shrp pars

[foul]

Does anyone have shrp pars for 2002 and would be willing to share them? I'm in the process of developing 2003 shrp pars and am not quite sure what I am doing. I would appreciate any input on compiling and usage!! Thanks. foul

[kenwoodallpromos]

At the same time, track 4f middle dirt works for track variant!!

[cj]

I've listened for awhile kenwood, and I really don't see any validity to your theory. That said, I haven't tried it, so I am not going to say it doesn't work. In order for me to give something a try, it has to at least sound reasonable.

So, a few questions. What do you do when it rains after the track closes for works but before racing starts. Or halfway through the card. Better yet, I have lived in Cheyenne and Oklahoma City, two of the windiest cities in the US. In both of these places many times, it would be calm in the morning until around 11 am, then the wind starts, and I mean serious wind. How do you account for that. Another, what about tracks that run at night. They still work out during the morning. Are you trying to tell me workouts that took place as much as 15-17 hours earlier can tell you how fast the track is for tonight's 11th race?

I'm not trying to give you a hard time, I am seriously interested in how you answer these questions. Making a good track variant is one of the toughest parts of the handicapping equation, so I am willing to listen.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I usually do not bet extremes of tracks or weather conditions. I do keep researching things like changing conditions during the day. That is how today I picked at GGF 5 of 6 place or show, based on predicting a fast track and speed during most races and closers the last 2, when it began to rain. 15% profit. / Please do not ask me for future picks, as I already gave out the method!! / If you reject ideas without even testing, there is nothing more I can say!

[so.cal.fan]

Ken,
I sure don't know a thing about numbers, and I am not questioning your methods that work for YOU.
However......I can't believe this would work at Del Mar.
Del Mar is a weird main track, and for the past 30 years, everyone I have known to use morning workouts to try to judge the track's speed has failed to do so.
In fact......it's sort of a joke here.....follow clockers at Del Mar and you'll go broke.
Perhaps your method works better at some tracks than others?

[kenwoodallpromos]

I find pars useful for track comparisons for shippers. / I hit 6 winners in 7 races opening day at DM this year, and did well all the 1st week with track speed prediction as the track was very fast. Then the workout times got inconsistent and cheap speed was winning too much, so I stopped bettind DM. Since Calder and Saratoga were also unpredictable as to early speed winners, I did not bet for win the rest of the summer! The tracks were predictable as to track speed and obvious bias most days, but if tracks are too slow or too many individual races have too many horses with similar early speed or other running style and stamina similarities they are still too close to call and too riskky! / I have not found any system that can be used with every race because so many races are set up to be varied from the others as to class conditions, distance, starting "chutes", and made varied by natural weather conditions as to water retained on track. / You have to know what to do with the track speed info and how it relates to the track and jockeys as to pace, etc. At GGF, my home track,, it helps greatly to know the tenders' jockeys; riding styles and the horses' preferences for track conditions. Russell Baze is out for awhile so I know Warren is the only standout now on turf. I know who the gate boys are and if they are on longshot early speedsters. I knew a horse that is normally at the wire in turf would not be risking injury when it was not scratched in the rain this past week in the dirt, so I knew 1t (Russel Cave) would not win. It finished up the track and will will run back great on the turf again!! / With my knowledge of traxk speed and the weather I was able to pick for place and show all day, 3 of 4 place in short fields and 2 of 2 show for a very nice profit because when it began to rain and saw the final field in the last 3 races I could pick 2 closers to do well. / I am always learning from many resources about everything I need to know to better utilize systems that I know work. I am learning more all the time as to with which horses and races they work best so that the # of races that fit are increasing slightly, and the # of bad bets are decreasing. My ROI is always improving and I can play more races with my Track Speed Prediction Method, especially when a track is normal speed. / I have my Elimination Method I still use for place and show that works a lot more often, about 50% of all races in North America, and with that, increasing knowledge of connection tendencies help even more. / I am also in tjhe middle of reading Mike Helm's "A Breed Apart". Relates very nicely for my handicapping!!:cool: