Shackleford

[Track Phantom]

No way he gets beat in the Travers...

Have you ever seen a horse approaching 2 million in earnings who has been favored only once in his career...but double digits 3 times?

Gets no respect. Race sets up perfectly this time.

http://www.trackphantom.com/

[ManU918]

I'm with you. I think he gets to the lead sets somewhat slow fractions and pulls away (Well that's what I'm hoping for). We just have to hope for a clean break.

[oddsmaven]

I respect him...bet him in the Preakness and Belmont...but I don't much like him today...anyone who says "no way" he can lose has an interesting perspective, considering Stay Thirsty comes into the Travers a very sharp horse now.

[ManU918]

I respect him...bet him in the Preakness and Belmont...but I don't much like him today...anyone who says "no way" he can lose has an interesting perspective, considering Stay Thirsty comes into the Travers a very sharp horse now.

I'm not saying he cant lose, this is horse racing anything can happen. But I really love his chances today.

[Tom]

I'm waiting to see PA's picks - he and Shackleford text each other. ;)

[skate]

I'm waiting to see PA's picks - he and Shackleford text each other. ;)


one of them being a bit slow, might be the weight?

[Edward DeVere]

Shackleford is one of the most misridden (is that a word?) horses in history.

[toussaud]

he's just not that good.


there are horses like this every year that fool people. he never was a good horse.

everyone @ gulfstream talked about how game of a race he ran but in retrospect how crappy was that Florida derby field was? he was the 2nd best of a crappy field.

The Preakness, show me 1 2 turn horse int hat race outside of Animal kingdom and i will give you a cookie. He was lucky Animal kingdom did not take to the track.

The Haskell was just a crappy field. And he got exposed today

I mean, relativity he's not a bad horse and i would love to own him. But he's no hard spun.


Just because you run in the money hell, just because you WIN a race doesn't mean you took to the distance. Look no further than JP's gusto's Futurity win for proof of that. He's just better than the horses behind him but it doesn't make him good

[Robert Fischer]

he's just not that good.


there are horses like this every year that fool people. he never was a good horse.

everyone @ gulfstream talked about how game of a race he ran but in retrospect how crappy was that Florida derby field was? he was the 2nd best of a crappy field.

The Preakness, show me 1 2 turn horse int hat race outside of Animal kingdom and i will give you a cookie. He was lucky Animal kingdom did not take to the track.

The Haskell was just a crappy field. And he got exposed today

I mean, relativity he's not a bad horse and i would love to own him. But he's no hard spun.


Just because you run in the money hell, just because you WIN a race doesn't mean you took to the distance. Look no further than JP's gusto's Futurity win for proof of that. He's just better than the horses behind him but it doesn't make him good

ouch , can't say I agree with much of this.

sometimes horses run well or run poorly depending on different factors, and there isn't always a broad brush to generalize with.

[papillon]

he's just not that good.

there are horses like this every year that fool people. he never was a good horse.

everyone @ gulfstream talked about how game of a race he ran but in retrospect how crappy was that Florida derby field was? he was the 2nd best of a crappy field.

The Preakness, show me 1 2 turn horse int hat race outside of Animal kingdom and i will give you a cookie. He was lucky Animal kingdom did not take to the track.

The Haskell was just a crappy field. And he got exposed today

I mean, relativity he's not a bad horse and i would love to own him. But he's no hard spun.

Just because you run in the money hell, just because you WIN a race doesn't mean you took to the distance. Look no further than JP's gusto's Futurity win for proof of that. He's just better than the horses behind him but it doesn't make him good

that is a little bit unfair.

who has said shack is the second coming of hard spun?

most just seem to think he is a gutsy horse--a nice speed horse with heart--who's pretty hard not to like. it seems to me, from what i've read, most acknowledge shack's limitations but just really appreciate his determination. i haven't really seen anyone say that they weren't concerned that 1 1/4 was at the far end of shack's range.

shack has soundly beaten stay thirsty twice, and been soundly beaten by stay thirsty twice, so if stay thirsty is the best of this crop, than shack can't be far behind. (btw, if shack was 2nd best of a crappy florida field, what does that make stay thirsty, who finished something like 7th in the same "crappy" field?). shack may not be "that good," but none of them seem to be "that good" this year tbh.

