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LottaKash
07-27-2011, 03:42 AM
For fan and player interest, I decided to do something a little different in "Our' own harness section here at PA....

Back in 1985, I bought a handicapping book entitled "Harness Racing's Winning Secrets"....It has been long out of print, and it was authored by a handicapping guru by the name of Jack Rubin.....Jack was born in 1935, so I suspect that he is not with us any longer....But, I could be wrong about that....

Rubin, was a strong advocate of tracking the horses's "Form-Cycles" (me too since)... Rubin said "There are "External Influences" on a horses's Form-Cycle, such as: Date, Track, Track Conditions, Class, Post, Trainer, and the Driver....Next you must evaluate the internal influences, which relate directly to the horse "himself"...The internal elements are demostrated by what the horse has done most recently on the racetrack within the conditions of the external elements just mentioned....so the external elements determine whether or not a horses's recent races can be judged as his current form cycle, and the internal elements determine exactly what that form cycle is, and what might be anticipated"....this week....

Me: For some of the newer players, you might want to reread the last paragraph again, up until you fully understand what Rubin said about form cycles...If you get it, go with it...I believe that almost every winning player knows knows and understands that paragraph, whether they allude to it or not...

Rubin conducted some interviews, asking some of the best drivers in the business, and many of them were the trainers as well, at the time (1985)...Asking them about what conditions or observations that would improve, regress, or keep a horse in his current form cycle....

Rubin: " Is a horse going to improve slightly in his next start ? Drastically ? Not at all ? Is he going to tail off, heading into a down or off form cycle ? While many players feel it is impossible to determine this, after digesting the Trainer-Driver interviews, you know that it is not...I believe that tracing a horse's form-development cycle is the only true way to come out on top of the game, because when you are correct you get prices, and you get consistency....Very often you are able to knock out a heavey favorite because you have anticipated correctly that he will start on his off form cycle....

Rubin, qualified his approach beforehand stating: "Each of the following interviews was conducted privately....While many of the questions were the same, or in some ways similar, no driver/trainer overheard or knew of any of the responses given by any of the others"...

"The reason for this is obvious....Any similarity in answers only gives added strength to the point made by the response...It was my intention to avoid being given responses which the driver/trainer might think were expected or proper...Sometimes, one horseman might hear a response from another and feel that it sounds like a more intelligent answer than the one would have given....The material had to ring authentic and personal in order for it to have real value"....

"All the interviews were done in the paddock at the Meadowlands in between the races...Therefore, the questions had specific as well as timely significance...The things we discussed were happening right out there on the racetrack during and in between the action of the live confrontations...With the turf flying, the perspiration and the pressure of instantaneous decisions and moves, these interviews were taken from the soldiers in the heat of combat....

===========================================

So, with each of the next few posts I will show what some of the best had to say about the why of a horse's winning and losing a race..I will feature a different driver/trainer with each successive post...

P.S. this will be a labor of love for me, as my scanner is down, and there is not one coming in the near future....I will have to type some...heehee..

It should prove informative, especially for some of the others who may not be as far along as some of us...

best,

beaucap
07-27-2011, 09:43 AM
He passed in May 1998...

http://m.lvsun.com/news/1998/may/05/prominent-horse-racing-handicapper-rubin-dies/

Bo

SchagFactorToWin
07-27-2011, 10:54 AM
Thanks, Kash. Looking forward to this.

Sinner369
07-27-2011, 11:31 AM
Thanks, Lotta.......All of us members are on the lookout for some NEW INFO that would help improve our game (picking winners).........someone else on this Forum said this before..........Most of the members are good handicappers but are still searching for that elusive "Something" that would make us Great Handicappers.

LottaKash
07-27-2011, 12:03 PM
He passed in May 1998...

http://m.lvsun.com/news/1998/may/05/prominent-horse-racing-handicapper-rubin-dies/

Bo

Thx for posting that Beaucap.....:ThmbUp:

Jack Rubin was one of my favoriite Harness authors, and he caused me a lot of thinking after reading that little book....In fact since, I don't think a year went by, that I didn't re-read his simple little book, and fail to get a little something more from it....

So, this little endeavor of a thread could be a "tribute" to a man that "gave something" to this game of ours, one that we love so much (or hate,haha)....RIP Jack Rubin...If you could hear me, I would say to you, "you touched a life with your words"...His book, while not an all comphrehensive type of work, still gave you the true essence of what it takes to win at this game, and anyone who "fully understood" the thinking of what he was trying to get across, came away all the better for it...I did.:ThmbUp:

P.S.,
Fwiw, Jack Rubin, in this book, mentioned a bunch of the great handicappers and writers of the day, thanking them for their insightful contributions to our game....alongside them, he gave thankful mention to our own Bob "Pandy" Pandolpho.... (for those who might remember them, also mentioned were: "Clocker" Adam Ferrentz, Mark Richman, Jay Bergaman, Henry Hecht, Mike Gordon, Steve Chaplin (wrote some of the best books on harness racing ever), Joe Desposito, Gerry Mastellone and of course our "Pandy"....Pandy surely was in good company, I'd day)

best,

wilderness
07-27-2011, 12:16 PM
Jack Rubin (and many others) was a member of the United States Harness Writers Association (likely the NY Chapter which has always been the largest).

As a result most everybody in the NY-USHWA circle was aware of each other.

