Betting favorites

[dav4463]

Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.

Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?

I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!

There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.

[Steven Kolb]

Hey David!

From MY experience...

At the Major tracks ML favorites win about 29% - 32% of the time. NY & CA Pick 6 races are pretty close to 30%.

At the second level of tracks - over all races - roughly 35% at best (when I tracked them a few years ago).

At smaller tracks & fairs - over 35% can and does happen. 40% = maybe for a short duration.

I think most from this forum will agree... it's really, really tough to grind out winnings from betting favorites. Even a short three day losing streak will set you way back.

That's a broad answer - not having run 50 tracks results through a computer.

Good Luck!

sk

[Helles]

David, I think you are right. The last I saw it was running more like 35% for post time favorites. I'm running something else on my database right now, otherwise I'd check. I'm sure someone will be along shortly to confirm it has been higher than 33% over the last year.

PS. Loved your book Steven.

[sjk]

year fav pct
2003 35.83%
2004 35.57%
2005 35.85%
2006 36.11%
2007 36.15%
2008 36.52%
2009 37.05%
2010 37.61%
2011 37.39%

[Robert Fischer]

Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.

Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?

I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!

There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.

trying to remember the "action" pick 3 using favorites method...
I think it was


ML FAV
dominant Trainer or Jock (pick the biggest "edge". This tends to pick one of the FAVS)
PICK MOST LIKELY WINNER (that you think is most likely to win / highest estimated win%)
This method gives up to 3 horses in each race, but if the same horse meets more than 1 qualification, they OVERLAP & you end up using LESS horses (example: if all 3 same horse then you have a "single"...)
bet lowest denomination - Not a high ROI but it offers a quick "fun" "action" use of favs

[benzer]

Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.

Will any of the old betting on favorites methods work today?

I remember one where you bet 1-1-2-4-8-16 units until you hit or lose six in a row. At some tracks lately; this would work every day for a month!

There was another one where you pick your personal three most obvious horses on one card who should be the favorite. Bet the ones that end up as favorites at even money or higher.
Only betting favorites would be a tough way to stay in the black. A big problem with the stats on favorites has to do with the final betting pool. Many times there are 2 or more horses close in the pool but of course at the end only one can be determined as the favorite. That is not always easy to tell in advance.

In other words looking at past results, and trying to formulate a betting strategy based on favorites will be misleading at best.

[toussaud]

think any serious study you did of this you have to break this up utnil different tiers of tracks. Charles town does not operate like keeneland and you can't put the numbers in there just like it's the same thing.

[Jeff P]

Here's what I have in my current database (spanning a little over the past year) for post time favorites:

First, All track codes:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKODDS=1


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 95955.90 100791.80 101829.80
Bet -113452.00-113452.00-113452.00
Gain -17496.10 -12660.20 -11622.20

Wins 20928 32766 39781
Plays 56726 56726 56726
PCT .3689 .5776 .7013

ROI 0.8458 0.8884 0.8976
Avg Mut 4.59 3.08 2.56




Next, post time favorites broken out by track code:

