Betting in advance

[JJMartin]

Any success with betting your selections at the start of the racing day as opposed to waiting for post time to make a decision?

[windoor]

I do this everyday.

Unless your play/pass decisions are odds based (many here are) I just let the odds fall as they may.

For on line wagers, I have been using Twinspires conditional setting for a minimum odd for my testing banks, but for everyday play this is not possible unless I do not have a runner and I get lazy.

Regards,

Windoor.

[Track Collector]

I do this everyday too.

As for the ending odds, my database tells me (historically) the average odds I will end up receiving on the play in question.

[Qstick333]

I do this as well. I am changing my play to more P4 and P6 play, but such is life. Effective so far in a very small sample size.

[classhandicapper]

It feels like every time I do this it comes back to haunt me. Either a horse that I liked gets bet way below the minimum price I would have accepted, it rains and changes the track condition, or there's a track bias that would have changed my view.

If you have to do it you have to do it, but I don't think it's a good idea.

[Valuist]

Any success with betting your selections at the start of the racing day as opposed to waiting for post time to make a decision?

Unless physicality is a big part of your repetoire, I think its a better way to play. You end up betting only where your opinions are strong. No action wagers, no savers, no unnecessary spreading early in the P4 to guarantee you are alive.

Most of my best scores have come having bet hours in advance. And invariably they were stakes races betting against an overhyped horse who should've been 2-1 and was bet down below even money. We may have a candidate at Saratoga like that tomorrow.

[Robert Fischer]

i wager in advance when i know how the pool will behave.

[ManU918]

I also do this everyday. I do my homework the night/morning before the races begin, drive to the track put everything in and I'm home before the first race starts.

[thaskalos]

Advance wagering is the only way through which the non retired bettor can participate in this game on a regular basis...since the races at all the major tracks are run during rather inconvenient (for the player) hours.

But it's far from an ideal way to play this game...IMO.

True...it offers certain advantages which the player would "kill for" - like freeing up his day to do other things...and making it easier for him to remain disciplined during the day's events - but these advantages come with a heavy price.

The game has changed in several ways which make it imperative that the bettor stay in closer contact with the game than what advance wagering allows...in my opinion at least.

It used to be that I could pretty reliably guess in advance what the closing odds would be on the contenders of the races which I deemed playable...but I find that I more surprised at the closing odds now than I have ever been in the past. I would not like to place serious wagers today without knowing the prices I was getting...or the odds on some of the other horses in certain races.

Nor could I place serious wagers without having knowledge of this rash of late scratches which plagues our game at the current time...because some of these scratches not only change the odds -- they sometimes change the very complexion of the race.

In a game as difficult to beat as this...the serious player needs to grab every edge he can find...

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I personally dont like to do it at all, unless I am just betting a p3 or p4. I always am looking for value on the board, and its hard to bet value when you dont know what the odds are going to be. I have seen races where the place paid more then the win..If im gonna dump alot on a low odd horse, I want the best value possible. I also use the power tool to look for good exacta payouts. I dont wanna spend 20 bucks on an exacta box if half the payouts arent profitable. Just my opinion..

[Valuist]

I personally dont like to do it at all, unless I am just betting a p3 or p4. I always am looking for value on the board, and its hard to bet value when you dont know what the odds are going to be. I have seen races where the place paid more then the win..If im gonna dump alot on a low odd horse, I want the best value possible. I also use the power tool to look for good exacta payouts. I dont wanna spend 20 bucks on an exacta box if half the payouts arent profitable. Just my opinion..

In theory that is true. The problem is when 40% of the betting handle comes in during the last minute (and is processed after the race is off), you really don't exactly know what the odds are going to be. Maybe at some tracks you have a decent idea, but we've all bet the 8-1 shot 4 minutes to post that ends up winning and paying $9.00.

[Delta Cone]

Advance wagering is the only way through which the non retired bettor can participate in this game on a regular basis...since the races at all the major tracks are run during rather inconvenient (for the player) hours.

Great post.

I gravitated toward the California circuit years ago largely because of the 2 hour time difference (I'm in suburban Chicago). With first post usually at 3pm CT, I was easily able to get out of work or school and play 5 or 6 races.

I don't have time to handicap and bet in advance... and I don't want to. The few times I have done it were unsatisfying.

While I know that some action is probably better than nothing :), the thrill of watching a race as it happens sure beats checking tickets or websites for results (which is about as thrilling as clicking on Yahoo Finance to check a stock price).

[JohnGalt1]

I also put my bets in early. I never get shut out. I never have to deal with long--or short--lines. I don't make mistakes through haste.

And if my 4-1 ML horse is bet down to say 8-5, at three minutes to post I'll get my win/exacta money back. Collecting $30-50 is almost like a win--especially if the turd loses.

[lamboguy]

when i bet short money $20 wps- $75-wps on smaller tracks i play them all at once, sometimes 12 hours before the race. i can't control those pools to begin with. often times i get better odds than i expected most of the time i get about what i expected. my game is to bet as many races as i can and get the rebate. if i get a good price, thats the bonus. yesterday i bet 84 different races from all the different tracks. i have no way of even watching every race that i bet, many times i have 3 races going off at once.

once in awhile i bet big money and i try to watch the horses on the track and at the gate and make sure my price is in the neighborhood of what i am willing to take.

[Capper Al]

Thaskalos,

You can still manage a lengthy response to this question. Amazing!

I watch the tote-board for value. Value not only determines if I'll bet but also which exotic wagers that I'll play.

[castaway01]

It's probably best to bet late, but it might be better for your sanity to bet early because then when the odds drop you at least will not blame yourself. The test I would use is if you can bet "early" for 6 months and still show a profit. If you are, don't worry about it and keep on doing so. Maybe avoid the morning-line favorites, figuring they will drop in odds, but that's extremely simplistic and it really depends on the kind of horses you are betting.

[Overlay]

With handicappers more than ever needing every edge they can get, and despite the uncertainties that can result from last-minute odds changes, I think that betting as late as possible is still the best means of finding value, and exploiting the one major advantage that pari-mutuel wagering offers in comparison to games where odds are fixed by unchanging mathematical laws, and where players are faced with a negative expectation on every bet.

[oddsmaven]

Betting at the start of the day does not work for me...but I can commit to who I'm going with early in the betting (15-20 mtp).

If I bet at the end, it's generally to determine a proper spread on a few horses underneath my choice with exacta plays.

[pondman]

Any success with betting your selections at the start of the racing day as opposed to waiting for post time to make a decision?

If I'm at the track, I'll wait till about the last 3 minutes-- making sure I get the odds I need. If betting on atw, I'll bet conditionally in the early morning.

[ranchwest]

I'm betting all non-maiden races at 7 tracks through TwinSpires draft wagers early in the day, long before the races begin.

[dav4463]

I personally dont like to do it at all, unless I am just betting a p3 or p4. I always am looking for value on the board, and its hard to bet value when you dont know what the odds are going to be. I have seen races where the place paid more then the win..If im gonna dump alot on a low odd horse, I want the best value possible. I also use the power tool to look for good exacta payouts. I dont wanna spend 20 bucks on an exacta box if half the payouts arent profitable. Just my opinion..


What is the "power tool" ?

[judd]

not advisable if your a $200 to win bettor