LottaKash
07-27-2011, 04:38 PM
Now that the "summer-blahs" are upon us, with fewer and fewer types of horses that I need to play, I have a bit more time today so I will begin the interviews...
==============

I wanted to start with an accomplished Driver/Trainer, in the persona of Mike Gagliardi....Mike is no longer with us on this planet....He passed a good bit ago...But, Mike was my friend....I met Mike when he was about 17yrs old, when he lived on the Elizabeth/Hillside, NJ, border....We would go almost daily to Johnson Park, located in New Brunswick, NJ, where the Garden State Amateur Trotting Club was located....They had a 1/2 mile training track there.... Mike had a few odds and ends of horses stable there, both unbroken and old, old campaigners entrusted to his charge....Even at a very young age, Mike was a serious trainer and gave his horses his best on every level of their training....Once Mike got his (P) license to drive in real races, we would "Gypsy" around, with what he had, to places like Georgetown, DE (now long gone), Rockingham Park (gone), NH, Green Mountain Park in VT(gone), and Monticello, in lower-upstate NY ....After a few years we kinda lost touch, but I always followed Mike's well earned success....I fell in love & got married and got tired of the Gypsy-Life, haha, is what happened....In retro, I should've become a trainer like I wanted to, (haha):D .....I sorely miss those fun days...sure do...Even after all those years, when Mikey was scoring down and he happened to catch me at the rail, yelling out a clue that only we in our cirlcle back then would've know, well, he would flash me one of the old signs from those the old days, sometimes putting me onto something good in that race......
=================================

JR's intro to Mikey...

Mike Gagliardi passed the 1,500 win mark in Jan-84'...This highly competent horseman had the leading stable at the Meadowlands in 1981...He has trained numerous winners from Australia and New Zealand and has won driving titles at Pocono Downs and Liberty Bell Park...(Me, I miss that place some)...
==========================

Rubin: When driving a race, what factors tell you that your horse will have an outstanding chance to win his next race ?

MIKE: The way I determine it is how strong he's going to the wire. I take into consideration how much he was used before he got to the finish. So, basically, if you're referring to the following week, you like to have a horse finishing strongly, within himself. Maybe you parked him past the half and he got a little tired, but he still kept trying. As driver-trainer you have to determine whether the horse quit on you or did he just get a little tired.

What is the strongest such factor which might point out that a horse should win his next start ?

A horse that's been able to be used and didn't win because you ran out of racetrack. The strong part at the end is most important as far as I'm concerned. Sometime you get locked in witha horse and you just don't get out. And then, in the stretch, of course, you have a lot of horse. But, certainly, that's a false type of feeling going to the next race. You have to have a horse that was used a little bit and still finishes that way. Then you have a real good one for next week.

What do you see in other horses that tells you they will be very hard to stop next time ?

I am impressed by a closing horse. If I'm watching a race, I like to see a horse who really kicks at the end. I don't like a horse that was abused a lot. When I handicap and look at the program to figure out my competition, I try come up with some sort of strategy, whol I'd like to be behind. The horses that impress me are the ones that can close.

Were you to visit a strange track and handicap horses with which you were not familiar, what would you look for in the track program ?

For me, as I've said, it's in the closing. A lot of people feel that if a horse leaves and gets used pretty hard one week, he'll gernerally come back, and they like to play him. For me, though, it's always the horse that makes up lengths 6/8 and finishes 3/3. But it has to be within a fast quarter. I'm big on time.

What about gaining lengths as opposed to passing horses ?

It's a matter of the lengths he closed within the time period Like it was a 30 quarter and he picked up lengths. I like that. He's a good horse. You ask about how many horses he passed. A lot of times you see a horse quit, and he's passing a tired horse...I don't go by that. A lot of times a guy will say to me "He was third to Niatross and Adios Butler". But who was fourth, fifth, and sixth ? No, I don't like that.

What about a horse who closed in 27 but gained only a length while another closed in 28 but gained four lengths?

When it comes to that much of pick and choose, I go to the class of the horse. I evaluate what I think of the horses's class. You want to get into the real handicapping. Truthfully, how can you give an honest hadicapping evaluation when the track is never the same, when the wind factor is never the same ? There are nights when a quarter goes in 27 and you look at the flag,and it's blowing them home. Another night they have the wind in their face and they come a quarter in 28:4. Every horses's time id dictated by wind.
One horse may race the first quarter into the wind and he may nt even try the the rest of the way. The next horse, it doesn't bother him a bit. Then you don't realize how the humiditiy affects the track. It may not have rained recently, but it's so humid that the tracks isn't drying out.

Sometimes a horse will suck along in the stretch and finish in a very fast quarter and you don't know whether he could have done as well if he was outside.
If it comes down to that, I would rather have the horse that got out and passed a couple. In an example of a horse that finished in 27, and just followed the leader home, I would rather go to the one that finished in 28 and gained a lot of ground and passed horses.

What tells you a horse is improving or sharpening considerably ?

If he is getting a little bit better, each time he finished, going to the wire. Really, how he comes out of a race. I'm a complete horseman. You can go into the charachteristics of him scoring down and how he acts. His weight. If I look at a horse, and I'm sitting up behind him , and he's still carrying a lot of weight and he's looking good, he's getting better. But if I see him starting to tail off one week and he gets a bad mile next week, I know he's going downhill.
A horse may peak, but it's how he comes out of the race. After he finished the mile he may let you know he's real tired. He may hit the wire real flat. You may see a horse getting beat at the wire, but he's still reaching and trying. He's usually going to come out of the race good and go well next week. But when you see a horse just completely walking, well, you can only see it by watching the horses right up past the wire.

Likewise, what tells you he can be expected to tail off ?

He will let you know throught the stretch. If you didn't use him at all and all of a sudden he comes back to you going to the wire, you know that's it. You flag his tail, reach up and tap him. Usually, when he loses lengths through the stretch, after not being abused thouroughly, that's when you know they are starting to go down.
And there are so many different factors here too. You might get off him and say to the trainer, "What did you do this week?" And he might say to you, "Well, I didn't train him this week because I thought it would be better." So, we'll go back to the old schedule and you know that he's going to be better next week. At least he had an excuse; now he has to train him back. So many different factors.
A horse may win and then wind up in a class over his head. Then he keeps getting beat. All of sudden you see the horse dropping down. Now he's back to where he won, but he still can't win because he's lost his confidence. He may have won big in a $25,000 claimer...He winds up in $30,000 claimers and after losing for awhile he's back in $25,000 company...But he's lost his confidence...A horse is not a very smart animal, but they are creatures of habit. And they get used to getting beat. Also, when they do race and beat somebody, for some reason, they know it. They do know when they win and when they lose.