************************************************** **************************************
BY TRACK sorted by Track Code Run Date: 7/29/2011 5:53:05 PM
************************************************** **************************************
WIN WIN WIN PLACE PLACE
TRACK PLAYS WINS PCT IMPACT ROI PLACES PCT ROI
************************************************** **************************************
ABT 6 2 0.3333 0.9034 0.6917 3 0.5 0.7
ALB 316 135 0.4272 1.1579 0.9019 184 0.5823 0.9006
APX 1001 348 0.3477 0.9425 0.8486 545 0.5445 0.8782
AQU 989 416 0.4206 1.14 0.9272 601 0.6077 0.8898
ARP 316 124 0.3924 1.0636 0.8709 189 0.5981 0.9538
ASD 588 193 0.3282 0.8896 0.762 335 0.5697 0.8966
ATL 40 10 0.25 0.6776 0.61 15 0.375 0.6375
ATO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BCF 28 14 0.5 1.3553 1.0786 19 0.6786 1.0536
BEL 1032 381 0.3692 1.0007 0.8635 602 0.5833 0.8869
BEU 983 353 0.3591 0.9734 0.7884 588 0.5982 0.8843
BKF 5 3 0.6 1.6263 1.02 4 0.8 1.04
BOI 44 18 0.4091 1.1089 0.9636 24 0.5455 0.8455
CAS 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CBY 507 206 0.4063 1.1013 0.9224 328 0.6469 0.9536
CDX 701 231 0.3295 0.8931 0.8374 376 0.5364 0.8586
CLS 214 72 0.3364 0.9118 0.8308 116 0.5421 0.8787
CNL 463 171 0.3693 1.001 0.8368 262 0.5659 0.8684
CPW 54 17 0.3148 0.8533 0.6833 30 0.5556 0.8583
CRC 1775 686 0.3865 1.0476 0.8812 1064 0.5994 0.8959
CTX 2346 851 0.3627 0.9831 0.7922 1332 0.5678 0.8625
DED 900 306 0.34 0.9216 0.8286 489 0.5433 0.8892
DEL 1191 476 0.3997 1.0834 0.8728 722 0.6062 0.8983
DMR 382 129 0.3377 0.9153 0.8712 200 0.5236 0.8779
ELK 27 10 0.3704 1.004 0.8148 16 0.5926 0.8278
ELP 376 133 0.3537 0.9587 0.9141 218 0.5798 0.9552
EMD 882 329 0.373 1.011 0.8265 522 0.5918 0.8799
EMT 3 0 0 0 0 1 0.3333 0.3667
EVD 1134 384 0.3386 0.9178 0.8412 617 0.5441 0.8886
FER 46 20 0.4348 1.1785 0.9196 27 0.587 0.8283
FEX 779 275 0.353 0.9568 0.8476 431 0.5533 0.8861
FGX 867 316 0.3645 0.988 0.846 486 0.5606 0.8458
FLG 23 10 0.4348 1.1785 1.0174 15 0.6522 1.0087
FLX 1739 697 0.4008 1.0864 0.8389 1089 0.6262 0.9018
FMT 253 78 0.3083 0.8357 0.6921 133 0.5257 0.8002
FNO 70 27 0.3857 1.0455 0.82 43 0.6143 0.8593
FON 293 106 0.3618 0.9807 0.9198 160 0.5461 0.9423
FPK 585 195 0.3333 0.9034 0.8017 310 0.5299 0.8912
FPX 161 72 0.4472 1.2121 0.864 104 0.646 0.8463
FTP 24 7 0.2917 0.7907 0.625 16 0.6667 1.1354
GFX 36 11 0.3056 0.8283 0.7444 20 0.5556 0.8778
GGX 1473 564 0.3829 1.0379 0.8423 890 0.6042 0.8827
GIL 44 14 0.3182 0.8625 0.9545 18 0.4091 0.8045
GPR 135 49 0.363 0.9839 0.8848 78 0.5778 0.9948
GPX 811 269 0.3317 0.8991 0.8348 443 0.5462 0.8866
GRP 113 48 0.4248 1.1514 0.9088 81 0.7168 1.0801
HAW 839 291 0.3468 0.94 0.8292 473 0.5638 0.9018
HOL 1051 402 0.3825 1.0368 0.8997 622 0.5918 0.8892
HOO 635 235 0.3701 1.0032 0.8608 355 0.5591 0.8654
HOU 261 98 0.3755 1.0178 0.8073 148 0.567 0.8412
HPO 39 17 0.4359 1.1815 1.0641 23 0.5897 1.0641
HST 715 263 0.3678 0.9969 0.8555 413 0.5776 0.8699
IND 716 263 0.3673 0.9956 0.8305 431 0.602 0.9189
JRM 2 2 1 2.7105 1.7 2 1 1.225
KDX 33 15 0.4545 1.2319 1.2061 22 0.6667 1.1909
KEE 310 113 0.3645 0.988 0.9903 156 0.5032 0.8705
KIN 16 2 0.125 0.3388 0.3531 5 0.3125 0.5625
KSP 9 4 0.4444 1.2046 0.9556 7 0.7778 1.2333
LAD 946 329 0.3478 0.9427 0.8252 522 0.5518 0.8662
LAX 509 186 0.3654 0.9904 0.7601 296 0.5815 0.8539
LBG 160 47 0.2938 0.7964 0.7306 86 0.5375 0.9728
LNN 392 140 0.3571 0.9679 0.8945 217 0.5536 0.9301
LRL 1103 467 0.4234 1.1476 0.9493 679 0.6156 0.9028
LSX 614 247 0.4023 1.0904 0.8915 387 0.6303 0.9385
MCX 3 0 0 0 0 2 0.6667 1.1
MDX 297 86 0.2896 0.785 0.7401 146 0.4916 0.8493
MIL 8 1 0.125 0.3388 0.4063 5 0.625 1.025
MNR 2243 851 0.3794 1.0284 0.8222 1319 0.5881 0.8903
MPM 15 7 0.4667 1.265 1.0067 12 0.8 1.32
MTH 1048 393 0.375 1.0164 0.9085 613 0.5849 0.9221
NPX 869 302 0.3475 0.9419 0.8754 486 0.5593 0.941
ONE 3 1 0.3333 0.9034 0.5667 2 0.6667 0.7
OPX 517 159 0.3075 0.8335 0.8044 249 0.4816 0.8418
PEN 1909 741 0.3882 1.0522 0.9048 1070 0.5605 0.8697
PHA 2098 805 0.3837 1.04 0.8696 1246 0.5939 0.8982
PID 954 329 0.3449 0.9349 0.8172 539 0.565 0.8804
PIM 315 123 0.3905 1.0585 0.8825 196 0.6222 0.9267
PLN 179 61 0.3408 0.9237 0.7453 106 0.5922 0.8804
PMX 576 243 0.4219 1.1436 0.8844 349 0.6059 0.8601
PNL 346 118 0.341 0.9243 0.7876 180 0.5202 0.921
POD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRM 810 321 0.3963 1.0742 0.8578 479 0.5914 0.8948
PRV 26 9 0.3462 0.9384 0.8154 13 0.5 0.8269
RDX 806 349 0.433 1.1737 0.8762 534 0.6625 0.9321
RET 151 42 0.2781 0.7538 0.698 78 0.5166 0.8947
RIL 56 14 0.25 0.6776 0.6036 30 0.5357 0.9411
RPX 663 226 0.3409 0.924 0.8094 374 0.5641 0.914
RUI 349 136 0.3897 1.0563 0.8633 210 0.6017 0.9021
RUP 7 3 0.4286 1.1617 0.8286 5 0.7143 0.7786
SAC 129 40 0.3101 0.8405 0.6915 78 0.6047 0.8915
SAR 450 146 0.3244 0.8793 0.8236 235 0.5222 0.8541
SAX 625 228 0.3648 0.9888 0.8529 357 0.5712 0.8783
SDY 40 13 0.325 0.8809 0.565 25 0.625 0.9425
SND 7 1 0.1429 0.3873 0.3071 2 0.2857 0.3643
SON 8 6 0.75 2.0329 1.75 6 0.75 1.2375
SRP 333 115 0.3453 0.9359 0.8063 188 0.5646 0.8824
SRX 122 47 0.3852 1.0441 0.9369 74 0.6066 0.9537
STK 26 10 0.3846 1.0425 0.85 15 0.5769 0.8481
SUD 30 11 0.3667 0.994 0.8767 19 0.6333 1.0633
SUF 977 401 0.4104 1.1124 0.8654 614 0.6285 0.8921
SUN 540 186 0.3444 0.9335 0.7966 276 0.5111 0.8131
TAM 955 332 0.3476 0.9422 0.8418 533 0.5581 0.9155
TDN 1108 487 0.4395 1.1913 0.894 718 0.648 0.8939
TIL 31 12 0.3871 1.0492 0.9161 20 0.6452 1.0871
TIM 67 30 0.4478 1.2138 0.8791 43 0.6418 0.9455
TPX 861 287 0.3333 0.9034 0.861 466 0.5412 0.9023
TUP 1327 473 0.3564 0.966 0.7696 778 0.5863 0.8475
UNX 13 7 0.5385 1.4596 0.9462 10 0.7692 0.9769
WOX 1779 560 0.3148 0.8533 0.7852 930 0.5228 0.8528
WRD 329 118 0.3587 0.9723 0.8368 177 0.538 0.8356
WWX 14 4 0.2857 0.7744 0.5714 8 0.5714 0.9214
YAV 239 93 0.3891 1.0547 0.8176 140 0.5858 0.8437
YDX 41 14 0.3415 0.9256 0.8829 27 0.6585 1.0195
ZIA 319 110 0.3448 0.9346 0.7624 194 0.6082 0.9154
************************************************** **************************************
114 Track Codes from file: StarterHistory Table
************************************************** **************************************





