Odds Flux

[bigmack]

So I'm playin' MTR (which I rarely do) - I slide in a W on Ladiano in the 7th @ 8-1 with 'no' minutes to post. They start. Tote shows Ladiano @ 8/5. :confused: By the end of the race (she showed) she was 2-1.

Wow!

[Relwob Owner]

So I'm playin' MTR (which I rarely do) - I slide in a W on Ladiano in the 7th @ 8-1 with 'no' minutes to post. They start. Tote shows Ladiano @ 8/5. :confused: By the end of the race (she showed) she was 2-1.

Wow!


BM,

Wow. Did you win? Even for the Mountain, that is a big slide.....did the favorite when your horse was 8 to 1 go up significantly at the same time?

Some people dont like betting there because of the unusual stuff that happens but I have noticed some of the stuff-especially overbetting Parker-creates nice opportunities.

Good luck to ya

[chipandrun]

So I'm playin' MTR (which I rarely do) - I slide in a W on Ladiano in the 7th @ 8-1 with 'no' minutes to post. They start. Tote shows Ladiano @ 8/5. :confused: By the end of the race (she showed) she was 2-1.

Wow!


Watch the replay and listen to the announcer. The favorite went from 1/9 to 3/1 at the post. Typical MNR crap.

[bigmack]

BM,

Wow. Did you win? Even for the Mountain, that is a big slide.....did the favorite when your horse was 8 to 1 go up significantly at the same time?

Some people dont like betting there because of the unusual stuff that happens but I have noticed some of the stuff-especially overbetting Parker-creates nice opportunities.

Good luck to ya
Silly nag placed. I don't believe I'll spend much time dopin' MTR\ henceforth.

[sammy the sage]

Watch the replay and listen to the announcer. The favorite went from 1/9 to 3/1 at the post. Typical MNR crap.

This :bang:

[Bruiser1]

Saw this....and this was a huge tote move, biggest I've seen recently.

I couldn't tell if there was a big wager cancellation that led to the move.

[njcurveball]

They have a bettor there who puts $5,000 on a horse and then cancels the bet in smaller amounts.

It happens on an average of once per night. The exacta pools might be where they make their money. The 2nd and 3rd choices usually pay $60 or more when they finish 1-2 after the money is canceled.

I am surprised the track does nothing about it. The trend has become very obvious and I am sure if they "follow the money" it will lead to one place.

Perhaps the "pump and dump" leads to inflated prices with an offshore book who does not catch it since the money is not in the win pool there.

Definitely plays into the "sheep mentality" of the crowd as they get over confident watching the odds board and overplay these horses in the exotics.

Jim

[Relwob Owner]

Silly nag placed. I don't believe I'll spend much time dopin' MTR\ henceforth.


Darn, that is annoying. I would still say that it can be worth the time at the Mountain. Once you get used to some of the stuff, you can find some nice plays...good luck to ya

[mountainman]

So I'm playin' MTR (which I rarely do) - I slide in a W on Ladiano in the 7th @ 8-1 with 'no' minutes to post. They start. Tote shows Ladiano @ 8/5. :confused: By the end of the race (she showed) she was 2-1.

Wow!

Ultra-short faves go up here at postime, whereas moderate faves almost invariably go down. The former sometimes occurs because the wiseguys all flock to the same alternative and consequently kill their own value. I think the best way to roll is to stand, when feasible, against both the mad bomber's 5k AND the obvious alternative. And bet late,,VERY late.

[castaway01]

Ultra-short faves go up here at postime, whereas moderate faves almost invariably go down. The former sometimes occurs because the wiseguys all flock to the same alternative and consequently kill their own value. I think the best way to roll is to stand, when feasible, against both the mad bomber's 5k AND the obvious alternative. And bet late,,VERY late.

They commonly go from 1-9 to 3-1? Can't say I've ever seen that anywhere else at post time. (Someone else reported those odds in the thread---if it's wrong, sorry.)

[Relwob Owner]

Ultra-short faves go up here at postime, whereas moderate faves almost invariably go down. The former sometimes occurs because the wiseguys all flock to the same alternative and consequently kill their own value. I think the best way to roll is to stand, when feasible, against both the mad bomber's 5k AND the obvious alternative. And bet late,,VERY late.


Definitely

[mountainman]

They commonly go from 1-9 to 3-1? Can't say I've ever seen that anywhere else at post time. (Someone else reported those odds in the thread---if it's wrong, sorry.)

No, they reported the incident correctly. And of COURSE that's an extreme case. And unusual also because the odds rose higher than those of TWO rivals, which makes it probable that somebody cancelled a ticket.

[bigmack]

No, they reported the incident correctly. And of COURSE that's an extreme case. And unusual also because the odds rose higher than those of TWO rivals, which makes it probable that somebody cancelled a ticket.
Was it lettuce on Thrown Away that was cancelled?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/mtr.png

[mountainman]

Was it lettuce on Thrown Away that was cancelled?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/mtr.png

No, it was Oddity who was 1/9 at like 1 minute to post. Ran third, parker up.

