FORMULA'S PROPORTION WIN POOL ODDS PLAYS

[formula_2002]

previous results
8-14-2011 11 wins 13.74 expected wins , 30 races
8-13-2011 5 wins 4.12 expected wins 7 races 27 horses played
8-11-2011 13 wins 12.40 expected wins 28 races 109 horses played
8-06-2011 5 wins 4.57 expected wins 11 races 51 horses played
8-04-2011 12 wins 7.7 expected wins 15 races 62 horses played

[formula_2002]

previous results
8-14-2011 11 wins 13.74 expected wins , 30 races
8-13-2011 5 wins 4.12 expected wins 7 races 27 horses played
8-11-2011 13 wins 12.40 expected wins 28 races 109 horses played
8-06-2011 5 wins 4.57 expected wins 11 races 51 horses played
8-04-2011 12 wins 7.7 expected wins 15 races 62 horses played
"Penn National
Race
1

Post
6:00

MTP
2

PGNO ex box
1
2 1
3
4 1
5 1
6
7
8
9
10

[formula_2002]

"Mountaineer
Race
9

Post
10:22

MTP
3

PGNO ex box
1 1
2
3 1
4
5
6 1
7 1
8
9
10

[whobet]

Did you make a profit Formula ???

[formula_2002]

"Mountaineer
Race
9

Post
10:22

MTP
3

PGNO ex box
1 1
2
3 1
4
5
6 1
7 1
8
9
10

Mountaineer - Race 9
# Win Place Show
1 $8.40 $4.40 $3.80



Mountaineer - Race 9
# Win Place Show
1 $8.40 $4.40 $3.80

[formula_2002]

Did you make a profit Formula ???
prior to 8/14/2011 . it was BREAK EVEN.
INCLUDING 8/14/2011 RESULTS THERE WAS A 10% LOSS
date wins e wins # races # horses
8/14/2011 11 16.76 30 130
8/13/2011 5 5.02 7 27
8/11/2011 13 15.12 28 109
8/6/2011 5 5.58 11 51
8/4/2011 12 8.88 15 62
totals 46 51.36 91 379

actual win =46
expected wins based on track odds =51.36
The play bet 51.36 % of the field based on their odds.
to break even, it should have won 51.36% of the time
It only won 46%.
when you adjust the expected wins for the track vig, the expected wins = 51.36/1.22 =41.27.
so if there were no vig the profit would be 11.5%
these results are better than those in a previous 300+ race study.

[formula_2002]

I just tallied 8/5/2011 into the mix. it brought the loss down to 9%



date wins expected wins # races # horses
8/14/2011 11 16.76 30 130
8/13/2011 5 5.02 7 27
8/11/2011 13 15.12 28 109
8/5/2011 12 12.38 25 104
8/6/2011 5 5.58 11 51
8/4/2011 12 8.88 15 62
totals 58 63.74 116 483

[formula_2002]

I added 8/7/2011 results see attached.
69 wins vs 78.77 win = a loss of 12.4%