Why is it so tough for a horse to win and then come back with another win ?

The two biggest reasons are: one, stiffer competition, and two, to win a race it takes so much out of a horse.

What would a horse have to do for it tobe too much ? What takes too much out of him so that he not able to display similar form the next time out ?

The biggest thing that takes the most out of a horse, in my opinion, is leaving the starting gate quickly week after week. The biggest stress put on a horse is not the stretch drive baut leaving the gate. A horse that leaves hard every week doesn't race so consistently. Horses that are busting out of there are the ones that tailing off a lot quicker than the ones that race from behind, according to my experience.

What takes more out of a horse, going first-over and winning or going first-over and getting beat ?

Getting beat, no question about it. That's getting back to him losing his confidence, too. When he goes first over and wins, he comes, nine out of ten times that horse will come right back and win again the next time out.
Sometimes a horse that goes first over and gets beat is tightened by the tough trip and will come back sharp. It depends on how much it took out of him.

What are the most common signs a horse will show in a race prior to a winning mile ?

In general, I would say a horse that scores down good, got his ears up and feels good. But, on the other hand, if you know every horses's individual charachteristics, you know how he will respond accordingly. It's knowing the horse himself.

What about the week before ? What did you see the week before rather than ten minutes before the current race ?

Well, 99 out of 100 they all had pace coming to the wire...I'm afraid to leave with a horse that shows me he's starting to tail off, shows me he starting to get caught. If a horse wins, he may get beat next week, but it's a good effort and you can still see he's tailing off. But they usually don't go from first to last and the generally never go from last to first....Not unless there was a big class drop. Just like a horse peaks up to a race, he goes down the same way.

What signs in a race tell you about a horse's form cycle ?

His stretch performance in those races. But as a driver, you know. I've won with horses that were just flat at the wire. Next week they come back and race third or fourth or something. If you don't see the acutual race, if you you don't see him win, how can you know if he's tailing off ? It' unbelievable, the things that can go on from race to race and it's so much of a factor..

What do you look for in other horses you are facing to determine the live horses you have to beat ?

I would look at the odds, the morning line in the program, to see what the handicapper thinks of the horses, which ones he feels should be there. And I mostly try to find the horse that races good and that's winning races. I'm looking to follow a horse or know the horse that I have to beat, the one that's been racing consistently.
It's hard for me to say if the horse is going to be tailing off or not, but i have to go by what's on the form. Form being that the horse won or was second the week before. The most consistent horse is the one I'm looking to stay behind or know that I have to beat.
On the other hand, racing at the track every nite, I know a lot of horses. and nine out of ten times it's the knowledge of the horse that's out there. When you don't know the horses, you have to goy by the program and the consistency.
How do you handicap ?...Just catch the last quarter. Try to determine how much the horse can pace it's last quarter in.
=================================
I would like to add this.....Mikey liked to gamble...Whenever we didn't have anything in for the nite, we would always be in the grandstand, wherever we were, GAMBLING AWAY !....I miss those days...ACTION !!!
============================



Jack Rubin, later in the book, condensed the "positives" & the "negatives", by summing up each driver/trainer's responses to his questions....I will do it for each one as I go along...and the end of this interview section I will show Jack's summary, combining "all" of the D/T's positives & negatives...
=================================

MIke Gagliardi's favorable variables:

1. How strong he's going to the wire.
2. How much he was used and how he still kept going.
3. He was used and got beat because he ran out of racetrack.
4. Makes up lengths in fast quarter.
5. Finishing better each time.
6. Goes first over and wins.
7. Scores down good with ears up.
8. Fast Last quarter.

MG's unfavorable signs:

1. Abused a lot.
2. Slightly off one week and races even more poorly the next week.
3. Flat or real tired at wire.
4. Completely walking after the race.
5. If you don't use him at all and he comes back to you going to the wire.
6. Lose lengths in the stretch.
7. In over his head, getting used to being beaten.
8. Rapid early speed, leaving hard out of the gate week after week.

=======================

Next One.....William O'Donnell..Catch it...:jump:

best,

Ray2000
07-27-2011, 05:00 PM
Great Gagliardi "Favorable" - "not favorable" points, .....thanks for posting, LK

Especially Ears up or pinned down, crossing the wire in a race. (or Flagging tail)!
notes I always made in my program when at the track. (which was every day :D)

LottaKash
07-27-2011, 05:12 PM
Great Gagliardi "Favorable" - "not favorable" points, .....thanks for posting, LK

Especially Ears up or pinned down, crossing the wire in a race. (or Flagging tail)!
notes I always made in my program when at the track. (which was every day :D)

Yes Ray and thx for the thx, many other of the Driver interviews will stress the ears and tail traits as well... as you will see...in due time...my fingers are stiff..:D

best,

pandy
07-27-2011, 07:21 PM
I worked with Jack Rubin for 5 years, he was the editor of Sports Eye and he interviewed me and hired me. My interview was on Monday and I started on Tuesday. When he left Sports Eye he moved to Vegas and was doing a weekly horseracing radio show and he had me on as a guest a number of times.

I learned how to edit copy from Jack. He was a very nice guy with a great sense of humor, quite a character. We had a lot of fun at Sports Eye. I could write a book on it. We bet on anything that moved.

