Whitney Thread!

[PhantomOnTour]

Somebody had better start one....

#10 Apart seems to be a getting a lot of talk by a some media types, but i don't see him winning...too slow in my book.

#3 Morning Line and #7 Rail Trip are ultra consistent...right there almost every time. ML has some serious pace figs and may control this race.

#1 Flat Out has the big fig but now must duplicate that around two turns on another surface at a MUCH lower price than last.

#5 Tizway has a huge fig as well, but does he want 2 turns and 9f???

#6 Mission Impazible is running well this year but doesn't win much...seems like an overachiever that really isn't as good as the top older horses but fights it out every time anyway.

#2 Friend Or Foe has run very fast at times, but has had 3 tries in graded company (2 at Sar) and has come up short.

I think we will see half a dozen btw 4-1 and 8-1 when they run this thing.
What a challenge, and you should get a nice payday if you take down this tri or super.

Right now I am leaning to Morning Line:
> likes the Spa and the distance
> is the controlling pace, and speed/stalk has been king most of this meet
> speed figs are good enough also if the 113 Beyers aren't repeated
> savvy but slumping trainer has won this race a few times

Tough one...talk to me.

[cj]

I'm going with Flat Out. I don't think the last was a fluke, and he should get a nice setup today.

[OTM Al]

I'm going with Flat Out. I don't think the last was a fluke, and he should get a nice setup today.

Can't say I love him, but it seems to set up for him. I don't think the speed is going to get away with cheap fractions here.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm going with Flat Out. I don't think the last was a fluke, and he should get a nice setup today.
I hear ya'
He has worked very well since that big fig, so that will alleviate the bounce concerns for his supporters. If he brings that race again it is over.

He's on my ticket, but so is almost everyone else at this juncture. :D
Seriously though, I'm mainly a tri and 10 cent super player and cannot get by the ALL button for the bottom slot in this race.

[riskman]

The New York-bred FRIEND OR FOE looked good on June 5 when taking the Easy Goer S. by a head over RAIL TRIP. FOF has come up short in the past but maybe today will be the one that puts his name in lights against a field of some strong veterans.

[Some_One]

Tizway and ML here for me

[Tom]

:1:Flat Out looks for real.
:3:Morning Line might be ready run back to his good numbers at 9F.
:7:Rail Trip outside shot to improve

:4:Giant Oak going backwards - out
:5: Tizway - can't see him running back to that big number, especially around two turns - out

[gm10]

Morning Line. Will be my bet of the day if I can get 10/1.

[Tom]

Under card - American Lady in the Test.

[Some_One]

For the test Roman Treasure...but generally speaking, anything but Turbulent Descent, wouldn't consider her at 4-1

[PaceAdvantage]

Under card - American Lady in the Test.I think the :3: Roman Treasure represents the best value in the Test at 8-1. Call me crazy... :eek:

[Tom]

Well, I saw it, but I still cannot make the :6: even a contender, let alone bet her to win!

PA, your :3: killed my :2:! Grrrrr.:D

[PaceAdvantage]

I actually had TD as my third choice...shows you what we know Tom... :lol:

I'll take horses like Roman Treasure at 8-1 any day...onto the Whitney!

[Some_One]

Agree, I still also think TB winning at <evens was a minus EV result in the long run.

[dansan]

3-8-11

[Tom]

Friend or Foe has an interesting WO pattern - plus a really nice fig pattern. I think he will run a good number today.

[PhantomOnTour]

Before heading to work I will post my Whitney play.
By the way, I'm recording the race so I would appreciate it if no one posted the winner here or discussed the race until about midnight central time :lol:
Thx, knew y'all would understand :rolleyes:

TRI:
:1: :3:
:1: :3: :7: :10:
:1: :2: :3: :6: :7: :10:

And some small supers using the above numbers, but with ALL in the 4 hole.
Ofcourse I will repeat some of those 10cent combos with the lower odds horses.
Good luck.

[Relwob Owner]

I like the 8 at a price and will be using him with the 1, 6, 11. Good luck to all

[PaceAdvantage]

Man, this is a wide open race if Tizway can't get 9 panels. Even if he can get 9 panels it's still pretty wide open.

With that in mind, my value play of the race is :9: Rodman at 19-1

My picks and value line:

:5: Tizway (5-2)
:1: Flat Out (6-1)
:7: Rail Trip (8-1)
:9: Rodman (9-1)

As of now, I would bet both :5: & :9: as they are 4-1 and 19-1 respectively on the board with 9mtp.

[woodtoo]

Friend or Foe for me.

[Tee]

:6: Mission Impazible

:3: Morning Line

Slowish pace -chitty horses.

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, after making a killer move to the rail with Rodman, Prado is just killing me with this ride.

[Tom]

Before heading to work I will post my Whitney play.
By the way, I'm recording the race so I would appreciate it if no one posted the winner here or discussed the race until about midnight central time :lol:
Thx, knew y'all would understand :rolleyes:



TIZWAY didn't win! ;)

[PaceAdvantage]

Good thing Tizway was as good as that Met Mile number said he was...