[Relwob Owner]

Question-is pool manipulation illegal? No doubt can be considered unethical but I was curious to see if that is where it ends.

[bigmack]

Question-is pool manipulation illegal? No doubt can be considered unethical but I was curious to see if that is where it ends.
I don't know how they can slap the wrist of a cancelled wager unless it is done with regularity from the same nudnick.

[Some_One]

The weird thing about this one was the plunge didn't happen till 5 mins to post, usually it happens in the opening flash from what I've seen.

[Relwob Owner]

I don't know how they can slap the wrist of a cancelled wager unless it is done with regularity from the same nudnick.


That is the what I would think as well. The person who does it seems to always have the "I changed my mind excuse" but I would guess with some effort, they could pin down the repeat offender.

[cj]

It is bush league, and for Mnr to allow this type of manipulation only enhances its already bush league image.

[onegoodday]

does this happen everyday?i dont play mounaineer but i see alot of posts on here either saying not to play this track or complaints of the odds flux.

[njcurveball]

Ultra-short faves go up here at postime, whereas moderate faves almost invariably go down. The former sometimes occurs because the wiseguys all flock to the same alternative and consequently kill their own value. I think the best way to roll is to stand, when feasible, against both the mad bomber's 5k AND the obvious alternative. And bet late,,VERY late.

It really sounds like you are not aware of the cancellation of wagers on certain races. If you can, please talk to the mutuels manager and have run a report of all horses who had bets canceled in the amount of $500 or more. You may find some revealing data.

I have seen them take the money out a little at a time. Since it is a favorite and money is coming in, I cannot tell you how much was canceled when the horse goes from having $5,500 to $4,500 to win in one flash. They may have canceled $1,000, $2,000, etc.

It seriously makes your track look bad Mark. Definitely something to investigate with the mutuel people and find out where and how much these cancellations are for.


Jim

[Prairie Bettor]

Honestly, people who are complaining obviously don't play the mountain.

Those of us that do play the mountain and are aware of the "pool manipulation", use it to our advantage.

The key to winning in this game is learning each track- trainers, jockeys, and the tote board.

Learn the mountain and you will be rewarded.

Another note, the "mad bomber" does play other tracks also.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Exactly how is a bet cancelled. Are these guys betting at an adw and just get the bet cancelled by asking, can they do it themselves, what?

[Prairie Bettor]

Exactly how is a bet cancelled. Are these guys betting at an adw and just get the bet cancelled by asking, can they do it themselves, what?

I don't personally know the "mad bomber" so it would be a guess on how he does it.

That being said, you should be able to cancel a bet the same way you place a bet- in person, on the web, by phone.

I would never bet anywhere that didn't allow bets to be cancelled. There are several ligit reasons for the need to cancel.

[mountainman]

It really sounds like you are not aware of the cancellation of wagers on certain races. If you can, please talk to the mutuels manager and have run a report of all horses who had bets canceled in the amount of $500 or more. You may find some revealing data.

I have seen them take the money out a little at a time. Since it is a favorite and money is coming in, I cannot tell you how much was canceled when the horse goes from having $5,500 to $4,500 to win in one flash. They may have canceled $1,000, $2,000, etc.

It seriously makes your track look bad Mark. Definitely something to investigate with the mutuel people and find out where and how much these cancellations are for.


Jim

Sure, It's obvious that some big bets have been cancelled, but the routine and methodical removal of win-money isn't something I can attest to. Our monitor in the studio doesn't display the pools. I'll see what I can find out about last night's incident. Whatever the case, even though several theories have been proposed as to the mad bomber's purpose, it's highly debatable that consistent profits can be leveraged from these shenanigans. My supposition, as stated several times on the show, is that the objective is to drive money to other entrants-and thus inflate the price on the horse he has wagered on. This theory would not preclude him cancelling a portion of his win-bet.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Q: How do I cancel a Wager?
A:

Online wager cancellations are not permitted in the State of New York.


So I'll assume other states are working under different rules.

[Relwob Owner]

It is bush league, and for Mnr to allow this type of manipulation only enhances its already bush league image.


CJ,

I asked earlier but didnt get a response. Is it illegal to manipulate the pools? If not, I dont know the grounds MNR would have to stop it and dont see how they could be blamed. I imagine the issue is complicated by the ADW's and their rules as well.

[Prairie Bettor]

Q: How do I cancel a Wager?
A:

Online wager cancellations are not permitted in the State of New York.


So I'll assume other states are working under different rules.

Wow, talk about screwing the player!

So, in New York, if you bet an entry and the good half gets scratched at the gate, you must keep the now dead money bet?

What about last night at Yonkers, 30 minute rain delay, your money is just stuck in limbo?

What if you have the track's leading jockey, he gets thrown off and replaced by some no-name? Tough luck?

As stated earlier, I would never bet anywhere I couldn't cancel I need to.

[cj]

CJ,

I asked earlier but didnt get a response. Is it illegal to manipulate the pools? If not, I dont know the grounds MNR would have to stop it and dont see how they could be blamed. I imagine the issue is complicated by the ADW's and their rules as well.

