Maidens and Maiden Winners Next Out

[PressThePace]

I generally stay away from these races as I cannot find an edge. But at the the same time, I know these types offer some pretty good prices. Could anyone lead me toward a resource or two that address maidens? Or if anyone could shed some light on an approach that you use, that would be great.

[cj]

I look for early speed and horses likely to improve. Those would be lightly raced horses that had tough trips, or weren't well meant, changing surface, or distance, etc.

[pondman]

Or if anyone could shed some light on an approach that you use, that would be great.

A bet off a maiden win is one of my plays at B level tracks--Something about horses on the West Coast running back in a 3/4 mile under the claiming conditions of $6,250 and 12,000 after a maiden win seems to work for me. I've got to see the same jockey riding. But you, as with all bets, should want higher odds.

In Southern California, you'll infrequently see Alan Patterson riding back on a $10,000 claimer after a maiden win. They usually add or subtract from the distance to throw another rinkle in the handicapping. I think the odds are usually high enough to make these bets playable over time.

Thirty percent of my play is spread between maidens and horses off a maiden win (the remainder of my bets are on shippers.) These are similiar to all bets. If the maiden misses by a nose and is running back at 10-1 with the same jockey, I'd usually say it has a shot. But again you need to see some odds.

[Tom]

I like improved early speed and class drops. Even small ones.

[Ocala Mike]

I like second time starters NOT moving up in class. Just as the biggest drop in racing is MdSpWt to MdClm, I believe the biggest "unexplained" improvement for a horse can be from his first start to his second. Remember your first day at school? Traumatic, wasn't it. Horses are the same way.

I look for hidden positives in the horse's first race, NOT how well he ran (in fact, I hope he shows "bad paper"). These positives include: horse was bet, horse gets equipment or surface change today, horse is going for a good 2nd start trainer, horse ran "greenly," horse "popped and stopped," etc., etc.

Caught a few at Saratoga already this year, including Mott's REACH A DECISION ($26.20) on 7/29.

I've never been very successful with maiden winners next out, but let me at those big improvers in 2nd start.


Ocala Mike

[Valuist]

I love key races as a tool for Mdns and Mdn Claimers. First time starters in general tend to be overbet. Tend to like horses that haven't had too many chances, have some speed, and maybe doing something different today (i.e. distance change, surface change or adding blinkers or Lasix).

As for horses coming off a maiden win, once again if doing something different was the key to getting the win, they may move up and win. You see horses that stumble around, then they add the blinkers and break their maiden; maybe they were meant to run 2 turns. And unlike many, I do believe in manner of victory. In other words, horses who are geared down (IMO) likely could've won by more. I like to make my own comments whether a horse was truly "driving" or ridden out or geared down.

[BIG49010]

I like Maiden Turf winners that won by a couple lengths, and move into a winners class other than Allowance.

[Fingal]

I love key races as a tool for Mdns and Mdn Claimers. First time starters in general tend to be overbet. Tend to like horses that haven't had too many chances, have some speed, and maybe doing something different today (i.e. distance change, surface change or adding blinkers or Lasix).

As for horses coming off a maiden win, once again if doing something different was the key to getting the win, they may move up and win. You see horses that stumble around, then they add the blinkers and break their maiden; maybe they were meant to run 2 turns. And unlike many, I do believe in manner of victory. In other words, horses who are geared down (IMO) likely could've won by more. I like to make my own comments whether a horse was truly "driving" or ridden out or geared down.

Maiden claiming winners that are realistically placed in their next start. If someone breaks their mdn for 32k, then they are worth about half that, i.e. 16k or less.

Straight mdn winners that only took 2 or 3 starts to win that are the fresh face in a starter ALW race. Especially in one that's full of those who have proved they can't break out of that condition.

To expound on changing style- the closer that all of a sudden shows a burst of speed. Or the other way around, the front runner that now closes.

[gm10]

I generally stay away from these races as I cannot find an edge. But at the the same time, I know these types offer some pretty good prices. Could anyone lead me toward a resource or two that address maidens? Or if anyone could shed some light on an approach that you use, that would be great.

One thing to look out for is maidens that made a big move during the middle or, preferably, late stages of the race, but still only finished in the middle of the field.

Traditional speed and pace figures will fail to pick up on this, and because of people's dependence on those figures, you'll often get a nice price in their second start. (Best way to find them is to construct your own 'late' figures.)

(I also use this angle to place ante-post bets on young or unexposed horses.)

[RaceBookJoe]

I like improved early speed and class drops. Even small ones.

Great spot play, especially if they get a switch to a better jockey, but that might lower the odds a bit but still gives you a decent play. rbj

[RaceBookJoe]

One thing to look out for is maidens that made a big move during the middle or, preferably, late stages of the race, but still only finished in the middle of the field.

Traditional speed and pace figures will fail to pick up on this, and because of people's dependence on those figures, you'll often get a nice price in their second start. (Best way to find them is to construct your own 'late' figures.)

(I also use this angle to place ante-post bets on young or unexposed horses.)

Totally agree with the turn-time advantage, maybe a little bit moreso at the mid to smaller tracks. rbj

[RaceBookJoe]

For 1st time starters I always look at the trainer stats and workout spacings and possibly a recent fast workout depending on the circuit. Even though i have gotten a little away from it, with 1st timers i would look for a horse that is either owned and bred or owned and trained by the same person AND is getting decent money bet on him, applies on MSW. rbj

[MMM59]

Maidens and Maiden Winners Next Out[I]

Playing Maiden winners next out is a very low percentage win, while I dont have actual numbers.....you can and should look through the Racing Form,and can clearly see, most Maiden winners lose their next race.

[Robert Goren]

In md or mcl, look for who second and beat the the third place horse by a bunch. I also look at third place horses who very close to the second placed horse and beat the fourth placed horse by a bunch.
The public seems to love horses who were on the lead till the end and finished third. I found you can get decent odds on the horse which ran second and beat it.

[Eddie W]

First-time starter is a nice thing to look for....Breeding, work-outs,
Sirs, owner's...Jockey-Trainer's stats..