Andy Serling made an excellent point on the NYRA feed about the majority of Tizway's losses at 9 panels, and that gave me more confidence to bet him along with Rodman.

4-1 was a steal on Tizway. I had him at 9-5 fair odds and 5-2 value odds.

And I don't know what the hell was happening to Rodman and Prado after Prado made an excellent move to secure the rail into the first turn.

[Robert Fischer]

not a bad race by the 1

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

I love how contentious these races look and at the wire they spread out like maiden claimers.

PS If anyone in the country is riding better than Maragh, please, tell me the name.


Some clown on the Thorograph board said a switch to Leczcano was a +. (not to mention Solis rode the horse the last 3 times)

[Dexter M]

PS If anyone in the country is riding better than Maragh, please, tell me the name.


john velazquez, javier castellano

[Robert Fischer]

PS If anyone in the country is riding better than Maragh, please, tell me the name.


Some clown on the Thorograph board said a switch to Leczcano was a +. (not to mention Solis rode the horse the last 3 times)....

As far as Maragh actually compared to other riders?...
Velazquez has pretty clearly been the leader at Saratoga. He has not ONLY run for the money, he has actually been a fairly complete rider, the other day he rode a 2yo to 4th in a claiming race- and that horse is now primed to run very well. He hasn't always showed that type of complete game, and a lot of money-riders are superficial, in the sense that if they don't have the best horse in the best setup... they don't contribute anything... really mature riding (it may not hurt when everything's going well, lets see if he keeps up the complete-game with some adversity...) Those are the kind of subtleties that you look for when handicapping jockeys.

The Whitney was Maragh's race to lose. He was basically a lock if Morning Line didn't run a huge race or if the pace itself wasn't BLAZING -- ML didn't really factor, the pace was pedestrian, and a perfect trip opened up. Maragh would have had to EPIC FAIL to lose that one.

He isn't running BAD though ... he was pretty weak last year @ toga. In the past a guy like Leparoux would have been WAYYY higher ranked than Maragh... but I think Maragh is in the same conversation... Maybe Lep is slumping or was over-rated... Maybe Lep is better with good horses, but maybe Maragh closes that gap with middle range longshots.

Velazquez Dominguez Castellano are in a class Maragh will never even take online :liar:... (ok that was corny) They are much better.


as far as Lezcano and Friend/foe ... looked like the horse had a lot to do with today's run. Didn't concentrate on that one or re-watch yet, but Lezcano seemed to have done a great job of putting him on early

[Some_One]

Looks like the stewards also love Maragh right now, don't know how he didn't get taken down in the last.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

No sooner do I post that , and Maragh wins the next race at 9/2, literally lifting the horse up in the final 1/8, and surviving a foul.

sorry, more wins do not equal riding better.

I figured Maragh out weeks ago. Even Andy has noticed.

The question was rhetorical.

[Robert Fischer]

The question was rhetorical.

we all know it was rhetorical - because he is clearly not among the elite riders:D

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

we all know it was rhetorical - because he is clearly not among the elite riders:D

I'm sure you're correct. I'm not much good at determining who is 'elite', but I sure can spot a move up rider.

Whenever Maragh beats you, think of me :D

[the little guy]

Raj has always been a good rider, though he has underachieved in the last couple of years, but his Saratoga riding has been very impressive.

He's a very bright guy who pays an enormous amount of attention.

[Robert Fischer]

:D

the worst part is you are serious

"If anyone in the country is riding better than Maragh, please, tell me the name." :lol:
at first i thought you meant TOGA which is bad enough as there are a handful of guys

it was worth a response but we all KNEW it was rhetorical
*(in the sense that you know there are better SPA RIDERZ(or whole country/global etc...) but you meant he's holdin' his own out there!) COol!:ThmbUp: we all like different jocks and certain things pop out - and sometimes STATS are not the whole truth.

THEN u went with the RHETORICAL comment yourself :liar: - i STILL give you credit here as having a dark sense of humor. Either way it ranges from a very positive spirit continuum(check the cool continuum symbols ahead) of "<<<<I like debating horses n such but I got nothin' against Ya OscarB!! <<<<<<<<<+TO->>>>>>> u got a neat dark sense of humor GOB!!>>>>>>"


With TOGA as great as it is --- it pretty much doesn't matter if we are talking "country" or "COLONY". In spite of the smart ass potential in rattling off a laundry list - i'd rather talk SPA anyway *(although PA-MEMBERS if u r reading this and wanted to post an overlooked jock from somewhere else, who is in Maragh's company = awesome)


GHOST OB(you may have the best "Rap Name" on P.A.!) = Care to point out a specific race/ride/day or even describe whatever tactics you enjoy from MARAGH?? - JOKES ASIDE THIS ISN[T A SHOT AT YOU - I would love to learn something and chances are I would get into the videos and it would be a positive thing.:ThmbUp:


now u made me dig up the statz

dirt SPA(happy ending)