I don't know if it is illegal, but it shouldn't be allowed.

If as we always hear ADW money is added to the pools late, it has to bet and canceled on track, right?

[Saratoga_Mike]

I don't know if it is illegal, but it shouldn't be allowed.

If as we always hear ADW money is added to the pools late, it has to bet and canceled on track, right?

I thought (assumed actually) ADW money was co-mingled with the pools every few minutes? Does the timing of the co-mingling differ for each track (perhaps state)? Differ depending on the ADW?

[cj]

I thought (assumed actually) ADW money was co-mingled with the pools every few minutes? Does the timing of the co-mingling differ for each track (perhaps state)? Differ depending on the ADW?

I really don't know. Isn't this game hard enough without tracks (or ADWs, tracks by default in any case) allowing these types of shenanigans? There is no excuse for allowing this to happen. At the very least, there should be a limit...no cancels after 5 mtp or something similar.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I really don't know. Isn't this game hard enough without tracks (or ADWs, tracks by default in any case) allowing these types of shenanigans? There is no excuse for allowing this to happen. At the very least, there should be a limit...no cancels after 5 mtp or something similar.

I agree with you, but until your post I just always assumed ADW money (and OTB parlor money for that matter) hit the pools every couple of minutes or so. Maybe one of the ADW operators here can address this issue.

[porchy44]

A lot of the money coincidentally finds it way on the winner in the latter stages of a lot of races. But anyone that watches races alot already knows that.

[therussmeister]

I agree with you, but until your post I just always assumed ADW money (and OTB parlor money for that matter) hit the pools every couple of minutes or so. Maybe one of the ADW operators here can address this issue.
At least when simulcasting first started, I always assumed the money hit the pools in one fell swoop after wagering closed. That's why there is a big odds change during the running of the race. It is common for the win pool to be $10,000 when the gate opens and $45,000 when all the money is counted, which roughly matches the ratio of on track handle to total handle reported in the form results charts.

Furthermore, there have been a few occasions where a technical glitch has caused an inability to transmit wagers from my local track, which resulted in a refund, but I've never heard of a refund only for the people who bet in the last few minutes, because that is when the glitch occurred. It's always a refund for all. If the bets hit the pools minute by minute, they would have to recall the money transmitted before the glitch in order to refund it, and how would they do that with the glitch?

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

A lot of the money coincidentally finds it way on the winner in the latter stages of a lot of races. But anyone that watches races alot already knows that.

I keep seeing these claims, but never any proof.

I do NOT see this at NYRA tracks.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

http://www.twinspires.com/content/wagercancellation

[davew]

I think it depends on track, and pool size


if your ADW shows pools, you can estimate how much shows up after the start

I have seen on some small pools around 90% shows up after the race start


mountaineer has a 'mad bomber' that the annoucers/commentators mention

frequently bets $5K or $10K in win pool very early
sometimes it all stays, sometimes chunks disappear
when it shows in place pool as well, it usually stays

it sure is frustrating with this horse 1/9, your pick (which you feel is worthy at 3/1) at 8/1 and as loading gate, you bet as well as many others

and your horse finishes at 8/5 while bomber horse drifted up to over 2/1

[jorcus]

Q: How do I cancel a Wager?
A:

Online wager cancellations are not permitted in the State of New York.


So I'll assume other states are working under different rules.

I use twin spires and I am able to cancel a wager in New York and on NYRA races. Did one yesterday becuse I messed up an exacta.

[jorcus]

I agree with you, but until your post I just always assumed ADW money (and OTB parlor money for that matter) hit the pools every couple of minutes or so. Maybe one of the ADW operators here can address this issue.

I know Twinspires money hits the pools when it updates becuse I have bet early into small pools and have seen my bets show up.

[EagleEye Po]

MTP
Below is the race's betting pattern:

Pgm # M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 15 7/2 4 7/2 7/2 4 9/2 9/2 18 18 19 14 17
2 3 22 17 15 14 11 10 9 25 25 21 2 2
3 15 35 30 21 22 24 23 19 60 60 50 25 30
4 20 15 16 14 11 11 11 11 35 35 35 30 30
5 30 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 80 80 80 60 60
6 7/2 2 2 5/2 5/2 3 7/2 7/2 15 15 15 8 8
7 30 19 18 21 18 16 17 17 50 50 50 60 50
8 5 19 17 12 12 11 9 8 25 25 18 8/5 2
9 12 22 16 17 18 18 19 20 50 45 30 16 17
10 2 8/5 8/5 9/5 9/5 8/5 8/5 8/5 1/9 1/9 1/9 3 5/2
Win Pool: $1,054 $1,126 $1,311 $1,456 $1,737 $1,966 $2,075 $7,240 $7,495 $7,871 $14,851 $19,908

[Relwob Owner]

first race...horse just went from even to 1 to 9

[castaway01]

MTP
Below is the race's betting pattern:

