Who do you like in the Alabama Stakes?

[HoofedInTheChest]

I have been looking forward to this race all week, i have to go with the homebred filly Inglorious. The lone filly to win at a mile and a quarter this year albeit on Poly, she ran 2nd and 3rd at Fair Grounds on the dirt but was hampered with a sore foot in those races. She will need a good pace which i think she will get and there is no doubt this girl is a great closer. She has been well rested since the Queens Plate and has trained well leading up to the Alabama. Luis Contreras is on fire this year and Josie Carroll is having a great meet at Woodbine with a 22% win percentage. My only concern will be with the weather, i think she will have no problems with the dirt but if it rains or has to deal with a slick track that may be a problem.

:6: Inglorious

[GaryG]

I second that emothion...she handled the dirt well at FG despite racing under some unfavorable conditions. Doubt she will be 6-1, but I will take her at 3-1 or better.

[toussaud]

i do not think she's as good as these, and her win in the Queen's plate just shows the different caliber of competition more than anything.

hard for me to bet against it's tricky.

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't think It's Tricky will last going 10f vs these.
Maybe she and Plum Pretty slow things down enough, but I've a feeling they will mix it up, and who gets the first shot at them before the deep closers?

Royal Delta...sits the rail trip behind the above two, should like the 10f distance, value is there by virtue of a loss to the top choices in the CCA Oaks.

[lamboguy]

royal delta will be sitting 3rd in that race and should get first run on paper. i got her as a close second best in the race, so all she would need is just a little help with the pace in front of her. if one of the other 2 horses don't go, that would be a different story.

[Robert Fischer]

i like the two mentioned here as much or more than the ml favorites. I just don't have any great bets in this race.

[jefftune]

A real good race. Inglorious certainly could win - romped at the distance winning the Queen's Plate, and a nice bullet work since.

[classhandicapper]

I think you have to key against Plum Pretty if she gets bet and hope It's Tricky remains sharp enough to keep her honest on the lead. PP doesn't look like a 10F horse to me UNLESS she gets a very easy lead or the track winds up carrying speed.

To me, It's Tricky deserves to be the favorite (though probably not bettable to win at the probable odds). Turbulent Descent was obviously a top filly going into the Acorn and she crushed her. Then TD came back to win the Test impressively and IT was impressive in her last. Her only bad race was on a ship from NY to Florida, but several top NY horses made that same ship, ran dismally, and immediately returned to top form.

St Johns River is tougher for "me" to analyze. She barely beat a relatively weak field in her last that subsequently hasn't been very productive, but she did close quite fast late to get up so she may be better than it looks. Her Kentucky Oaks was clearly very good, but she did get a good pace to close into and save a lot of ground. I'm still not sure about that track at CD and whether the inside was OK or a little off that day. That makes all the difference in the world to me for evaluating St Johns River in that race. I think you sort of have to use her because she could run big, but not be disappointed if she doesn't run well.

IMO Royal Delta was very overrated in her last race off a fast perfect trip win at Pimlico and some missed training, but she may have been a short horse too. So the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That could easily be good enough if Plum Pretty and It's Tricky don't want 10F.

I'm not a huge fan of Inglorious. If she won it definitely wouldn't shock me, but I'd rather have a more proven dirt horse given that there are clearly already some very good dirt fillies in this race. If she runs big and wins or finishes 2nd, she'll beat me.

If it's possible to key against Plum Pretty and create some value, I might box IT, SJR, and RD, But other than that I don't see this as a bettable race because IMO they are going to have the right favorite. There is also the possibility of booking a bet against Plum Pretty on the exchanges if the price is right. On a speed biased or sloppy track, all bets are off.

[classhandicapper]

I should add, if Plum Pretty is short enough, I might also play some multi race bets against her. That way if she finds the 10F too far, I can still cash against her even if she lasts for second because no one else fires.

[Spiderman]

Plum Pretty trained at SAR for this race. Last out she shipped from CA and trained there. Will be fit and running better at today's distance.

[classhandicapper]

Plum Pretty trained at SAR for this race. Last out she shipped from CA and trained there. Will be fit and running better at today's distance.