When he gave me my own column he told everyone to try to come up with an original name for my column and everyone came up with ideas, but Jack didn't like any of them

After a few days Jack was sitting at his desk and he suddenly said, "I got it! Pandycapping!"

I've been using it every since. That was over 30 years ago. The column is running.

beaucap
07-27-2011, 08:23 PM
I worked with Jack Rubin for 5 years, he was the editor of Sports Eye and he interviewed me and hired me. My interview was on Monday and I started on Tuesday. When he left Sports Eye he moved to Vegas and was doing a weekly horseracing radio show and he had me on as a guest a number of times.

I learned how to edit copy from Jack. He was a very nice guy with a great sense of humor, quite a character. We had a lot of fun at Sports Eye. I could write a book on it. We bet on anything that moved.

When he gave me my own column he told everyone to try to come up with an original name for my column and everyone came up with ideas, but Jack didn't like any of them

After a few days Jack was sitting at his desk and he suddenly said, "I got it! Pandycapping!"

I've been using it every since. That was over 30 years ago. The column is running.

And a Star was born.....well, a harness racing star.....and a good one...

Keep Pandycapping...:ThmbUp:

I liked your book Bob....Great Job explaining your thoughts about handicapping harness racing.

Bo

sonnyp
07-27-2011, 09:04 PM
LottaKash (member.php?u=7536)
"YHVH" rules !

image.php?u=7536&dateline=1299649883 (member.php?u=7536)

Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Dunnellon, FL.
Posts: 3,664
vCash: 400


Now that the "summer-blahs" are upon us, with fewer and fewer types of horses that I need to play, I have a bit more time today so I will begin the interviews...
==============

I wanted to start with an accomplished Driver/Trainer, in the persona of Mike Gagliardi..




hey kash,

i started this thread over a year ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=68195&highlight=gags


i'm proud to say mike was a friend and a real good heart. always, and i mean always had time for the "LITTLE GUY"

i miss him

pandy
07-27-2011, 09:42 PM
Thanks Bo.

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 01:35 AM
hey kash,

i started this thread over a year ago.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=68195&highlight=gags


i'm proud to say mike was a friend and a real good heart. always, and i mean always had time for the "LITTLE GUY"

i miss him

Sonny, I missed that thread completely....Don't recall why, but must've been for a good cause, as I would have happily chimed in, in that one...

Mikey and I really liked each other....I recall in the early days spending our nites in a cheap motel just past Monti, down the road a little ways....I don't remember the exact name of the motel, I think it was something like the Diamond Horseshoe or something....I remember sleeping with 4or5 others in that same room....You had to find your spot early if you wanted a comfy one, that is....Mikey was usually the last one home most nites...The chicks you know....We used to have a record player, and we only had 1 or 2 LP's too....The 4-Tops greatest hits seemed to be always on....They were fun times in our lives....I wish adult life could be as simple as living the backstretch life....

best,

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 01:49 AM
[QUOTE=pandy
I learned how to edit copy from Jack. He was a very nice guy with a great sense of humor, quite a character. We had a lot of fun at Sports Eye. I could write a book on it. We bet on anything that moved.

[/QUOTE]

Bob, why don't you, write that book ?....Jack learned you very well on the copy editing....

In my glory days, I ran with a similar, but less sophisticated than yours, racetrack and gambling crowd as well, at least about the betting on anything part....We bet on ourselves on or about most anything we did together...Action aplenty 24/7...haha...

Bob, you are a harness legend, I get goosebumps just thinking about you...:jump:

All kidding aside tho, thanks for your contributions to our sport....I have always been a fan....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: ...

It truly believe that people who know a thing or two about our game, should give something to it....You know, to keep it alive.....Sadly, most people don't want to hear shit about the hoss' these days...They just listen to me babble out of respect for an old guy, I guess....I usually shut up when they start yawning or get fidgety....:D

best,

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 03:53 PM
JR's 1985 bio; Bill O'Donnell is the premier drive in the sport. He has more 1:55 or faster miles to his credit than other reinsman. He has set purse earning records, winning millions of dollars. A tribute to his ability. In 1984 Billy Haughton, veteran Hall of Famer and one of the the greatest drivers of all time, used WO to catch -drive the then unbeaten Nihilator in the $2,000,000 Woodrow Wilson Pace at the Meadowlands. Haughton felt that the colt deserved the best driver in the business. Wo guided Nihilator to victory with a flawless effort.
=================================

Rubin; In the course of driving a race, what factors tell you that regardless of how the horse you are driving finishes this race, he will have an outstanding chance to win his next race ?

O' Donnell: If you happen to have your horse in the wrong place and you know it. Not at the moment. You might leave with your horse and somebody doesn't let you get around him, or something like that, and you know if you don't do that again, next time, you'll have a better chance. If you happen to to come first over and you were using him in the wrong spot. You might have someone alongside of you, forcing you in that situation. He might have left, hoping to go to the front and, all of a sudden, the guy inside of you, whom you didn't expect to leave at all, well, he's going with you.
He goes down to the quarter in 28 flat after you were expecting to go in 29, taking that much more out of you. By that time, someone else whips out of a hole, and he don't belong there either, leaving you between a rock and a hard spot. One you didn't want to let go,-but you had to. It can get done in front of you, out of the ordinary, like that.

What is the strongest such factor ? In other words, is there something which might indicate to you that this horse, barring unforeseen happenings, should win his next start ?

At the Meadowlands especially, if a horse finishes fast - still has pace at the end. If a horse finishes with pace at the Meadowlands, the next week he gets a lot of respect.

Do you ever see something in another horse which indicates to you that he will be very hard to stop next time ?

Same way, You see a guy locked in somewhere, sitting behind a dead one, and that really set him down. A big factor at the Meadowlands is, if you use a horse real hard early and he gets tired at the end, he won't comb back as one that finished swifter. At other tracks you would look for basically the same things.