Pgm # M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 15 7/2 4 7/2 7/2 4 9/2 9/2 18 18 19 14 17
2 3 22 17 15 14 11 10 9 25 25 21 2 2
3 15 35 30 21 22 24 23 19 60 60 50 25 30
4 20 15 16 14 11 11 11 11 35 35 35 30 30
5 30 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 80 80 80 60 60
6 7/2 2 2 5/2 5/2 3 7/2 7/2 15 15 15 8 8
7 30 19 18 21 18 16 17 17 50 50 50 60 50
8 5 19 17 12 12 11 9 8 25 25 18 8/5 2
9 12 22 16 17 18 18 19 20 50 45 30 16 17
10 2 8/5 8/5 9/5 9/5 8/5 8/5 8/5 1/9 1/9 1/9 3 5/2
Win Pool: $1,054 $1,126 $1,311 $1,456 $1,737 $1,966 $2,075 $7,240 $7,495 $7,871 $14,851 $19,908

I know late money and all that, but that's just bizarre. Whether or not it's legal, the fact it could happen would make me think twice about betting there. And yes, I know late money comes in everywhere, but find me races at other tracks where the favorite goes from 1-9 to 3-1 in the last minute before post. I've watched I don't know how many races and I've never seen anything like it.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

cancelled the bet on the fave, and bet it on the 2 and the 8?

very odd indeed.

[bigmack]

MTP
Below is the race's betting pattern:

Pgm # M/L 20 17 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 Final
1 15 7/2 4 7/2 7/2 4 9/2 9/2 18 18 19 14 17
2 3 22 17 15 14 11 10 9 25 25 21 2 2
3 15 35 30 21 22 24 23 19 60 60 50 25 30
4 20 15 16 14 11 11 11 11 35 35 35 30 30
5 30 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 80 80 80 60 60
6 7/2 2 2 5/2 5/2 3 7/2 7/2 15 15 15 8 8
7 30 19 18 21 18 16 17 17 50 50 50 60 50
8 5 19 17 12 12 11 9 8 25 25 18 8/5 2
9 12 22 16 17 18 18 19 20 50 45 30 16 17
10 2 8/5 8/5 9/5 9/5 8/5 8/5 8/5 1/9 1/9 1/9 3 5/2
Win Pool: $1,054 $1,126 $1,311 $1,456 $1,737 $1,966 $2,075 $7,240 $7,495 $7,871 $14,851 $19,908
Where did you get this data?

[Relwob Owner]

9th race looks like something is up....4 is 1 to 9. I predict she will end up around even money, six to 5, with the 3 coming down to 2 to 1 or 5 to 2. We will see

[Some_One]

This mad bomber ain't the greatest handicapper, or unlucky, looking at the tote data from HPI in August, I have him down about 1 unit in August, of course that assumes equal stakes on every play which we would never know.

[Robert Goren]

What happens with the pools is the least of the reasons on why you should or should not play a small racino track. MNR is no worse than other small racino tracks and better than some.

[lamboguy]

robert, we live in a world of "high frequency trading", while the odds changes show up more right now in smaller pools, you can expect the bigger ones to act exactly the same as the smaller ones if and only if THEY ALLOW IT TO HAPPEN. AQUEDUCT will be a racino in 2012 some time.

[lamboguy]

This mad bomber ain't the greatest handicapper, or unlucky, looking at the tote data from HPI in August, I have him down about 1 unit in August, of course that assumes equal stakes on every play which we would never know.if he is down 1 unit he should be ahead of the game after the rebate. he must have played over 30 races so far this month. down 1 is no doubt a winner. he could be getting as much as 12% rebate if he is playing in a casino that doesn't mind working on 2%, and getting their share of the breakage.

[Relwob Owner]

robert, we live in a world of "high frequency trading", while the odds changes show up more right now in smaller pools, you can expect the bigger ones to act exactly the same as the smaller ones if and only if THEY ALLOW IT TO HAPPEN. AQUEDUCT will be a racino in 2012 some time.

I have asked if what is going on is illegal and no one has said that it is. So, what exactly is and ADW or individual track supposed to do, other than disabling the ability to cancel? I think CJ suggested a cutoff point but doing that defeats the purpose of canceling, as most do it pretty close to post time.

[cj]

I have asked if what is going on is illegal and no one has said that it is. So, what exactly is and ADW or individual track supposed to do, other than disabling the ability to cancel? I think CJ suggested a cutoff point but doing that defeats the purpose of canceling, as most do it pretty close to post time.

The only reason to cancel should be a mistake, not because the odds change, and certainly not to manipulate pools.

[lamboguy]

i am pretty sure i know who the mad bomber is. if its him he is not so mad. he does not cancel bets, he lives and dies with them. he doesn't just play the mountain either, you can find him anywhere that there is non-synthetic surface.

when the mad bomber bets at the mountain the win pools are close to $30k these days, when he's not in, the pools are less than $15k. that is pretty sad because i remember the days that those win pools were over $50k on nickle non winner racers with 10 horses in the field.

the irony here is that they need the mad bomber in those pools to get some type of a semblence of handle these days. the mad bomber is not the remedy for the decline longtrerm in racing handles. racing has gone bad due to pure unabashed greed. like inventing multi horse exotic wagering with high takeout. in hong kong and japan, they don't have multi horse exotics and they do $100 million handles some days. but it does take japan 10 minutes to make a race offcial. every race is watched on replays by the judges, if something looks wrong they call in the parties involved with the horse in question, owner, rider and trainer. people over there don't mind waiting for the official sign to go up. they like being protected. also i hear that takeout is higher there than here.

