edoardopalomo
11-19-2003, 08:39 AM
Sorry for my english, I’ll try to do my best.
Hi, my name is Alberto, I’m from Milan, Italy, and I’m here once more to ask something.
I hope one day I’ll give you the favour back.
I’m usually betting on italian races and I know that I can “study” the card, I can watch and rewacht the races, I can know what the “professional” are betting, so there are many factors and many things to know, like you usauly analyse in your thread , I’m doing the same in italy writing on some forum for example #1 A real Gem it will be wire to wire cause there’s no real pace in this race etcc….
About one year ago I’ve started to bet on american races using an english betting exchange (I don’t wanna do any advertising) cause I saw that there was some very interesting difference beetwen the america Tote odds and my betting exchange odds (this is what i call a value bet, when you bet on 4/5 Tote odds favourite and you take it at 8/5).
But, see that I don’t know anything about american races, I’ve tried to find a method, I’ve starded buyng and studing the card (but as you can imagine is not enough), there are too many factors like pace, speed, trainer, jockey and anything else that I usually know on italian races who are very hard to get on others country races.
Then I’ve decided to buy expert selections on www.equibase.com or www.trackexperts.com but as any normal person can understand it wasn’t a smart thing.
So I’ve tried to take all the free selctions of the paying site but at the end I was betting on a 3/1 Morning Line horse taking 4/5 , just cause a lot of “expert” was sayng that it was a clear favourite, but everybody was doing the same so it wasn’t a value bet.
So, what I’m asking is: Is there anybody who can say me some “Real favourite”?
I mean I’ve seen Suff “tipping” longshot horses, and somethimes he says pass cause the fav in here are really tough to beat, and Sal saying “a claer favourite”….
What I mean is, imagine me betting on a 6/5 morning line fav, betting on him at one minute to post at 4/5 and at the end of the race he is seventh of seven with a final odds of 8/5 just cause he wasn’t a “real favourite”, I mean every day in Italy I can see at least 5 horses with a wrong Morning line. I can see a fav 6/5 and I know that he’s too strong for the field and his real odds is 2/5 and I’m “sure he’s going to win, at the same time I can see a 4/1 horse and I know it was very good in the last races, he loves distance and surface etccc… he worked well, so his real odds it will be 3/2 and probably he’s going to run very well.
Conclusion:
Please, please, please could you open a thread as “real favourite” where everybody is going to post one, two or more horses that respect the above criterias….
Example
Race 1 Acqueduct #3 Once more M/L 7/5 comment: clear favourite 1/2
Race 4 Churchill #10 Big Blue M/L 6/5 comment: can’t lose 2/5
This thread it will be an important help for me and maybe a good summary for who likes to play exotics.
I’m sure you can help me, and if you like I can say you where I’ve placed my bet and at wich price maybe you will find it interesting.
Thank you very much
Alberto
Hi, my name is Alberto, I’m from Milan, Italy, and I’m here once more to ask something.
I hope one day I’ll give you the favour back.
I’m usually betting on italian races and I know that I can “study” the card, I can watch and rewacht the races, I can know what the “professional” are betting, so there are many factors and many things to know, like you usauly analyse in your thread , I’m doing the same in italy writing on some forum for example #1 A real Gem it will be wire to wire cause there’s no real pace in this race etcc….
About one year ago I’ve started to bet on american races using an english betting exchange (I don’t wanna do any advertising) cause I saw that there was some very interesting difference beetwen the america Tote odds and my betting exchange odds (this is what i call a value bet, when you bet on 4/5 Tote odds favourite and you take it at 8/5).
But, see that I don’t know anything about american races, I’ve tried to find a method, I’ve starded buyng and studing the card (but as you can imagine is not enough), there are too many factors like pace, speed, trainer, jockey and anything else that I usually know on italian races who are very hard to get on others country races.
Then I’ve decided to buy expert selections on www.equibase.com or www.trackexperts.com but as any normal person can understand it wasn’t a smart thing.
So I’ve tried to take all the free selctions of the paying site but at the end I was betting on a 3/1 Morning Line horse taking 4/5 , just cause a lot of “expert” was sayng that it was a clear favourite, but everybody was doing the same so it wasn’t a value bet.
So, what I’m asking is: Is there anybody who can say me some “Real favourite”?
I mean I’ve seen Suff “tipping” longshot horses, and somethimes he says pass cause the fav in here are really tough to beat, and Sal saying “a claer favourite”….
What I mean is, imagine me betting on a 6/5 morning line fav, betting on him at one minute to post at 4/5 and at the end of the race he is seventh of seven with a final odds of 8/5 just cause he wasn’t a “real favourite”, I mean every day in Italy I can see at least 5 horses with a wrong Morning line. I can see a fav 6/5 and I know that he’s too strong for the field and his real odds is 2/5 and I’m “sure he’s going to win, at the same time I can see a 4/1 horse and I know it was very good in the last races, he loves distance and surface etccc… he worked well, so his real odds it will be 3/2 and probably he’s going to run very well.
Conclusion:
Please, please, please could you open a thread as “real favourite” where everybody is going to post one, two or more horses that respect the above criterias….
Example
Race 1 Acqueduct #3 Once more M/L 7/5 comment: clear favourite 1/2
Race 4 Churchill #10 Big Blue M/L 6/5 comment: can’t lose 2/5
This thread it will be an important help for me and maybe a good summary for who likes to play exotics.
I’m sure you can help me, and if you like I can say you where I’ve placed my bet and at wich price maybe you will find it interesting.
Thank you very much
Alberto