Pocono and wagering

[wilderness]

Could somebody possibly provide some "general" summaries on any consistencies at Pocono.

I'm not looking for any "grave betting scoops" rather just some general insights of styles (speed, closers), chalks and such.

I followed yesterdays card and was a bit confused by races not materializing based on past performance lines.

Was yesterday just an exception or are the PCD cards always so difficult?

[LottaKash]

Could somebody possibly provide some "general" summaries on any consistencies at Pocono.

I'm not looking for any "grave betting scoops" rather just some general insights of styles (speed, closers), chalks and such.

I followed yesterdays card and was a bit confused by races not materializing based on past performance lines.

Was yesterday just an exception or are the PCD cards always so difficult?

Very Difficult Don....

Pocono, for me at least, is probably the most perplexing track for me....My ROI is the lowest of any of the 5/8th's track that I play....

Yet, I keep coming back for more.....I don't know why tho....:bang:

The stretch runs, I think more than at any other 5/8ths, is the key...Your intended contenders if in a postion at the top of lane, seem to have more of a chance to win than at most any of the other 5/8 ers...The race is never over at the half or by the 3/4's as it is at most other 58's....I see it time again, where a horse that I had voted for with $$, has a nice lead at the top of the lane, then yet, out of the clouds, will come a horse flying up the homelane and nail me at the wire....When at another 5/8ths, with the same early speed scenario, it might be a done deal by the last corner....

Conversely, at Chester, which has the shortest homestretch of any of the 5/8ths, you can usually count on early speed to get you home the winner....Sure, it changes with the weather and the Bias and all, but most races are decided by the time they get to the 5/8ths or at a minimum the 3/4's....

As far as Pocono being a fair track, I think it is for the most part....It is just this stretch run thing....I am often, when things haven't turned out as I may have suspected, I am having to go back to my program to see what it is that I may have missed...And, sometimes, I don't get it...But heck, that is what makes this game so much of a challenge and fun....

Perhaps someday I will master this track, and maybe that is why I keep coming back for more....The Challenge of it, you know.....:jump:

Still, on some days, when I catch the crowd looking the other way, I get some nice kash on those races (my kind), on those days...I am very careful there even so...very...

I wanted to mention this also, as I used to live not 25 or so miles from Pocono, and for a bunch of years, and it was my home track all that time....And, even before that, when I lived in Jersey about 130 or so miles away, I would often make the trek up to the Downs....Way, way before it was a Racino....Well, the weather on that RED Track, changes the way it plays on a day by day basis....So, maybe it is a Horses for Courses thing.... I knew a few horseman, back in the day, and when asked, they would say something about the how the treack is/was playing...."Every day is Different here" seem to be a popular consensus....They get a lot of rain and the track compositon is very sensitive to the moisture changes, I think....It doesn't seem to dry out as quickly or the same as at most other tracks....Sometimes, with the off and on rains of the Pocono's, a bias can change nightly or linger for more than it's fair share of days....It pays to pay attention to that aspect at PcD...

best,

[Not4Love]

Are the turns banked at Pocono? They look it. Jeff Gural is talking about converting the meadowlands surface, so that the turns are banked. Can anyone give some perspective on how you should adjust your handicapping? Thanks.

[wilderness]

The Meadowlands was banked until a few years ago when the grade was removed to appease the T-Breds.

Unfortunately the grade was ever so slight and never restored. Despite the low percentage of grade compared to other tracks, the drivers complained that the flattening out decreased the changes of the closers.

Believe the old grade was 5% and the current grade is 3%.
There should be an old press release on the USTA website.



Many thanks Kash for the detailed explanation.

[pandy]

Last year and this Pocono Downs has played fairly, it is not that speed favoring. There is no slanted gate but if you have a good horse on the outside it can leave if it has good gate speed, posts 8 and 9 wins 6%. Closers do okay, the outside flow is a bit better than most five eighth tracks. Georgie Napolitano, Jr. is the dominant driver but several other guys do well. The favorites are winning at 41%. I do pretty well there when I concentrate on it but I haven't gone up there year this year and I haven't followed the track that closely, but it's a good surface, well banked, not as biased as some tracks, which is good.

[cecil127]

Matt Kakaley is a good one to wager on....
esp now that nap's got a lil break.....

[wilderness]

selections and/or winners (because overall I'm doing poorly in that regard) are not this point of this thread.

Rather, in the 2nd tonight this horse (GRNGRASANHITIMES) showed a gutsy performance that was not in the lines.

The "angle" of which last night multiple angles treated me nicely, was simply the driver change and the speed the horse has shown (although flat the last quarter) in its last races.

Mares frequently get dull when a driver is used regularly, however Romano didn't help a few races back. Anthony did tonight.

The problem with these angle plays is that its impossible to mix pattern logic in the exotics.

Are these types of upsets a regular affair at Pocono?

[wilderness]

And what's the deal with Taggart?

Is he just out of the "click"?

He gets some moderately live drives, however they don't seem to fire.

[LottaKash]

The "angle" of which last night multiple angles treated me nicely, was simply the driver change and the speed the horse has shown (although flat the last quarter) in its last races.

Don, at PcD, often enough, little things "do" mean a lot at this venue...

best,

[LottaKash]

And what's the deal with Taggart?

Is he just out of the "click"?

He gets some moderately live drives, however they don't seem to fire.

Don, perhaps it's just my perception of Taggart, but he sure seems to have been around a good while...Maybe he's lost his touch or his reflexes have lessened to some degree....Many years ago, he would run hot and cold, in streaks of winning and losing....Still, back then, when the money was down, he could rate a horse pretty well, and was bettable at those times....Nowadays, the game has changed a bit, and the action is a little different, with the flow going forward more so, than back then....Perhaps he is behind the times a bit....Still, he was never one of my faves, even so....

best,

[wilderness]

"Perhaps he is behind the times a bit....Still, he was never one of my faves, even so...."

kash,
Sometimes the slight-off-edge is needed to round out the edges ;)
Especially in exotics.

I've abandoned Poco tonight (except for the 13th where I played some tris) and the Meadwos (too many trot stakes and F&M's for my taste's.) Did find a couple of of plays at the Meadows.

I'm not betting much, however need to this "flow" to return from my longtime exodus of wagering.
I'd damned near forgotten how to read the program ;)

Thanks gain for you help.

[LottaKash]

"Thanks gain for you help.

Don, that is why we are here, "to protect and serve"....:D

And my thx to you Don, for all the timely tidbits of info that you offer this crew...:ThmbUp:

best,