Were you to handicap horses with wihich you were not familiar personally, such as in a visit to a strange track, and all you had to guide you was the track program, what specifically would you look for ? What would influence you the most in attempting to make a winning selection ? Which item could convince you that a horse had a very strong chance to win ?

Positon. How he used him. Fractions much more so than lengths. In our sport we don't get much of a chart, other than the last quarter.

What specifically, continures to sharpen a horse ? In other words, when a horse is in a race, what in his past performances tells you he is continuing to improve or sharpen considerably ?

The finish of the race. What happens early in the race, though, is a big factor. Like an athlete who has to run two miles. If he runs too hard the first part, he might tail off at the end. Like, a half-mile track is a boring thing. There's the standard things: first, second over. So I would say the horse that finishes with most pace.

Likewise, what tells you a horse is tailing off or can be expected to go downhill from here ? What signs in a horse's performance say he will showing less form ? How can you recognize this before the horse turns in that dull effort ?

Just with my experience. Sitting behind him. Knowing that you raced the horse extra tough. LIke, for example, with "GUTS" in the Oliver Wendell Holmes. Even though he came the last quarter in 26 seconds, when he pulled up he was a tired horse. Complete exhaustion. Now, if the horse raced back the following week, there would have been nothing you could have done to sharpen him back up...He was smart to given him a week off.

What would a horse have to do for it to be too much ? What would take so much out of him that he would not be able to display similar form next week ?

Depends on the horse. A fresh horse can do more than a horse who has already peaked. Like "CAM FELLA" would come back week after week even though he looked like he was done at the wire.

What takes more out of a horse going first-over winning or going first-over and getting beat? With the time about the same.

Getting beat....

Why is it so toughfor coming off a victory to win again ?

Well, that depends mostly on the competition.

What are the most common signs a horse will show in a race prior to a winning mile ? What have you seen most often in a horse in the race before he won ?

Digging in. From the head of the stretch the horse shows you he wants to dig in and go.

Would you say a last quarter is more significant than the last half ?

Yes, I would. But I'll tell you how I claimed a lot of horses at the Meadowlands. The middle half meant a lot. For example, I claimed a horse who showed three middle halves in a row in :57 in the wintertime. He might take him off the gate really bad, gapped at the quarter and then, all of sudden, here he comes. Goes the middle half like a son of a gun. Then he kind of gets a little tired in the stretch. I claimed him after two or three races back to back like that. I raced him covered up after that, and he won four, five in a row for me.

Instead of looking at his fianl half you went back to the middle half ?

His last halves were the same as his first halves because his first and last quarters were a little slow. But the middle halves were extremely fast. That's a big factor. From the quarter to the five-eighth pole is a good thing, long way to brush a horse.

What recognizable signs do you find that will tell you about a horse's form cycle ?

If he's been looking real sharp, and then all of a sudden, he drops back a little bit.

What do you loook for in the program in other horses you are facing so that you know whom you have to beat ? How do you determine, by the program's past performances, which ones are the live horses ?

You look for the form, which ones are the real live threats. The best form. If you get a horse that leaves and goes down the road every week and stops on the last turn, then you don't want to leave, let him go and then follow him. Then you'll have to come back to the front or come out of the hole at a crucial point in the race; anywhere from the 5/8-pole to the 3/4-pole. If you have to go three deep there, you're almost done...In that turn, before you slingshot yourself for that turn, that's a crucial point in the race...The Meadowlands is like no other track.

Take the average player, who cannot talk to the drivers before every race or know how their horses feel warming up. The fan who has no way of knowing how a horse came out of a race...He only has the program to guide him. What does this player need so he can determine all this information for himself ?

Accurate charts with full comments....(me; SPORTS EYE, and now replays of course

========================

JR's Summary ..Bill O' Donnell offers the following in a Positve tone for expecting that the horse might show more next time:

1. Used in the wrong spot.
2. Finishing Fast, with pace.
3. FAst fractions, especially the last quarter.
4. Digging in through the stretch.
5. Fast Middle Halves.
-----------------------------
On the negative side, WO offers some signs that a horse might be heading off form:

1. Used hard, tired badly.
2. RAced him extra tough.
3. Complete exhaustion after finish.
4. Been real sharp, then drops back a bit.

========================
Well that's it for Bill O....

Next on tap, one of my all time favorite Driver/Trainers....TED WING, a complete horseman, imo...

best,

sonnyp
07-28-2011, 04:32 PM
billy o....real canadian eh ? with all the money he made (never went for $.10, only ron waples was cheaper......both great guys) his idea of A GREAT NITE was feet up on the coffee table, a hockey game and a six pack.


toward the end he couldn't wait to disappear back into canada, and his buddy john campbell, even after the horrible injuries, can't give it up.


it's really a shame the bettors don't get to know the men behind the image. they're very, very different personalities.

mrroyboy
07-28-2011, 04:58 PM
Very nice article like always John. Newbees should read everything you write if they want to learn harness racing.

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 05:18 PM
Very nice article like always John. Newbees should read everything you write if they want to learn harness racing.

Yeah Roy, as long as they don't bet my horses....:D

best,

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 05:25 PM
billy o.....toward the end he couldn't wait to disappear back into canada, and his buddy john campbell, even after the horrible injuries, can't give it up.
.