[Relwob Owner]

The only reason to cancel should be a mistake, not because the odds change, and certainly not to manipulate pools.


So, if you are betting a horse through an ADW 8 minutes before post time and he is 3 to 1 and with a minute to post, he is 3 to 5, you dont think you should be able to cancel the bet if you are using an ADW?

If you have the ability to cancel, seems like you should be able to do so for any reason IMO

[cj]

So, if you are betting a horse through an ADW 8 minutes before post time and he is 3 to 1 and with a minute to post, he is 3 to 5, you dont think you should be able to cancel the bet if you are using an ADW?

If you have the ability to cancel, seems like you should be able to do so for any reason IMO

That is part of it being a parimutuel game. You are never going to get fixed odds. Allowing people to cancel because they don't like the odds is ridiculous. It could cause chaos at post time.

It also can be used to manipulate pools and create an unfair advantage. Many people are looking at the odds and trying to determine which horse offers an edge. If someone bets large sums on a horse, knowing it will be removed, they have a huge edge on the crowd. I hardly think that is the intent of allowing people to cancel.

[Some_One]

i am pretty sure i know who the mad bomber is. if its him he is not so mad. he does not cancel bets, he lives and dies with them. he doesn't just play the mountain either, you can find him anywhere that there is non-synthetic surface.

when the mad bomber bets at the mountain the win pools are close to $30k these days, when he's not in, the pools are less than $15k. that is pretty sad because i remember the days that those win pools were over $50k on nickle non winner racers with 10 horses in the field.

the irony here is that they need the mad bomber in those pools to get some type of a semblence of handle these days. the mad bomber is not the remedy for the decline longtrerm in racing handles. racing has gone bad due to pure unabashed greed. like inventing multi horse exotic wagering with high takeout. in hong kong and japan, they don't have multi horse exotics and they do $100 million handles some days. but it does take japan 10 minutes to make a race offcial. every race is watched on replays by the judges, if something looks wrong they call in the parties involved with the horse in question, owner, rider and trainer. people over there don't mind waiting for the official sign to go up. they like being protected. also i hear that takeout is higher there than here.
I believe the mad bomber is cancelling bets as the total pool increase from 1 MTP to 0 MTP is about half when he bombs compared to any other normal race at MNR.

[Robert Goren]

That is part of it being a parimutuel game. You are never going to get fixed odds. Allowing people to cancel because they don't like the odds is ridiculous. It could cause chaos at post time.

It also can be used to manipulate pools and create an unfair advantage. Many people are looking at the odds and trying to determine which horse offers an edge. If someone bets large sums on a horse, knowing it will be removed, they have a huge edge on the crowd. I hardly think that is the intent of allowing people to cancel.If preventing chaos is your goal, a better plan is to prevent large bets at post time. Those reek havoc at on the odds at tracks of all sizes and they happen a hell of lot more often than canceling bets do.

[Relwob Owner]

That is part of it being a parimutuel game. You are never going to get fixed odds. Allowing people to cancel because they don't like the odds is ridiculous. It could cause chaos at post time.

It also can be used to manipulate pools and create an unfair advantage. Many people are looking at the odds and trying to determine which horse offers an edge. If someone bets large sums on a horse, knowing it will be removed, they have a huge edge on the crowd. I hardly think that is the intent of allowing people to cancel.


I dont think the intent is either, but being allowed to cancel in general is going to obviously lead to people doing it for other reasons and there is no way to stop it. You have said that there should be a cutoff at 5 minutes to post or something like that. You also said that cancelling should be done only when a mistake is made. So, what happens in your scenario when a mistake is made with 3 MTP then?

I think the pool manipulation is atrocious and should be eliminated. My point is that currently, there is no way to get rid of it happening without an ADW specifically investigating specific people. In a perfect world, they would do it but I dont see it happening.

[lamboguy]

I believe the mad bomber is cancelling bets as the total pool increase from 1 MTP to 0 MTP is about half when he bombs compared to any other normal race at MNR.
you could be right, the guy that i know that plays that way plays in a casino in vegas and they wouldn't let anyone do that in a million years.

[Prairie Bettor]

when the mad bomber bets at the mountain the win pools are close to $30k these days, when he's not in, the pools are less than $15k. that is pretty sad because i remember the days that those win pools were over $50k on nickle non winner racers with 10 horses in the field.

the irony here is that they need the mad bomber in those pools.

We have a winner!

[cj]

I think the pool manipulation is atrocious and should be eliminated. My point is that currently, there is no way to get rid of it happening without an ADW specifically investigating specific people. In a perfect world, they would do it but I dont see it happening.

