Travers Stakes

[Pell Mell]

With the way all the 3 yr old stakes unfolded this year, do you think there could be a major upset in this one too?

I think if Thirsty doesn't have his game suit on we could see another bomb in here. :ThmbUp:

[GaryG]

And the bomber will be....(I hope):

:6: Raison d'Etat

Developing rapidly for Mott... In that last one he had no chance to catch the Pletcher horse that was setting a slow pace on a speed-biased course.

[thespaah]

With the way all the 3 yr old stakes unfolded this year, do you think there could be a major upset in this one too?

I think if Thirsty doesn't have his game suit on we could see another bomb in here. :ThmbUp:
The possibility of a big shocker at the Spa is always high.

[tribecaagent]

My key/win bet is (#3) Moonshine Mullin

I'll be using (#1) Bowan's Causeway, (#2) Rattlesnake Bridge & (#4) Ruler on Ice


All the best

[PhantomOnTour]

As long as we're shopping for prices so far in this thread i will throw my two cents in on Rattlesnake Bridge.
Career has developed nicely and his last puts him in the ballpark figurewise. It was also his first try around two turns and he did very well. Gets the top jock in Johnny V to ride.
He hasn't raced beyond 1m16 though and must go 10f tomorrow...tough task.
ML is only 8-1 and i need higher than that before betting on top.

[Some_One]

Using NP (trying not to redboard for once, lol) looks like Ruler on Ice, Rattlesnake Bridge and Shackleford are the plays as Stay Thirsty doesn't qualify as a contender. In the King's Bishop, I can't eliminate a single horse using NP, lol, think that's a first, so obviously it's bombs away (looks like all the price horses are closers and I think that'll be very good).

[big frank]

And the bomber will be....(I hope):

:6: Raison d'Etat

Developing rapidly for Mott... In that last one he had no chance to catch the Pletcher horse that was setting a slow pace on a speed-biased course. im with you Gary ,, i feel Mott has had this horse at 80% , and he has been pointing for the travers all the while... I think he will be rolling late and has a big shot

[NYPlayer]

My top four:

Stay Thirsty
Malibu Glow
Shakleford
Ruler on Ice

This figures to be a pretty comptitive renewal.

[BlueShoe]

Who goes with Shackleford early? Sure, there are stalker/pressers in the race, but do not see anyone that is likely to mix it up early with Shack. Not convinced yet that he cannot get a classic distance against good colts.

[plainolebill]

I predict Coil will run early with Shackleford. Having a terrible start and winning from way back didn't convince me he's changed his running style.

I'm still looking at the race, Dutrow's horse fits according to the (BRIS) figs but the numbers from his last race are questionable to me with the top 3 horses finishing close with big figs in a minor stakes at Del.

I think Mott's horse has very little chance of winning here unless he really steps it up.

I'll probably bet Ruler on Ice with a side dish of J.W. Blue.

[Robert Fischer]

I predict Coil will run early with Shackleford. Having a terrible start and winning from way back didn't convince me he's changed his running style.

:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

GLAD someone brought this up.

This is the fascinating part of the race.

Coil seemed to show a great improvement with the change in running style during the Travers. Shackleford ran a very strong Haskell in what was a good edition. Probably the best 3yo "classic" race since the Belmont(which was hampered by an unlucky AK).

There is a legitimate question as to whether Coil would have been beaten by Shackleford had he been on the pace in the Haskell.

Then that difficult question is compounded when we have to figure out whether Coil will be run as a speed horse again like he used to, or whether he will be rated off the pace.

Baffert is no dummy. The horse is rateable and we will see a stalking trip. I do not expect Coil to be taken as far back as in the Haskell, rather I expect him to be within 5 lengths at all times.

Then if that line of thinking is followed, it is hard to know if Coil will be as strong or better with that trip.

Back to the Haskell, ... Again Coil is difficult to evaluate because he was the only one who ran the running style of a deep closer in that race. He ran a separate race from everyone else. In such situations it is not sufficient to compare his trip with Ruler on Ice and JJ's Lucky Train, as he ran a separate race from them even if they were supposedly off-the-pace.

Coil and his running style can be a fascinating sub-topic here. My perspective happens to be that these are minor issues, but it could be someone's core concern if they felt that way...

