Coming Back in 5 days to race??

[sq764]

In looking at the pp's for Sam Houston tomorrow night, one catches my eye in the 4th (#6 Empire Builder)...

What I cannot figure is that he raced 5 days ago..

He is 9/15 in the money, very consistent, fair jock, fair trainer, yet he is jumping up from $5k to $10K and that 5 days off..

What to make of the intentions or thinking, I am not sure...

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by sq764
In looking at the pp's for Sam Houston tomorrow night, one catches my eye in the 4th (#6 Empire Builder)...

What I cannot figure is that he raced 5 days ago..

He is 9/15 in the money, very consistent, fair jock, fair trainer, yet he is jumping up from $5k to $10K and that 5 days off..

What to make of the intentions or thinking, I am not sure...

is the race short horses? If so...trainer may have been pressured into starting a horse. I have looked at a couple of cards down there and they are short horses......big time.

Purple: where are you?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Looks like $10,000 is normal. Small triner just thinks the horse had a very easy last race. 12-1 iis no big thing. I pass for win, probably bet to show if trainer wins 10%!

[JustRalph]

This is how my computer program see's the race (ES ver 4.0)
This simulation is run without any tweaking and using multi-pacelines option. I haven't even looked at the card. normally I would be tweaking numbers and pacelines.......but this is the raw sim run. Looks like he could be in the hunt with this level. when running these sims I would normally look hard at the 8 horse because he is 3.5-1 and running behind some other horses. He looks pretty strong in here based on a cursory look. Like I said...no tweaks. FYI

5 Kingsport(S 3)[4.00] 0.0
3 Vern's Boy(E 5)[12.00] 1.1 back of winner
1 Little Brick Lane(E/P 5)[6.00] 1.1 back of winner
6 Empire Builder(E/P 6)[12.00] 2.1 back of winner
8 Racey Leo(E/P 8)[3.50] 5.3 back of winner
7 Innocent Gent(E/P 6)[2.50] 8.0 back of winner
9 Connolly(E/P 0)[8.00] 8.0 back of winner
4 Devil Me Care(P 2)[12.00] 9.1 back of winner
2 Corsario Tom(P 4)[8.00] 15 back of winner

[Storm Cadet]

Ralph,

Why would you look for the 8 when the sim (without tweaking) shows he'd run out of the money...why not look at the 4-1 sim favorite?

You say he looks strong? How...I'm still relatively new to ES (2 months)...

SC

[Valuist]

I would say check the trainer's stats for back quick. It could be a very positive sign. We've had the "bounce" shoved down our throats so much sometimes we forget that fit horses win the majority of races.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
Ralph,

Why would you look for the 8 when the sim (without tweaking) shows he'd run out of the money...why not look at the 4-1 sim favorite?

You say he looks strong? How...I'm still relatively new to ES (2 months)...

SC

The sim shows 4-1 fav in his logical place (top) but whenever I see a horse that is the ML favorite or near it, and the sim shows him below others, I start looking for why? I quickly glanced at the pp's for everybody and realized that I think he looks pretty strong for this class, and he belongs (the ML is not so out of whack) Now I would normally start looking for why the sim placed him there.....but as I said.....no tweaking.....it was just a cursory look.

[sq764]

Do you think some of it is related to poor morning lines?

I have started to notice the quality of morning lines are horrendous at most tracks.. (Even worse for us harness guys)

They person at Yonkers just makes 6 horses between 2/1 and 3/1 and the other 2 50/1..

[Storm Cadet]

Ralph, using the sim the two best ML favs came in at 5th and 6th place. The 4-1 shot was only the third best and he won the sim. Why not play him?

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
Ralph, using the sim the two best ML favs came in at 5th and 6th place. The 4-1 shot was only the third best and he won the sim. Why not play him?

I agree, he would be on some tickets......maybe even a win/pl/show bet if the odds are right. I was speaking more to how to interpret the sim, and work from there. I agree with you totally. I know that many people use ES differently than I do, and this is the kind of discussion that I like when it comes to using ES. I don't play HOU anymore, but I might pay attention to this one tonight. since we went this far in talking about it.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by sq764
Do you think some of it is related to poor morning lines?