plus if shack was lucky that AK didn't take to pimlico, then stay thirsty must have been equally lucky that coil didn't take to saratoga and that shack had a melt down, not to mention that saratoga is his favorite track. luck has always been part of the game, no?

stay thirsty's final time was slow. he deserves credit for hanging with shack through a 1.11 and change 3/4, but he didn't win going away in the stretch, he won by grinding it out, and out lasting everyone else--his final time, compared to the internal fractions shows that...his final furlong was run in what? something like 26 seconds...so if the haskell was a crappy field, than the travers was an equally crappy field, since it was made of of the haskell field and an bunch of allowance winners.

i don't like that romans is pointing shack towards the jcgc, but at a mile an quarter over churchill's main track, i like shack better than i like stay thirsty, even if i'd prefer shack be entered in the dirt mile and even if i don't really like either one over one of the older males or even blind luck, or even if i'd really prefer that he be given a rest.

[toussaud]

i never said stay thirsty is the best of this crop, in fact i'm on record as to saying on this very forum I think Stay thirsty is a NY horse. Take him outside of NY and i don't think he will run a lick.

This game is about opinions, and 'm not one to be very "diplomatic". Being diplomatic cost me too much money becuase i have keep all the horses on tickets becuase they could do this or that.. my opinion is that shackleford is a tweener, a horse not fast enough to win the best sprints, but can't run far enough to win the best handicap races. Heck, if you go back and look at his "gutsy" Florida derby run what was the beyer maybe a 92? the horse is slow and has been running against hyped horses slower than he is, but against any horse that has a resemblance of a grade 1 pulse i will chose that horse and make shack beat me.

Stay Thirsty is a grade 1 horse in NY. I do not think that's the case outside of NY.

They will keep him in NY probably for the JCGC as a final prep in which i think if he doesn't win he will run really well and get bet down at churchill and proceed top run up the track.

[classhandicapper]

IMO Shackleford could use a vacation. He ran in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown, the Haskell and now the Travers. Along the way he had a few brutal stretch drives where he gave it everything he had. I think his Travers performance was so sub par, he's telling his connections to freshen him up.

[cj]

IMO Shackleford could use a vacation. He ran in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown, the Haskell and now the Travers. Along the way he had a few brutal stretch drives where he gave it everything he had. I think his Travers performance was so sub par, he's telling his connections to freshen him up.

I agree, he has clearly tailed off since the Preakness. You could blame the distance in the Belmont, but his Haskell was weak and his Travers even worse.

[thespaah]

IMO Shackleford could use a vacation. He ran in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown, the Haskell and now the Travers. Along the way he had a few brutal stretch drives where he gave it everything he had. I think his Travers performance was so sub par, he's telling his connections to freshen him up.
I agree.

[toussaud]

you say he needs a vacation but there is no doubt in my mind if the spotted the horse in say the indiana derby or the super derby he would win next out.

What he really needs is a class drop.

[cj]

you say he needs a vacation but there is no doubt in my mind if the spotted the horse in say the indiana derby or the super derby he would win next out.

What he really needs is a class drop.

The horse barely lost the G1 Florida Derby, won the G1 Preakness, and ran very well in the G1 Kentucky Derby. He clearly doesn't have that form right now. What is the point of dropping a G1 winner in class? He needs a break.

[toussaud]

The horse barely lost the G1 Florida Derby, won the G1 Preakness, and ran very well in the G1, Kentucky Derby. He clearly doesn't have that form right now. What is the point of dropping a G1 winner in class? He needs a break.


the logical fallicy you are making is that just beucase a race has a grade 1 beside the name does not make it a grade 1 race. i don't consider any of those races even the derby a grade 1 race this year. the horses were sprinters running in big races becuase they had the graded stakes earnings.

riddle me this batman. since all of those "grade 1" races in the triple crown trail were so great, why is it outside of stay thirsty, which i have already said, and i think is been established, is just a different horse in NY than anywhere else, the next best finished horse in the race was ruler on ice on ice in a well beaten forth?

shackleford= up the track, was beaten by at least 15 lengths as was bowmans causeway, Ruler on ice was beaten approx 7 lengths, in other words, none of these triple crown runners ran a step, but people keep betting them becuase they "ran in or won the derby" who gives a damn honestly if a horse out lasted a bunch of sprinters in a grade 1 race.