-jp

.

[davew]

progression systems can not turn a losing ROI into a winning one


they can prolong how long it takes to go busto bad

[jamey1977]

That's the dillemma . Do we lose everything waiting for Longshots or get a high percentage of our Bankroll back betting and winning on Favorites ? . My choice is the Favorites. They frickin lose a lot. But remember if you can work and work and study and study. It is possible to put down 40 Win Plays a month and win 20 of them at a 5 dollar average. Many are doing it.It might be 28 people across the Country. But 28 are doing it. Also take the 6 to 5's and win more than half, another way. Frickin difficult, so many 6 to 5's lose. But if there are 40 - 6 to 5 win plays that you play a month on 3 different race tracks. And I mean strong 6 to 5's. These horses meet all of the elimination rules, they are strong . If you can win 25 of them at a 4 dollar 20 cent average . That's 25 dollars. 200 dollars to win, that's 2500 dollars a month . Forget progression. I tried that. I waited 2 weeks for the strongest 6 to 5. that there was. There he was. Put 260 dollars to win and guess what. The S.O.B lost. Win more than half 6 to 5's. It's not easy.

[toussaud]

40 win plays a month? lol hell that was yesterday


I can honestly say, and this is just me, the more I play, the more i generally could care less what the tote board says outside of rather it's value or not. I don't judge if i could consider a horse based off how much play he is or is not getting. I have no qualms in the least bit about playing a 30-40 to 1 shot if i like him. And yes I lose often, but i hit a few too. I hit a 32 to 1 shot last year that made my entire hollywood park meet.

