Structuring Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers

[Qstick333]

Hello folks -

I have been playing exactas and trifectas for quite some time with reasonable success but have decided to make an attempt to play pick 3 and pick 4's. No pick 6's yet.

I'm hoping you guys can share either some preferred structures or resources that might point me in the proper direction. Tonight I played an won a Pick 3 that cost me $24 and returned $53. There must have been a better way. I also hit a double that paid 5.60, but that is a different story.

I appreciate any help you might be able to provide,

Zach

[MickJ26]

Since most tracks offer rolling pick 3's, you can pretty much pick out what you think is the most winable sequence. With the pick 4, the track makes the decision for you. Handicap the whole card and identify the most vulnerable favourites. If you can beat the chalk in at least two of the races, then you have a nice paying ticket. Always play the miminum base bet and if you like your ticket, play it multiple times to avoid the taxman. That's my strategy, good luck.

[Uncle Salty]

Steven Crist's book Exotic Betting lays out a pretty easy strategy for getting decent coverage on the Pick 3/4 while avoiding ballooning ticket costs.

[CBedo]

Sometimes when I'm betting small increments, I use a technique in the Pick 3 that I think I read in Mitchell's Commonsense Betting.

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

I have also done something somewhat similar in the pick 4, but it is situational. To me, betting doubles and pick 3s I am willing to miss it to get value for my ticket. With a Pick 5 or 6, usually, I am trying to stay alive (I know you need value in all tickets, but you know what I mean). The pick 4 is my inflection point, and how I bet it depends on the sequence.

[Uncle Salty]

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

I am going to have to try that one out. I use the method from Crist's book of 3x1x1, 1x3x1, and 1x1x3 every so often. The ticket cost is only $9, so it's a nice cheap bet for when you just want to have some action or you don't think you'll get a price on your key horses. But I always get burnt by not having enough coverage on it...I'll get a key horse home, but then one of the non-key secondaries will hit on the 2nd or 3rd leg and I'm out.

I am interested in the pick4 but I want to win one on paper before I start dishing out real money on that, as real coverage can get a bit expensive, even at a $.50 level.

[cnollfan]

Unless I love all three horses in the sequence, I won't bet any pick 3's that don't include a horse 6-1 or higher in at least one leg.

Pick 4's are the inflection point at which I am happy just to stay alive. I like using an A and B approach in the pick 4, betting all the combinations of 4 As, 3 As and one B, or 2 As and 2 Bs. It takes a few minutes to map out the bets but not that long now that I am used to the pattern. If I am off to a decent start in the sequence, I may use pick 3s or doubles to hedge with on subsequent legs.

I also don't like to use more than half the horses in a race. If I can't narrow it down to half of less, I will either use "all" (unless there is an absolutely hopeless horse ala Rick's Natural Star in the BC) or just pick one horse out to single. Using several horses while excluding several other horses you also think have a shot is a bad idea. You spend a lot of money but aren't really protected.

[Greyfox]

Sometimes when I'm betting small increments, I use a technique in the Pick 3 that I think I read in Mitchell's Commonsense Betting.

If you have 3 (or 4) horses per leg, instead of betting 3 x 3 x 3 for a $27 dollar wager, I'll choose a key horse in each leg (and try not to use more than one favorite as the key, two at the most), then bet three tickets, 1 x 3 x 3, 3 x 1 x 3, & 3 x 3 x 1. It's the same $27 cost, but I have the chance to hit it multiple times if more than one of my key horses wins. The downside I guess is that if one of your keys don't win, you can't hit the ticket, but I can live with missing it if I haven't done a great job of handicapping at least one of the races in the sequence.

.

Yes. But ouch does that hurt when the 3x3x3 would have put you up $500 and you're left holding $27 in losing tickets.
Consider both. One ticket 3x3x3 and one ticket with the other method.
You might get it up to 4 times.