He in reality, is a grade 2/3 calibur horse IMHO, and a dang good one, but not a grade 1 horse. that's what he needs, a class drop. The longer they keep fooling themselves that he is a grade 1 race, the more damage they are going to do

show me one thing he has done that a grade 1 cliabur horse has done? almost beat a miler in the Florida derby lol whiile runnig a lower beyer than prime cut did in a freaking allowance race at fair grounds beating bind? staggered home to win the Preakness in the slowest time since 1968 lol? get beat by a nose by a horse that is probably just now rounding the turn in the travers and got beat by a 23 to 1 shot in the swaps?

the factor, uncle (no) mo, stay thirsty in new york, animal kingdom, those are grade 1 calibur horses and all of them would maul shakleford.

[cj]

the logical fallicy you are making is that just beucase a race has a grade 1 beside the name does not make it a grade 1 race. i don't consider any of those races even the derby a grade 1 race this year. the horses were sprinters running in big races becuase they had the graded stakes earnings.

riddle me this batman. since all of those "grade 1" races in the triple crown trail were so great, why is it outside of stay thirsty, which i have already said, and i think is been established, is just a different horse in NY than anywhere else, the next best finished horse in the race was ruler on ice on ice in a well beaten forth?

shackleford= up the track, was beaten by at least 15 lengths as was bowmans causeway, Ruler on ice was beaten approx 7 lengths, in other words, none of these triple crown runners ran a step, but people keep betting them becuase they "ran in or won the derby" who gives a damn honestly if a horse out lasted a bunch of sprinters in a grade 1 race.

He in reality, is a grade 2/3 calibur horse IMHO, and a dang good one, but not a grade 1 horse. that's what he needs, a class drop. The longer they keep fooling themselves that he is a grade 1 race, the more damage they are going to do

show me one thing he has done that a grade 1 cliabur horse has done? almost beat a miler in the Florida derby lol whiile runnig a lower beyer than prime cut did in a freaking allowance race at fair grounds beating bind? staggered home to win the Preakness in the slowest time since 1968 lol? get beat by a nose by a horse that is probably just now rounding the turn in the travers and got beat by a 23 to 1 shot in the swaps?

the factor, uncle (no) mo, stay thirsty in new york, animal kingdom, those are grade 1 calibur horses and all of them would maul shakleford.

Well, I'll keep this short because it is getting late, but Animal Kingdom hardly mauled Shackleford. If you don't think the Preakness and Florida Derby are true G1s, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

He is off form, it really isn't that hard to see. This is how I have his races rated, starting with the Florida Derby:

108, 106, 106, 99, 99, 89

The horse ran three pretty big races and is now tailing off. Sometimes people look too deep. He could probably be given a pass for the Belmont because of the distance, though in retrospect maybe it wasn't only that, but the Haskell was weak both visually and figure wise. He was expected to continue to regress in the Travers and he did. He needs a rest. He has been in training for about a year without a break and is still a young horse.

[BIG49010]

Shack has a very different stride from a normal good horse, I think his confirmation has finally got the best of him.

The Little Guy pointed out today, the Travers was a very honestly run race with solid fractions, I'm not sure you could say that about the Triple crown races.

[toussaud]

Shack has a very different stride from a normal good horse, I think his confirmation has finally got the best of him.

The Little Guy pointed out today, the Travers was a very honestly run race with solid fractions, I'm not sure you could say that about the Triple crown races.
define "different" just more curious than anything

[Bettowin]

I saw Shack in the paddock before the Travers and he looked much the best but after the race coming back to be unsaddled he looked very very tired. Tired as in it's been a long hard season for him and the Travers was the last straw. I am no expert in body language but he really was saying that's it for now.

[Spalding No!]

you say he needs a vacation but there is no doubt in my mind if the spotted the horse in say the indiana derby or the super derby he would win next out.

What he really needs is a class drop.

Yep. Like when Romans dropped First Dude in class in the Pennsylvania Derby last year.

