Question about free plays and authorized advertisers

[Greyfox]

Yes, of course, and it has never been any different for any advertiser here.

The thread is about the e-book. So I don't want to spend much time on this.
I think that any site that gives out "Free Plays" deserves kudos.
Having said that, a given site could have two months worth of winning plays and then perhaps three weeks where they go in the tank. You know that yourself.
That's horse racing. It's cyclical.
For some tire kicker to come in and point out that any specific site that offers Free picks isn't working, makes little sense to me.
The type of thread that you are suggesting wouldn't be of much value unless 10 or 20 other Free Play sites were compared over a long period of time, say a year or so. Specifically targeting any Site X without that type of comparison is meaningless and that's why I raised my query as I was surprised you'd even suggest it as another thread.

[cj]

The thread is about the e-book. So I don't want to spend much time on this.
I think that any site that gives out "Free Plays" deserves kudos.
Having said that, a given site could have two months worth of winning plays and then perhaps three weeks where they go in the tank. You know that yourself.
That's horse racing. It's cyclical.
For some tire kicker to come in and point out that any specific site that offers Free picks isn't working, makes little sense to me.
The type of thread that you are suggesting wouldn't be of much value unless 10 or 20 other Free Play sites were compared over a long period of time, say a year or so. Specifically targeting any Site X without that type of comparison is meaningless and that's why I raised my query as I was surprised you'd even suggest it as another thread.

This is a carryover from the Logical Longshots the eBook thread in the Handicapping Library section.

Everything you say is true. However, there is nothing wrong with starting a thread and saying how a site's picks, numbers, ratings, or whatever are doing, whether they are free or for pay. This goes for Authorized Advertisers as well as anyone else. I would think it should be fair, truthful, and verifiable.

Anytime a site has been scrutinized here, people on both sides of the fence will post. This isn't a site where people can't say anything negative about advertisers. Calling the guy a tire kicker seems a little silly. I don't think he violated any of the Terms of Service. He posted off topic in a thread, which happens in about 98% of all threads.

[Greyfox]

Start a new thread, I'll be happy to address this there.

Why would I start a thread about a thread that shouldn't be started without appropriate comparative work? :rolleyes:
Now I think I'll look into that e-book.

[Gapfire]

Everything you say is true. However, there is nothing wrong with starting a thread and saying how a site's picks, numbers, ratings, or whatever are doing, whether they are free or for pay. This goes for Authorized Advertisers as well as anyone else. I would think it should be fair, truthful, and verifiable.


Absolutely, but you forgot to mention a time frame. How can anyone assess something without looking at it long term.

You could look really great for a few days, or really bad. It says nothing about the service overall.

[cj]

Absolutely, but you forgot to mention a time frame. How can anyone assess something without looking at it long term.

You could look really great for a few days, or really bad. It says nothing about the service overall.

I totally agree, and I think posters are smart enough to figure that out without this site resorting to censorship.

[Greyfox]

I raised this question in the context of another thread.
It and another post of mine were deleted for what were valid reasons.
That cj or whoever would start this new thread under my avatar without the courtesy of at least asking me whether or not I wanted to pursue this is wrong.

[PaceAdvantage]

That cj or whoever would start this new thread under my avatar without the courtesy of at least asking me whether or not I wanted to pursue this is wrong.What exactly do you mean "would start this new thread under my avatar? You didn't start this thread?

[cj]

What exactly do you mean "would start this new thread under my avatar? You didn't start this thread?

I split it from the other section so as not take away from the book thread. I explained this in a PM to Greyfox, his just happened to be first after the split. He asked questions that I wanted to answer. I wasn't trying to disparage him.

[Greyfox]

What exactly do you mean "would start this new thread under my avatar? You didn't start this thread?

I didn't start this thread but the issue has been resolved to my satisfaction after PM exchanges with cj. Nothing to worry about.

[CBedo]

Absolutely, but you forgot to mention a time frame. How can anyone assess something without looking at it long term.

You could look really great for a few days, or really bad. It says nothing about the service overall.I understand that even the world's greatest handicapper doesn't win every day or even every week, but to say "it says nothing about the service..." is ludicrous. It's marketing isn't it? It just so happens in this instance that the chunk or time that that dansan picked for his sample (his term was "awhile") turned out to seemingly have a negative influence on him specifically.

If it says nothing about the service, then why do it in the first place?

[Gapfire]

I understand that even the world's greatest handicapper doesn't win every day or even every week, but to say "it says nothing about the service..." is ludicrous. It's marketing isn't it? It just so happens in this instance that the chunk or time that that dansan picked for his sample (his term was "awhile") turned out to seemingly have a negative influence on him specifically.

If it says nothing about the service, then why do it in the first place?

We won today. Does that mean we will win every day? Just as it would be wrong for me to portray our free play as a winner all the time, dansan's implication was equally unfair.

[CBedo]

We won today. Does that mean we will win every day? Just as it would be wrong for me to portray our free play as a winner all the time, dansan's implication was equally unfair.Maybe he went about it the wrong way in the wrong spot, but I do think he intimates at the legitimate question of "can one win long term betting lots of combinations?"

