Picks for Saturday, 8/27

[Ray2000]

Go West tonight (avoid Irene)

Betting Win if odds > 3/1 and Key Box Exactas

Balmoral R8.........7,1 Candy N Apples-7/2 - Fox Valley Praline-2/1
Chalky Exacta Box 17 but could try on top 2348 in 10¢ superfecta 17/17/2348/2348

Balmoral R9.........3 w/1,5,9 .Dawn's Mist-12/1
If Marcus had a good day at DuQuoin Here's a good longshot for the evening

Hazel Park R8.......7 w/2,6 ...Paragon-5/1
Great Win % for a 9yo, 16for40 last 2 years. Make front..don't look back

Indiana R8..........1 w/3,4 ...Free Bird Mindale-5/1
"P" driver Tyler Smith guided 11 yo gelding well last out for win.
Top Drivers Widger and Wrenn on 2 and 7 will attract the bettors, 3/1 on the "P"?

Northfield R12......2 w/1,4,7 ...Genesis See Yah-6/1
Moves up NW200->NW300 but can repeat with Dan Noble from this post

Mohawk Late Pick4...12 tkts (Top drivers here tonight, Canadian Pacing Derby elims)
R9....927..Meirs Hanover bounced off that 1:48-4 LTM on Aug 13 de-bounce tonight?
R10...56...Alexie Mattosie - Art Professor ...everyone's doublet here
R11...64...All Tiger N w/Ron Pierce and Gotcha Covered
R12...6....Last Call Hanover My single in this Pick4


Good Luck Everyone

[Sinner369]

Ray I'm not out to put anyone down but the Mohawk picks seems to gave your system the most trouble..........am I correct?

[Ray2000]

Sinner369
You're correct, Mohawk is near the bottom performance of my Picks
Last night was a good example of this
This is for 2007-2011, (at least 500 races)


Track Wagered Win ROI
PPK $1,142 29.1%
MEA $2,024 17.8%
YR $3,698 17.2%
HAR $1,230 15.4%
CHST $2,248 14.3%
FLMD $1,776 11.3%
PCD $1,324 10.8%
NFLD $2,196 9.7%
LON $1,168 7.6%
All $43,566 6.6%
DD $1,700 5.4%
MAY $1,092 4.8%
FHLD $1,224 3.0%
MR $1,810 1.1%
WDB $2,016 -2.9%
RIDC $1,466 -3.3%
MOH $1,604 -6.8%
CALX $1,122 -8.1%
STGA $1,492 -9.4%
BigM $1,466 -9.7%


For my picks that I post here at PACE, I usually use races where the system's (robot) pick is not in the Morning Line top 3 and yet is given a Win chance of > 25%. I then take a look the program and toss out any silly picks and try to come up with a comment on why the system "likes" this pick.

Problem is.... the system has fallen apart, and finding confident picks is almost impossible. The attached graph shows the profit performance of this set of system picks for $2 WIN (black line), $1 EXACTA a/bc (green line), and $1 TRIFECTA a/bc (blue line) for 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 2011. The time line covers ~22,000 races. Win/Ex Profit turned negative ~Oct 2010.

Since the strike rate has not fallen off significantly, I blame this down-turn on the amount of 'Expert' information (both free and sold) available on the web, the number of bots playing the game, and the disappearance of 'not-so-smart' money as new players are attracted elsewhere, i.e. Casinos.

I wonder if others are experiencing this recent difficulty in trying to Make-a-Buck?

[Sinner369]

Ray:

I have to put myself in the same category as your robots.......the two tracks that gave me the most problems are Mohawk (includes Woodbine) and the Meadowlands.

I don't know the reason WHY except that perhaps is the quality......ie/ they take turns beating each other!

[mrroyboy]

I am having trouble with Meadowlands too. Thankfully their meet is over

[Ray2000]

Yes

Not only are you playing against the most skillful/knowledgeable players, but nothing goes un-noticed and replays get broadcast all over the net at posttime. Value prices are just too hard to find there.

To illustrate, here's a link to Derick Giwner's article at Harness Eye where he explains his success at TIOGA.

http://www.harnesslink.com/harnesscharts.Published%20Features/


Of course the trade-off is you simply can't bet into small pools with big money, but playing in the black is a lot more fun. :)



.

[LottaKash]

Sinner369
This is for 2007-2011, (at least 500 races)

I wonder if others are experiencing this recent difficulty in trying to Make-a-Buck?

These are my best tracks....:jump: ......PPK... MEA... CHST...PCD... WDB $RIDC-(only on Sundays)... MOH

These days, it is strictly "guerilla warfare" for me.... Many fewer plays per day than in past years....


P.S.

RAY, love the Robot pix....I am glad to see him finally....He is famous in these parts, you know........Go "Ray's Robot"... !!!

best,