[Robert Fischer]

I saw Shack in the paddock before the Travers and he looked much the best but after the race coming back to be unsaddled he looked very very tired. Tired as in it's been a long hard season for him and the Travers was the last straw. I am no expert in body language but he really was saying that's it for now.

nice observations. I don't think either would be considered wayy offf by masters of body language.
Shack is a cool dude. physically he can be a good looking specimen, and yes he does get fatigued. (and yes, his losses do have some physical similarities although naysayers will bring up how he ALWAYS shows some fatigue/sweatout/workup)

[Robert Fischer]

Shack has a very different stride from a normal good horse, I think his confirmation has finally got the best of him.
I disagree with the specifics and the extreme sound of this statement, however I think this is somewhat close, SIGNIFICANT, and congratulate you for noticing his conformation. :ThmbUp: I do think it is significant, although I think it's a little more subtle than what most players will either notice or be willing to factor.
(TANGENT--i never know if conformation or confirmation is the correct spelling use/ and have seen both used bunches of time, i ended up choosing go with "conFORM" because it seems like "shape" rather than "FIRMness" to me, not that symantics matters at the windows...)
Shackleford is influenced in some ways by his conformation.
Shack happens to be at his strongest on his RIGHT LEAD. I like horses with good right leads. Some will dispute the importance, and we see some horse overseas who either don't switch to their RIGHTy either in the backstretch or even stretch. We also see some overseas who naturally switch back n forth or simply as needed as natural.
As an aside which i will try to get back to(this is wild freestyle horseplayer writing here! :rolleyes: hold on tight yea right... ) one of the more interesting and ambiguous situations is with the leads on the backstretch - specifically out of the gate. (i should really look up my old notes here) For the most part, horses are allowed to start naturally and continue to th first turn at which they will naturally run the turn with a left lead. Often what you see out of the gate is that horses will simply start on their left lead. The left lead would be considered the "wrong" lead for the backstretch or stretch in some situations, but from a start out of the gate the preffered start is usually just a good clean natural break. Like I said before, even some really good horses and especially foreign types(some of the best finishers) are not taught to change righty anyway.
Now like I said earlier and the reason for introducing this point into the discussion is that Shackleford is stronger on his Right Lead than his left. The reason is that Shackleford's left lead is a weaker, more so than his right lead being exceptionally strong. And the unfortunate part is that his left lead is weaker because his right-front leg happens to take quite a bit of pressure during the stride. This is evident in the head-on angle views. As you can imagine, especially if you are familiar with leads, the right-front leg having to take a lot of pressure isn't particularly great for the Right-Lead stride either(the opposite of the Left Lead, and an aptly named stride, where the Right-Front-Leg reaches out ahead to lead the stride). However Shackleford's Right Lead is stronger than his Left-Lead stride in spite of and perhaps superficially counter intuitive to the nature of the issue. Maybe the reason is related to the straight position of his right front in the right lead stride releiving pressure, as opposed to taking the turns where although the left-Leads, the right takes a good deal of pressure. A horse like Shackleford is hardly unique in that you could say he "prefers" ones lead or another. There are a range of them and there are different classifications of them. Some can't peform on one of the leads (almost always in that case the right lead), Some simply excel at a certain lead, and some like Shackleford are not as strong with a certain lead. Fortunately for Shackleford he is a pace-setting horse with good tactical speed. This minimizes the affects that he has to endure when extra pressure is on his right front. This is because he typically has speed to get inside along the rail allowing him to cover less ground, or 'save' ground on the turn(where like all american horses, he is in that left-lead stride), and another benefit is that he typically is 'asked' less around the first turn in particular(typical to have lead, be saving ground and begin to rate a bit or at least settle into a good stride early), and even around the 2nd turn, due to his running style and speed, there is a greater chance that he may be finnessed around the 2nd turn, given that he has the lead and is saving ground, hopefully going to have horse left in the Stretch.

