Software

[crestridge]

Has anyone ever compared some of the "stock trading software", to the typical "horse racing" software? It seems to me, the sophistication, is very advanced, at least in the "visual" and "conceptual" elements of stock trading software. An example, is "Meta-Stock" software, (I don't own the software but have seen it operational) where one has a section for: (1) analyzing the various stocks, adding the various parameters needed for the search, then a (2)"expert" giving some tips on/advice concerning the analysis, (3) a way to go back as many years as possible to test if a positive ROI was possible with the various parameters applied. All this with a click of a few buttons, no need to "code", to know a language, etc. But what strikes me funny about most of the racing software is the lack of "visuals". It seems everything is just numbers, which works fine, but some people learn better with "pictures", visuals. I would encourage the horse racing developers to enhance the visual aspects of the data sets provided. Any one else a "visual" learner, besides me?

[CBedo]

I agree. Horse racing fans have "settled" for text based interfaces, I think mostly due to the fact that we are all used to the DRF style pps. I know that when I have introduced new people to racing, it is one of the things that makes no sense to them.

My team in the PAIHL contest used mostly visual interfaces. It was actually the main reason I entered a team in the contest. I wanted to test some of the tools I have been working on for myself to see what worked and didn't work for others visually.

[crestridge]

CBedo
I mainly brought this up for discussion because I've discovered "numbers" can form a visual pattern that "may" provide some degree of prediction, if properly presented in some "picture" form. For guys with strong math backgrounds, I suppose, these "numbers" stand out to them and they don"t need visual prompts.

Also when looking for different patterns (like maybe a entire year of paceline numbers, a visual view is quickly and easily analyzed) it produces instant analysis. My theory is, pattern recognition is the key to filtering your contender selection, hence saving time and possibly reducing the contender selection to two horses instead of four or five. Maybe developing visuals for many different pacelines; last, last two, last three, etc.

You know in stocks, there's the MACD, candlesticks, etc., maybe with some imagination, certain similar types could be adapted to thoroughbreds.

[CBedo]

CBedo
I mainly brought this up for discussion because I've discovered "numbers" can form a visual pattern that "may" provide some degree of prediction, if properly presented in some "picture" form. For guys with strong math backgrounds, I suppose, these "numbers" stand out to them and they don"t need visual prompts.

Also when looking for different patterns (like maybe a entire year of paceline numbers, a visual view is quickly and easily analyzed) it produces instant analysis. My theory is, pattern recognition is the key to filtering your contender selection, hence saving time and possibly reducing the contender selection to two horses instead of four or five. Maybe developing visuals for many different pacelines; last, last two, last three, etc.

You know in stocks, there's the MACD, candlesticks, etc., maybe with some imagination, certain similar types could be adapted to thoroughbreds.I agree completely, and maybe part of the reason is that I come from a Wall Street background.

One example of a visual that my teammates in the contest liked quite a bit (one was novice capper, one was veteran, but a drf guy) was a drf style listing of speed (or pace) figures that you could click on to convert to a graphical view of the horses races. The user had the option of displaying multiple horses, or the best or average from others in the race or even a par type number to compare the horse's performance. Also, if they wanted to compare contenders, it was easy to convert to a bar chart of all the horses (or contenders they chose) showing their last race, last good race, best 2 of 3, etc.

I think the possibilities are endless and a good graphical user interface should be flexible enough to let the user see what he wants to see, not what the developer thinks he should see.

[bcgreg]

Gordon Pine (Netcapper) uses bollinger bands on spot play performance.

Regards,
bcgreg

[Ted Craven]

I agree that a combination of graphical modes, colouring and other markups can combine to present data more impactfully than simply stacks of numbers, showing not only ranks, but gaps (differentials) and ranges of values. Here are a few excerpts from how we do it in RDSS (not, as yet, as user-definable as Cbedo describes, but not bad).

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/images/pa/sar0806-10np.png

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/images/pa/sar0806-10el.png

http://www.sartinmethodology.com/images/pa/sar0806-10seg.png

[pktruckdriver]

If I may , I use RDSS and love the color and pictures , and most of all the accuracy of it when used correctly, it is one awesome and eye popping software to use.