I have started to notice the quality of morning lines are horrendous at most tracks.. (Even worse for us harness guys)

They person at Yonkers just makes 6 horses between 2/1 and 3/1 and the other 2 50/1..

That is the reason I look at why the horse is finishing below the others. It depends on the track etc. Sometimes they are pretty good and others I think are off the map. Then there are those tracks where I think the ML maker knows something we don't or something we would be aware of if we played a track more often. It is a tough call in some places.

[lsbets]

I have this horse in my top 4 for the race:

8-1-6-3

But, the trainer is probably the worst trainer in Texas. I guess anyone can win a race eventually, but I have seen this guy claim horses and then destroy them. This makes it a tough call- I've never seen this guy make a good decision, but the horse fits here.

[sq764]

Worst trainer in Texas??

I mean he's no Baffert, but he has 15 starts, 2 wins and 3 seconds..
I would call that respectable..

[Shacopate]

This is interesting.

Not just because the race comes up in about 10 minutes, but also because I'm looking hard at Equisim.

Is it just my computer? Or are those running lines generated by the demo as hard to read on the actual program?

[shanta]

just curious. is this horse sq is talking about coming back in 5 days a filly?????? fillies a lot of times need a little extra time to recover after a race just curious. i cant see the pps

richie

[lsbets]

SQ764,

I base this on personal experience. I base this on what the trainers at Lonestar have told me. No one will claim off of him - they don't want a horse after he's had it. I've seen him claim horses and ruin them - running them too tough and too often. Nothing found in the form, but what the guys on the backside say. There are a few trainers around here who speak there mind and are pretty good at assessing others. I trust them and what they say. Thats where I'm coming from when I say worst in Texas. When I see one of his horses, I usually run the other way. I hope I'm wrong about him tonight, because I used the horse in an exacta, but that is my feelings about the guy.

You know me by now, I say what I think.

[Shacopate]

Shanta,

Nope, its a gelding.

And the current odds on the 8 is 10-1.

[shanta]

thanx shacopate

[sq764]

well we are at post time and the tote reads:

1- 7/1
2 - 30/1
3 - 5/2
4 - 7/1
5 - 2/1
6 - 12/1
7 - 8/1
8 - 6/1
9 - 13/1

And for the record.. I boxed a 3,6,7 exacta...

[lsbets]

sq

you 7 and my 1 - nice exacta

[Whitehos]

THANK GOD I bet the race before I saw this thread.

I (as I rarely do) had the winner. It was due to an angle of a shipper from LaD doing well at Houston and a top jock. This is the worst card Houston has ever had. Has to be Delta taking the better horses.

[Shacopate]

The 8 did pay 6.60 to show, covering an Xtb bet.

Kendall would be proud.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Whitehos
THANK GOD I bet the race before I saw this thread.

I (as I rarely do) had the winner. It was due to an angle of a shipper from LaD doing well at Houston and a top jock. This is the worst card Houston has ever had. Has to be Delta taking the better horses.

Whitehos........I liked that angle but didn't play it because of the form. woulda, coulda, shoulda...........I had everything else under it, but they don't pay if you don't get the top one!

the post position sunk the 8. He ran hard and wide into the first turn....it made a difference........I forgot about the post position and the quick turn at houston, at that distance............. it benefitted the 1 horse for the same reasons

The winner proved my mini theory though.....he was 5/2 on the ML and was shown under the others on the sim. Just like the 8...... seems like the ML at houston is ok tonight. The card does suck.........that's why I don't play HOU anymore. But after this thread I dropped in for that one race.

[Whitehos]

I found SHRP by accident several years ago and somehow con tinue to show a positive ROI. If for no other reason Purple Power who works there and maybe one of a kind when it comes to horse knowledge. is a reason to follow their program. And as I said that another very knowledgable horse person on this board came to mind, Observer. Her area of expertise is more in the area of history. And she has the resources.

[sq764]

I was impressed to see so much input on 1 race!!

We should do this every night! Have 1,2 or 3 races where we all focus on.. \

Just a thought.

[kenwoodallpromos]

"I would probably bet to show if the trainer was 10% wins" You say the trainer is currently 2 for 15 or 13.3%! Excellent observing on your part of the 5 day turn around!! It would take a REAL stupid trainer to do that unless he knerw the horse was still not too tired!!! Congratulations!!