I think that might be the hardest thing for a young handicapper to do, to not be swayed by the public. We've all been there. played a horse that you should not have becuase everyone else has played him, or tossed a horse that you liked becuase he was "cold on the board". I make my selections on my handicapping and my handicapping alone. Then I look at the tote to see if it's a viable play or not

[Robert Goren]

That's the dillemma . Do we lose everything waiting for Longshots or get a high percentage of our Bankroll back betting and winning on Favorites ? . My choice is the Favorites. They frickin lose a lot. But remember if you can work and work and study and study. It is possible to put down 40 Win Plays a month and win 20 of them at a 5 dollar average. Many are doing it.It might be 28 people across the Country. But 28 are doing it. Also take the 6 to 5's and win more than half, another way. Frickin difficult, so many 6 to 5's lose. But if there are 40 - 6 to 5 win plays that you play a month on 3 different race tracks. And I mean strong 6 to 5's. These horses meet all of the elimination rules, they are strong . If you can win 25 of them at a 4 dollar 20 cent average . That's 25 dollars. 200 dollars to win, that's 2500 dollars a month . Forget progression. I tried that. I waited 2 weeks for the strongest 6 to 5. that there was. There he was. Put 260 dollars to win and guess what. The S.O.B lost. Win more than half 6 to 5's. It's not easy.I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.

[toussaud]

I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.
i tend to agree with this. mainly becuase of the philosophy behind the reasoning. you can't be timid and at the same time actually turn a profit/be a successful handicapper. As simplistic as it sounds, to make money, you actually have to make wagers.

It actually took me quite a while to figure that out.

[Capper Al]

Donald Sullivan had a system where one would eliminate the false favorite. Basically, you would look at a few factors like days since last raced, and speed, etc. Your top selection would be a bona fide good to bet horse if it became the favorite, else you would skip the race. I missed place my book. But I remember it to be a fun system with lots of action. If memory serves me right, it played about half the races.

[jamey1977]

I think that falls into the urban myth category. I have never meet or even heard of anyone doing that. I have met a few handicappers who live off their winnings and they all bet a lot of races, not all of the races, but a lot.
I thought about this in 1994. Take the Even Money - 6 to 5's and 4 to 5's. Handicap and work. I mean, work. Win more than half there's your profit. It can be done. Damn hard, so many elimination rules. These horses put the ose in lose. But I am sure there has to be competent handicappers who can win half at 4.60. My theory is win more than half. Say 30 6 to 5's even,4 to 5's- No 3 to 5's or lower , win 19, There's the profit. 16 dollars but the bets could be 400 to win. - 3200 net profit a month. Will not risk tapping out. 15 thousand bankroll would never be threatened. Someone has to be doing this. I am starting. But this is as hard as hell. It takes work.

[cnollfan]

Thanks, JP. Good stuff.

[Lasix67]

The joy of this sport for me is finding horses with a price and playing against the odds.

[formula_2002]

from Jeff P post
Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 95955.90 100791.80 101829.80
Bet -113452.00-113452.00-113452.00
Gain -17496.10 -12660.20 -11622.20

Wins 20928 32766 39781
Plays 56726 56726 56726
PCT .3689 .5776 .7013

ROI 0.8458 0.8884 0.8976
Avg Mut 4.59 3.08 2.56


It would seem that regardless of the favorite's win %, it still wins inaccordance with it's odds.
ave odds = 1.295., 1/2.295 = .435 win probability., divide that by the total book, say 1.22 and that = an expected win % of = 35.65

[benzer]

All the assumptions and stats on favorites look great on paper. I don't discourage betting on favorites, sometimes that is the best wager. But, to be real, hanging your hat on a stat that can and will often change after you can no longer place a wager is a gamble.

[showbet]

Do favorites still win 33% of the time? It seems like now at many tracks it is more like 40%.
Yesterday at Northlands Park 100% of the favorites won. They ran 10 races and the favorite won each one of them.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I thought about this in 1994. Take the Even Money - 6 to 5's and 4 to 5's. Handicap and work. I mean, work. Win more than half there's your profit. It can be done. Damn hard, so many elimination rules. These horses put the ose in lose. But I am sure there has to be competent handicappers who can win half at 4.60. My theory is win more than half. Say 30 6 to 5's even,4 to 5's- No 3 to 5's or lower , win 19, There's the profit. 16 dollars but the bets could be 400 to win. - 3200 net profit a month. Will not risk tapping out. 15 thousand bankroll would never be threatened. Someone has to be doing this. I am starting. But this is as hard as hell. It takes work.

One might naturally feel that way. And maybe there are a select few that could do it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of very good handicappers that could pick 50% winners but they'd likey be betting 1/5 to 2/5 shots, not 4/5 to 6/5 shots.