[ten2oneormore]

I play rolling Pick 3's a lot.Most of the time I look for a sequence where I can start with a single and spread in the 2nd and 3rd legs.My single is never the favorite though and usually a mid to long shot.My thinking is that this almost assures me a decent payout given when the favorites lose in the 1st leg it knocks out a ton of tickets.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I like betting 5-6 horses/5-6 horses/2 horses..I only bet it if i really think 2 stand out in the 3rd leg.. 50-60 dollar bet..Then if the payouts are good going into the 3rd leg, you can always put your 2 in 2nd for the tri :) If you can narrow the 3rd leg down to one..will drop you to 25-30 dollar bet. The wheel that horse 2nd in the tri..

[CBedo]

Yes. But ouch does that hurt when the 3x3x3 would have put you up $500 and you're left holding $27 in losing tickets.
Consider both. One ticket 3x3x3 and one ticket with the other method.
You might get it up to 4 times.I agree with that, and have done that occasionally, but if you don't mind putting more money into the bet in the first place, then I'd customize the ticket a bit more with the least likely combinations bet for the minimum and the more likely combinations getting more. It doesn't make sense to me to spread too much just to try to hit it, and yes there are times when I had all three winners of HUGE pick 3s on my ticket and didn't hit it, but the probabilities are with me and I can live with that (although I'll whine about it when it happens, lol).

[arno]

When I am playing tracks with rolling pick threes I look to see what races have either a poor favorite and/or not an odds on favorite.

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.

You would be surprised how the first race price influences the pick 3 price.

A sequence of 20/1, 5/1, and 2/1 will pay more than the sequence 2/1, 5/1, and 20/1.

So I am always top heavy in the first leg.

You will see me play 6 horses in first leg, 3 horses in 2nd leg, and 2 horses in 3rd leg much more often than 3 horses in first leg, 3 in 2nd leg and four in third leg even though they both cost $36 for a dollar.

[CBedo]

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.I have more of a "crush it" mentality when I find one of these. If I find bad favorite combined with a price horse or two I really like, I'll play ALL the pick 3s & doubles around it to try to make a score.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

When I am playing tracks with rolling pick threes I look to see what races have either a poor favorite and/or not an odds on favorite.

That race begins my pick 3 sequence.
I am always looking for the price in the first leg.

You would be surprised how the first race price influences the pick 3 price.

A sequence of 20/1, 5/1, and 2/1 will pay more than the sequence 2/1, 5/1, and 20/1.

So I am always top heavy in the first leg.

You will see me play 6 horses in first leg, 3 horses in 2nd leg, and 2 horses in 3rd leg much more often than 3 horses in first leg, 3 in 2nd leg and four in third leg even though they both cost $36 for a dollar.

I have to say thats part of the reason I like to throw 5 or 6 in the first leg, because if you can get a bomb in the first, you almost always get nice payouts..favorite wins the first leg, even with a price in the middle or on the end, you usually will be dissapointed.. ;)

[erikeepper]

Is it possible in USA to see what the P3/P4 is going to return IN ADVANCE?

[Uncle Salty]

Only before the last leg is run.

[erikeepper]

Ok, so we actually have something better here in Skandinavia.

We can check out in advance how much different kind of combinations are going to return! And if you are using your own prob.estimates, you can only play the overlays. I am actually really suprised that it is not possible there.

but I am suprised a lot of things, like why the minimum is $2 for pick six which is really difficult game but then a lot easier P4 has smaller minimums?

[1st time lasix]

always check the takepouts at various racks with pic threes,,,,they vary widely . never play chalk in race one of a three.....if you have to include-pass

[JohnGalt1]

With the $.50 minimums instead of the 3x1x1, 1x3x1, and 1x1x3 tickets, I'll do 3x3x3 for $13.50 and a ticket with my prime bets, say 1x2x1 for $.50 or a dollar--cost one or two dollars.

In the three ticket bets, if all your B horses win, you get nothing. In my way, at least I'd win the the pick three on my $13.50 ticket. If my A horses win I'll win for either $1 or $1.50.

In pick 3's and 4's I put every horse that has a good chance to win on a ticket. If I need 4x6x2x5 in a pick 4 I won't play. But say the ticket is 2x6x1x3, I'll play if it includes horses with high enough odds. Ticket two might be my win bets 1x6x1x2, (the second leg a chaos race.) Cost $18 for ticket one and $6 for ticket two.