Sonny while we are the subject of WO....I was out of the game for a few years and when I returned, he was gone....I figured he had crossed someone the wrong way and got the boot by his peers "or something" ?....Did he just pack up and leave, or was he ostracized a bit....I never knew the real story about him leaving. WAs he still on top of his game @M1 when he scooted ?

best,

sonnyp
07-28-2011, 05:46 PM
Sonny while we are the subject of WO....I was out of the game for a few years and when I returned, he was gone....I figured he had crossed someone the wrong way and got the boot by his peers "or something" ?....Did he just pack up and leave, or was he ostracized a bit....I never knew the real story about him leaving. WAs he still on top of his game @M1 when he scooted ?

best,

i met billy o when he came to saratoga before fame and fortune. i met john campbell the week before the meadowlands opened. let me compare them, both young, both talented.

billy, from the maritimes never, really, seemed to adapt to the hype. the p.r., the dealing with the trainers and owners and all was like a necessary evil to him. he would have loved just to show up and drive but he had to do the rest.

john, on the other hand, was the corporate guy. well spoken, politically correct he handled it all with grace and became the poster boy.

getting back to billy, he was the "country boy" who never liked the city. he made a ton of money and i think when he thought he had enough for a simpler life, he simply packed up and went "back home" to canada. i think he still trains a few and drives once and a while in toronto......but no more p.r., no more as- kissing, no more all the stuff it takes to stay on top.

he and john were 2 canadians that had tremendous success, at the same time in the same place but with polar opposite personalities and goals. really an interesting study.

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 06:27 PM
getting back to billy, he was the "country boy" who never liked the city. he made a ton of money and i think when he thought he had enough for a simpler life, he simply packed up and went "back home" to canada. i think he still trains a few and drives once and a while in toronto......but no more p.r., no more as- kissing, no more all the stuff it takes to stay on top.


Sonny, Thx for the further clarification about WO....And yes, he does still do a bit of training and driving, mostly for others in the Ontario Circuit...Only a little tho..

best,

wilderness
07-28-2011, 06:36 PM
let me compare them, both young, both talented.

sonny,
With all respect, IMO that's the only comparison possible.

Billy O was at the height of his career from 1981-88.
John continued afterwords, taking on all-new-challengers.

I don't have any career earnings saved on Billy O, however I seem to recall that his "moving to Toronto" was more the result of the driving colony changing at the Meadowlands and Billy not getting named on drives.

The 2004 USTA T&P lists Billy's lifetime earnings at $95,538,711 and John's at $227,114,669, which is a pretty significant difference.

I'm not denying that Billy O wasn't a great horseman in his prime, rather I'm simply saying that he didn't sustain his edge as long as JC.

sonnyp
07-28-2011, 06:37 PM
Sonny, Thx for the further clarification about WO....And yes, he does still do a bit of training and driving, mostly for others in the Ontario Circuit...Only a little tho..

best,

kash

just wanted to mention, good friend and all time good guy walter"butch"paisley came out of retirement to drive a winner last week at balmoral. 2 yo homebred trotting colt "riccolo".

kash, those were the days.

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 06:44 PM
kash

just wanted to mention, good friend and all time good guy walter"butch"paisley came out of retirement to drive a winner last week at balmoral. 2 yo homebred trotting colt "riccolo".

kash, those were the days.

Yikes Sonny, some guys don't quit....Funny thing about him, many moons ago I was driving thru from the NW coast, and stopped in the Windy, and got to Sportsmans Park with an old Freehold Buddy, and I kashed a really nice ticket with that guy doing the steering...Wow, where does the time go ?..:(

best,

wilderness
07-28-2011, 06:50 PM
from the 1974 USTA Handbook:

PAISLEY, Walter BIRTHPLACE: Berwyn, Ill.
Plainfield, Ill. BIRTHDATE: 3-10-41

Horsemen and writers from Chicago claim the 33-year-old Paisley is reminiscent of the rousing younger days of Harry Burright, Bob Farrington, Delmer Insko, Chris Boring and the late Don Busse. Each season he has gained in national stature. In 1973, Walt was 4th among North America's race winners (317) and 12th in winnings ($1,012,722). He won four Chicago race titles in 1973. Paisley's successful efforts weren't achieved overnight. He began racing at Illinois county fairs at the age of 16, and the highlight of his early years came in 1959, at age 18, when he drove his father's trotter Algiers Eblis in the Hambletonian Stake. He finished 11th in the race won by Diller Hanover. After his apprenticeship on the county fair circuit, Paisley made his pari-mutuel debut at Sportsman's Park in 1958. Paisley attributes his driving skills to Burright and Farrington, his tutors for many years.
Paisley attended Southern Illinois University for three years studying business administration. He graduated from Lyons High School in LaGrange, Ill., a few furlongs from his birthplace in Berwyn, another Chicago suburb.
Walter now lives on a 20 acre farm in Plainfield with his wife Ann, and their son Grant. The farm is co-owned by his father, a harness horse owner and trainer.

sonnyp
07-28-2011, 06:55 PM
sonny,
With all respect, IMO that's the only comparison possible.

Billy O was at the height of his career from 1981-88.
John continued afterwords, taking on all-new-challengers.

I don't have any career earnings saved on Billy O, however I seem to recall that his "moving to Toronto" was more the result of the driving colony changing at the Meadowlands and Billy not getting named on drives.

The 2004 USTA T&P lists Billy's lifetime earnings at $95,538,711 and John's at $227,114,669, which is a pretty significant difference.

I'm not denying that Billy O wasn't a great horseman in his prime, rather I'm simply saying that he didn't sustain his edge as long as JC.


i believe the difference in the 2 guys is reflected in their lifetime earnings.

billy was always "reluctant" to play the game and didn't align himself and travel with some of the top trainers and huge money earners that john did(chuck sylvester,etc).

quick story on billy's attitude. jerry silverman, one of the greatest "promoters" ever had assembled a group of investors who owned a colt jerry had been promoting as the next comming all winter long. before his first start as "part of the show", billy was brought in to go a training mile, racebike etc. to impress the group.

after pulling up,investors breathlessly huddled around, jerry asks billy "well,what ya think?", expecting gushing praise.

billy responded" i guess he's better than an empty stall". no way, john ever would respond like that and i believe it was that difference that was reflected in their bottom lines.

showbet
07-28-2011, 08:24 PM
billy was always "reluctant" to play the game...

quick story on billy's attitude. jerry silverman, one of the greatest "promoters" ever had assembled a group of investors who owned a colt jerry had been promoting as the next comming all winter long. before his first start as "part of the show", billy was brought in to go a training mile, racebike etc. to impress the group.

after pulling up,investors breathlessly huddled around, jerry asks billy "well,what ya think?", expecting gushing praise.

billy responded" i guess he's better than an empty stall". no way, john ever would respond like that and i believe it was that difference that was reflected in their bottom lines.
Seems he said what was on his mind, even on live TV.