[dav4463]

Yesterday at Northlands Park 100% of the favorites won. They ran 10 races and the favorite won each one of them.


This is the kind of example I'm seeing happen a lot. Not 10 in a row normally, but at least three or four every day. Logic would say that if you play six strong plays in a row (not all the favorites on the card of course, but the ones you've handicapped), it would be hard to lose six in a row.....especially if you are pretty good at determining which favorites look beatable.

I know if a favorite has not won on a card; you can't say the favorite is "due", because every race is a separate entity. However, if you see that no favorites have won in the first three or four races; chances are a favorite is going to win at least one race today.

Following the 1-1-2-4-8-16 unit bet and then stopping when you hit one really shouldn't be all that hard.......that is until you do it with real money I guess! :)

[windoor]

I have a UDM that hits at 42% and loses money over time. Not very many plays considering I’m looking at all North American tracks.

If I only played horses that went off at 2 to 1 or less the win percent goes up to 60 percent and shows a small profit. A 200 flat win wager would return about $3400 profit for this year so far, and if you wanted to hit it hard you could go $1,000 to win for a 17,000 profit on the year plus rebates. Maybe 35K a year if it holds up.

Not going to get rich here, but I think it may be a viable way to go. I have not really tweaked it much but If I only played select tracks, I might get the numbers to look a little better.

Regards,

Windoor.

[Robert Fischer]

My choice is the Favorites.
They frickin lose a lot. But remember if you can work and work and study and study.

It is possible to put down 40 Win Plays a month and win 20 of them at a 5 dollar average.

Many are doing it.
It might be 28 people across the Country.
But 28 are doing it.

WHOA! You have an energetic writing style, and at times i get overwhelmed reading. The spaces added are mine, just to break up thoughts a little so i can catch up with my slow thinking! :ThmbUp:

So far I am with you bro!:ThmbUp:
I can't verify your count of players who using this specific method of wagering. I'm not sure if you are saying "28" is "many" or if you are just throwing out a simplified example for us. It's not really a big deal.

I do agree with your premise or idea that you can hit 50% winners on 3-2 shots(3/2=$5horses).
That is a really nice edge to be proud of. That means for every dollar you wager, you are gonna win 25cents. Or like they say in the DRF, your $2.00 "flat bet"(no "bumpy" bets please!)... your $2.00 flat bet ROI will be $2.50!

ALSO - should be very proud of your 40 win plays a month at these odds! If you play 5 days a week, this means you will have found 2 plays every day!
That may not seem like much with all of the simulcasting, but it is pretty damn good!!! considering how picky we had to be to get these good plays! I think you are probably a lot like me. And we probably both have kind of the same goals so I wouldn't be surprised if you knew that I was willing to work 6 days a week. Be honest I bet you thought along the same lines before i even typed that out??

We are willing to WORK AND STUDY HARDER:ThmbUp::ThmbUp: and we love the game:ThmbUp:. We only have to come up with 5 plays every three days average. Just do what I do with 3-2 shots that pay $5 and every 6 days we have 10 plays and win 5 of them. Sure a lot of them are bet down late and I wager 30 of these and hit 15 at $3.60 average. Thats only 90 dollars for every franklin face wagered. Luckily I wager 60 races on average 3dollar average mutual and win 42 of them. It must be that these heavy late money is inside info or one of the many guys like you is stepping on my turf with smart money and driving my price down. :mad: However these 14 out of 20 winners at 3 dollar average earn me 5 cents for each dollar so it may not be easy but it's hard work.




These horses meet all of the elimination rules, they are strong . If you can win 25 of them at a 4 dollar 20 cent average . That's 25 dollars. 200 dollars to win, that's 2500 dollars a month.
I want to warn you about the elimination rules:
when making a living by betting favorites and using a set of rules to find your 3-2 shots that win half of the time, elimination rules can be one of the hardest ways to go about this. A lot of the rules involve things that the public can look at if they want to. You can fall into a trap, where the rules become worthless, and it becomes a matter of whether the "crowd" decides to bet aggressively or not (kinda like a bull or bear market). If the crowd gets pumped up and the public goes like a wild bull after the favorite you might get gored!!! If the public "SLEEPS" and doesn't bet a perfectly good 3-2 shot that should be EVEN MONEY!, you get your $5 winner half the time, just breath deeply and don't go crazy worrying about why he is "dead on the board"!!! :eek::eek:
Also note which tracks keep burning you with LATE MONEY turning your $5 into anything less than the magic number $4.

KEEP UP THE HARD WORK. LET ME KNOW HOW IT GOES!

[Bill Cullen]

The good thing about favorites and odds in general is that it lets you measure expectations versus actual results.

