formula_2002
07-30-2011, 04:02 PM
Beating the favorite and the track
Example of three horse field race in an 18% take out track.
Let’s say the favorite odds are 1-1 then;
A.
Three real horses + one track horse
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .50 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.22
The track has a winning horse in every race and no one can bet on that horse, and it pays 3.5-1 odds.
B.
The real probability of the hoses #1, #2 and #3 are
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .39 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .195 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .195 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
[B]To break even beating the favorite horse and the track horse, the public must over bet the favorite.
A $1 bet on the #2 and the #3 horse in 100 races cost $200
Given that horse #2 and #3 run at track odds of 3-1, then in order to get a return of $200 in 100 races, any one of the two horses must win a combined total of 50%.
Therefore;
C.
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .28 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
In this case, the even money favorite must win no more than 28% of the time, compared to the 39% of the time it would “normally” win,
72% of normal
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Now let’s say the favorite odds are 1.5-1 then;
A1
Real horse #1 1.5 -1 track odds .40 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-11 track odds .30 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.22
The real probability of the hoses #1, #2 and #3 are;
B1
Real horse #1 1.5 -1 track odds .33 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-1 track odds .225 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .225 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
To break even beating the favorite horse and the track horse, the public must over bet the favorite.
A $1 bet on the #2 and the #3 horse in 100 races cost $200
Given that horse #2 and #3 run at track odds of 2.33-1, then in order to get a return of $200 in 100 races, any one of the two horses must win a combined total of 60%.
Therefore;
C1
Real horse #1 1.5-1 track odds .18 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds . .22 probabilities
Total book 1.00
In this case, the even money favorite must win no more than 18% of the time, compared to the 33% of the time it would “normally” win,
54.5% of normalNo accommodation is made here for the long to short odds biases.
Example of three horse field race in an 18% take out track.
Let’s say the favorite odds are 1-1 then;
A.
Three real horses + one track horse
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .50 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.22
The track has a winning horse in every race and no one can bet on that horse, and it pays 3.5-1 odds.
B.
The real probability of the hoses #1, #2 and #3 are
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .39 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .195 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .195 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
[B]To break even beating the favorite horse and the track horse, the public must over bet the favorite.
A $1 bet on the #2 and the #3 horse in 100 races cost $200
Given that horse #2 and #3 run at track odds of 3-1, then in order to get a return of $200 in 100 races, any one of the two horses must win a combined total of 50%.
Therefore;
C.
Real horse #1 1-1 track odds .28 probability
Real horse #2 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Real horse #3 3-1 track odds .25 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
In this case, the even money favorite must win no more than 28% of the time, compared to the 39% of the time it would “normally” win,
72% of normal
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now let’s say the favorite odds are 1.5-1 then;
A1
Real horse #1 1.5 -1 track odds .40 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-11 track odds .30 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.22
The real probability of the hoses #1, #2 and #3 are;
B1
Real horse #1 1.5 -1 track odds .33 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-1 track odds .225 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .225 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds .22 probability
Total book 1.00
To break even beating the favorite horse and the track horse, the public must over bet the favorite.
A $1 bet on the #2 and the #3 horse in 100 races cost $200
Given that horse #2 and #3 run at track odds of 2.33-1, then in order to get a return of $200 in 100 races, any one of the two horses must win a combined total of 60%.
Therefore;
C1
Real horse #1 1.5-1 track odds .18 probability
Real horse #2 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Real horse #3 2.33-1 track odds .30 probability
Track horse 3.5-1 track odds . .22 probabilities
Total book 1.00
In this case, the even money favorite must win no more than 18% of the time, compared to the 33% of the time it would “normally” win,
54.5% of normalNo accommodation is made here for the long to short odds biases.