JS3as9uB0XI

sonnyp
07-28-2011, 08:48 PM
Seems he said what was on his mind, even on live TV.

JS3as9uB0XI


billy o in a nutshell.

guy doing the interview is alan kirshenbaum, son of niteclub entertainer freddie roman. at the time he was a trainer for george berkner. he quit the business and went to live in cali with his mom. ended up writing and produccing some of the most successful sitcoms in modern tv.

billy who ????

Hanover1
07-28-2011, 08:50 PM
Seems he said what was on his mind, even on live TV.

JS3as9uB0XI


Like many of us, Billy liked his "Crown", and THAT was the big difference. We used him to TT many horses, was none better suited for the job.

LottaKash
07-28-2011, 08:56 PM
Seems he said what was on his mind, even on live TV.

[YT="O'Donnell interview"]]

That was too much....NO Shit...:lol:

best,

LottaKash
08-02-2011, 02:42 AM
Next is Ted Wing...He was one of my all time favorites both as a Driver and a Trainer....Way back when, when I thought that I knew more than I know now, he helped me keep my equilibrium when things wern't going as well as planned...haha...
===============================

Rubin Bio: Ted Wing passed the 3,000 victory milestone in 1983. He was the leading driver in New England for years and is considered among the sport's superior trainers and reinsman. He has won driving titles at Foxboro, Rockingham, Yonkers and Roosevelt and the Meadowlands, and was the second-youngest driver to reach both the 2,000 and 3,000 victory plateaus...

===============================

JR: When driving a race, how does a horse indicate to you that he will have a good chance to win his next time out ?

WING: Sometimes he will and sometimes he won't. If he has a bad trip and has pace and still finishes decently, that's an obvious sign. But if a horse races not too well and there's an equipment change, that's something else. There could be a hundred different answers to that question.

If youhad to zero in on the strongest such factor that might indicate the horse should win his next race, what would that be ?

If a horse gets a terrible trip; if he gets used hard and still is game at the wire. Or if he gets into a flow of cover that is going nowhere, swings wide and closes like hell from an impossible position. Those are the two factors I would say are most important: either overused or a bad trip.

Do you ever see something in another horse which tells you that he will be very hard to stop next time ?

No question. Yes I do. It would be the the same type of thing. Like a horse caught in, all the way to the wire. No room. And you know what type of horse he is. You know he's game enough. The guy took a calculated risk, he stayed in and didn't get out in time. You know the horse is going to be better next week. That never hurts any horse, getting caught in. Usually when a horse gets caught in, and has pace, he will be a lot braver next week.

If you were handicapping horses at a strange track, what would you look for ?

Well, first you try to pick a horse that is in form. Then, as a horseman, you would watch a horse on the racetrack. The horse scores down good, looks sound and has a capable driver. Then you'd pick that horse. You'd try to combine those three things.

What tells you a horse is continuing to improve or sharpen ?

If he's been good; if he continues to be good. If he's been racing well and he continues to go his race. There's no reason for you to think a horse is going to be any different the next week. Once in a while, as a driver-horseman, you can be driving a horse that has been good; he gets a pretty good trip and isn't quist so good as he's been. That's usually a sign that he's on the way down, declining. For instance, "Hoosier Hotshot" was second over one night. I raced him and finished second to "Rashad" in 1:52:3, and a guy said, "Gee he raced good" but I said, "He's losing form. He had to get used so hard at that speed that he was all done when he pulled up; he was completely exhausted." Sure enough, the next week he was no good. He was fourth and then he was eighth; he was on his way downhill. As a driver-horseman I can tell something nobody else can tell: I can tell when he's reached his peak and he's heading the other way, and a week ahead of time.

How does he tell you he will be tailing off ?

Weakness in deep stretch. You can't necessarily tell if a horse gets used hard. If a horse gets a real good trip and he shows a weakness to you, like on the wire, I would suspect then that he wouldn't be much good next week. No matter what you do. You can't seem to change it in seven days. If a horse was good last week, the only way you can make him bad is to overtrain. You just keep him on his schedule adn if he was good last week, he'll probably be good this week. If he started to tail off last week, he'll probably be worse the following week.

Sometimes just one race can take too much out of a horse. How can you recognize this before the horse turns in that dull effort ?

As a horseman, as I just through saying in the example of Hoosier Hotshot coming second in 1`:52:3 I didn't think he raced well. He was secon-over in the stretch, tippied him off cover, got to the front, and that was the end of him. When he pulled up, he was totally exhausted. I tried t start to jog him back and he couldn't even hit the pace. He wasn't lame, he was just totally exhausted.

How can you tell when he's exhausted: I mean by sight.?

Very tough thing. I've had some horses so lame they couldn't even score. Like "Cavendish", so lame he couldn't score and he'd still win every week. From the side, a handicapper wouldn't have a clue. You wouldn't know anything to watch him. Like watching him scoring and warming up, you wouldn't have an idea if he was good or bad. I knew by sitting behind him.

What would take so much out of horse that he would have nothing left for the following week ?