Jeez, some of you guys on this thread sound like donkeys wearing straw hats and chewing hay. And I'm talking about some pretty intelligent guys whom i've read before in other forums and whom I immensely respect.

Bill C

[benzer]

The good thing about favorites and odds in general is that it lets you measure expectations versus actual results.

Jeez, some of you guys on this thread sound like donkeys wearing straw hats and chewing hay. And I'm talking about some pretty intelligent guys whom i've read before in other forums and whom I immensely respect.

Bill C
Donkeys? Come on Bill say it's not that bad. Please expand on the donkey comment. I hope I'm not one of the donkeys. :rolleyes:

[MMM59]

Since in theory, I am playing against you all. I whole-heartedly support all
of your betting favorite's techniques and encourage you to keep on pounding them. They win everyday.

[dav4463]

My normal play is a horse at 9-1 or higher (preferably higher) and 6-1 or higher in a short field (7 or less horses).

However, seeing a string of losers while I watched horses romp home and pay $5.20, $4.80, $5.20, $3.60, and $5.40....well you get the idea......Maybe I also need a way to capitalize on these type horses when the shots just aren't coming in....that's why I started this thread....mainly out of frustration!

[Robert Goren]

Donkeys? Come on Bill say it's not that bad. Please expand on the donkey comment. I hope I'm not one of the donkeys. :rolleyes:A donkey is a poker term. It used to describe a player who knows a little(or maybe quite a bit) about the the game, but still makes a lot of dumb plays because faulty reasoning.

[dnlgfnk]

My normal play is a horse at 9-1 or higher (preferably higher) and 6-1 or higher in a short field (7 or less horses).

However, seeing a string of losers while I watched horses romp home and pay $5.20, $4.80, $5.20, $3.60, and $5.40....well you get the idea......Maybe I also need a way to capitalize on these type horses when the shots just aren't coming in....that's why I started this thread....mainly out of frustration!

dav...
I attempt to upgrade higher odds horses like you've described, while downgrading favorites, all within the context of my preferred trip handicapping approach. Borrowing from the most successful player I've read about however (Benter), I try to arrive at truer objective odds by incorporating public odds into my trip approach.
That is, I try to envision a horse's past races, compared to today's potential trip, in accordance with the M/L or my expected public odds, i.e., looking for trip factors which support the public's expectations. Then I replay the past race(s), and today's potential trip, in light of my speculative (but reasonable) upgrading of longer odds horses, in the hope that the true interpretation of trips, and therefore the true odds are somewhere between.

[pondman]

I'm so opposed to betting horses with low odds.

Just need to say-- save your money for a decent shot.

[benzer]

A donkey is a poker term. It used to describe a player who knows a little(or maybe quite a bit) about the the game, but still makes a lot of dumb plays because faulty reasoning.
Thanks for the clarification of the term Robert. I never heard the word used in that context before. :ThmbUp:

[pondman]

My normal play is a horse at 9-1 or higher (preferably higher) and 6-1 or higher in a short field (7 or less horses).

It's much lighter on your emotions to bet 10 horses and have 2 horses win at 9-1, than to dump 17K and be ahead $1,000 at the end of the year. If your ROI stays positive for the year-- stick with the homeruns. Keep in mind, if you hit a 40-1 shot, you can continue to play consistently for a few months (at least I could.)

I'm not quite as restrictive as you. My line is 4-1. I think you are doing it right, which probably means you know what it feel like to make 17K on $200. This is a much better route.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

The 1-1-2-4-8 etc... plan doesn't really work if payoffs are less than $4.

The idea is that any win along the way will put you ahead, or at least even...but if you bet $2, lose, bet $2, lose, bet $4 lose, bet $8 and win -but the horse only pays $3.00 to win you have only made back $4 of your losses to that point.

It 'works' - in theory - for games like 21 and roulette because most of the time you either lose or double your money.

[castaway01]

One might naturally feel that way. And maybe there are a select few that could do it. Unfortunately, there are plenty of very good handicappers that could pick 50% winners but they'd likey be betting 1/5 to 2/5 shots, not 4/5 to 6/5 shots.

Good point Steve, that's a more realistic assessment of the situation. The other problem, of course, being that these horses tend to get piled on late, so you could bet that 6-5 with 1 minute to post and the horse ends up 3-5. There goes your very, very slim margin for profit.

Trying to beat this game with 6-5 shots is very, very, very close to impossible. Maybe not totally impossible with rebates for someone out there, but very, very close to impossible. There's just no margin for error---I don't care how many rules and eliminations you have.

[CBedo]

The 1-1-2-4-8 etc... plan doesn't really work if payoffs are less than $4.

The idea is that any win along the way will put you ahead, or at least even...but if you bet $2, lose, bet $2, lose, bet $4 lose, bet $8 and win -but the horse only pays $3.00 to win you have only made back $4 of your losses to that point.