[Rapid Grey]

More than one way to skin the cat so I'm looking to just get a longshot into the bottom of the gimmicks. Bowman's Causeway seems like a different animal since moving into Chad Brown's barn. I'll try and get him in the bottom of a tri or super...don't think he can win. I'll throw out Rattlesnake Bridge, Malibu Glow and JW Blue and spread from there using Stay Thirsy and Shackleford as the two most likely winners. Can't use Moonshine Mullin higher than 3rd. Use Ruler on Ice, Raison d'Etat and Coil the same amount and cover with them slightly in the top spot.

Hope that makes sense.

[cosmo96]

I like #6 Raison d'Etat. Anything can happen in a race like this. The horse has had good workouts, high pedigree, Mott, and good value.

[ten2oneormore]

The fact that everybody and their mother seem to be on Raison D'Etat doesn't bode well for his 10-1 ML.Think TLG is putting him on top also on talking horses.I'm going with Shack/Raison D'Etat EX BX.Unless odds make them unplayable then I pass.

[Spiderman]

JW Blue for three reasons: 1) no one else picks him 2) he is a very strong closer and should, at the least, be used underneath on exotic tickets 3) if you consider Ruler On Ice, JW ran a better race when they faced each other at PIM

[porchy44]

"Ruler on Ice " win and place

[Pell Mell]

My longshot is a horse I had as one of my pedigree picks early in the year...bred to go the classic distance but looks to be a one run horse...it seems however, a few of the big races have been won by 1 run horses.

I'm going with J W Blue to be somewhere around the money...could add some value to whatever happens..;)

[DJofSD]

A preliminary look at the figures tells me Rattlesnake Bridge and Coil with best chance to win and will use Stay Thirsty with those two in exactas.

Hope I don't get snake bit!

[Dahoss2002]

4 horse box 4-8-9-10. super 9-10/4-7-8-9-10/4-7-8-9-10/all

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I like :7: :9: :2: :p

[lamboguy]

4 horse box 4-8-9-10. super 9-10/4-7-8-9-10/4-7-8-9-10/all
good luck today, missed you

[thespaah]

As long as we're shopping for prices so far in this thread i will throw my two cents in on Rattlesnake Bridge.
Career has developed nicely and his last puts him in the ballpark figurewise. It was also his first try around two turns and he did very well. Gets the top jock in Johnny V to ride.
He hasn't raced beyond 1m16 though and must go 10f tomorrow...tough task.
ML is only 8-1 and i need higher than that before betting on top.
I don't think RB will end up under 10-1. On the other hand if money sees what we see, then RB may take money.
Still haven't decided what I am going to do, but Rattlesnake Bridge will be in my bets for sure.

[elysiantraveller]

I'll take the price.

:6: :10: :7: :9:

[Tom]

Elimination rule - any horse who has won a Gr1 race this year. And of course, the fav. So far, it has been a good way to go with this crop, who I still have zero respect for.

[Robert Goren]

Lately I haven't even been able to pick a show horse. That being said I see no no reason not to like Coil. SAR is suppose to be graveyard of favorite, but every place has been the graveyard of favorites this year for 3 year olds. May the favorite will win in an "upset".

[Tom]

May the favorite will win in an "upset".

Good one, Bobby.....

[Tom]

Well, nice race, the 10th - one stumbles, one bolts. Then a duck file for the rest.

[ArlJim78]

I like Ruler On Ice. Make it
:4: :9: :3: :2:

[gm10]

J W Blue for the W/P/S.

Always like to do some supers as well. 4 7 8 9 boxed.

[thespaah]

Who goes with Shackleford early? Sure, there are stalker/pressers in the race, but do not see anyone that is likely to mix it up early with Shack. Not convinced yet that he cannot get a classic distance against good colts.
That was my concern in the Haskell. For that reason I sat it out.
The Spa appears to be speed favoring today. Save the big close Caleb's Posse in the King's Bishop, most other speed has been dominant.
The only way I see Shackleford taking this is if he lays down a 48+ half and gets 6f in 1:13 with no pressure.

[PaceAdvantage]

Here are my fair odds | value odds for the Travers:

:10: 3/2 | 2/1 Shackleford
:9: 4/1 | 5/1 Stay Thirsty
:6: 5/1 | 7/1 Raison D'etat
:3: 5/1 | 7/1 Moonshine Mullin

Doesn't appear Shackleford has much competition up front early. Stay Thirsty is going to be very tough late I think though, but I'll glady take 7/2 on Shackleford instead of 3/1 on Stay Thirsty, which is what the board currently reads early.

Looks like I'll be betting three horses in this race, as the :6: and :3: are offering way too juicy odds to pass up, especially the :3: . I have that last race as a big step up his first time on dirt. If he improves a bit off that race, he can win, and 20-1 makes it worth it.