[Qstick333]

I apologize for such a late response. A 2 year old and pregnant wife took up a bit f time this week :)

I thoroughly enjoyed reading the responses and am starting to incorporate the different strategies into making a concerted effort of playing the P3 and P4's. I did manage to hit a $102/p3 at:) CT tonight...which I had 2x due to a more efficient strategy mentioned in this thread.

Thanks again and I am grateful for the help,

Zach

[CBedo]

I apologize for such a late response. A 2 year old and pregnant wife took up a bit f time this week :)

I thoroughly enjoyed reading the responses and am starting to incorporate the different strategies into making a concerted effort of playing the P3 and P4's. I did manage to hit a $102/p3 at:) CT tonight...which I had 2x due to a more efficient strategy mentioned in this thread.

Thanks again and I am grateful for the help,

ZachCongrats! Keep us posted on what you learn as you try some of these new strategies. Love to hear what you think works and doesn't work for you (and why).

[Qstick333]

Congrats! Keep us posted on what you learn as you try some of these new strategies. Love to hear what you think works and doesn't work for you (and why).

Will do for sure. I'll obviously need more of a sample to get a real clue of what is working or not. 2 obvious benefits right off the top.

1. The ability to invest the same amount and have the opportunity to have multiple tickets. This paid off tonight and I would not have had multiples without a change of thought.

2. A little more attention is paid in handicapping, which cannot be a bad thing. Forcing myself to really find a key horse in each race, if one exists, has me paying a bit more attention which is a good wake up call. Sometimes, when things become routine, the mental lapses kick in. This is a nice way to really zero in my focus.

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? I am making the transition since it is much harder for me to bet in real time, but I would still prefer to play the proper way when the opportunity presents itself.

Thanks again,

Zach

[JohnGalt1]

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? Thanks again,

Zach[/QUOTE]


No, I play it out. If the horse(s) is who I think will win when I made my ticket, that's who I stick with. If I lose that bet, another playable exotic is coming up.

Some play so much "insurance" bets or play too many combinations, when they win they barely break even.

Congrats on your CT hit.

[CBedo]

Will do for sure. I'll obviously need more of a sample to get a real clue of what is working or not. 2 obvious benefits right off the top.

1. The ability to invest the same amount and have the opportunity to have multiple tickets. This paid off tonight and I would not have had multiples without a change of thought.

2. A little more attention is paid in handicapping, which cannot be a bad thing. Forcing myself to really find a key horse in each race, if one exists, has me paying a bit more attention which is a good wake up call. Sometimes, when things become routine, the mental lapses kick in. This is a nice way to really zero in my focus.

One additional question. Once it gets down to the final leg and you have a live ticket do you ever hedge the pick3 ticket cost with additional wagers or just let it play out? I am making the transition since it is much harder for me to bet in real time, but I would still prefer to play the proper way when the opportunity presents itself.

Thanks again,

ZachYour second point is a great one. Having to think about structuring tickets instead of caveman 3x3x3 should hopefully have a positive impact on your handicapping. I know for sure, it keeps me from spending 27 or more on a ticket that returns 8.00 when all low priced horses come in.


As far as your question, different people do different things. For me, as usual, the answer is "it depends," lol. In most normal pick 3 circumstances, I trust my handicapping and let it ride, but I also am not against insurance if used wisely. I think about it like any insurance a business would buy. In general, it lowers your overall returns, but it smooths out some volatility, and because of that quality, it could allow you to bet larger amounts and grow your bankroll faster.

In a more concrete explanation, there are a couple times I use it more often than not. 1) If I alive for a HUGE payoff, and there is a horse or two that I struggled with leaving off my ticket. 2) Sometimes I get to the last leg and it's a straight maiden race, and someone is taking more money than I would have expected, especially a first time starter. In my opinion, you don't want to take insurance just so you can cash a ticket. I think most of us at times, slide into wanting to cash tickets and hit winners, instead of finding value, which should always be the focus.