It 'works' - in theory - for games like 21 and roulette because most of the time you either lose or double your money.This is called a martingale system and is a disaster of a betting system. You are always chasing to win one unit.

Martingale Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system))

[vegasone]

One BIG problem I see is figuring out who is going to be the favorite nowadays. (not sure if anybody mentioned this)

The other day got screwed betting several horses that were decent odds early. One was around 5 or 6 to one when bet....bet down to maybe 3/1 .. OK no problem. Looked up as they were coming around the track and is 1/1...ouch..they did win but not much money in that.

[jamey1977]

Good point Steve, that's a more realistic assessment of the situation. The other problem, of course, being that these horses tend to get piled on late, so you could bet that 6-5 with 1 minute to post and the horse ends up 3-5. There goes your very, very slim margin for profit.

Trying to beat this game with 6-5 shots is very, very, very close to impossible. Maybe not totally impossible with rebates for someone out there, but very, very close to impossible. There's just no margin for error---I don't care how many rules and eliminations you have.
Damn difficult. But if we have some solid D.Q rules. I know why 6 to 5's lose. So many reasons. I have 40 written down. Layoff- 11-12 horse field- 6 month break within last 3 races- Dirt To Turf- Turf To Dirt- slow speed, I have 40 of these. A horse that meets all of these 40 D.Q rules and is bet.You have a pretty damn good, strong horse. I have done a run for a month and got 46 wins out of 61. From 4 different circuits- Woodbine- New York- North And South Calif. At 4.10 average. A handsome profit. This takes a damn long time to do. I have to go to Brisnet and go through all of the past performances. A long time. It's not that hard to get more than half at 4 dollars. It is within reach. And yes, every damn 6 to 5 that pulls a boner , check the D.Q rules. It's the usual suspects. Layoff, more than 6 month break going back last 3 races, Foreign shipper, other coast shipper. The Usual Suspects.

[dav4463]

Damn difficult. But if we have some solid D.Q rules. I know why 6 to 5's lose. So many reasons. I have 40 written down. Layoff- 11-12 horse field- 6 month break within last 3 races- Dirt To Turf- Turf To Dirt- slow speed, I have 40 of these. A horse that meets all of these 40 D.Q rules and is bet.You have a pretty damn good, strong horse. I have done a run for a month and got 46 wins out of 61. From 4 different circuits- Woodbine- New York- North And South Calif. At 4.10 average. A handsome profit. This takes a damn long time to do. I have to go to Brisnet and go through all of the past performances. A long time. It's not that hard to get more than half at 4 dollars. It is within reach. And yes, every damn 6 to 5 that pulls a boner , check the D.Q rules. It's the usual suspects. Layoff, more than 6 month break going back last 3 races, Foreign shipper, other coast shipper. The Usual Suspects.

You should have someone write a computer program that checks these 40 rules. Is that possible to do?

[mannyberrios]

Or if you can post these 40 rules, would like to see it!

[windoor]

All is possible when you want to check a possible play as long as there is data available that has the information in it that you require.

The problem is, most (or all?) of the database software out there was done by a handicapper with there own personal factor list as the basis for research.

There are few exceptions I think (I have a very good one) but even then, I had to have Harry (H/Cap) build be four different Excel programs to get what I needed to filter for my personal spot/angle plays.

I am oh so glad he did, as I have learned very much about my plays over the last few months and continue to develop more plays.

There is never a guarantee that things will work going forward, but if it showed a nice profit over the last two years, I think it makes for a very good place to start. At least it can tell you what not to play, and that alone is worth the effort.

Regards,

Windoor.

[TheGhostOfOscarB]

Piece of wisdom for the day, courtesy of "Now We Know Why He Works For A Living Inc." (c) 2011

Favorites lose for the same reasons any horse loses.

[crestridge]

Some handicapping software programs have "volatility numbers" to identify which races are more likely (statistically, speaking) to produce either a favorite or a longer priced horse. These kinds of numbers help. However, we all know the more horses in the race will decrease (statistically speaking) the chance of a fav winning, due to many factors, but ultimately, there's more chaos, etc. in increased numbers of "bodies" vying for the winners circle. Hence when making decisions with one's strategy, whether attempting to win with favs, medium or longshots, one might want to consider chaos, etc. into one's decisions for race investment.

[misscashalot]

Some handicapping software programs have "volatility numbers" to identify which races are more likely (statistically, speaking) to produce either a favorite or a longer priced horse. These kinds of numbers help. However, we all know the more horses in the race will decrease (statistically speaking) the chance of a fav winning, due to many factors, but ultimately, there's more chaos, etc. in increased numbers of "bodies" vying for the winners circle. Hence when making decisions with one's strategy, whether attempting to win with favs, medium or longshots, one might want to consider chaos, etc. into one's decisions for race investment.

