Seconditis angle

[Valuist]

How often have you seen this one? A horse has severe seconditis at the Mdn or Mdn clmng level and finally breaks thru for a win. It seems like once they get it figured out, then they follow it up w/another win. Wildman Joey, a horse NY bettors may remember, had 16 starts with 0 wins and 7 seconds. He finally broke thru for a win at Haw vs Mdns. He came back yesterday to crush a field of NW1X; earning a big figure (I gave him a 96 on the Beyer scale).

[kitts]

I've done well with "seconditis" as a "no way am I betting him to win." I have also noticed so many times a horse wins his MDN and his next race and that's all she wrote. I have no stats on this, I just notice it a lot. And if the competition has one good win better than the other guy with those two back-to-back wins, I have found it safe to dump the back-to-back one.

[Amazin]

Valuist

Since I concentrated on Haw.This weekend,I have 2 observations about your example of "Wildman Joey".His maiden win was with Silva(who rode him for the first time in that maiden breaker).Silva rode him again yesterday. So Jock factor? yesterday he was entered in a good spot,was the lone speed. So trainer placement off the maiden win?

Hawthorne was interesting this weekend cause it was bomb city. The Amazing thing to me is alot of these bomb winners had either the fastest or one of the fastest times in the race and went off at ridiculous odds. The camouplauging of these horses makes an interesting study.

[Valuist]

Haw had a couple head-scratcher results yesterday, IMO. Mt. Waverly was one, and did have some good back numbers but since he was claimed he had around 4-5 races and all were lousy. Beautiful Crazy couldn't win out of the FNW2X level at Haw, which has been a stronger than usual condition this meet, gets switched to a less preferable surface, and now has to cope with a number of CD invaders. I only gave her an 86, which told me that the Kentucky horses lost the race more than she won it. The other results were pretty sensible and some were more value than the others.

[Amazin]

The two horses you bring up are examples of camophlauged horses.Just on face value,Mt Waverly(22-1) had the 3rd highest rating(speed wise) in the race(in my figures). For me he also had 3 foreboding signs of impending improvement. First it was coming off a layoff and needed his last.Second and complimentary, it's last was a huge improvement from his previous 4 starts.the points of call was only 2 lengths back for 3 of the 4 calls.Signs of improving health off the layoff? Also the rider rode him for the first time in the last try and rerode for Saturday's victory.The other speed in here(favorite) did not materialize as that horse came out of a "top" performance and bounced to 2nd last. That left Mt. Waverly with an easy wire job.

Beautiful Crazy(36-1),was even more camoplauged but it was classic..A 3yo filly route stake on dirt.This horse was on turf her last 5 starts.I rated her from 6 back when last seen on dirt.In my figures she tied for best time. But she was actually the best time.Why?Because her time was from 6 back on May 3.Six months of maturity for a 3yo is alot.Her dirt ability time now is improved but unknown since she's been on Turf the last 5 tries.Projecting the maturity into her time from 6 months ago puts her on top. And again she had the very potent angle of needing her last IMO.

One unrelated point is that when horses like these win and tickets get thrown and people start crying foul that the races are fixed,I can now say that maybe some are,but these were not.Theses horses figured big time to me.I now realize that it's out of frustration at not being able to see thru the camophluage of these kind of horses pp's that people claim the races are fixed.

[Valuist]

I have a hard time w/the Beautiful Crazy argument because the horse seemed to improve when it switched to grass. Now back on dirt, it didn't figure to move her up. And the winning time wasn't good; the Kentucky shippers went off form more than B.C. improved. I believe Mt Waverly was claimed away from either Stidham or Calhoun; two very sharp trainers. Mt Waverly maybe did show some improvement in her last but needed a long ways to improve to get back to his back numbers in the other barn. Both horses cost me Pic 3s, and I really can't say I lost sleep over not using either one.

[Amazin]

How do you make your speed figures for horses? The main reason they were contenders for me was mainly their speed figure rank vs the other horses in their respectibe fields was high.As I said, Mt Waverly was ranked 3rd and Beautiful Crazy was ranked 1st. How did they rank in your method and do you use a particular paceline or another method to get a fig.

[JustMissed]

Probably should not give this out but you fellows have been good to me.

Certain owner/trainers with the help of their "go to" jockey make a damn fine living placing second & third.

Once a cheap maiden claimer breaks their maiden-there is no where to go but up.

If a O/T has a horse that cannot or is not ready to compete consistently at NW2, NW16m, etc. conditions, why not place or show as many times as possible before he loses the condition and has to move up or drop to a lower claiming price.

When you find one of these trainers/horses and use them in the place/show slots in your exotics, it's like have your own personal ATM machine.

If you want to check this out yourself, look thru you old pp's at the 4K MC races for O/T with 30 to 40% or better place/show. I bet the next out the little gal ran second or third a good bit of the time with the same jock on board every time.

Good luck,


JustMissed
;)

[Valuist]

Just Missed-

Agree 100% re: the equine ATM machines. I've been a part owner in a horse who competed in both conditioned claiming and NW1X and there's plenty of times you don't mind running 2nd or 3rd, but you do want to get the win at some point because that 60% makes up for three 2nd place finishes.

Amazin-

I learned to make figures via Beyer method. I've been making them for about 20 years. I usually only make #s for the Chicago tracks and Kee and CD. But I feel pretty confident in my Haw numbers. I could see how software could generate Mt Waverly as a play since he did have big back numbers, but I downgraded him due to his poor efforts since he was claimed. As for Beautiful Crazy, she actually improved when she switched to turf; if she had been coming off a layoff I could understand projecting her number based on maturity. But she had been racing steadily, and unspectacularly. Still, she needed the stars and universe to be aligned perfectly; she improved and all the other main contenders went backwards; some significantly. And those who follow Chicago racing know owner Frank Calabrese is one of the bigger bettors in the country; when his horses are well-meant, they usually are never as high as 5-1, let alone 35-1. Certainly Calabrese didn't think much of her chances.