing. The idea that multi race bets provide better value because they typically pay more than the parlay is the greatest fallacy at the racetrack these days.

People talk about dividing the take over 3 races, 4 races etc... That's nonsense.

Multi race bets typically pay more than the parlay because when you play a parlay you are actually betting massively more money than in the same multi race bet. So even though the take is lower, the sequence produces greater net losses on average. However, it will still be at a BETTER ROI than the multi race bet.

The only argument for mult race bets is that when you have multiple value oriented opinions (no matter where they come from) because that can create COMPOUND value that will blow away the win pools.

Agreed, and my original post regarding parlays, was versus "picks" using the "All" button. You're much better off, in the long run, not using the "All" button. Parlays are only one way of making smarter wagering decisions.

[Pell Mell]

I don't understand the point that you are trying to make with this thread.

You have chosen to title this thread "Successful Bettors"...and you use as protagonists some "recreational bettors"...who are neither "gamblers nor handicappers", in order to make your point.

Are these the "successful bettors" that you want to inform us about?

Surely you are not telling us, that a bunch of non-handicapping recreational players - armed with your selections and the "all" button - are finding success in this...the toughest gambling game in existence?

Yeah! They're doing something you probably couldn't do in a million years...they don't get into a bunch of mathematical theories about take and value and all that other bullshit...they just use common sense and take the money and run..you don't think they give it back like you would do you? :p

[Stillriledup]

Yeah! They're doing something you probably couldn't do in a million years...they don't get into a bunch of mathematical theories about take and value and all that other bullshit...they just use common sense and take the money and run..you don't think they give it back like you would do you? :p


Don't take it personally, Thas is just wondering how you know several people who arent full time pro's who are long term winners. Top pro's struggle to win, so its fascinating to some people to know that there are several people (all who you know) who can just 'show up and win' at will.

[thaskalos]

Yeah! They're doing something you probably couldn't do in a million years...they don't get into a bunch of mathematical theories about take and value and all that other bullshit...they just use common sense and take the money and run..you don't think they give it back like you would do you? :p
To tell you the truth...I am getting a little tired of all this speed/pace handicapping "bullshit"...and all the value hunting that I have been wasting my time with all these years...

Is there any chance that you might consider taking me on as a subscriber?

I'd like to get some of that easy money too...:p

[Pell Mell]

Why do you guys take everything the wrong way? It seems that all you are interested in is to prove someone is wrong and you are right.

All I said was that I know a few people that make big scores by using the all button. Just take a look at all the 3 yr old stakes this year. In just about all those races there were longshot winners. If you had the winner and used the all button you would have made a score. This one particular guy had Arch on top both times he won @ 15/1. He hit the all button in the pick 4 with the Belmont. So what is wrong with a casual bettor doing that and making a score?

I didn't say they or I was a super handicapper...they just play on the big race days and have hit nice scores all year. In my book that makes them successful bettors. If a guy makes 50 Gs in a year as a casual bettor who uses the all button doesn't that make him successful? If not, then please explain what makes a successful bettor!

[Pell Mell]

To tell you the truth...I am getting a little tired of all this speed/pace handicapping "bullshit"...and all the value hunting that I have been wasting my time with all these years...

Is there any chance that you might consider taking me on as a subscriber?

I'd like to get some of that easy money too...:p

Sorry, I don't take on people who are already so successful that they know all there is to know, so you are out. :rolleyes:

[castaway01]

Why do you guys take everything the wrong way? It seems that all you are interested in is to prove someone is wrong and you are right.

All I said was that I know a few people that make big scores by using the all button. Just take a look at all the 3 yr old stakes this year. In just about all those races there were longshot winners. If you had the winner and used the all button you would have made a score. This one particular guy had Arch on top both times he won @ 15/1. He hit the all button in the pick 4 with the Belmont. So what is wrong with a casual bettor doing that and making a score?

I didn't say they or I was a super handicapper...they just play on the big race days and have hit nice scores all year. In my book that makes them successful bettors. If a guy makes 50 Gs in a year as a casual bettor who uses the all button doesn't that make him successful? If not, then please explain what makes a successful bettor!

I don't think it's a matter of "taking things the wrong way". It's a matter of not agreeing with you that a casual bettor really improves their standing that much by using the "All" button. They're mostly just vastly increasing ticket cost by including horses they don't actually like and hoping to get lucky. And sure, sometimes you get lucky. You mention one hit that someone had, but not the 100 times it didn't work and burned money. I don't believe that the "All" button helps financially, though it does have psychological benefits because you'll have more "winning" tickets. A better ROI though? I don't think so.