For the record, TLG also like the :6:, which is good enough for me.

[hugh]

Travers Trifecta Box ....
Stay Thirsty
Coil
Ruler on Ice
:4: :7: :9:

[Tom]

:6::3::9:

[PaceAdvantage]

good luck today, missed youThat's the wrong Dahoss...

[Robert Fischer]

Coil is a special horse. If he can run as good as he looks = look out!

[Burls]

:6::7::8: EXB,TBX

[Cratos]

Travers Trifecta Box ....
Stay Thirsty
Coil
Ruler on Ice
:4: :7: :9:

Coil should win this race for fun

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't get the fascination with Coil at all...

To me, Coil=Slow

We shall see...

[PhantomOnTour]

TRI:
:7: :10:
:2: :4: :6: :7: :9: :10:
:2: :4:

TRI:
:9:
:7: :10:
:2: :4:

[thespaah]

my bets...
2 with 6789
9 with 2 678

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, I was right about Coil, but that didn't help me make any money... :lol:

Shackleford was a major disappointment despite getting a good trip....

Stay Thirsty certainly wasn't a shock, and now only has to hold off Uncle Mo for year end honors... ;)

[PhantomOnTour]

my bets...
2 with 6789
9 with 2 678
Score!! :ThmbUp:

[toussaud]

I don't get the fascination with Coil at all...

To me, Coil=Slow

We shall see...


this race just goes to show how week the haskell really was.

[Burls]

:6::7::8: EXB,TBX
My money horse gets 3rd but the two chalk are dead last. :confused:

[Tom]

Coil was slow early and slow late.

The Raison horse - what a horse! Mott, you need directions to Finger Lakes? :D

[Some_One]

I don't think the Haskell was slow, it's just a different track surface, as such I would be careful with ST once he leaves Saratoga, maybe he really likes the water up there.

[cj]

this race just goes to show how week the haskell really was.

Sometimes the figure guys get one right.

[Burls]

my bets...
2 with 6789
9 with 2 678There's a hit!
Congrats

[PaceAdvantage]

my bets...
2 with 6789
9 with 2 678Nice call...didn't see Rattlesnake Bridge improving that much to have an impact... :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

Well, I was right about Coil, but that didn't help me make any money... :lol:

Shackleford was a major disappointment despite getting a good trip....

Stay Thirsty certainly wasn't a shock, and now only has to hold off Uncle Mo for year end honors... ;)

Clearly, ST leads the parade.
Sadly, it is not much of a parade. But at least it might wake up some trainers and jockeys - forget this slow pace crap and push your horse. Horses do not run good races when they aren't pushed.

[Stillriledup]

I'm sure Baffert must have known this horse was going to be no good and tweeted that before the race. With that information, you could have made a nice score throwing him out of all exotics.

[PhantomOnTour]

As long as we're shopping for prices so far in this thread i will throw my two cents in on Rattlesnake Bridge.
Career has developed nicely and his last puts him in the ballpark figurewise. It was also his first try around two turns and he did very well. Gets the top jock in Johnny V to ride.
He hasn't raced beyond 1m16 though and must go 10f tomorrow...tough task.
ML is only 8-1 and i need higher than that before betting on top.
Well...i had a wee exacta to show for liking this horse.
For some dumb reason i thought Stay Thirsty was ready for a step backwards today so he only got a little play on top. :mad:

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

could have said this before the race, but if you're taking a short price on a jock thats 0-26 at the meet, you're a philanthropist.

[thespaah]

Well, I was right about Coil, but that didn't help me make any money... :lol:

Shackleford was a major disappointment despite getting a good trip....

Stay Thirsty certainly wasn't a shock, and now only has to hold off Uncle Mo for year end honors... ;)
When I saw 1:11 and change to 3/4's and a contested lead I knew Shack was done.
For end of year honors..Sucks. Cuz Stay Thirsty will not meet Uncle Mo. SO it becomes subjective.

[Tom]

Sometimes the figure guys get one right.

Except, of course the BRIS figure guys.:D

Just anecdotal, but when they come off poly and do not explode on dirt, which Coil did not, I don't like them to improve at all.

[Mineshaft]

might be the worst 3 yr old crop of all times


Is it just me or did it look like every horse including the winner was tired and drunk coming down the lane?

[PaceAdvantage]

could have said this before the race, but if you're taking a short price on a jock thats 0-26 at the meet, you're a philanthropist.7/2 was a short price? I beg to differ...