I read that line of reasoning somewhere else too. It could be true, but to me it looks like she has struggled a little through the stretch late in all her races against solid opposition. If none of these horse can pick her up at 10F, then IMO that will most likely mean she got away easy (It's Tricky was not sharp), the track favored inside speed (sure didn't look like it in the first race) or none of the other horses wanted 10F on dirt either and they all staggered home.

IMO, if you believe she's going to run better today, the race is totally unbettable. That seems like a reasonable position. I'd rather take a shot against her if she's anywhere near the ML.

[Robert Fischer]

after going back over it
i like 4Tricky, 6Inglorious, 2pinch pie

- 4- outgunned the speed last time

-6- not only reached acceptable velocity in the stretch last time, more importantly was able to patiently track the leaders approaching the far tarn in QP. In other words unless the speeds send prematurely, i don't really think she should have to lag far behind approaching today.

2 - 1.5lengths best in loss 3back over slop will help my prices, tactical speed puts her in the game, dream trip in last hints that she is sound and strong

[ManU918]

St. Johns River... She should have enough pace to run at today.

[riskman]

I favor Plum Pretty to win the race if she can get the 10F. If she tires, I look to St.Johns River or Royal Delta to close into a good pace. I would bet either one at 3-1 or better.

This is a nice group of fillies and look forward to this race every year but from a betting opportunity it is a better race to watch for me.

[jognlope]

They're all over Inglorious on YNN channel 9, doing feature on her owner Jamie so and so, who says bringing the horse up 4 days ago was plenty time. She seems confident. Can't wait to watch and wish I'd bet.

[lamboguy]

on paper it would not surprise me who wins this race. it is one of the most competetive races i have seen this whole year before they run the race. i am going with the guy that picked INGLORIUS. i am copying him because he must know that horse is training good.

i am looking forward to the 7th at arapahoe arabian race. TM SUPERBIRD got beat by a colt her last time out. she had a big lead and folded up like an accordian. she won't against the girls.

[Tom]

Inglorious.
Proven at the 10 furlongs already and been pointing for this race.

[classhandicapper]

I really wish there was another dirt race between now and the 6th race to see more evidence about how the track is playing.

[PhantomOnTour]

Looks like a :1: & :6: to me.
Hoping one of these gals puts up a big number to move into a position to challenge HDG and Blind Luck...Inglorious may be the one.

[Simple Syrup]

Was looking at Inglorious, but I'm doubting the odds will be what the Morning Line would indicate.

[trackrat59]

I think they have to beat It's Tricky.

[dansan]

where's the rest of the ponies very small field

[Producer]

St. Johns River:ThmbUp:

[Tee]

Royal Delta


edit
She's definitely a little warm compared to the others.

[lamboguy]

there is no living human stealing anything with this 6 horse in the alabama, they betting this race like its over!

[Robert Fischer]

right now the 2 is the overlay

[ManU918]

there is no living human stealing anything with this 6 horse in the alabama, they betting this race like its over!

9/5 on Inglorious is an absolute joke.

[ManU918]

9/5 on Inglorious is an absolute joke.

LMAO at Inglorious.... Horse never handled the dirt in her life but yet she goes off at 2-1.

[Producer]

Seemed like only the winner and Pinch Pie handled the track. The rest all looked uncomfortable throughout.

[Robert Fischer]

well that was fun

[lamboguy]

LMAO at Inglorious.... Horse never handled the dirt in her life but yet she goes off at 2-1.
wow!

[dansan]

right name for the 6 horse :lol:

[Tom]

Nice! :ThmbUp:

Royal Delta


edit
She's definitely a little warm compared to the others.

[HoofedInTheChest]

That was a hard one to swallow, she looked like she was laboring from the get go. I guess it wasn't a very good idea to give her a 60 day lay-off. I have never seen her run that poorly......... what a train wreck.

[classhandicapper]

A few thoughts.

I HATED Castro's ride on It's Tricky. He needlessly lost extra ground on the first turn and IMHO moved way too soon to challenge Plum Pretty. There was no reason to do that given that he was able to get her at 9F and she was WAY more likely to back up on her own at 10F. I don't know if she wins with a better ride, but IMO it definitely would have been closer.