Of course there are ways to get rid of it that don't involve investigating anyone. If you make a wager, and you leave the window, it is yours. If it is online, you have a minute, or you can only do cancel a limited number of times in a certain time period. There are ways to fix it if anyone cares that are certainly better than the status quo.

[Relwob Owner]

Of course there are ways to get rid of it that don't involve investigating anyone. If you make a wager, and you leave the window, it is yours. If it is online, you have a minute, or you can only do cancel a limited number of times in a certain time period. There are ways to fix it if anyone cares that are certainly better than the status quo.


CJ,

I had only thought of how hard it would be to prevent bettors from the cutting it off with a certain MTP because that would leave some people unable to cancel if they did indeed make a mistake during that window. I hadnt thought about what you suggested in terms of putting a limit on time to be able to cancel after making the bet. That is spot on.:ThmbUp:

[Some_One]

Bomber goes down in Mnr4, about 19K in the win pool, 42K was matched on Betfair. Betfair SP on the 3 was .48-1, with 20K matched at .45-1

Price Traded
1.43 $409
1.45 $19,939
1.46 $2,383
1.47 $909
1.48 $834
1.49 $1,389
1.50 $4,450
1.51 $1,024

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Thinking about what the purpose of cancellation is.

Well, if a manipulator bets 5000 and drives the price so low that no one will bet it, and gets the public to bet others at inflated odds, and THEN cancels 4000 of the bet, he's going to get overlaid odds on the remainder of his play.

I haven't seen manipulation explained, so I thought I'd put it out there. Hope I'm not encouraging any of the larcenous here to do something untoward.

[mountainman]

the irony here is that they need the mad bomber in those pools to get some type of a semblence of handle these days.

$1.3 mil per night (our 2010 avg) is a poor handle in this current economy for track that distributes less than 10% that much in purses?? huh???? And if we need the mad bomber, what do our competitor tracks need, an obama stimulus plan?????
Checked the handle lately on mid-atlantic tracks that oppose us at night?????
Last saturday's form had an informative fold-out section that removes all doubt about who handles what, both comparatively, and in ratio to purse distribution.

[lamboguy]

common mark, you know better. its not the economy, its the product. but its not just mountaineer, its all over. i remember the days that i looked forward to the mountain because i could bet $500 to win a horse and not effect the pool. today i have to wait for the mad- bomber to come in and make a poor choice so i can bet $100 against it. my economy has not gotton any worse, just the amount of money that i can bet parimutuely these days is in a depression. also mark, part of the reason whey the handle hasn't declined further at the mountain is because of the advent of superfecta's and other multiple forms of wagering and you know those players aren't going to last forever. i loved the mountain becacuse they didn't need to cut into the win pool pool for their handle. a great win pool like what the mountain had has dropped off the face of the earth. take the madbomber out of the equaision and you don't even do $20k these days in that pool.

[Robert Goren]

Actually the more I think about this, the more I like what he is doing. Let face it the people getting screwed here are the programed bettors who have their bets go in when the odds are such and such or higher at a certain MTP. The live bettor would realize what is going on after the first time and adjusts accordingly. I know there are plenty of programmed bettors who post here, but I not going shed any tears for them. They are gaming the system as much as this guy is. He has just figured out a way to beat them at their own game and I say "More Power to Him."

[lamboguy]

the madbomber is like a market maker in the stock market. the mountain must have at least 500 people waiting for this guy to make his move and then they make theirs. without the madbomber these people wouldn't even look at the moutnain for 5 minutes today, let alone every race on the program. while these people wait for him they might make a few superfecta keys or boxes to keep them interest up.

[mountainman]

common mark, you know better. its not the economy, its the product. but its not just mountaineer, its all over. i remember the days that i looked forward to the mountain because i could bet $500 to win a horse and not effect the pool. today i have to wait for the mad- bomber to come in and make a poor choice so i can bet $100 against it. my economy has not gotton any worse, just the amount of money that i can bet parimutuely these days is in a depression. also mark, part of the reason whey the handle hasn't declined further at the mountain is because of the advent of superfecta's and other multiple forms of wagering and you know those players aren't going to last forever. i loved the mountain becacuse they didn't need to cut into the win pool pool for their handle. a great win pool like what the mountain had has dropped off the face of the earth. take the madbomber out of the equaision and you don't even do $20k these days in that pool.

No Phil, you're making an unfair comparison of our current state to how things were for us 6 or 7 years ago before the slot- landscape changed and when the economy was much better. And you undermine your own argument by admitting that handle is down EVERYWHERE. Compare us to other mid-atlantic tracks that race nights-or to tracks that pay out a similar amount in purses. That would be fair.

[lamboguy]

my selfish reason is very simple, 3 years ago you had win pools over $70k some days. today without the madbomber its under $20k.total handle back them was often $2million, today it is $1,3. the total handle has gone down less than 40% while the win pool is down 70%. that is a huge drop. the economy hasn't dropped 70% yet.

[mountainman]

my selfish reason is very simple, 3 years ago you had win pools over $70k some days. today without the madbomber its under $20k.total handle back them was often $2million, today it is $1,3. the total handle has gone down less than 40% while the win pool is down 70%. that is a huge drop. the economy hasn't dropped 70% yet.

