Database question

[Harmonicaslim]

Do favorites in Allowance and Stakes routes win more often than faves overall in all categorys? Was hoping one of you databse guys could check for me. My measley database only does ML faves, not final odds faves.

Thanks,
Slim

[sjk]

type fav win pct Avg field size
Mdn Spl and NW Alw 37.75% 8.17
Open Clm 35.11% 7.94
Mdn Clm 37.02% 8.84
Stk and Open Alw 39.85% 7.53
NW Clm 35.17% 8.44

[TrifectaMike]

type fav win pct Avg field size
Mdn Spl and NW Alw 37.75% 8.17
Open Clm 35.11% 7.94
Mdn Clm 37.02% 8.84
Stk and Open Alw 39.85% 7.53
NW Clm 35.17% 8.44

sjk,

Can you fill in the following chart using your database:

Field Size
1st FavWin% 2nd FavWin% 3rd FavWin% 4th FavWin% Total Races

If possible field size from 4 to 12.

Thanks,
Mike (Dr Beav)

[sjk]

field size fav 2nd fav 3rd fav 4th fav number of races
4 49.58% 26.55% 16.24% 7.62% 3608
5 44.79% 24.63% 15.45% 9.96% 19570
6 39.98% 23.66% 15.64% 10.51% 54672
7 37.89% 22.26% 15.08% 10.58% 72962
8 35.82% 21.42% 14.61% 10.43% 68129
9 34.27% 20.24% 14.07% 10.26% 55319
10 32.68% 19.63% 13.95% 10.24% 54846
11 31.19% 19.91% 13.47% 9.93% 20688
12 30.55% 18.35% 13.37% 9.71% 19609

[sjk]

field fav 2nd fav 3rd fav 4th fav number of races
4 49.58% 26.55% 16.24% 7.62% 3608
5 44.79% 24.63% 15.45% 9.96% 19570
6 39.98% 23.66% 15.64% 10.51% 54672
7 37.89% 22.26% 15.08% 10.58% 72962
8 35.82% 21.42% 14.61% 10.43% 68129
9 34.27% 20.24% 14.07% 10.26% 55319
10 32.68% 19.63% 13.95% 10.24% 54846
11 31.19% 19.91% 13.47% 9.93% 20688
12 30.55% 18.35% 13.37% 9.71% 19609

Same as above. Tried to align

[TrifectaMike]

field fav 2nd fav 3rd fav 4th fav number of races
4 49.58% 26.55% 16.24% 7.62% 3608
5 44.79% 24.63% 15.45% 9.96% 19570
6 39.98% 23.66% 15.64% 10.51% 54672
7 37.89% 22.26% 15.08% 10.58% 72962
8 35.82% 21.42% 14.61% 10.43% 68129
9 34.27% 20.24% 14.07% 10.26% 55319
10 32.68% 19.63% 13.95% 10.24% 54846
11 31.19% 19.91% 13.47% 9.93% 20688
12 30.55% 18.35% 13.37% 9.71% 19609

Same as above. Tried to align

sjk,

Below is s series of rank distributions (theoretically derived). The fidelity is remarkable. The rank distributions are general in nature, and not limited to horse racing. The only requirement is that the items can be ranked in descending order.(for example no ten worst).


Field Size Rank Order
N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4 0.52 0.27 0.15 0.06
5 0.46 0.26 0.16 0.09 0.04
6 0.41 0.24 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.03
7 0.37 0.23 0.16 0.11 0.07 0.04 0.02
8 0.34 0.21 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02
9 0.31 0.20 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.01
10 0.29 0.19 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
11 0.27 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
12 0.26 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01


If you are up to it, let's perform an experiment. Let's see if we can produce a profit, using the following odds cutoffs (the cutoffs are actually underlays based on my chart for Rank of 1)

Betting the favorite as an underlay


N Bet (Odds <=)
4 0.55
5 0.71
6 0.87
7 1.02
8 1.17
9 1.31
10 1.45
11 1.59
12 1.72


Mike (Dr Beav)

[sjk]

NO HORSES return
4 -0.08
5 -0.10
6 -0.15
7 -0.13
8 -0.13
9 -0.14
10 -0.15
11 -0.15
12 -0.14

[TrifectaMike]

NO HORSES return
4 -0.08
5 -0.10
6 -0.15
7 -0.13
8 -0.13
9 -0.14
10 -0.15
11 -0.15
12 -0.14

Interesting and quick too. So, the natural question to ask is there a profit to be made betting the Rank 2 and Rank 3 horses when the Rank 1 is an underlay based on the above bet Rank 1 chart.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[rosenowsr]

Hello guys, newbie here. May I be so forward (and maybe impolite) to ask you what software that is, that you are using for these statistics. It looks very interesting. I would like to look into purchasing such software.
Thanks, hope i didn't break any forum rules by asking.

[sjk]

TM,

Betting on these horses is no worse than the take so I would not take this as an endorsement of betting against them.

Rosenowsr,

I have written my own software rather than using commercially available stuff. It takes more time, effort and money than most people would be willing to invest in building a database.

[rosenowsr]

Thank you for the reply SJK.
Getting the database is not a big problem, finding and learning how to use the software to interpret it, that is the bigger problem for me.
By the way, this forum is great. Thanks for letting me be a TROLL. LOL

[TrifectaMike]

TM,

Betting on these horses is no worse than the take so I would not take this as an endorsement of betting against them.


Understood. Thanks for the data.

Mike (Dr Beav)