[thespaah]

Nice call...didn't see Rattlesnake Bridge improving that much to have an impact... :ThmbUp:
I posted earlier in this thread that RB looked to be pointed to this race.
The Travers always seems to attract at least one or two under the radar horses that put forth their best effort of the season in the Travers.
I hung my hat on Rattlesnake Bridge.
I hope lots of other PA people had this nice exacta...

[thespaah]

There's a hit!
Congrats
Thx!

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

7/2 was a short price? I beg to differ...

In that field?? The rider is a moron. He didnt see the wood for a half mile. Theres a reason these guys are no name, the names outride them every time.

lol.

the good news is, he had no horse anyway

[PaceAdvantage]

When I saw 1:11 and change to 3/4's and a contested lead I knew Shack was done.
For end of year honors..Sucks. Cuz Stay Thirsty will not meet Uncle Mo. SO it becomes subjective.Good point. I keep forgetting Repole owns both Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo.

[PaceAdvantage]

In that field?? The rider is a moron. He didnt see the wood for a half mile. Theres a reason these guys are no name, the names outride them every time.

lol.

the good news is, he had no horse anywayThat's ok. My Shackleford investments are still clearly in the black.

And I agree with the criticism for going wide early...there was no reason why he couldn't get to the front earlier, drop in and throttle back a bit...

[Simple Syrup]

might be the worst 3 yr old crop of all times


Is it just me or did it look like every horse including the winner was tired and drunk coming down the lane?

I'm far from an expert, but it might be the worst crop in the 20 years I've been following the sport. It's not fair to say each horse looked tired and drunk. However, each looked tired or drunk.

[classhandicapper]

Well, I was right about Coil, but that didn't help me make any money... :lol:

Shackleford was a major disappointment despite getting a good trip....

Stay Thirsty certainly wasn't a shock, and now only has to hold off Uncle Mo for year end honors... ;)

It looks to me like Shackleford is a tired horse and pretty much done for the year. He's had a very tough campaign with a lot of really tough stretch drives. They don't all make it to the end of the season still sharp. If he was mine, I'd stop on him right now and at least give him a freshening.

I keyed against Coil also and didn't make any money either. He had a good setup last time closing on the outside off a fast pace on a bad inside day and wasn't even committed to the race until late. Plus he hadn't been 10F.

The horse that screwed me up was Ruler on Ice. I needed him for 2nd. Someone is going to have to explain to me why Valdivia was using him early to stay with Stay Thirsty and Shackleford when he's not a speed horse and he could have easily sat inside a few lengths off the pace and made a run late. It was insanity. Stay Thirsty was keeping Shackleford honest. This is why some guys get great mounts and win 20% and others guys can't get themselves arrested. When they are handing you a great trip on a silver platter and you still get a bad/suspect one....

[ArlJim78]

The horse that screwed me up was Ruler on Ice. I needed him for 2nd. Someone is going to have to explain to me why Valdivia was using him early to stay with Stay Thirsty and Shackleford when he's not a speed horse and he could have easily tucked in and sat a few lengths off the pace and made a run late. It was insanity. Stay Thirsty was keeping Shackleford honest. This is why some guys get great mounts and win 20% and others guys can't get themselves arrested. When they are handing you a great trip on a silver platter and you still get a bad/suspect one....
I don't know how much it cost him, but that ride sure wasn't a thing of beauty. You'd think he would have wanted to get him relaxed early on.

[classhandicapper]

could have said this before the race, but if you're taking a short price on a jock thats 0-26 at the meet, you're a philanthropist.

LOL :lol:

The more I learn about trips and related matters the more I realize how important the jockey is and how bad many of them are, but I still can't find any way to exploit it.

Everyone knows who the good jockeys are and who gets the live mounts so they all get bet.

[classhandicapper]

I don't know how much it cost him, but that ride sure wasn't a thing of beauty. You'd think he would have wanted to get him relaxed early on.

Agreed.

Maybe he wouldn't have been 1st or 2nd anyway, but if you told me before the race Ruler on Ice was going to be used from the inside to stay with Shackleford and Stay Thirsty even though the pace was lively early I would have told you only an idiot would do that. I would have tossed him from my exactas instead of making him a key with the winner instead. He was already inside. All he had to do was stay inside, get him to relax 4-5 lengths off the pace and try to save some ground before making a stretch run. Then you see what you have underneath you. You don't use a horse that is not a speed horse, keep using him to stay with the pace, back out, look like you are totally done, try to rally a little again etc... That's why he came up empty.

