Hambletonian 2011

[Hanover1]

Field is set. Lets try to get some winners out to you guys for this....
My choice all year has been Manofmanymissions out of the Erv Miller stable. Watched this colt all winter off a WR setting performance last year, capped with a tote board exploding win in the BC. Blew up the tote board last out in the Dancer ($29.00) and we were on board. Folks shy away from him because when not winning he breaks, wich is every start or 2 according to his lifetime stats. World of speed when flat. Unbeatable? should be a good wagering race, as he still has the question marks. I can't bet against myself....

[mirror Image]

Should be a good one. The draw is Tuesday but as of now i'm going for chapter seven.

[toetoe]

Blue Porsche did not make it, did he ?

[LottaKash]

Blue Porsche did not make it, did he ?

No toetoe, he didn't make it....He was sidelined since mid june, and didn't come back very well, for this elim.....Too bad, he is a very nice colt....He would've made the Hambo that much more interesting, I think...

best,

[sonnyp]

here's the draw:


PP-Horse-Driver-Trainer-ML
1-Broad Bahn-George Brennan-Noel Daley-4-1
2-Manofmanymissions-Andy Miller-Erv Miller-9-5
3-Fawkes-Yannick Gingras-Jonas Czernyson-15-1
4-Chapter Seven-Mike Lachance-Linda Toscano-7-2
5-Whit-Tim Tetrick-Homer Hochstetler-8-1
6-Whiskey Tax-Randy Waples-Thomas Durand-15-1
7-Opening Night-John Campbell-Jim Campbell-10-1
8-Magnum Kosmos-Brian Sears-Tony Dinges-15-1
9-Luckycharm Hanover-David Miller-T. Haughton-15-1
10-Pastor Stephen-Ron Pierce-Jimmy Takter-10-1


selections ?

[mirror Image]

If Chapter Seven don't win I might have to file for it :D .
Awesome card, don't forget 2 pick 4's one at 150K.
Can you single Crys Dream :confused: .

[sonnyp]

pp's for hambletonian card :





http://www.hambletonian.org/resources/Sat._Aug._61.pdf

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Probably a safe bet for place, fast enough, should be right there, no breaking issues.

[LottaKash]

.

Just a reminder folks, 1st-Post for Hambo Day is 11:30 a.m.......

Did you get that Seabiscuit ?.....

Great card, btw, lots of High-$$$$$-races....

best,

[cecil127]

cant wait, cant wait:jump: my first Hambo:cool:
early leans for the pick 4:
r6: 2/7
r7: 2/5
r8: 1/2
r9: 2

[Ray2000]

Hambo

I'll go with #2 Manofmanymissions... wins or runs
So my play is 2 | 14 | 1457810 | 1457810 40 tkts in the Superfecta

If he mis-steps then the Super is something more like 4-1-yada yada--2-5-7-8-10

so playing
...........41 | 41 | 257810 | 257810 40 tks


this would be a total 80... 10¢ tkts or $8.00 and watch a good trotting race......

[JBmadera]

I wonder if Broad Bahn can go gate to wire? He'll be my play at 5-1 or higher. Going to be a GREAT day.

GL all.

[LottaKash]

I did this once before this afternoon, and now I am doing this all over again....It seems that my UPS battery backup has been giving me fits lately, and when I was nearly done with this analysis, it went out just when I was proofreading it., and then poof it was gone.....haha..So here it is again...Better late than never, I suppose.=============================

