Twinspires users only- Profit Line

[porchy44]

Does anyone pay attention to "Profit Line" as a handicapping tool.
To summarize to someone who is not familiar with "profit Line, Twinspires provides this tool that establishes a daily "Profit Line odds" of all thoroughbred horses at all tracks. The idea is to compare it to the "Live odds" of the horse.
If the live odds are higher than the "profit line odds", the live odds number turns red and you are supposed to have an "overlay".

Me personally I have found "Profit Line to have an OPPOSITE AFFECT. I mean
the horses that profit line determine to be the most underlayed (the live odds are much lower than profit line odds) have a better chance of winning.

[therussmeister]

Based on your your description of Profit Line, it is not supposed to pick horses that have the best chance of winning this race, but rather a method to get a better long term return on investment.

[Some_One]

Remember the overround on the profit line is probably 100%, with the actual tracks are around 120%, however it's surprising that the low prices then are the ones always overbet, they must give too much credit to longshots.

[EJXD2]

Hi, all,
ProfitLine is an added value item for users of TwinSpires, but it is available to all BRISnet.com users via the selections/analysis section of our handicapping products page (http://bit.ly/o8LQV4%20).

For those not familiar with it, I've uploaded a sample (http://bit.ly/nNmuCe) using tonight's card at Hoosier Park, so those interested in following along in real time can get a full sense of how it works.

The BRISnet.com product is slightly different than the TwinSpires interface because the former attempts to identify the most likely overlays while the latter lists odds for all horses.

The fourth race, for instance, is a field of ten, but only five horses have a profit line identified. Half the field adds up to 75%. The others are very likely underlays.

Also of note is that entries are given a profit line if coupled as well as fair odds if uncoupled (see second race).

For those who missed the link above, click here (http://bit.ly/nNmuCe) for a profit line analysis of the Tuesday night card at Hoosier Park.

[JeremyJet]

Based on your your description of Profit Line, it is not supposed to pick horses that have the best chance of winning this race, but rather a method to get a better long term return on investment.

You would think so, but the only thing they point to is that the top ranked ProfitLine horse wins at a 33% clip.

I assume these are computer generated probabilities.

[Elliott Sidewater]

Search for posts under my name, I did some research on Profit Line about 4 or 5 years ago and posted a summary of the results on this forum. As I recall, it was hand done research, with over 2000 plays. It was free back then for anyone with a BRISNET login, now it isn't.

[JeremyJet]

Search for posts under my name, I did some research on Profit Line about 4 or 5 years ago and posted a summary of the results on this forum. As I recall, it was hand done research, with over 2000 plays. It was free back then for anyone with a BRISNET login, now it isn't.

Interesting. You did a lot of work there.

Did you track how the individual probabilities performed over a period of time? For example, did their 2/1 shots actually win at a 33% clip?

[Elliott Sidewater]

Sorry, I didn't go into that much detail because the plays were recorded manually and then entered into a spreadsheet. It was time consuming work and my client was only interested in the bottom line; whether it was profitable or not for win and exacta betting. There is the practical matter of odds fluctuations, too. All of my research was done from the charts which had final odds - real world results might or might not suffer from having to bet before final odds are known, I simply don't know.

[Some_One]

I find it very unusual that the Profit Line agrees with every with the morning line maker on every race (could just be a fluke for the HOO sample posted), makes me believe that that the profit line is using factors like speed figures to determine the line which in the long run I don't think could show an advantage. Just my 2 cents.

[LottaKash]

I am not familiar with Profitline....

Who would use this ?....

Also, if you were a competent enough handicapper and pretty good at assessing at least fair value for your contenders, could this help you any, or just create and perhaps add a bit more chaos to your picture assessment of a particular race or situation as I refer to it.. ?...

best,

[Some_One]

Well of course if you believe your line to be 100% accurate, then you know which horses were +EV, of course the accuracy of the line is the million dollar question.

[EJXD2]

I find it very unusual that the Profit Line agrees with every with the morning line maker on every race (could just be a fluke for the HOO sample posted), makes me believe that that the profit line is using factors like speed figures to determine the line which in the long run I don't think could show an advantage. Just my 2 cents.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean. The profit line is different than the morning line in almost every instance on the Hoosier card.

But to your second point, yeah, the profit line bases its fair odds on speed ratings, prime power, and a host of other factors. And it is computerized. We don't have an army coming up with these lines for every race at every track in the country. :)

HOWEVER, there are some services that offer a human element to that, such as Bob Selvin's FairOdds Analysis (http://bit.ly/nFaKND), but he's strictly SoCal.

[porchy44]

I started this thread with "Twinspires users only" . Profit Line is FREE to Twinspires players.I knew BRIS sells Profit Line for a daily fee of $5.00 a track or $10.00 for all tracks.

I couldn't understand or believe someone would actually pay for it when it is free to Twinspires players.

Twinspires is free sign-up. There is no betting minimums to use free Profit Line on Twinspires.

[therussmeister]

I doubt Twin Spires serves customers in every state. Or even every state with horse racing.

[1GCFAN]

I try to use the profit line as a guidline when handicapping especially at tracks I don't follow. I find it very usefull.