[keithw84]

might be the worst 3 yr old crop of all times


Is it just me or did it look like every horse including the winner was tired and drunk coming down the lane?

I agree this crop has not been that impressive, but I wonder if we are being too hard on them because of the parity. Has there been a crop with a lot of parity that was also really good? In other words, lots of really good horses taking turns beating each other?

[keithw84]

When was the last time that a different horse won each of the G1 dirt routes for 3YOs?

[toussaud]

in all honestly stay thirsty was begging a horse to pass him and no one could. i knew i lost (i had ST) with an 8th to go.

the crop isn't that good honestly, but it's what is left o the crop. it had promise earlier this year.

[elysiantraveller]

When I saw 1:11 and change to 3/4's and a contested lead I knew Shack was done.
For end of year honors..Sucks. Cuz Stay Thirsty will not meet Uncle Mo. SO it becomes subjective.

What?!?

What year end honors is Uncle Mo being considered for?... The horse, through no fault of his own, has accomplished absolutely nothing this year.

[PaceAdvantage]

What?!?

What year end honors is Uncle Mo being considered for?... The horse, through no fault of his own, has accomplished absolutely nothing this year.He was talking about my theory before the King's Bishop that if Uncle Mo returned in good order, because of this very lackluster group of 3yos, there was a good chance Mo could contend for year end honors if he continued on into the fall...

But with Stay Thirsty winning the Travers and both horses being owned by Repole, that idea seems dead despite Uncle Mo returning to the races in impressive fashion.

[elysiantraveller]

He was talking about my theory before the King's Bishop that if Uncle Mo returned in good order, because of this very lackluster group of 3yos, there was a good chance Mo could contend for year end honors if he continued on into the fall...

But he lost today so its all moot.

FTFY :)

[PaceAdvantage]

FTFY :)Zenyatta has been gone from the racing scene for a while.

I thought for sure we'd all get back to normal and recognize that you don't have to win every race...at least, that's how rational folks used to act pre-Zenyatta.

[ArlJim78]

he doesn't have to win every race, but he does have to win something other than the timely writer before we can talk about any year end awards.

[PaceAdvantage]

he doesn't have to win every race, but he does have to win something other than the timely writer before we can talk about any year end awards.Evidently, I'm not communicating very effectively. So I'll just drop it...

[elysiantraveller]

:confused:

I'm being irrational because I think a horse should have more than a ungraded stake on the trophy shelf come August to be mentioned for year end honors?

[PaceAdvantage]

:confused:

I'm being irrational because I think a horse should have more than a ungraded stake on the trophy shelf come August to be mentioned for year end honors?I never mentioned he deserved year end honors.

Again, I seem to be communicating poorly.

What I wrote was that if he returned in good order in the King's Bishop (which he did), given how this crop has been beating up each other, Mo could easily end up with year end honors IF he progresses throughout the rest of the year.

[PaceAdvantage]

:confused:

I'm being irrational because I think a horse should have more than a ungraded stake on the trophy shelf come August to be mentioned for year end honors?What exactly was made moot by Mo losing today?

The fact that he's owned by the same owner as Stay Thirsty complicates things, but it certainly isn't out of the question (especially if he were owned by someone else) that Mo could be campaigned aggressively and win one or two major races in the fall and then win the BC Classic.

You're telling me that if he does that, he doesn't deserve year end honors?

I never said he deserves it NOW... :lol:

[elysiantraveller]

What exactly was made moot by Mo losing today?

The fact that he's owned by the same owner as Stay Thirsty complicates things, but it certainly isn't out of the question (especially if he were owned by someone else) that Mo could be campaigned aggressively and win one or two major races in the fall and then win the BC Classic.

You're telling me that if he does that, he doesn't deserve year end honors?

I never said he deserves it NOW... :lol:

I get your point now.

But back to the original poster... Uncle Mo hasn't won anything but a ungraded stake so far this year. How long are we going to wait for this "hidden" form to emerge where he goes on a tear and rattles off wins to a championship season.

He did lose again today in a devastating defeat. You and the OP think that if he had different connections he could campaign more aggressively and win some big races maybe on the way to a championship season. I would just rather see him win a race first.

[raybo]

Here's a red board from AllData_J1, using default paceline settings:

[DigitalDownsJoe]

Hit a 10 dollar exacta :) returned almost 400 for a 60 dollar box :ThmbUp:

[depalma113]

When was the last time that a different horse won each of the G1 dirt routes for 3YOs?