Before I begin, I would like to give a little insight into the pace numbers that I use when doing my homework....The numbers that I use are named by me, as "Quantified Quarter", or QQ's...Each horse is given a number that is essentially an individual number for each of his quarters in a ny particular mile race....These numbers are just 1/4-mile fractions that have been converted to "whole numbers"....It makes it so much easier, at a glance, using whole numbers rather than 1/4 fractionaltimes, to see how well a horse has been doing lately, so that when you match his running line and his position at each or any of the quarter's in any particular race, you can get a pretty good idea of how hard this horse was working in relation to his QQ...I try to measure and compare his positon at a given quarter in relation to the QQ he earned for that quarter, and how much work, or lack of work that he did while earning that individual QQ juncture of his race....This way you can quickly measure how a horse is doing lately this way....Improving, Regressing, or Staying the same vs. his competition and in his current form cycle.
.======================================
I use the Speed Rating for that class, as par for each of the QQ's......And this is how I analyzed this race, using the QQ'sThis is the expected QQ par for each quarter... The QQ par for the Hambo = 94A race to par for this class would be = 94 94 94 94...(but of course, as you will soon see, it doesn't usually come out that way....Each of a horse's race is different....110 and higher, and the higher the better, will usually get my attention, especially if they were back to back or 3 back to backs, and super good is 4 back to back high numbers...But any numbers, class dependent of course, that are "significantly higher" than par, are exceptional, and more so when they are back to back....This shows both fitness and strength.
..=======================================
I think that this is the most competitve Hambo that we have seen these past few years...The "main" players in the 7th Race Hambo: with the QQ's for each of it's last two races...

.#1 ..... BROAD BAHN................. 111 84 96 90
................................................ 115 69 91 84

BB, has run well early in each of his last two races, and judging by his quickest of the bunch early QQ's, he should be the leader early on...But when he is not on the engine, he doesn't fare as well as when he only wins when on the lead....In his last race from the 8-hole, he left for quick command, but he faced the easiest bunch in the elims, with not much legitmate speed, so no big deal there...And, I might add, they were getting to him as they neared the wire....By design ?....Maybe, as he had already made the playoffs at that point and there was no sense in punishment just yet.....He finished 2d to MOM's two back, but he was thouroghly trounced by 6-1/2 lengths tho, in that one....He is fast and fit and should get a nice check in this $1,500,000 contest....
================================
#2 ..... MANOFMANYMISSIONS... 87 100 110 87
............................................... 83 94 102 104
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MOM's, to me, is the one to fear and beat, and until someone shows him up, he remains at the head of the class so far this year.....In his elim, he was well meant early, and from the 7-hole he got a very quick (for him) 4-hole, but before he could settle in for a bit, he was alertly taken out of that spot when Magnum Kosmos sudenly vacated his 3-hole seat and jumped to quick command before they hit the 3/8's, leaving MOMs first over at that juncture....MK and MOMs raced as a team most of the way until deep stretch, when under a very light urging hand ride, he won his elim by a length....Andy Miller seemed to me at least, to have it measured thru the lane....In MOMs 2d start back, in the Stanley Dancer Mem, he had the same type of 1st over score winning easily by 6-1/4....in VG QQ's .....I like a horse in Big-Races that , in it's most prvious race, won of finished gamely after going it the hard way on the rim...He was very brave in his last race....Still, can a horse go the 1st over route 3 in a row and win ?... And, I believe that is what he will have to do in order to win this one..But, in his favor, he does have the best middle QQ's of this bunch...We will see, if that is enough, on Sat afternoon...
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#4 ..... CHAPTER SEVEN.......... 72 88 107 107
............................................ 81 88 86 107
CS is the key to this race....He is making only his 2d start back since Nov of 2010....In his first start back, he grinded his way to a win by a head in his split heat of the Stanley Dancer....He came home in 27:3 in that win, and I just love a horse making his seasonal debut with a wicked fast last quarter....A sure sign of fitness and class....He was 7 for 8 last year when they quit with him and he is 1 for 2 now......In his last start even tho he couldn't quite get to BB in that race, he was very game, and was coming like a rocket late....He was too far back early , and was just out of position until midlane, but in his defense, he had so much road trouble early, as he had poor and weak cover the whole way round, when finally he had to go 4 deep on the last corner to shuck off all that junk...After that juncture he just blew by all of the others, and proved his fitness ,by closing so well and so fast... He was easily 2d best....And as the camera panned them just past the finish, he was still coming....His back to back QQ's of 107 each, puts him right into the thick of this picture.....A more alert trip with better cover, gets this guy to the line in powerful fashion....There should be a good fight early and middle, and it just might set up perfectly for his type of running style....He has shown decent early speed at 2, so I wouldn't be surprised if Mike LaChance uses him a wee bit to get a decent positon earlier in this one...He is fast and fit....The others had better watch out for this guy, as there is no telling how good or how fast this guy can be....If he can improve enough to tack on 1-more quick QQ to his already solid late running 107's he will win it....I wouldn't be that surprised at all...
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#8 ..... MAGNUM KOSMOS....... 94 99 103 81
............................................ 83 102 87 77