[Pell Mell]

I don't think it's a matter of "taking things the wrong way". It's a matter of not agreeing with you that a casual bettor really improves their standing that much by using the "All" button. They're mostly just vastly increasing ticket cost by including horses they don't actually like and hoping to get lucky. And sure, sometimes you get lucky. You mention one hit that someone had, but not the 100 times it didn't work and burned money. I don't believe that the "All" button helps financially, though it does have psychological benefits because you'll have more "winning" tickets. A better ROI though? I don't think so.

Look, I, as a handicapper, almost never hit the all button. In races like the derby and belmont and a lot of the other big races this year, you tell me who picked winners like AK or ROI or Arch..If the all button wasn't hit these guys would have never scored...what I'm saying is that if they like a long one they are not letting the score get away. And, how many of you have liked a 20/1 winner and didn't get the tri or super because another 20/1 ran 2nd. If you like a long one on top in those big races with the huge pools and don't use the all your never going to hit one of those monster pay offs. You can be cute and broke at the same time, very simple.

[beefas]

Its those big pay outs that make my day..i love to put a bomber on top ..if i feel he has a chance to win i dont care if he"s 100-1..im playing him, and when its a 7 horse field i will hit the ALL BUTTON...My first move is $100 to win...then if theres another horse with bid odds that i feel can get there ALL ABOARD.. :cool:

[thaskalos]

Sorry, I don't take on people who are already so successful that they know all there is to know, so you are out. :rolleyes:
I don't know everything about this game, Pell Mell...far from it.

In fact...the biggest truth about this game, as far as I am concerned, is that it will forever keep you humble.

I may not have been involved in the game for 60 years, like you...but I have been doing this for a very long time too...and I have more than paid my dues.

I have come to this board NOT to seek customers for my selections service, nor to prove how smart I may be...but rather to share what I may know about this great but frustrating game of ours. And if I can help even ONE player, by making his journey as a horseplayer a little less rocky that mine has been...then that's reward enough for me.

As a long-time player, I have had the dubious pleasure of meeting more than my share of loudmouthed "wiseguys".

They enjoy advertising how loooong they have been playing this game...and how many admiring followers they have gained along the way.

They trash the handicapping opinions of other well-meaning players...and exude an air of superiority, as if they are privy to some "secret" knowledge, not known to anybody else.

"Figure" handicapping is a joke to them...and all the "figure" handicappers out there are "suckers" and "fools".

And if any of those "figure" players out there claim to have some success while playing this game...well, then you can go ahead and add "LIARS" to the list as well...

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have success by "handicapping", these wiseguys say...

Success seems to be reserved only for THEMSELVES...and for those lucky few who follow their picks.

Of course...when they post those picks on Paceadvantage.com ahead of time...well, you know...

[Pell Mell]

I will just color you green and place you on the ignore list that PA was thoughtful enough to provide. :lol:

[thaskalos]

I will just color you green and place you on the ignore list that PA was thoughtful enough to provide. :lol:
I, on the other hand, would never even THINK of placing you on my "ignore" list.

I wouldn't want to miss out on any of those profitable picks of yours...when you see fit to resume posting them here on this board.

As a "figure" player...I need every edge I can get.

[cj]

Of course...when they post those picks on Paceadvantage.com ahead of time...well, you know...

I had to check and see. I wondered why the picks had stopped.

Pell Mell picks, 8-11 to 8-26

Top selection
36-2 52.20 ROI -27.5%

$2 Exactas top pick over others
248 178.80 -27.9%

$1 Exactas others over top pick
124 9 -92.7%

$2 Exacta boxes
24 0 -100%

$1 Tris
24 0 -100%

$1 Supers
108 0 -100%


Before I get asked why "pick on Pell Mell", this is from his blog:

"Horse Forums (http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/2011/06/horse-forums.html)


There are a few horse racing forums on the internet and I've visited most of them. For the most part they are friendly places where folks get together to express their opinions and select winners.
There is one however, that to enter is to step into a war zone, which in reality means; if you don't subscribe to speed and pace handicapping your regarded as a Neanderthal. They, and only they, have the answers to any and all questions regarding horse racing in any size shape or form
There are numerous characters on there that sell speed and pace ratings and various other useless stuff. A real bunch of hucksters whose main claim to fame is to try to discredit or defame anyone who isn't in the clan. Here's the kicker though, nobody on there actually offers anything constructive, but they do spend an inordinate amount of time trying to tear other people and their ideas apart.