NAME MOUNTS WINS W% PLACES P% SHOWZ S% ITM%.......ROI%
ROY......EARNINGS..... EPS....GPS

RAJ....39......... 4.... 10%...........3... 8% ...4 ...10%... 28% ...-18%
HOBBS...... $287,812.37... $7,380...3 furlongs turn left

STATISTICS ARE DAMNED LIES. ITM% IS the main number here that I find does NOT support the premise that he is a top jockey(what i meant by elite... although rumor has it, Prado has some influential friends in Geneva) or even that MARAGH is a MOVE-UP Jockey. I know we are talking 40 starts here ... but these are money races with fairly competitive fields... a top move-up guy like maragh should be getting longshots up in the money and conserving speed horses to hang on at least for third!
Counting DIRT AND TURF *(NOW UP TO 81 STARTS) he is still only 35% ITM... :( in-the-money is almost a misnomer here! :blush: (lowblow srry)
HOWEVER, TO YOUR CREDIT (I MEAN TO HIS CREDIT!), with FAVORITES (turf or dirt) 'RAJ' HAS BROUGHT IN 6/8 or 75% ITM - MAYBE HE IS RIDING BETTER THAN ALL BUT THE MOST ASTUTE (YOU, ANDY, HIS AGENT) HAVE NOTICED!!! ;):ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[cj]

And I don't know what the hell was happening to Rodman and Prado after Prado made an excellent move to secure the rail into the first turn.

He was in a bit tight and wanted no part of rating. I'm not sure it would have mattered much in the end, but it certainly doomed him at 9f.

[Dexter M]

No sooner do I post that , and Maragh wins the next race at 9/2, literally lifting the horse up in the final 1/8, and surviving a foul.

sorry, more wins do not equal riding better.

I figured Maragh out weeks ago. Even Andy has noticed.

The question was rhetorical.

cool story bro

[PhantomOnTour]

Well, all you had to do was box the best last out Beyers and you got a nice $47 exacta....those damn figs never work! :lol:
Too bad i didn't play it that way.
In fact, the 4th place finisher (Friend Or Foe) had the next best last out Beyer (actually, he tied with Rail Trip with a 103 in their last race).

[PhantomOnTour]

And good luck to all of us who do make speed & pace figs...we will need it when we sit down to come up with a variant for today's card.
Only one dirt route, the Whitney....very interested to see what number Beyer, BRIS, Sheets, CJ and others come up with for this race.

Dirt route variants this week have been slow to very slow, and the raw time of the Whitney says that trend continues.

[keithw84]

Andy Serling made an excellent point on the NYRA feed about the majority of Tizway's losses at 9 panels.

What was the point he made?

[cj]

And good luck to all of us who do make speed & pace figs...we will need it when we sit down to come up with a variant for today's card.
Only one dirt route, the Whitney....very interested to see what number Beyer, BRIS, Sheets, CJ and others come up with for this race.

Dirt route variants this week have been slow to very slow, and the raw time of the Whitney says that trend continues.

Luckily, when you have high quality horses and a number of them run well, it isn't as bad making a "one route" number as it could be.

[PaceAdvantage]

What was the point he made?That many of those losing efforts came as a maiden (at Gulfstream I believe he said) when he wasn't anywhere near as good as he is now.

[cj]

And another came in Japan sans Lasix.

[Robert Fischer]

yea, agreed
I tuned in on the TV coverage
(versus)
and they were being kind of "goofy" questioning Tizway's ability go 9F....

[Tom]

I could make excuses for all his 9 furlong races, but I did not see anything that made me think he would get 9 without trouble. My bad. I'll lose on that kind of horse every time.

[PhantomOnTour]

I came up with rather ordinary Quirin style figs of 111-111-108 for the Whitney. The spread btw horses was large among the top three.
My final number has Flat Out basically running back to his races at LS and CD, with Tizway obviously slipping a bit too as compared to the monster Suburban number.
My best guess is a Beyer of about 106.
It should be out by now huh?

[CBedo]

I came up with rather ordinary Quirin style figs of 111-111-108 for the Whitney. The spread btw horses was large among the top three.
My final number has Flat Out basically running back to his races at LS and CD, with Tizway obviously slipping a bit too as compared to the monster Suburban number.
My best guess is a Beyer of about 106.
It should be out by now huh?111 Beyer for Tizway I read.

[gm10]

111 Beyer for Tizway I read.

I got a pretty high number for him. Quite a bit better than Coil and Stay Thirsty.
He's 14/1 for the BC Classic with Paddy Power. I'm not really convinced that he will stay the 10F but he looks like a decent bet at those odds.

[classhandicapper]

IMO the Whitney was obviously the highest quality race of the year so far no matter what the speed figures say. All you have to do is look at how many good or decent horses got totally buried in there to know that. They didn't all misfire. The race was tough and the winner is unquestionably a top class horse. Whether he can engage other quality horses in a fast pace and get 10F in the Classic is at least somewhat debatable, but he's very good.