2000

Fu Peg - Derby
Red Bullet - Preakness
Commendable - Belmont
Dixie Union - Haskell
Unshaded - Travers
Tiznow - Super Derby

Pre-derby

Fu Peg - Wood
The Deputy - Santa Anita
Hal's Hope - Florida Derby
High Yield - Blue Grass

Not quite every Grade One route for three year-olds, put pretty close.

[classhandicapper]

this race just goes to show how week the haskell really was.

I'm not so sure this race proved much about the Haskell.

Coil and Shackleford were so terrible it's hard to make a case they ran back to their Haskell performances and Ruler On Ice (who lost by a few lengths in the Haskell) lost by a few lengths here with a suspect ride.

No doubt it was a below average Haskell, but this as been a below average crop.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm not so sure this race proved much about the Haskell.

Coil and Shackleford were so terrible it's hard to make a case they ran back to their Haskell performances and Ruler On Ice (who lost by a few lengths in the Haskell) lost by a few lengths here with a suspect ride.

No doubt it was a below average Haskell, but this as been a below average crop.


looked like Shackleford ran his A race in the Haskell and ran very well. Also in the Haskell, Coil got a great setup and ran what was "visually" one of the more impressive 3yo "classics". Today neither had a very good opportunity.

[KingChas]

Stay Thirsty HFC (HorseForCourse) 2011?

Is Stay Thirsty the new Lawyer Ron at Saratoga this year?

Interested to see how he runs on another track,
after these two big victories.

No disrespect for ST,.....just curious.... ;) .

[classhandicapper]

Stay Thirsty HFC (HorseForCourse) 2011?

Is Stay Thirsty the new Lawyer Ron at Saratoga this year?

Interested to see how he runs on another track,
after these two big victories.

No disrespect for ST,.....just curious.... ;) .

IMO this is the Stay Thirsty story.

He was decent/good stakes horse at 2, but not near the top of the division.

His 3YO debut in NY was fine and demonstrated he made the turn to 3 OK.

He shipped to Florida and didn't run a lick, but several other leading horses also tried that same ship and didn't run a lick down there. Then they came back north and returned to top form.

He didn't run well in the Derby also, but a lot of people felt the inside part of the track wasn't good that day and he spent a lot of time inside.

He ran very well in the Belmont

Now he won the Jim Dandy and Travers.

I think what we have here is a horse that was a decent/pretty good 2YO that has been developing all along, but his form was masked by circumstances for a couple of races.

He's at the head of the division now because the 2YO leaders (Uncle Mo and Boys at Tosconova) had their careers interrupted, a couple of other good prospects went down before the Triple Crown or during it, then Animal Kingdom went down etc... So he's a good/decent 3YO that's at the top by default.

[papillon]

With Stay Thirsty taking his place as leader of his class and taking aim on the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Repole said he has no next race in mind for Uncle Mo. "You don't know what this race is going to take out of him," he said. "I wouldn't be surprised if this was his last race, I'll be honest with you."
repole says this may be the end (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/people/repole-on-uncle-mo-i-wouldn-t-be-surprised-if-this-was-his-last-race/)

guess i'm just different--what i saw was a horse who was put in a very tough position after some mysterious liver disease and after a winter of rumors of leg surgeries, who was tiring badly in the stretch after the pace collapsed and who lugged in badly. i didn't see a super horse.

while the race was being run, i thought--that poor horse, it's unconscionable to put him in race with this kind of pace this soon after a brush with death; and as soon as the race ended, i said--tomorrow they'll announce that he's retired.

i'm sorry, all i saw yesterday was mike repole's ego. he doesn't care about mo, he cares about bragging rights and he was all in tizzy because he might not be king of the hill without mo, but now mo is expendable because stay thirsty let's him keep king of the hill status-- i despise that guy tbh.

but since pletcher announced that hilda's passion was injured in the ballerina and out for the rest of the year today, i figure he'll wait a few days to officially announce the end of mo's career. don't want too many injuries linked to your barn in one day. people might start to notice a pattern.

as for the travers, i'm pretty worried about coil and shack's health tbh. shack doesn't back up. he fades but he doesn't back up--even in the belmont, he didn't back up. plus if you look, he was running pretty awkwardly in the stretch yesterday as he crawled home. and coil's race was just weird for a quality horse if he was sound. if shack comes out of the travers ok, i hope romans will let him rest a bit and bring him back as a miler. he's done enough.

ps: actually, come to think of it, there were a couple of weird performances yesterday--sassy image spooking, bolting, and blowing the turn. coil taking an afternoon stroll; shack backing up...