I have been trying for some time to figure the motivation of these kooks and have finally decided it's the colors on the website which are mostly green, as in envy. They are all jealous of anyone with an original idea and are really pissed that they didn't think of it, but most of all, they envy anyone who might be successful ACTUALLY making money by betting. They may be hawking numbers and ratings but that's a far cry from actually picking the winners of races.

Now here's what's really funny. I have had a service for a number of years that bettors subscribe to and I send them my daily selections. Many of these subscribers have been with me for quite a few years. They just pay a monthly fee and they get the plays by e-mail. I have a couple of players that I don't even charge because they send me a % of their winnings. If they didn't make money I don't think they would be paying my fee for years. BUT WHAT I LOVE is that I keep picking up subscribers from that horse racing site. Now that's really funny. "

[Tom]

Ouch!

[Pell Mell]

I had to check and see. I wondered why the picks had stopped.

Pell Mell picks, 8-11 to 8-26

Top selection
36-2 52.20 ROI -27.5%

$2 Exactas top pick over others
248 178.80 -27.9%

$1 Exactas others over top pick
124 9 -92.7%

$2 Exacta boxes
24 0 -100%

$1 Tris
24 0 -100%

$1 Supers
108 0 -100%


Before I get asked why "pick on Pell Mell", this is from his blog:

"Horse Forums (http://backstretchtalks.blogspot.com/2011/06/horse-forums.html)


There are a few horse racing forums on the internet and I've visited most of them. For the most part they are friendly places where folks get together to express their opinions and select winners.
There is one however, that to enter is to step into a war zone, which in reality means; if you don't subscribe to speed and pace handicapping your regarded as a Neanderthal. They, and only they, have the answers to any and all questions regarding horse racing in any size shape or form
There are numerous characters on there that sell speed and pace ratings and various other useless stuff. A real bunch of hucksters whose main claim to fame is to try to discredit or defame anyone who isn't in the clan. Here's the kicker though, nobody on there actually offers anything constructive, but they do spend an inordinate amount of time trying to tear other people and their ideas apart.

I have been trying for some time to figure the motivation of these kooks and have finally decided it's the colors on the website which are mostly green, as in envy. They are all jealous of anyone with an original idea and are really pissed that they didn't think of it, but most of all, they envy anyone who might be successful ACTUALLY making money by betting. They may be hawking numbers and ratings but that's a far cry from actually picking the winners of races.

Now here's what's really funny. I have had a service for a number of years that bettors subscribe to and I send them my daily selections. Many of these subscribers have been with me for quite a few years. They just pay a monthly fee and they get the plays by e-mail. I have a couple of players that I don't even charge because they send me a % of their winnings. If they didn't make money I don't think they would be paying my fee for years. BUT WHAT I LOVE is that I keep picking up subscribers from that horse racing site. Now that's really funny. "

What has that got to do with this thread? You proved my point, all you want is a chance to attack some one..**** you and the horse you rode in on!~!!

[cj]

What has that got to do with this thread? You proved my point, all you want is a chance to attack some one..**** you and the horse you rode in on!~!!

Threads take all sorts of twists and turns. It wasn't an attack, it was a factual representation of your selections. Your blog entry was an attack.

I'll be the first to admit that you played a lot of long priced horses and a two race winning streak could put you easily in the black. That is the way the game goes. But I would also say that most of the horses you picked didn't hit the board, and many ran dismally.

[skate]

why press the "ALL" button when you can "SELL" this information on Specifics?;)

be Factual:cool:

[skate]

Don't take it personally, Thas is just wondering how you know several people who arent full time pro's who are long term winners. Top pro's struggle to win, so its fascinating to some people to know that there are several people (all who you know) who can just 'show up and win' at will.

what pell mell said was ;
I have several, I'll call them friends, that make good scores quite often...they don't handicap much and when they do they usually lose.

What they seem to do right is to not try to get cute..they use the all button almost every time they bet, whether it's verticle or horizontal bets.


So.... the fascination you refer along with the "just show up and win at will" is from what? :)

[Stillriledup]

what pell mell said was ;
I have several, I'll call them friends, that make good scores quite often...they don't handicap much and when they do they usually lose.

What they seem to do right is to not try to get cute..they use the all button almost every time they bet, whether it's verticle or horizontal bets.


So.... the fascination you refer along with the "just show up and win at will" is from what? :)

The title of the thread is 'successful' bettors. To me, that means people who are long term winners. Also, the OP makes it seem that these guys just show up once in a while, they're not at the track every day putting hours into the handicapping and betting process. Maybe i read into it wrong, but what i got out of it is that the OP was trying to say he knows several people who don't put full time work into this game and 'make it look easy'.