Today is a perfect example actually. From your site:

"Exactas? Consider: 2/1-4-7-9 ; box 1-2-4-7; exacta 1-2-4-7/1-2-4-7-9"

If I counted right, that's 32 bets (16 unique combinations--3 @ 1 unit, 10 @ 2 units, & 3 @ 3 units). Pretty darn good handicapping to have your key horse run 2nd at 5.8 to 1 with one of your second string horses winning at 3.8 to 1 netting you a 30.20 exacta two times for a gross return of 60.40 & a net of +28.40.

So what seems like a better than average priced exacta (this could be totally off, I'm guessing) returns less than even money. Can you hit this type of bet enough times (or at the right price) to be profitable long term?

I don't know the answer for sure. I think (I hope) dansan was just trying to understand the philosophy of the free play and why it should work, to better understand the philosophy of the service (ok, that's a big leap to assume that's what he meant, but that's what he should have meant, lol).

[Gapfire]

If it says nothing about the service, then why do it in the first place?

Because over the long term, our free play does reflect our service.
I do believe that short term results are insignificant when you assess anyone's service or free plays.

Furthermore, our free play page is more than just a pickem page. My dad writes a daily blog with the odd joke, human interest stories etc. We have received many complimentary emails over the years about our free play page.

[Gapfire]

Maybe he went about it the wrong way in the wrong spot, but I do think he intimates at the legitimate question of "can one win long term betting lots of combinations?"

Today is a perfect example actually. From your site:

"Exactas? Consider: 2/1-4-7-9 ; box 1-2-4-7; exacta 1-2-4-7/1-2-4-7-9"

If I counted right, that's 32 bets (16 unique combinations--3 @ 1 unit, 10 @ 2 units, & 3 @ 3 units). Pretty darn good handicapping to have your key horse run 2nd at 5.8 to 1 with one of your second string horses winning at 3.8 to 1 netting you a 30.20 exacta two times for a gross return of 60.40 & a net of +28.40.

So what seems like a better than average priced exacta (this could be totally off, I'm guessing) returns less than even money. Can you hit this type of bet enough times (or at the right price) to be profitable long term?

I don't know the answer for sure. I think (I hope) dansan was just trying to understand the philosophy of the free play and why it should work, to better understand the philosophy of the service (ok, that's a big leap to assume that's what he meant, but that's what he should have meant, lol).

That exacta was actually low for a field of this size. Also, that's not the way we play every day. Do you see why I don't like short term assessments?

[speed]

That exacta was actually low for a field of this size. Also, that's not the way we play every day. Do you see why I don't like short term assessments?
Why not just tally the results for say 1 year from you're free plays that you guys are talking about, post them and that be the end of it?

[CBedo]

Why not just tally the results for say 1 year from you're free plays that you guys are talking about, post them and that be the end of it?He's saying that the free play doesn't represent the value of the service.

My take would be that even if it doesn't, how else does a prospective client judge the merit of possibly subscribing? Just a thought.

[Gapfire]

Why not just tally the results for say 1 year from you're free plays that you guys are talking about, post them and that be the end of it?

Good idea. Maybe next year at this time we will post the tally.
I'm not going to redboard the past year's results.

[Gapfire]

He's saying that the free play doesn't represent the value of the service.

My take would be that even if it doesn't, how else does a prospective client judge the merit of possibly subscribing? Just a thought.

I'm not saying that at all. I did not say:

"the free play doesn't represent the value of the service."

In fact, I said the exact opposite.

[speed]

Good idea. Maybe next year at this time we will post the tally.
I'm not going to redboard the past year's results.
It's not redboarding since you post the selections ahead of time on you're website. No reason not to do it.

[Gapfire]

It's not redboarding since you post the selections ahead of time on you're website. No reason not to do it.

You are welcome to do this if you like.

[CBedo]

Please stop misquoting me. I did not say:

"the free play doesn't represent the value of the service."

In fact, I said the exact opposite.I apologize. I totally read that wrong. Everyone please disregard entirely my last post.

[speed]

You are welcome to do this if you like.
WOW LOL
Not sure i expected that response. Kinda like the results may be not so good with a response like that. I don't know what to think now. Okay i am gonna bow out from this after that response and wish you all the best.
Best of luck

[Gapfire]

WOW LOL
Kinda like the results may be not so good with a response like that.


Why do you make an inference like this?

Our plays over the last year, or over the last 5 years for that matter, have returned a positive r.o.i.

[Tom]

Hey, the plays are free.
So is the Watchtower.....when you get a copy, do you feel compelled to convert?:D

Duh.

[headhawg]

I have to agree with Tom. If you don't like the product or how the advertiser chooses to operate then don't purchase it. Simple. If anyone is such a weak handicapper that they need to rely on free picks...well...perhaps they should take up another hobby.

Most people fail not because of the tools but because they don't know how to use them properly. And sometimes the tool that works well for one person is not a good one for somebody else. The truth is that most handicappers want to blame someone else for their complete suckage at playing the ponies.

[Gapfire]

I invite Cbedo, dansan, and Speed to be free guests to our Members Area.

Just contact me by PM, and I will give you details on how you can access our Members Area. FREE. No strings attached.

At least this way, if any of them have anything to say about our products, they will know of what they speak.

Thanks,

Kevin