[Robert Fischer]

There are lots and lots of factors that contribute to a horse race, so you really can't take the following - which will be a generalization and act like it's the be-all // end-all SINGLE ANSWER, which we horseplayers notoriously like to do/claim... Looking at Shackleford's lifetime races, i can sloppily slap my weak theory onto his trips in a race-by race basis. His poor runs where he ran worse than he should've were his 9th in his debut, his 5th in the FOY, and his 8th in the Travers. Some horses need a particular style (need2leadz etc..) Shack is one of those that isn't so much rank, as much as a certain type of trip protects his conformation.
His debut race was @ Keeneland. They have the neat Trakus which says that by the 1/2 he had covered the most ground. Chart says prompted 4 wide. Lots of pressure in a 7f race to overcome.
After controlling and crushing a 9f allowance, Shack is asked to rate 3 or 4 wide off the pace in the FOY - a disaster which leads NICELY:jump: to his 70-1 return to ground saving pace tactics in the FLORIDA DERBY.
Finally his last poor performance The Travers featured him using horse early from the 10post to "secure" a hard 3path around lead round the 1st turn.
The great thing about Shackleford is that he seems to come back strong from these tough performances, and then when he gets a trip which alleviates pressure off of his right front, he responds with the TOUGH GRITTY PERFORMANCES that we all enjoy.
He was really tough in the Florida Derby. He had things go his way, his trip was great for his personal strengths and weaknesses and the track favored Speed that race (while his opponent won with a deep close), but his effort was very admirable. The Haskell appears to be EXTREMELY similar to the FLORIDA DERBY. However it is my opinion that Coil BENEFITED from being the lone deep closer (like DIALED IN in the FLoridaDerby, COIL ran a separate race type from all others), In other words- while Dialed In was best in the FLA Derby, Shackleford was best in the Haskell. (and I'm a Coil fan.) Even with the trip protecting Shack a great deal in the Haskell, Shacks effort was the Tough efforts we should remember his season by. The Derby was a very "face value" effort. Good effort Shack.
I said somewhere that Shack reminds me of a slightly better First Dude. The Belmont was pretty much a face-value race. It was too far, and Shack also had to run in that Slop which looked tough on his right front to me. Then again AK didn't run and it was extremely speed favoring. A race like that has so much extreme factors that you have to say nice race for getting 5th, pretty much whereever you fall. - However the Belmont may have been very hard on Shack's career. He keeps bouncing back, and his Haskell like I said was in some ways his best career race(people don't seem to realize that he ran his A race, that the race favored Coil, and that Coil ran a grade2 race[im talking about a real grade2, which is quite good and generally better than most of the big races.] )
His preakness was much like the Haskell and Derby but in the Preakness the situation accentuated Shackleford's strengths and protected his weaknesses. THere is nothing wrong with calling The Preakness his best or liking it the best of his races. Animal Kingdom really ran a big big preakness. (as you can see I am not stressing finish position when evaluating these races...)
SHACK'S NEXT ATTACK??
PREP HIM ON THE TURF FOR THE CLASSIC.
prefferably 9f+ without a short-run to the first turn. Prefferably no cheap rabbits(yes they would likely be flexible regarding a name-horse like Shack and teh race secretary /rabbits).
WTF TURF?? = easy, he gets to easily establish his preffered position. He doesn't have to worry that he will draw outside and end up getting a Terrible prep where everything goes wrong and he runs wide and maybe even doesn't come out of the race well. Instead he gets a smooth start, saves all the ground preserving that right front, and gets to gamely work on his stamina. He also very likely wins and looks good doing it. Tempting to get Ramon Dominguez to handle the wire-to-wire finesse ride, but it shouldn't be so much of a reliance on saving several lengths as it should be on the main factors mentioned. Romans does fine on turf, So will this particular horse(Shack) and he would have an opportunity to enter the Classic fit and as sound as he's been in quite a while. He may prove to be a better turf horse, or at least a versatile type as a 4yo. He also has the inherint potential and gameness to have a short peak under a higher% horseman on a move-up situation like FIRST DUDE this year in a very similar situation.

[turninforhome10]

PREP HIM ON THE TURF FOR THE CLASSIC.
prefferably 9f+ without a short-run to the first turn. Prefferably no cheap rabbits(yes they would likely be flexible regarding a name-horse like Shack and teh race secretary /rabbits).


Balto Star took that route and stayed sound and made a good bunch of cash on the way.