All that said, it was good for me because the exacta was bigger with Royal Delta on top and I had them equal. Plus I also had a small win bet on Royal Delta at the price even though I thought It's Tricky was the more likely winner.

For anyone that thinks Exchange betting isn't great, check this out.

I looked on the Exchanges trying to book bets on Plum Pretty, but I couldn't because the prices were too high. However, the Head to Head bet available was It's Tricky vs. Plum Pretty. Plum Pretty was the favorite between the two even though on the board IT was a solid favorite between the two. I got 6-5 on It's Tricky to beat Plum Pretty going 10F. So even if I blew everything else and Inglorious won (who I didn't have for a penny), I still had a chance to make money on the race if my primary opinion was correct (that Plum Pretty didn't want 10F and It's Tricky would beat her again).

Great race, but I don't think this division is settled yet. There aren't
to going to be any more 10F races.

[Canarsie]

I would like to give props to Josie Carroll for giving pre and post race interviews. She was classy in defeat I wish her well in the future.

More athletes and horse people should be as gracious as her. :ThmbUp:

[redshift1]

I saved the race of the day free PP's (DRF) for the Alabama, now they show expired when accessed. Odd since I saved to both desktop and dropbox.



Anyone have the same problem?

[Tee]

Nice! :ThmbUp:


Thanks Tom!!

Blind squirrel found a nut.

[Cardus]

I'll redboard a bit, here: I bet on the horse with the pink saddlecloth.

[precocity]

That was a hard one to swallow, she looked like she was laboring from the get go. I guess it wasn't a very good idea to give her a 60 day lay-off. I have never seen her run that poorly......... what a train wreck.
watched it on NBC and never saw her in the race :D I said were is the dam favorite at....oh they did show her trainer at the end.. :D complete TRAIN WRECK!!!

[classhandicapper]

That was a hard one to swallow, she looked like she was laboring from the get go. I guess it wasn't a very good idea to give her a 60 day lay-off. I have never seen her run that poorly......... what a train wreck.

I wouldn't pay much attention to that race from am "ability" point of view. I thought there were some legitimate questions about whether she was as good on dirt as synthetic, but she was so hopelessly bad I'm not even sure dirt was whole story.

[Some_One]

wow!

She deserved to be in the race, but not at 2-1, simply crazy, however Josie took her shot, there isn't much in big poly races in Canada, maybe the Maple Leaf later this year so she had to see if she took to dirt, I guess plan B is maybe try and get her to the EP Taylor and see if she takes to turf.

[lamboguy]

She deserved to be in the race, but not at 2-1, simply crazy, however Josie took her shot, there isn't much in big poly races in Canada, maybe the Maple Leaf later this year so she had to see if she took to dirt, I guess plan B is maybe try and get her to the EP Taylor and see if she takes to turf.i thought before the race that anyone could win it. before the race it was the best race of the year, and after the race it still was, to take 2-1 on anyone in the alabama was tough unless you knew something more than anyone else. INGLORIOUS must have trained lights out and someone from canada were probably the ones that bet. the only problem that i have learned through the years, its one thing to train great, its another to prove it in the afternoon! but at 2-1 those guys that bet weren't stealing anything, and they wound up leaving a hefty deposit.

[classhandicapper]

i thought before the race that anyone could win it. before the race it was the best race of the year, and after the race it still was, to take 2-1 on anyone in the alabama was tough unless you knew something more than anyone else. INGLORIOUS must have trained lights out and someone from canada were probably the ones that bet. the only problem that i have learned through the years, its one thing to train great, its another to prove it in the afternoon! but at 2-1 those guys that bet weren't stealing anything, and they wound up leaving a hefty deposit.

I agree.

The main reason I was considering getting involved was to bet against Plum Pretty who I figured would be second choice. I considered Inglorious as a horse that could beat me, but I was skeptical of her dirt ability and thought she was unlikely to get bet heavily anyway. Plum Pretty didn't get bet as heavily as I expected, but the money Inglorious took made the race much more bettable for "me" anyway given my other opinions.

This is an example of what makes public handicapping so tough. It's hard enough to find opinions that might be good value when you see the late odds, but to also predict how they will be bet and make profitable selections is almost an impossible task.