How I take insurance is different in different circumstances as well. Sometimes it's a straight win bet. Sometimes if the horses in my third leg are good odds horses, I might use them underneath in exactas and/or trifectas. When there are rolling pick 3s and doubles, I might also structure an insurance ticket starting with the last leg (I don't do this very often) that I'm alive in.

[The Judge]

can't post it now I would have to find it then re-read it then have time to post it. I posted it before so maybe it can be located and re- posted. One of the figures was put down wrong so the post correcting it would also have to be posted. But the error was pretty obvious so maybe not.

It actually gave the amount of the payout's when combined with horses at certain odds at Golden Gate Fields. So some pic 3's weren't worth betting even if you won because the payout would be to low.

This knowledge was combined with the level you made a horse regarding of odds
level 1 level 2 level 3. This was then combined with certain Golden Rules to decide the probable payoff based on the ticket's you want to bet. Some warrant no bet some warrant more $ then an other ticket.

This was done in the 80's when the pic 3 was 6, 7 and 8th race only.

Maybe someone can find the old post I couldn't the name Ron Cox should be in there somewhere.

[point given]

Read Steve Crists blog at DRF to see how he plays multi race wagers and how he takes out , ' insanity insurance " on his p6 plays when live to the last race. last week he had $2880 into a p6 and was live for a 9300 and 24000 payouts so he made win bets on the 3 horses he didnot have which would cover the bets he had into it. He won the 9300 but i don't know how much the insurance cost. Today, Sunday he was live to the 6 and 9 in the p6 at Saratoga paying 9k and 11k and came up a neck short and took out insurance which didnot workout for him either .

I take out insurance when i feel exposed to a horse or two and try to recoup the cost of the bets. Though i use DD,exactas etc instead of win bets. I pay attention to willpays on the tote to see where the $ is going for the last 2 legs of the sequence as most do. Good luck.

[Sinner369]

Ron Cox's "Triple Method" (pic-3)

He starts with 3 Golden Rules.

#1 Never Play Three "A" Horses.
#2 Any Ticket That Includes A Level Two or Three Horse, Must Contain A "C" Horse ,or Three "B" Horses.
#3 Any Ticket Must Contain At Least One Level One Horse.

An "A" Horse is any horse with odds of 5/2 or lower "B" Horse is any horse with odds of 3/1 to 6/1 , "C" horse is any horse with odds of 7/1 or higher.

Designing Your Tickets Rank---Place selections by level 1,2,or3

Level one--- Your choice to win the race. May include multiple Horses if you can not seperarte them.

Level two---Your second level of contenders if you are not totally convinced one of your level one horses will win

Level three--- Horses with an outside chance. Have some attribute which prevents them from being total eliminations. Example

Race 6
3 A level one

Race 7
6 A /4 A/2 B / 7 C (Only 6 is a level one horse)

Race 8
2 A/ 4 B like the same

Level One Tickets

3A 6A 2A No Play Rule #1 next ticket 3 A 6 A 4 B is a play . You just continue on designing your ticket and applying the rules

When you find tickets that contain level of horses that you like the same you should bet more on the tickets that pay the most.

A couple examples of a level Two Tickets

3/4/2(AAA) rule one no play, 3/4/4 (AAB)No Play Rule 2, 3/2/2 (AAB)No play rule 2, 3/2/4/(ABB) No play rule 2,3/7/2 (AAC) Play 3/7/4(ABC) Play.

This was based on 139 Pic 3 in Nor-Cal and the payouts this was done in the early 90's or late 80's.

AAA 6X---$60
BBB 7X---$460
CCC 2X---$87
AAB 22X--$87
AAC 18X--$258
BBA 20X--$167
BBC 17X--$1,090
CCA 4X---$1,033
CCB 5X---$5,112
ABC 27X--$867

Conclusions AAA seldom occurs and pays nothing when it does
When two AA horsrs come in C comes in with them nearly as of the as a B horse and pays 3x as much

When two B horses come ;in C come is with them nearly as often as A and pays 5x as much
The pic 3 only average over $200 when a C horse is involved or 3 B horses

Enjoy, Sinner

[The Judge]

With one major correction 3 C horses C-C-C occurred 2 times paid
$24,000 and $5,396.