It makes capping fun and enjoyable for me, not sure about others but looking at the colors makes it so much easier to grasp for people like me, you see red and green, and you say ok let me look closer here.

Now as any software, you must input your own touch into some things like paceline selections and interpreting what you see and well that is the fun part, and this program is fun, and gives nice winners too, but I will say this I must look very hard to find them, but they are there , that I promise you.

I have seen staock market stuff with the different colored lines and graphs and things but never quite got the grasp of those things , then I lost my finacial way and never got to use them, oh well, life happens.

patrick

[openhorse]

Our software uses the industry standard reporting engine for the stock market - SAP Crystal Reports - and yet, it is fully dedicated to horse racing.

Use of this technology enables us to apply data mining principles to handicapping; using rapid-application development, we can prototype charts in minutes. Just like the IT pros in the stock market - using identical technology.

Candle
Here is a quick Hi-Lo-Open-Close candle chart applied to : 1 'on change of field' and '4 show values' .... pretty much meaningless when applied to this data set ... but the point is its ease of use and development.

http://openhorse.net/img/extern/candle.png

I have tried many times to think of how this chart type could be used over the years .... since there is no constant velocity to trigger anything, hmmmm. Thoughts ?


Unlimited chart support

As you can see, a platform with this kind of power has never been available to handicappers before.

http://openhorse.net/img/extern/SAP%20Enterprise%20Charts.png

PDF <attached> shows several bar graphs relating to payout by week day and race type for a given meet (in this example Del Mar)

The charts you see here represent just the tip of the iceberg. With a small investment in either your own copy of CR, or by hiring us to construct the report for you, all the power of modern data mining - is quite literally- at your fingertips.

[bob60566]

If you cannot interperet the results of the finished data.
That is key.:) :) :) :)

[crestridge]

I've developed my own wave forms with various numbers, and it's amazing to see different wave forms for different tracks. After a while, you learn certain wave forms won't do as well as other wave forms, etc. Of course there's always surprises; but a crude pattern has been forming. Some are even, others are decelerating, some accelerating, etc. But a kind of bias at times can be recognized, in these wave forms. It's kind of fun, actually! Of course these are very crude, developed with a simple template from Excel, and then pencil in the numbers!!

[Dick Schmidt]

Though the intellectual skill sets needed for success in both handicapping and trading are very similar, the markets are not. Racing is a series of one time, unique events that are never repeated. Stocks, commodities and currencies are more like the flow of a river, continuous with each moment influencing the ones that come after it.

Both are based entirely on historical analysis of data. You hope that what happened before will happen again. Sometimes it does, many times not. Even body language is based on past observations. This makes racing a tough game to beat, as each race must be dealt with on its own and has no influence on what comes after.

Naturally, racing software tends to be focused on the single event of a given race, and tries to predict the order of finish based on past observations. Investing is much more linear and uses a completely different type of charting. The closest you could get to this in racing is if you charted and graphed a race at every point around the track (say every six inches) and then got to bet on the second lap.

Dick

P.S. There is another really big reason trading software is more sophisticated. I recently attended a trading seminar that drew 350 people at $5,000 a head. People here gripe about software that costs $200. If you were a gifted programmer, which crowd would you write for?


If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you.

[Jeff P]

Though the intellectual skill sets needed for success in both handicapping and trading are very similar, the markets are not. Racing is a series of one time, unique events that are never repeated. Stocks, commodities and currencies are more like the flow of a river, continuous with each moment influencing the ones that come after it.

Both are based entirely on historical analysis of data. You hope that what happened before will happen again. Sometimes it does, many times not. Even body language is based on past observations. This makes racing a tough game to beat, as each race must be dealt with on its own and has no influence on what comes after.

Naturally, racing software tends to be focused on the single event of a given race, and tries to predict the order of finish based on past observations. Investing is much more linear and uses a completely different type of charting. The closest you could get to this in racing is if you charted and graphed a race at every point around the track (say every six inches) and then got to bet on the second lap.