[cj]

Shack has a very different stride from a normal good horse, I think his confirmation has finally got the best of him.

The Little Guy pointed out today, the Travers was a very honestly run race with solid fractions, I'm not sure you could say that about the Triple crown races.

The fractions were pretty much identical figure wise to the Preakness and the Derby. He didn't steal anything in the Preakness.

[Robert Fischer]

PREP HIM ON THE TURF FOR THE CLASSIC.
prefferably 9f+ without a short-run to the first turn. Prefferably no cheap rabbits(yes they would likely be flexible regarding a name-horse like Shack and teh race secretary /rabbits).


Balto Star took that route and stayed sound and made a good bunch of cash on the way.

good call
Balto Star 37-1 took a really good United Nations wire-to-wire at monmouth 11Furlongs turf. vs The Tin Man (both were 5yo @ the time) race was ranked high enough the Tin Man was only 3RD BETTING CHOICE as the top 2 finishers from THE MANHATTAN (DENON, REQUETTE) were taking good action!
thats a race i will check for just to see those 2 game it out.

Shackleford just looks like a tough 8 or 9 furlong turf horse. Going 9+ would be best because he could ensure himself a stress free trip on the lead with as little pressure on the "right-front" as possible. Go ahead and game it out on the front and get a great prep. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

The fractions were pretty much identical figure wise to the Preakness and the Derby. He didn't steal anything in the Preakness.

yea, all things considered Shack's Derby was very strong.
Both races taken in context were impressive.

[papillon]

the logical fallicy you are making is that just beucase a race has a grade 1 beside the name does not make it a grade 1 race....

the factor, uncle (no) mo, stay thirsty in new york, animal kingdom, those are grade 1 calibur horses and all of them would maul shakleford.

unfortunately, that does not fall under any definition available for a logical fallacy.

the grade of the race is definitive, and like many definitive things, it can often seem arbitrary in practice, because the grades are assigned well before the race is run and even well before the entries are entered. however, if the grading was always assigned in hindsight it would be unworkable chaos. by definition a grade 1 horse is any horse who has at least won a grade 1 race (just as an adult is anyone who has reached 21 years of age--even if in reality, a 21 year old often behaves more like a kid).

also, with young 3 year olds, who are changing physically over the year, it is not fair to say that an ersatz grade 1 horse in february clearly wasn't a grade 1 because he has not progressed and maintained that level by september, or has been passed by other horses as they matured--especially when some of the horses in question are not currently racing because they are injured. but congrats! you have just exercised a genuine logical fallacy called hindsight bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias). (unless you can show that before the florida derby you were saying that the race was weak and the horses outclassed).

tbh, its hard to know how to read your posts, because on the one hand you took issue with my mistake in concluding that you think stay thirsty is a good horse, when you only think he is good in new york, yet here you say he is truly a grade 1 horse who would "maul" shack. which is it? a horse that is only good in one state doesn't seem that good to me tbh.

ps: just because you pass on a horse in a certain race when placing bet in favor of another horse, doesn't really have any bearing on how you might objectively assess the horse in civil conversation where money is not on the line.

i didn't bet on shack in the travers either--saratoga often plays too much as a specialist's track for me and betting on stay thirsty seemed pointless at his odds and i really couldn't bring myself to bet on anything associated with mike repole (even though i know it is not the horses fault his owner is an ass). plus my take on shack's works there was more in line with mike welsch's--i didn't think he looked like he was getting over it well at all. i hoped he would do well, because i would have liked to have seen him win the top 3 year old eclipse award, but it was just a hope. now, i just want him to get some rest.

[Wiley]

On the Travers broadcast, Donna Brothers asked Romans about Shack and he said the more you train this horse the stronger he gets, this was before the race, with that in mind will Romans treat him like First Dude and run in the Penn Derby, then the Classic? He's used a similar pattern with Shack and FD.

IMHO, A break to me looks good for him then maybe, as Robert suggests a mile to mile and a sixteenth turf allowance or minor stakes at Keeneland, to prep for the BC. Not sure if he goes in the Classic or the Dirt Mile? He might be better around two turns from the looks of it. Has some turf breeding second and third generation.