Maybe that's not what he was trying to convey, if not, i apologize for interpreting this wrong.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't know everything about this game, Pell Mell...far from it.

In fact...the biggest truth about this game, as far as I am concerned, is that it will forever keep you humble.

I may not have been involved in the game for 60 years, like you...but I have been doing this for a very long time too...and I have more than paid my dues.

I have come to this board NOT to seek customers for my selections service, nor to prove how smart I may be...but rather to share what I may know about this great but frustrating game of ours. And if I can help even ONE player, by making his journey as a horseplayer a little less rocky that mine has been...then that's reward enough for me.

As a long-time player, I have had the dubious pleasure of meeting more than my share of loudmouthed "wiseguys".

They enjoy advertising how loooong they have been playing this game...and how many admiring followers they have gained along the way.

They trash the handicapping opinions of other well-meaning players...and exude an air of superiority, as if they are privy to some "secret" knowledge, not known to anybody else.

"Figure" handicapping is a joke to them...and all the "figure" handicappers out there are "suckers" and "fools".

And if any of those "figure" players out there claim to have some success while playing this game...well, then you can go ahead and add "LIARS" to the list as well...

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have success by "handicapping", these wiseguys say...

Success seems to be reserved only for THEMSELVES...and for those lucky few who follow their picks.

Of course...when they post those picks on Paceadvantage.com ahead of time...well, you know...This reply was, in one word, AWESOME!

It's super scary how tuned in you are to the mindset that is Pell Mell. He'll go around badmouthing this website on his blog and the people that comprise it, and yet he'll complain that he himself always attacked because he's not a "speed/pace" guy.

All of a sudden, having a different opinion or disagreeing with someone is now classified as an "attack."

It's comical. Especially when Pell Mell himself "attacks" many of the members of this board for daring to handicap in a way he himself does not approve...

[lamboguy]

my uncle preached to me when i was young, that a person that uses systematic paterns will always do better than the person that rely's on instincts. even though i am not a number and pace guy in this game i have plenty of respect for those that do things based on paterns and numbers. the fact that i am no good at using numbers and pace figures does make me a lesser handicapper than most here. my result is that i am not able to play as many races as others can. that is why i am still up at this time of night trying to figure out harness racing in balmoral and quarter horse racing in los al. i am ready to start australia in a few moments. i may not bet a race the rest of the night, but i am going through the motions, just in case something comes up that fits my personal model, and take notes of the races in case i can use them in the future.

[Stillriledup]

my uncle preached to me when i was young, that a person that uses systematic paterns will always do better than the person that rely's on instincts. even though i am not a number and pace guy in this game i have plenty of respect for those that do things based on paterns and numbers. the fact that i am no good at using numbers and pace figures does make me a lesser handicapper than most here. my result is that i am not able to play as many races as others can. that is why i am still up at this time of night trying to figure out harness racing in balmoral and quarter horse racing in los al. i am ready to start australia in a few moments. i may not bet a race the rest of the night, but i am going through the motions, just in case something comes up that fits my personal model, and take notes of the races in case i can use them in the future.

There's more than one way to win, if you win, you're doing it 'right' regardless of how you pick your winners and make your bets.

[PaceAdvantage]

There's more than one way to win, if you win, you're doing it 'right' regardless of how you pick your winners and make your bets.And it's amazing that those that bash speed figures, pace figures, computer programs, etc. can't understand this.

I don't recall any of the speed, pace, or computer guys starting a thread about why Pell Mell's methods suck or can't possibly win...yet I see guys like Pell Mell pop up from time to time to tell the speed, pace or computer guys what is lacking in their method ("well, your computer program can't possibly tell you how the horse is feeling today, or how it looks in the paddock....")

DUH! Does it need to in order to make money?

Obviously not.

[Stillriledup]

And it's amazing that those that bash speed figures, pace figures, computer programs, etc. can't understand this.

I don't recall any of the speed, pace, or computer guys starting a thread about why Pell Mell's methods suck or can't possibly win...yet I see guys like Pell Mell pop up from time to time to tell the speed, pace or computer guys what is lacking in their method ("well, your computer program can't possibly tell you how the horse is feeling today, or how it looks in the paddock....")

DUH! Does it need to in order to make money?

Obviously not.

YES! There's no wrong way to win!

Betting horses is like MMA fighting, the object is to kick the Bejesus out of the other guy by any means possible.