Voodoo math. And again, the unfair comparison of how we now fare to how we fared YEARS ago when the economy was much stronger-and before slots had spread to such an extent.

[lamboguy]

mark, the mountain was the leader in evening racing. people bet the mountain as their main track and then went and a few races on the other tracks that happened to have run in the same time frame. without people betting the mountain, you lose the people that will have bet the other places. if the economy is that bad, then i would think that race betting would go up today. you are able to stay at home and bet and not have to travel to the track and pay for the admission, pay for their programs and racing forms and buy the expensive food that racetracks sell you. during the period of our country's worst economic conditons, the only thing that did well were race tracks. so i don't think its the economy that are scaring people away from racing, its the structure and the product of the game. until guys like you admit to that, the game will go downhill further. the bad economy only holds as much water as it can, eventually its the fundementals of the game, and lets be honest with each other, it flat out stinks.

[mountainman]

mark, the mountain was the leader in evening racing. people bet the mountain as their main track and then went and a few races on the other tracks that happened to have run in the same time frame. without people betting the mountain, you lose the people that will have bet the other places. if the economy is that bad, then i would think that race betting would go up today. you are able to stay at home and bet and not have to travel to the track and pay for the admission, pay for their programs and racing forms and buy the expensive food that racetracks sell you. during the period of our country's worst economic conditons, the only thing that did well were race tracks. so i don't think its the economy that are scaring people away from racing, its the structure and the product of the game. until guys like you admit to that, the game will go downhill further. the bad economy only holds as much water as it can, eventually its the fundementals of the game, and lets be honest with each other, it flat out stinks.

I don't disagree with some of this, but now you're meandering-and nothing here refutes any point in my post. But "guys like me" ??? Really, Phil? C'mon, I'm a foot soldier, not a general, and you know it. I'm paid to analyze races, not to set company policy or address issues that plague the industry.

[lamboguy]

when it comes to mountaineer park, you are the voice for them. when you constantly knock the economy for the ills of the racing game, people will start to believe it and think that when the economy comes back racing will too. racing is fundementally and structuraly unsound. the greatest economy known to man won't help this game without a complete overhaul. japan has had the worst economy for over 20 years now and racing has been on the upswing there. its a worse economy than ours. when you do some logical thinking you will see the flaws in this game and try to fix them instead of blaming the economy

[mountainman]

when it comes to mountaineer park, you are the voice for them. when you constantly knock the economy for the ills of the racing game, people will start to believe it and think that when the economy comes back racing will too. racing is fundementally and structuraly unsound. the greatest economy known to man won't help this game without a complete overhaul. japan has had the worst economy for over 20 years now and racing has been on the upswing there. its a worse economy than ours. when you do some logical thinking you will see the flaws in this game and try to fix them instead of blaming the economy

You're saying the economy is NOT a factor in declining handle? Don't pontificate. Just a simple yes-or no. And I haven't "constantly" knocked anything, Phil. I merely, and correctly, stated that the landscape has changed, and it's unfair to hold us to 2004 standards. That hardly makes me someone who is unaware of, or insensitive to the ills within our industry.

[lamboguy]

You're saying the economy is NOT a factor in declining handle? Don't pontificate. Just a simple yes-or no. And I haven't "constantly" knocked anything, Phil. I merely, and correctly, stated that the landscape has changed, and it's unfair to hold us to 2004 standards. That hardly makes me someone who is unaware of, or insensitive to the ills within our industry.
absolutely 100% the economy has nothing at all to do with the decline in horse racing. if anything the bad economy has kept it around now. all of racing is a very poor product now mark, not just the shortened fields of mountaineer. the other day i watched races in presque isles with purses double yours that had $6000 in the win pool. i see sulfolk downs, basically the same type of product as moutaineer and they only have $25k in their win pools and they run in the afternoon. its really the same all over america these days. the few that have been able to maintain their handles are saratoga, who put out a superior product.indiana down's has gone up as well with a better product. one thing i could have counted on for mountaineer is when they have 10 races, 8 of them would have 10 horse fields. today the number is probably closer to 7. mountaineer used to have highly comepetive racing. the other night i watched almost every race that the odds on favorite won the race. the races there always have horses in it that finish 20 lengths behind the winner. its not exciting like it used to be, its flat out boring. don't take it personal, i love you, i love nancy and i do love the mountain,and i am not even blaming the mountain for this, i blame racing and people involved in it like myself for the state that it is in today.

[mountainman]

the madbomber is like a market maker in the stock market. the mountain must have at least 500 people waiting for this guy to make his move and then they make theirs. without the madbomber these people wouldn't even look at the moutnain for 5 minutes today, let alone every race on the program. while these people wait for him they might make a few superfecta keys or boxes to keep them interest up.

So the mad bomber's antics are good for our program?? Prevalent opinion on this thread would indicate otherwise, sir. Shall I quote from a few posts?