[Robert Fischer]

On the Travers broadcast, Donna Brothers asked Romans about Shack and he said the more you train this horse the stronger he gets, this was before the race, with that in mind will Romans treat him like First Dude and run in the Penn Derby, then the Classic? He's used a similar pattern with Shack and FD.

IMHO, A break to me looks good for him then maybe, as Robert suggests a mile to mile and a sixteenth turf allowance or minor stakes at Keeneland, to prep for the BC. Not sure if he goes in the Classic or the Dirt Mile? He might be better around two turns from the looks of it. Has some turf breeding second and third generation.

good question. He is very similar to FIRST DUDE.

a couple points:

9Furlongs(or even 10f) on the Turf would be much better than 8 or 8.5.
The reason is that he seems to NEED to have the lead from the gate on the RAIL. He needs this early position because of his rough way of going up front. (His right-front leg, especially noticeable when he is on the turns, on his left-lead, does his right-front absorb a lot of pressure due to his conformation.) The wider he travels on turns, the less apt he is to finish well at all in his races. 9F of the right race-type should ensure that Shackleford has all but a guarantee to secure the rail-pace position right out of the gate.

The tendency with these guys is to shorten them up, and if it were for 1 last race, maybe I'd agree. As a prep it's actually easier on his legs at a bit more ground.

Keeneland could be a great place to prep Turf or Poly. With the poly - even at 9f some care has to be made in agreeing on a prep race, because there are days when the 9F polytrack trip is surprisingly contested race from the gate. Worst case scenario would be a wide trip that exhausts him, forces him to quit and takes forever to bounce back from.

[Robert Fischer]

I find myself holding several different standards.

RACE GRADE
I will look at a race and "grade it". I generally require there to be a race in order for the higher grades to be earned. For Example: Curlin crushes a group of mediocre allowance contender level horses in track record time! - I don't call that a grade1 or even2 = i just call it what it was. Now if I am looking at one of the Allowance level contenders - maybe he dueled with Curlin early and wide, only to finish LAST. I upgrade him a little if he goes back to facing allowance horses.

as in the example above, I generally have an intuitive idea about the type of class this horse can compete in.
I don't care much about what the race is called.

Ultimately at some point I try to be "fair" and when a horse can contend in grade 2 races (even if they are ungraded-type races to me!) I give-in and say that this grade 2 horse or whatever by the standards of the season.

I tend to do better predictive handicapping when I use my own opinions.


unfortunately, that does not fall under any definition available for a logical fallacy.

the grade of the race is definitive, and like many definitive things, it can often seem arbitrary in practice, because the grades are assigned well before the race is run and even well before the entries are entered. however, if the grading was always assigned in hindsight it would be unworkable chaos. by definition a grade 1 horse is any horse who has at least won a grade 1 race (just as an adult is anyone who has reached 21 years of age--even if in reality, a 21 year old often behaves more like a kid).

also, with young 3 year olds, who are changing physically over the year, it is not fair to say that an ersatz grade 1 horse in february clearly wasn't a grade 1 because he has not progressed and maintained that level by september, or has been passed by other horses as they matured--especially when some of the horses in question are not currently racing because they are injured. but congrats! you have just exercised a genuine logical fallacy called hindsight bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias). (unless you can show that before the florida derby you were saying that the race was weak and the horses outclassed).

tbh, its hard to know how to read your posts, because on the one hand you took issue with my mistake in concluding that you think stay thirsty is a good horse, when you only think he is good in new york, yet here you say he is truly a grade 1 horse who would "maul" shack. which is it? a horse that is only good in one state doesn't seem that good to me tbh.

ps: just because you pass on a horse in a certain race when placing bet in favor of another horse, doesn't really have any bearing on how you might objectively assess the horse in civil conversation where money is not on the line.

i didn't bet on shack in the travers either--saratoga often plays too much as a specialist's track for me and betting on stay thirsty seemed pointless at his odds and i really couldn't bring myself to bet on anything associated with mike repole (even though i know it is not the horses fault his owner is an ass). plus my take on shack's works there was more in line with mike welsch's--i didn't think he looked like he was getting over it well at all. i hoped he would do well, because i would have liked to have seen him win the top 3 year old eclipse award, but it was just a hope. now, i just want him to get some rest.