[Pell Mell]

Thanks Fellas!

That was easier than I thought it would be...and a sizable bet it was...:jump: :jump: :jump:

[lamboguy]

in a parimutual world, everything can work until everyone does the same thing. when track varients were not found in the telegraph or racing form you could beat this game just by keeping track of the changes. before the racing form italisized the horses that are next out winners, people could figure out which were the bettor races.before everyone got ragozin or therograph numbers, you could beat this game just using those. today there are computer groups that hit pools at the last minute to gain valure, now there are plenty of guys doing the exact same things, that value becomes underlay's, the point is that if you want to win at this game you have to use your own personal skills, stick with them,and hope that nobody else figures out those skills. i

its exactly the same in equity markets throughout the world. i remember beating the markets using fibornacci expansion contraction numbers. today everyone has them. i remember trading markets not that long ago as a sos bandit, today the market makers don't put up 1000 shares to get nailed either way. the newest thing today is highfrequency trading for large hedgerfunds and money managers, this day will pass too. i think that all good things come and go eventually.

[cj]

Thanks Fellas!
That was easier than I thought it would be...and a sizable bet it was...:jump: :jump: :jump:


Hopefully it gets you close to even after that string of unfortunate horses you posted here.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks Fellas!

That was easier than I thought it would be...and a sizable bet it was...:jump: :jump: :jump: You don't even realize that you are more closed-minded and stubborn than those you rail against here...

[Pell Mell]

Being as the Hopeful stakes was the last of the big races at SAR this weekend, I suppose some of those stupid "Casual Bettors" showed up again...on top of that, there were probably some of those idiots that hit that damned all button again.

You would think they would wise up and take some of that money they've won and invest it on some lessons from the pros about hitting that all button...after all, by hitting that all button in all the TC races and other 2-3 yr old races, I doubt if they made enough to last more than 5 yrs of betting those weekend races... I guess they don't realize how dumb they are as they laugh all the way to the bank...:lol: :lol: :lol:

[cj]

Judging by your blog picks, they obviously weren't your customers.

[Pell Mell]

Judging by your blog picks, they obviously weren't your customers.

Picky, picky....you will note that I didn't discount the winner...in fact, on the thread for 2 yr olds, I had 3 horses and the winner was one of them...

One thing I have noticed...people on here seem to defer to you and your figures but I don't recall ever seeing you give selections for the races except for your supposedly astute pace and speed analysis after the fact...show some balls and start making some pre-race selections. :sleeping:

[cj]

Picky, picky....you will note that I didn't discount the winner...in fact, on the thread for 2 yr olds, I had 3 horses and the winner was one of them...

One thing I have noticed...people on here seem to defer to you and your figures but I don't recall ever seeing you give selections for the races except for your supposedly astute pace and speed analysis after the fact...show some balls and start making some pre-race selections. :sleeping:

I've given plenty of prerace selection here over the years.

[Sinner369]

Isn't the race track a true reflection of the free market system? The one of the few remaining capital markets where you make what you put into it?

You do not have to have a diploma, a degree, a journeymen's ticket, experience or anything...........just yourself.

It's up to you to exploit the inefficiencies of this market..........!!!

[rubicon55]

I agree, finding wagering or betting pool inefficiencies is a strong and profitable angle. I have been at this game a long time as well as many others and I am always still learning something each and every race. One thing I have learned as a bettor is keep what works for you and get rid of the rest. Perfect and refine your model. I believe if your method is not profitable then don’t be afraid to change or tweak it even if it means (gulp) to give less credence to once what you thought were immutable truths. Even Andy believed his early discoveries and profits would be eventually become diluted or weakened.

[pondman]

Top pro's struggle to win, so its fascinating to some people to know that there are several people (all who you know) who can just 'show up and win' at will.

Top pro's? Who are they?

A successful better:
Shows up when there is a good bet-- a bet that has an observational reason to be made, and isn't for action. It works for me.

Why insist everyone is a loser?

[skate]

welp...seems to me that to use an 'All' would depend on odds (the higher the better) and the amount you want to bet.

At times you'll note an exacta can pay horrible and if caught in time you can play a tri for a big pay out.

I'd sure enough be pissed if i left out 2 or 3 horses instead of pressing the 'All'.

I have to laugh, thinking that anyone with enough money power, would play a tri or Super while having just one horse in each position.

and if you were to add a horse in the third position, then why not add two or three or more?

To me, if i have two higher odds horses, among other plays, i'd play my picks in the first, second and third spots, along with the 'All'.