Keeping records can't be beat
so far at Saratoga

Inner Turf first 2 bet choices win 35/70 .500
Main Turf 34/81 .419
Dirt 110/185 .594 (not counting off the turf)
Off The Turf 22/31 .709

2 racing days to take advantage of the numbers

[TrifectaMike]

Damn difficult. But if we have some solid D.Q rules. I know why 6 to 5's lose. So many reasons. I have 40 written down. Layoff- 11-12 horse field- 6 month break within last 3 races- Dirt To Turf- Turf To Dirt- slow speed, I have 40 of these. A horse that meets all of these 40 D.Q rules and is bet.You have a pretty damn good, strong horse. I have done a run for a month and got 46 wins out of 61. From 4 different circuits- Woodbine- New York- North And South Calif. At 4.10 average. A handsome profit. This takes a damn long time to do. I have to go to Brisnet and go through all of the past performances. A long time. It's not that hard to get more than half at 4 dollars. It is within reach. And yes, every damn 6 to 5 that pulls a boner , check the D.Q rules. It's the usual suspects. Layoff, more than 6 month break going back last 3 races, Foreign shipper, other coast shipper. The Usual Suspects.

One of the most least known item about favorite is the level of competiveness of the favorite's last race.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[crestridge]

misscash

Very good! Very wise advice!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Piece of wisdom for the day, courtesy of "Now We Know Why He Works For A Living Inc." (c) 2011

Favorites lose for the same reasons any horse loses.I have a question. Why did you suddenly "wake up?"

[Capper Al]

One can't ignore favorites. Generally, a favorite is the horse with most of the good figures: speed, pace, class, trainer, jockey etc. I saw a system once that capitalized on this premise. They set up a criteria for flawless attributes-- a horse without a bad figure anywhere. Then if this horse became the favorite, they bet it. I never followed up on this system, but am always watching not to bet against favorites of this type.

[misscashalot]

Keeping records can't be beat
so far at Saratoga

Inner Turf first 2 bet choices win 35/70 .500
Main Turf 34/81 .419
Dirt 110/185 .594 (not counting off the turf)
Off The Turf 22/31 .709

2 racing days to take advantage of the numbers


Sep 5th Final Day at Saratoga Rained yesterday

Following races off the turf

1st Post Time 12:30
5th
6th
11th

[misscashalot]

Sep 5th Final Day at Saratoga Rained yesterday

Following races off the turf

1st Post Time 12:30 Fav $4.80
5th 2nd Bet choice $11.00
6th Out
11th Fav $4.30

25/35 .714 for the meet

Must remember for 2012 ;)

[pondman]

. Do we lose everything waiting for Longshots or get a high percentage of our Bankroll back betting and winning on Favorites ? .

Can't take up another hobbie while sitting at the track waiting for the longhsot?


I think betting on what the crowd hands you is tragic, as in pathetic.

At least spend some time eliminating false favorites...

[pondman]

One can't ignore favorites.

Doesn't mean you should bet them. Might be wiser in the long run to skip the race.

[misscashalot]

Doesn't mean you should bet them. Might be wiser in the long run to skip the race.
A constant diet of indiscriminately betting fav to win can be
precarious to your pocketbook.
Betting 2nd bet choices to win a bit less lethal.
However using either or both, when you have the edge, in exotics is fruitful.
Don't summarily discard low price horses.
Do your homework.

[jamey1977]

You should have someone write a computer program that checks these 40 rules. Is that possible to do?
Very difficult- The only problem is when we are betting live is breaking the rules because of a supposed sure thing. Every time a rule is broken, a huge risk of a loss can happen. The rules are solid. Favorites lose all of the time because of them. A horse going 4 races back a huge 6 month layoff between the races and no wins after the layoff. D.Q- they will choke- Also the 3rd win in a row rule. A horse going for his 3rd win in a row. It's hard to get that 3rd win. They will lose. Hell at Golden Gate- 3 of them lost on Sunday -, the same rule. I think the wire to wire horse won. But still lost the other 3. I always said just 47 official plays for the month. A little more than half wins, there's your profit. Just 28 wins from 47. That's 18 dollars- 300 dollars to win-2700 dollars profit. The only hard thing is getting discouraged. Being 1 for 8 over 4 days is awful. We all doubt our ability and start to feel like losers. We all have to hang in there and ride the plays out. Can win 6 in a row, real easy with all of these rules.Many many races are passed.Playing on 4 different circuits. Many tend to forget winning 6 even moneys in a row is the same as a 6 to 1 winner. And the best thing is with the even money's is we get our capital back. Even betting second picks,, can still lose a lot and be down 9, the evens at least we can get the money back, waiting for that streak.

[Capper Al]

Doesn't mean you should bet them. Might be wiser in the long run to skip the race.

Might be wiser, but hard to resist playing against a favorite.