[elysiantraveller]

but since pletcher announced that hilda's passion was injured in the ballerina and out for the rest of the year today, i figure he'll wait a few days to officially announce the end of mo's career. don't want too many injuries linked to your barn in one day. people might start to notice a pattern.

That pattern has been there for quite some time.

[Relwob Owner]

Evidently, I'm not communicating very effectively. So I'll just drop it...


I think you communicated effectively from the get go......I took your initial statement about Uncle Mo and HOY being more about there being no huge front runner right now and less about Uncle Mo and his chances and I agreed when you wrote it. I think he ran really well yesterday and like you said, there would be enough time and races to get him on the HOY path if he could and his conncetcions pointed him there. After yesterday's comments from his connections, that seems doubtful.

[PhantomOnTour]

Hilda's Passion injured and done for the year.

With 3 solid races in a row who thinks Stay Thirsty is about to go bad? He must now leave Saratoga (his favorite track) and hold his form for a barn that can't keep a horse right for any extended time.
He may run well at Bel in JCGC but my money says he's nowhere in the BC Classic at low odds.

[Tom]

Maybe Pletcher will couple him in the BC with Life at Ten.

[MadWorld]

What exactly was made moot by Mo losing today?

The fact that he's owned by the same owner as Stay Thirsty complicates things, but it certainly isn't out of the question (especially if he were owned by someone else) that Mo could be campaigned aggressively and win one or two major races in the fall and then win the BC Classic.

You're telling me that if he does that, he doesn't deserve year end honors?

I never said he deserves it NOW... :lol:

You could say that about any Three-Year-Old right now. Any horse that wins the JCGC and Breeders' Cup Classic would be Champion three year old at this point.

[DJofSD]

Maybe Pletcher will couple him in the BC with Life at Ten.
You meant Uncle Mo, right? :rolleyes:

[camourous]

yea if a 3 year old wins the JC Gold Cup and Breeders Cup Classic they would be 3 year old and horse of the year, but i can't see any of these 3 year olds hitting the board in the classic, they all look like they are running in quicksand down the lane in every race

[Tom]

You meant Uncle Mo, right? :rolleyes:

No, Stay Thirsty.

[BlueShoe]

Excuse the bad joke, but to say that Coil never got unwound would be an understatement. My selection, Shackleford, did not do much better, fading to 8th. Earlier in the day took gas on Tar Heel Mom and Flashpoint. A horrible Travers day, and no better at other tracks. Should have stayed home and watched the kids play baseball.

[Tom]

Excuse the bad joke, but to say that Coil never got unwound would be an understatement.

He ran more like a slinky than a horse uncoiled!
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[Rapid Grey]

May be too simplistic in thinking but seems like Pletcher is either really hot or really cold on racing's biggest days. Saturday he was a head and a nose from sweeping the all stakes Pick 4.

[KingChas]

Stay Thirsty HFC (HorseForCourse) 2011?

Is Stay Thirsty the new Lawyer Ron at Saratoga this year?

Interested to see how he runs on another track,
after these two big victories.

No disrespect for ST,.....just curious.... ;) .


Is the jury in or out?

[Tom]

I think so.
ST is done.

[KingChas]

Interested to see with Uncle Mo back if they run ST in the BC.

And if they do double digit odds for Stay Thirsty?

[point given]

I think so.
ST is done.

"He didn't handle the track too well," Castellano said. "I know when he ran in the Belmont, it was a sloppy track and had a lot of puddles, a lot of water. He liked that. Today, unfortunately, it was tiring, sticky-muddy, and he wasn't very comfortable with that."

[Tom]

His two big efforts and then this trip will make him the Quality Road of this year's Classic.

[cj]

His two big efforts and then this trip will make him the Quality Road of this year's Classic.

Migliore had an interesting comment. He kind of got tag teamed by the entry, and being the grinder type horse he is, have to slow down and move around doomed him because he doesn't have that big burst. I'm not ready to write him off just yet off that trip.

[classhandicapper]

Migliore had an interesting comment. He kind of got tag teamed by the entry, and being the grinder type horse he is, have to slow down and move around doomed him because he doesn't have that big burst. I'm not ready to write him off just yet off that trip.

Yea, watching it live I just recall saying to myself that once Flat Out beat him to the move the race was over.