Dick

P.S. There is another really big reason trading software is more sophisticated. I recently attended a trading seminar that drew 350 people at $5,000 a head. People here gripe about software that costs $200. If you were a gifted programmer, which crowd would you write for?That bolded part is sooo true. The level of interest in financial markets from the public at large is massive compared to racing.

Of course there's a reason for that.

Can you imagine what would happen to public interest in the NYSE if an organization like the TOC successfully lobbied our government and got laws enacted that set commissions for buying or selling 1000 shares of Apple at 23.68 percent?

This past weekend I had friends visiting from out of town. They were curious about what I do and quite naturally asked for a peek at the software. I spent maybe 5 minutes showing them how to run a sql queries through JCapper's Data Window to get a handle on track profile.

The first comment I heard was "Jeff, you know that horse racing is dead, right? Why in the world aren't you doing this for the stock market?"


-jp

.

[crestridge]

So the real question is why don't we make the transition from horse racing, like Dick has? Why don't we attempt to make the intellectual endeavor in financial markets? I know for myself, I've actually thought about this, and it seems I have some sort of crazy bias for these creatures, which I can't really explain, other than a kind of love affair, by which I can't seem to justify, time wise, effort wise (racing really is floundering), but when I compare racing to financials, I just can't seem to get excited about financials.

So I ask Dick, why did you brake away, why/how did you get "excited" about financials? They seem so, cold, lifeless, whereas, these thoroughbreds have life, color, they sweat, breath, and take our money!! Ha.

[Dick Schmidt]

Hi Crest,

"So I ask Dick, why did you brake away, why/how did you get "excited" about financials? They seem so, cold, lifeless, whereas, these thoroughbreds have life, color, they sweat, breath, and take our money!! Ha."

Well, I was never all that excited about horse racing. I was the guy who was working the next race while they were running. When I played online, I never bothered to watch the races, or even check the results. At the end of the day, I'd see if I made money and let it go at that.

Handicapping and trading are similar in that both demand intense concentration, good pattern recognition skills, historical analysis and some educated guesswork. Really, trading FOREX "feel" very like handicapping, it just pays a lot better. I'm up about $4700 today in a very ordinary day in the market. I find that provides enough excitement to keep me interested.

Dick

It's always darkest before dawn, so if you're going to steal your neighbor's newspaper, that's the time to do it.

[crestridge]

Dick

You are to be congratulated; believe me, if I thought I could do well in the stock market, Forex market, I'd be right there. But like anything, it took a lot dedication, sweat, blood, tears to do what you're doing today! It didn't come overnight, I'm sure.

However, your view of business is correct; there shouldn't be emotion involved in the decision making process to make money. The evidence is "King"!!

[DeltaLover]

A couple of screen shots showing some UI elements I use for my software:

http://fls.gr/junk/coljak.jpg

http://fls.gr/junk/ran-against-each-other.jpg

[crestridge]

Jeff

I think you should follow Dick; you are very gifted obviously, and probably could make lots, lots...more money in Forex, etc. I think you know this to be true, so why don't you make the transition? Why don't you take the advice of your friends (which by the way, seem to be very astute)?!!

[crestridge]

Delta

Very nice!!

[openhorse]

Using charts definitely has its advantages.

Fig 1. Pace Chart
The data presented in the Recent Form table is identical to that displayed in the Pace chart underneath. Notice how much easier it is to visualize the contribution to the series. It shows up as a peak.

http://openhorse.net/img/extern/pace.png

Fig 2. Winning Form
Basic trends can be followed with regard to horses returning to form. (excerpt from Todays 7th at Del Mar)

http://openhorse.net/img/extern/trend.png


Further reading
Tufte, Edward. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information 2nd Ed. Graphics Press, 2001.

[JustRalph]

I find that the color helps me immensely. I started color coding some things in jcapper early on and it changed the way I read the HTML report

Every little bit helps

[crestridge]

Open

Your "stuff" looks very promising; love the color, the different ways to observe elements. Keep it up, give some of your picks, keep letting us know how much progress you're making--(ROI esp.)

[Jingle]

Ralph--maybe that's my problem, I'm colorblind. Seriously. Before I retired my wife had to pin my socks togeather to wear to work.

[Old Timer]

I hope you remembered to unpin those socks before taking off for work!