skipaway100
07-27-2011, 06:13 AM
http://www.formscore.com/free0727.pdf
Colonial Downs - 2nd Race - 5.5 Furlongs Turf
#1 Lipstick Traces - 33 sprint top dirt last time out. Negative move likely. Best numbers on turf 27. Probably where he is here. Might still be good enough to compete.
#2 Mi Buena Vida - 32 top turf sprint off the layoff. 30-32 a good range here. That'll look good after checking out the rest of this field.
#3 Cat N Caboodle - 27 turf sprint in early May. Hasn't been able to get back to it. Likely his ceiling in this spot.
#4 Copper River Quest - 24 dirt sprint top. Would need another big move forward on the turf to win here. 5 weeks rest since that last one. I would not completely rule out another move forward here from this lightly raced animal. I like how quickly he came back and moved forward off that previous poor performance, she definently has room to row.
#5 Hot May Fire - Finally made debut as a 5 year old. 11 turf top. Toss.
#6 La Champion - Older mare hasn't done anything in 3 years. 20-23 range. Toss.
#7 Wekiva's Beauty - Made debut a couple weeks ago. 20 turf sprint Could improve 2nd time out, but likely not enough. Not a big fan of horses taking this long to make their debuts
#8 Lil Cyd - Another one that took a long time to get to the game. Struggled to finish races this winter. Managed a 24 last time. But here's something interesting, she ran a 45 early speed figure, and that was in a 6.5 furlong race (shortening up here)! She didn't show any of that early speed in those winter races. There might be more to this Artax/Tale Of The Cat mare than meets the eye.
#9 Midsummer's Eve - Big 33 at 5 furlongs at Pimlico. Hasn't gotten back to there, (reacted to a 29 in his last). Not a super pattern for further growth (33 is probably very close to his ceiling), but he should run in the upper half of his range IMO. 27-30 likely.
Contenders
#1 Lipstick Traces (3-1)
#2 Mi Buena Vida (9/5)
#4 Copper River Quest (20-1)
#8 Lil Cyd (20-1)
#9 Midsummer's Eve (5-1)
Here's what I'm doing. I'm keying the two longshots here, #4 Copper River Quest and Lil Cyd (20-1) in the top two exacta spots with the other contenders (1,2,9). Both of them have some potential that is flying under the radar. If either make a forward move they are competitive. I give both of them a 30% chance running upper 20s here, combined that's a 51% chance that ONE of them can do it. They are getting 9-10 pounds from the favorite. If either can hit the board we are looking at a nice score.
$2 exacta 4,8 w/ 1,2,9 - $12
$2 exacta 1,2,9 w 4/8 - $12
Colonial Downs - 2nd Race - 5.5 Furlongs Turf
#1 Lipstick Traces - 33 sprint top dirt last time out. Negative move likely. Best numbers on turf 27. Probably where he is here. Might still be good enough to compete.
#2 Mi Buena Vida - 32 top turf sprint off the layoff. 30-32 a good range here. That'll look good after checking out the rest of this field.
#3 Cat N Caboodle - 27 turf sprint in early May. Hasn't been able to get back to it. Likely his ceiling in this spot.
#4 Copper River Quest - 24 dirt sprint top. Would need another big move forward on the turf to win here. 5 weeks rest since that last one. I would not completely rule out another move forward here from this lightly raced animal. I like how quickly he came back and moved forward off that previous poor performance, she definently has room to row.
#5 Hot May Fire - Finally made debut as a 5 year old. 11 turf top. Toss.
#6 La Champion - Older mare hasn't done anything in 3 years. 20-23 range. Toss.
#7 Wekiva's Beauty - Made debut a couple weeks ago. 20 turf sprint Could improve 2nd time out, but likely not enough. Not a big fan of horses taking this long to make their debuts
#8 Lil Cyd - Another one that took a long time to get to the game. Struggled to finish races this winter. Managed a 24 last time. But here's something interesting, she ran a 45 early speed figure, and that was in a 6.5 furlong race (shortening up here)! She didn't show any of that early speed in those winter races. There might be more to this Artax/Tale Of The Cat mare than meets the eye.
#9 Midsummer's Eve - Big 33 at 5 furlongs at Pimlico. Hasn't gotten back to there, (reacted to a 29 in his last). Not a super pattern for further growth (33 is probably very close to his ceiling), but he should run in the upper half of his range IMO. 27-30 likely.
Contenders
#1 Lipstick Traces (3-1)
#2 Mi Buena Vida (9/5)
#4 Copper River Quest (20-1)
#8 Lil Cyd (20-1)
#9 Midsummer's Eve (5-1)
Here's what I'm doing. I'm keying the two longshots here, #4 Copper River Quest and Lil Cyd (20-1) in the top two exacta spots with the other contenders (1,2,9). Both of them have some potential that is flying under the radar. If either make a forward move they are competitive. I give both of them a 30% chance running upper 20s here, combined that's a 51% chance that ONE of them can do it. They are getting 9-10 pounds from the favorite. If either can hit the board we are looking at a nice score.
$2 exacta 4,8 w/ 1,2,9 - $12
$2 exacta 1,2,9 w 4/8 - $12