It's hard to brag about taking 7-5 on Flat Out, but I actually thought that was an overlay. I needed it too because it was in a hole for the day. That one dug me half way out. :D

[toussaud]

if you, like me, did not think very much of this 3YO crop triple crown crop, you would have made a killing yesterday


at this point i would take wilburn against any 3YO going 2 turns in the country and feel good about my chances. the 3YO classic crop (schakleford, stay thirsty, ruler on ice, coil, Animal Kingdom) are not very fast, and when you put them up against a pretty sup par handicap division, they consistently run up the track. They are very good at beating up on 3YO sprinters going 2 turns. NOt so good at taking on real handicap horses, even ones that are not top tier per say

you see the brick wall coil hit in the stretch yesterday. like somoene just pulled an emergency break in the stretch.

[classhandicapper]

if you, like me, did not think very much of this 3YO crop triple crown crop, you would have made a killing yesterday


at this point i would take wilburn against any 3YO going 2 turns in the country and feel good about my chances. the 3YO classic crop (schakleford, stay thirsty, ruler on ice, coil, Animal Kingdom) are not very fast, and when you put them up against a pretty sup par handicap division, they consistently run up the track. They are very good at beating up on 3YO sprinters going 2 turns. NOt so good at taking on real handicap horses, even ones that are not top tier per say

you see the brick wall coil hit in the stretch yesterday. like somoene just pulled an emergency break in the stretch.

I have to agree. The sprint/mile division is strong, but the classic division has been weak. I wasn't ready to say that a few months ago because you can never tell who is going to step forward and improve during the summer. But most of the leaders of the division are either hurt, went backwards, or didn't move forward. Stay Thirsty moved forward, but he was behind the others to start so he hasn't really stepped up enough to become a threat to serious Grade 1 older horses yet. At least he didn't embarrass himself yesterday.

[PhantomOnTour]

I have to agree. The sprint/mile division is strong, but the classic division has been weak. I wasn't ready to say that a few months ago because you can never tell who is going to step forward and improve during the summer. But most of the leaders of the division are either hurt, went backwards, or didn't move forward. Stay Thirsty moved forward, but he was behind the others to start so he hasn't really stepped up enough to become a threat to serious Grade 1 older horses yet. At least he didn't embarrass himself yesterday.
Arcangues is still the only Euro to win the Classic on real dirt right?
It may happen again this year as the USA contingent consists of Flat Out, Havre De Grace and Game On Dude...?
Tizway has been absent and can't be fully race fit for the Classic without a prep.
I guess you gotta throw in Wilburn and To Honor And Serve...who else?

I think most top tier Euros could handle this group on just about any surface.

[toussaud]

Arcangues is still the only Euro to win the Classic on real dirt right?
It may happen again this year as the USA contingent consists of Flat Out, Havre De Grace and Game On Dude...?
Tizway has been absent and can't be fully race fit for the Classic without a prep.
I guess you gotta throw in Wilburn and To Honor And Serve...who else?

I think most top tier Euros could handle this group on just about any surface.
game on dude is not a bad horse at all. I don't know why people hate on him so much. Also, IMHO he is one of the only handicap horses, that actually wants to go 10 furlongs. he will get the trip. Also, he is one of the more push button horses out there. He can beat you on the lead, he can stalk, he can sit back and make a move, doesn't matter.


toss the del mar race, in which he didn't take to the track, he hasn't done anything wrong. and he didn't run BAD that race he was just spinning his wheels in the stretch.

If i had to wager right now it would be him or HDG.

[classhandicapper]

Arcangues is still the only Euro to win the Classic on real dirt right?


A couple of others ran well and came close, but it's a tough choice for them.

Are you better off running in the Turf where you'll probably get a piece of the purse/win or gambling on the dirt in the Classic and potentially coming away with nothing if the horse doesn't like it. It was an easier gamble on the synthetic at SA because a lot of turf horses loved it.

[PhantomOnTour]

game on dude is not a bad horse at all. I don't know why people hate on him so much. Also, IMHO he is one of the only handicap horses, that actually wants to go 10 furlongs. he will get the trip. Also, he is one of the more push button horses out there. He can beat you on the lead, he can stalk, he can sit back and make a move, doesn't matter.

If i had to wager right now it would be him or HDG.
True, he is game and can handle 10f. I guess it's his grinding style that's unimpressive...he has no real turn of foot that buries the competition. He just kinda keeps going.
What was the Beyer for the Goodwood?

[toussaud]

102 beyer.

I have to admit i'm surprised he got a beyer 18 points higher than creative cause who only got an 84. I don't know if i buy that.