[mountainman]

absolutely 100% the economy has nothing at all to do with the decline in horse racing. if anything the bad economy has kept it around now. all of racing is a very poor product now mark, not just the shortened fields of mountaineer. the other day i watched races in presque isles with purses double yours that had $6000 in the win pool. i see sulfolk downs, basically the same type of product as moutaineer and they only have $25k in their win pools and they run in the afternoon. its really the same all over america these days. the few that have been able to maintain their handles are saratoga, who put out a superior product.indiana down's has gone up as well with a better product. one thing i could have counted on for mountaineer is when they have 10 races, 8 of them would have 10 horse fields. today the number is probably closer to 7. mountaineer used to have highly comepetive racing. the other night i watched almost every race that the odds on favorite won the race. the races there always have horses in it that finish 20 lengths behind the winner. its not exciting like it used to be, its flat out boring. don't take it personal, i love you, i love nancy and i do love the mountain,and i am not even blaming the mountain for this, i blame racing and people involved in it like myself for the state that it is in today.

I like you too, Phil. But some of your points are unsubstantiated, others pure opinion, and a few downright innacurate.

[lamboguy]

instead of competing with other forms of gambling, horseracing has decided to sit back and do nothing. in our county today, the hurdle racing is giant with increasing attendance every year. they get 50,000 people to pay and watch those things and they can't bet.

in england with the same gambling competition as we have, interest in racing has not declined.

no matter what kind of math you use, you cannot come up with the conclusion that the economy has hurt racing. its racing that has hurt racing in this country.

[mountainman]

instead of competing with other forms of gambling, horseracing has decided to sit back and do nothing. in our county today, the hurdle racing is giant with increasing attendance every year. they get 50,000 people to pay and watch those things and they can't bet.

in england with the same gambling competition as we have, interest in racing has not declined.

no matter what kind of math you use, you cannot come up with the conclusion that the economy has hurt racing. its racing that has hurt racing in this country.

It's still unfair to hold us to a standard set seven years ago. Much has changed since then. Once again, compare us to our after-dark or regional competitors, or to tracks that distribute similar purses.

[lamboguy]

It's still unfair to hold us to a standard set seven years ago. Much has changed since then.i am not holding you to any standard. its no different anywhere else. the problems that mountaineer has is no different than any other place. every racing secretary that i speak to these days tell me that every day is a challenge to fill races, it wasn't that way years ago.

why can't racing at least have uniform drug laws and tests for them? that can't be that tough. and it would be a pretty easy first step to somewhat revive this game.

[mountainman]

why can't racing at least have uniform drug laws and tests for them? that can't be that tough. and it would be a pretty easy first step to somewhat revive this game.
Spot on. This is a bandwagon I've been on for years. It's ridiculous when a 12% trainer ships across state lines to an equivalent track and consistently wins at a 50% clip. Just ridiculous.

[lamboguy]

i bet a horse last month, he finished second. i left my money at the window. today i find out that the horse that beat mine tested positive for a preformance enhancing drug, my money is still in the window, the owner and trainer are getting paid like the horse won the stupid race.

the public don't know these things. if they did you will have less people betting it. do you think its fair?

i get more results by arguing on this board with you than i can get with the NTRA

[mountainman]

i bet a horse last month, he finished second. i left my money at the window. today i find out that the horse that beat mine tested positive for a preformance enhancing drug, my money is still in the window, the owner and trainer are getting paid like the horse won the stupid race.

the public don't know these things. if they did you will have less people betting it. do you think its fair?

i get more results by arguing on this board with you than i can get with the NTRA

I've attacked unscrupulous trainers several times in my blog. My most recent one tried--I mean TRIED-- to tick certain super-trainers off.

[mountainman]

Earthquake just rocked us. Alone here in office, floor buckled and rippled like ocean waves, glass rattled and grandstand shook.

[bigmack]

MTN was kind enough to let Rosa Pantera off at 9-1. All is well. :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

MTN was kind enough to let Rosa Pantera off at 9-1. All is well. :ThmbUp:
i don't think it gets any better! that horse should have been half that price

[cj]

The Hoosier $100 winner tonight should have paid $8.

[bigmack]

The Hoosier $100 winner tonight should have paid $8.
That's a stretch.

[Relwob Owner]

MTN was kind enough to let Rosa Pantera off at 9-1. All is well. :ThmbUp:


Hang in there through some of the strange stuff BM. It is worth it and nice hit :ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

Hang in there through some of the strange stuff BM. It is worth it and nice hit :ThmbUp:
Yeah, I'm working gingerly but have been fortunate to find a few decent plays.

Much obliged, RO. :ThmbUp:

[Relwob Owner]

Yeah, I'm working gingerly but have been fortunate to find a few decent plays.

Much obliged, RO. :ThmbUp:


Awesome. My biggest issue is that I dont sit out enough races and gingerly is a good way to go at kit up there IMO. :ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

This rube just cancelled his $5KW on the 6 in the 8th. :bang:

Nutty affair.

[Relwob Owner]

This rube just cancelled his $5KW on the 6 in the 8th. :bang:

Nutty affair.


Yep and then may have just put a bit more on...like the 4 a smidge