The idea is that you now have an idea as to how much a pic 3 will pay and you can put more money on the tickets you like the most that should pay the most.

So it gives you a better handle on risk and potential reward (overlays).

This was done at a time when there were no rolling pic 3's nor trifecta's so I think the pic 3 pools might be smaller now. This method would have to be researched to see if it is still viable and I would suppose it could be computerized.

Example of a Ticket

Race 6 Race 7 Race8

3A 6A 2A
4A 4B
2B
7C

Level One Tickets
3A 3A
6A No Play Rule 1 6A =$87.00
2A 4B

Level Two Tickets

(AAA) (AAB) $258 (AAB) $867
3 3 3
4 n/p rule1,2 4 n/p 2 n/p
2 4 rule2 2 rule2
(AAB)
3 3 3
2 n/p rule2 7 7
4 2 4

"Since all of these tickets contain two level one horses and one level two , you like them equally and should bet more on those tickets paying more."

There are a total of eight tickets and only three of them are playable. Even if correct only 37% chance of winning, so according to Ron he would not invest a large amount on this day.

[The Judge]

Can't get the numbers to line up correctly.

Race 6 like only one horse #3 A
race 7 have 4 horses #6A,is level 1 and 3horses are level 2, 4A, 2B, 7C, race 8 you have 2 level 1 horses 2A 4B. There are no level 3 horses.

Level One ticket
(AAA) 3,4,2, no play rule 1, next ticket 3A,6A,4B can play these are all level 1 horses and you have a B horse (3-1 to 6-1) expected payout $87.00.

Level Two Ticket 3,4,2 (AAA) no play rule next ticket 3,4,4 (AAB) no play rule 2, next ticket (AAB) 3,2,2 no play rule 2. Next ticket (ABB) 3,2,4 no play rule 2
next ticket (AAC $258) 3,7,2 paly, next ticket (ABC $867) 3,7,4 play.

When you get level 3 horses you just continue to make tickets.

[Sinner369]

What I like to see is Rules (Guidelines is a better word) on Tickets to avoid because of the low payoffs.

Especially for the Pick 4........for example AAAA is definely one to avoid because of the low payoff and also low percentage of hit rate.........assuming A is the chalk horses.

How many other Pick 4 tickets to avoid.................???

[Sinner369]

Can't get the numbers to line up correctly.

Race 6 like only one horse #3 A
race 7 have 4 horses #6A,is level 1 and 3horses are level 2, 4A, 2B, 7C, race 8 you have 2 level 1 horses 2A 4B. There are no level 3 horses.

Level One ticket
(AAA) 3,4,2, no play rule 1, next ticket 3A,6A,4B can play these are all level 1 horses and you have a B horse (3-1 to 6-1) expected payout $87.00.

Level Two Ticket 3,4,2 (AAA) no play rule next ticket 3,4,4 (AAB) no play rule 2, next ticket (AAB) 3,2,2 no play rule 2. Next ticket (ABB) 3,2,4 no play rule 2
next ticket (AAC $258) 3,7,2 paly, next ticket (ABC $867) 3,7,4 play.

When you get level 3 horses you just continue to make tickets.

Did not look closely, but for Level One Ticket = 3A, 6A, 4B = should this not be a no play rule.......... AAB.....pay out $87........???

[The Judge]

that ticket is a play, the payout is $87. I could have been clearer.

[lamboguy]

the best way to structure a pick 3 ticket is to pick only one horse in the first leg, only one horse in the second leg, and only one horse in the third leg, for pick 4 tickets do exactly the same thing as for the pick 3 but pick only one horse for leg 4. if you have the need to play more horses in those sequences you should not play the pick 3 or 4 to begin with. just wait until you find a sequence at a later date that you can find 3 or 4 winners in a row.

[Sinner369]

that ticket is a play, the payout is $87. I could have been clearer.


"Level Two Ticket 3,4,2 (AAA) no play rule, next ticket 3,4,4 (AAB) no play rule 2,"

What I am saying is according to the Ron Cox Method AAB is a no play.....If I am confused........please enlighten me?