MK, surprised me a bit in his last race with Brennan at the helm....He ran solid enough early QQ's, so that if used not too hard early, he can make a fight of it, that is, only if he improves off of that loss to MOMs....And, by the same token (decent early lick) this guy can mess things up enough to affect the early pace and perhaps the final outcome....Hey the race is for a Millon-Five...!.....With Sears aboard now, ya never know. haha...Could make it interesting....
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#10 .... PASTOR STEPHEN......... 81 99 108 85.
..............................................115 66 85 67

PS, is not nearly the horse that he was last year when he won some big races up in Canada....This year tho, not as good as most expected him to be this year...In his defense 4 races back he ran 108 96 95 99 QQ's at PcD finishing second to Dejarmbro..followed by a 2d place finish to BB, but his 2-late QQ's in that loss were =100 117, still, He bounced badly off of that effort and has been beaten by MOMs in his last two....Still, in his last start, even tho beaten by MOMs and MK, he was closing with good trot for 3d in that elim....I put him in this lineup just because, Ron Pierce has a way, when the big money is on the line....Could get a nice surprise placing if he improves off of his last....He started out the year with 3-scores in a row, and he beat a nice buch of overnite trotters in nw17K-L5 in his 2d start back, besting former Open trotter Big Boy Lloyd in that one, with QQ's of 72 110 102 120 in that one, (he could win this with numbers like these)....3yo' trotters are a weird bunch at times....so if some crazy dramatic scenario pops ups and this guy is sound and improving, ya never know sometimes...

I also wanted to add this, all of these racers have raced their last races well within themselves, without any punishment whatsoever...

So, who's gonna win this year's Hambo....I don't know....I just like to think and write about it...

Good Luck to all in the game on SAT's Hambo-Day.....

best,

[jefftune]

My Hambo picks:

CHAPTER SEVEN
MANOFMANYMISSIONS
BROAD BAHN
WHISKEY TAX

-Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

[sonnyp]

wow!!! in the third, big jim and roll with joe slug it out up front to a 3/4's in :19 and change setting it up for shadyshark hanover. final time :47 and change.

you'd better have your racing shoes on there today !!!

[LottaKash]

wow!!! in the third, big jim and roll with joe slug it out up front to a 3/4's in :19 and change setting it up for shadyshark hanover. final time :47 and change.

you'd better have your racing shoes on there today !!!

I'll say dancing shoes....So far looks like a closers day....I mean the track is ultra fast today....Not a good thing, today for the fronts...

That is why I couldn't pick the Hambo winner beforehand, couldn't predict a bias either way....You know full well Sonny, that on a mid-afternoon, it is much different than on an evenings card....I see evidence of it today, so far at least....The smart drivers "do" catch on after a bit, tho...

Chapter Seven wins the Hambo, if things stay the same....

Also if things stay the same....I look for an upset to Crys Dream...Iron Lady (if she can stay flat) in the 8th race, has the recent numbers to pull off the upset...At a price that is...

best,

[Hanover1]

MOM looked rough when tucked into the 4 hole. Was waiting for him to run the whole mile...Very rough gaited today, and did what he does....Time to go to the tub Erv....plenty of time before the BC, use it wisely, and this colt can repeat despite it all.