[The Judge]

3A 6A 4B (AAB) is a play because they are all level 1 horses so they violate none of the rules.
3A 4A 4B (AAB) is a NO Play because 4A in a level 2 horse and violates rule2

3A 4A 2A (AAA) the 4A is low odds 5/2 or lower and is a level 2 horse so this violates rule 1 and 2 No play.

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I like to hedge when I am in a spot to make a large sum on the 3rd leg. In other words lets say you have invested 27 bucks in the pick 3..you have 3 live and they are all paying over 300 bucks..do you run with it..or do something like this?? lets say you have the 1,2,and 4 for your pick3..play */124 in the exacta...Ive had situations where ive run 12 and hit both.. and get a nice healthy exacta on top of it, or if you get nosed for your pick 3, you can make your money back or make alittle profit without spending too much money..just a theory...I always power tool and see if this is a reasonable proposition close to post time..Sometimes i might just add a horse to wheel on top as well..Depending on the odds...My thoughts are always on making money in the end..

[Sinner369]

3A 6A 4B (AAB) is a play because they are all level 1 horses so they violate none of the rules.
3A 4A 4B (AAB) is a NO Play because 4A in a level 2 horse and violates rule2

3A 4A 2A (AAA) the 4A is low odds 5/2 or lower and is a level 2 horse so this violates rule 1 and 2 No play.

3A 6A 4B (AAB).........violates Rule #2 = Any Ticket that includes a Level Two or Three Horse must contain a "C" Horse, or Three "B" Horses.

B is a Level Two horse.........so NO PLAY. Because there is no C horse nor three B Horses.

Must be a Typo error in the Ron Cox Method that I copied because the statement "Next ticket 3A 6A 4B is NOT a play".

[erikeepper]

the best way to structure a pick 3 ticket is to pick only one horse in the first leg, only one horse in the second leg, and only one horse in the third leg, for pick 4 tickets do exactly the same thing as for the pick 3 but pick only one horse for leg 4. if you have the need to play more horses in those sequences you should not play the pick 3 or 4 to begin with. just wait until you find a sequence at a later date that you can find 3 or 4 winners in a row.

Sometimes this works. Yesterday I did P4 with one horse per race. For every €1 I invested, I got €330 back :)

Two favorites and two suprises.

[lamboguy]

Sometimes this works. Yesterday I did P4 with one horse per race. For every €1 I invested, I got €330 back :)

Two favorites and two suprises.
good for you, that is how you give yourself a chance

[Tic-Tac]

Me i just go deep in the first race find a single and go deep in other leg

5*1*5 example

[Sinner369]

Remember Guys.........This Ron Cox Method is just a Guideline for the Pick 3 there are always exceptions and conditions that do not necessarily follow convention.......this is Horse Racing, anything can (and will happen).

The only "Absolute" is one should avoid betting Pick 3s; that are all favorites (AAA).................!!!

[The Judge]

this was done along time ago when the pic3 pools were the biggest pools (excluding pic 6 carryovers). It was done at Northern California tracks.

Who knows what 3 AAA (low odds ) horses would pay today at a mid-west track or with Rolling pic 3's ,you would need help or a computer to put the tickets together. The work has to be done anew. How much will a pic 3 pay today when ABC horses come in, A(5/2 or lower) B( 3/1to 6/1) (C 7/1 or higher)

I just think this is a good method that makes an attempt at betting correctly. Knowing what the expected payout is before you make your bet and betting more money on overlays/ high price payouts. It makes no sense to bet more on a payout you like that will pay $87 then bet less or the same amount on a combination that you like equally as well that will pay $250. More money should be on the $250 ticket.

We don't want to lose so we box put equal money on all the horses.

[erikeepper]

good for you, that is how you give yourself a chance

I ALWAYS play P4 very narrow and just increase the stake but one horse per race is still narrow even for me :) I would guess P3 (game we dont even have here) one horse per race is fine. Games like P7 I play totally different style.

Won near 5-figures from the P4 btw.