Being overused, used too hard, or being in with horses that he wasn't capable of beating or chasing. Those things, either in his correct class and being overused because of circumstances - being used too hard - would knock his form off. The other thing is being where he did not belong. He would lose his confidence. A horse loses his confidence quickly. You take a winner. Take a horse who all of a sudden won a race and he won it strong and beat up on weak horses. Usuallly that horse will get a little better the following week.

Then why is it so hard for a horse to come back after a win ?

Here (Meadowlands) it's because every race is a stakes race. The track is great now. It's as good as it's going to be at any place in the country. But what happens ? The only thing they feature now is speed. You drive a perfect car 100mph and you drive a perfect car 50mph, which is going to last longer ? That's a question with an obvious answer. If the feature here is speed, then a horse must be very strong to hold his form. That's why a horse can't hold his form forever here.

What takes more out of a horse, going first-over ans winning easily or going first-over and getting beat ?

Obviously being beaten. For a horse to come first over and win handily, he's probably in pretty cheap. If a horse comes first over and hangs real game, that means next week, if he gets a better trip, he'll probably win in the same class. The horse that comes first over and wins, if he advances, whether it be claiming or non winners, he probably isn't going to win anyway. That could be because of a class difference. Sometimes circumstances made him win: Somebody got into trouble and this horse came first over and won easily.

What have you seen most often in a horse int the race before he won ?

Strength and soundness. Most horses are lame. Most - 99 percent - are lame in varying degress. If a horse has been on one line slightly, all the time, and all of sudden he gets off the line, for whatever reason, and paces a little stronger - and he will pace stronger if he's straighter - that's a sign that he's going to continue to get better. If you had a horse that's been straight, pretty good, and all of a sudden he starts to get crooked, that's a sign he's going to the other way. I would say the biggest sign is soundness. If a horse is going straight to the wire and he's a game horse, he's going to get better.

You mean as opposed to bearing out or lugging in ?

The reason he bearing out or bearing in is because of soundness. They don't just run to the right or run to the left because they like it.

Some will bear out when they are tired ?

Some will, but usually it is pain.

What signs do you find in a series of races that tell you about a horse's form cycle ?

If a horse has been terrible and all of a sudden he gets good and he's been good for three or four starts, it's quite obvious to me, the public, and the world thta he's going to stay good for at least a while. When he starts to tail off, I think everybody will know it because they're losing money on it. Like all of sudden he'll be third or fourth instead of winning.
===============================================

Ted Wing points out some positive indications:

1. Bad trip and he finishes with pace.
2. Used hard and still game at wire.
3. Closes like hell from impossible postion.
4. Good horse gets caught in and doesn't get out in time.
5. Has been good and continues to go his race.
6. Strength and Soundness.
7. Going straight to the wire, gamely.
8. Gets good and stays good for three or four starts.

On the negative side, Wing lists:

1. Gets good trip and isn't as good as he's been.
2. Used hard and totally exhausted.
3. Weakness in deep stretch.
4. Being overused.
5. Being in with horses he isn't capable of beating.
6. Not going straight to the wire.
========================================

Next time out:....my all time fave....John Campbell

best,

pandy
08-02-2011, 07:23 AM
That's great stuff Lotta. I just ordered the book from Amazon, I think I may use some of it in one of my columns, I don't think Jack will mind, we were friends.

llegend39
08-02-2011, 07:36 AM
Available on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Harness-Racings-Winning-Secrets-Rubin/dp/0668064331

fiveouttasix
08-02-2011, 07:39 AM
Johnny C ! He was born second over...personally I don't think it is even close..best of all time. of course I am a little biased since I spent every night of my youth at the Big M!

LottaKash
08-02-2011, 10:46 AM
Available on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/Harness-Racings-Winning-Secrets-Rubin/dp/0668064331

As I have stated before in a previous post in this thread, this book isn't much in it's size, so, some may be disappointed a bit by using that measurement of a book....But, if you are looking to advance in your handicapping, and are still somewhat disorganized in your harness racing thinking, this book may well set you down on a more "winning-er" road.....It is worth the read, and re-read...Simplicity in this case, works, and works well.....

I sincerely believe that if you fully grasp the intent of Jack Rubin's Book, which is "Form-Cycle" handicapping, you will have a very solid foundation on which to apply your other valuable handicapping concepts, be it Speed, Pace, or any such numbers, as well as your own "Trainer Intentions Angles"...

I wouldn't part with this ole worn out book, for anything....I would suggest you buy the used ones tho....

best,

LottaKash
08-02-2011, 01:09 PM
I met John Campbell once, a good bit ago, (I've long since forgotten the year tho) at a seminar for the the Twin-Towers horse owner syndicate. They were hawking part ownerships for harness horses, at that event. They talked about much more than owning horses, and the drivers fielded questions about harness racing in general....John, along with Cat Manzi as well as Mike LaChance were the featured speakers at the show....

Afterwards, on a one on one basis, I got more of John's time than I had expected, about 15 minutes or so's worth....And, Mike joined in the discussion as well, and the 3 of us talked about the book "Care and Training of the Trotter and Pacer"....The Bible for any would be harness horseman....I was pleased with their candid remarks about how relevant the book was and still is, considering that it was published in 1968.....John has such "lttle hands" compared to mine that is....My wife like John as well....A very approachable guy, imo...
=========================================

JR bio: John Campbell ranks as one of the strongest drivers in the history of the game. National leading money winner in 1983, he was also the Meadowlands driving champion, with 303 wins. Campbell was the leading money winning driver in North America in 1979 and 1980, also capturing the Meadowlands championships for those years. He boasts a Little Brown Jug and Meadowlands Pace among his victories. (me: wow what he accomplished after that)
==============================================

JR: In the course of driving a race, what factors tell you that the horse you are driving has an outstanding chance to win his next start ?

CAMPBELL: Well, if you have a horse that gets locked in and has a lot of pace at the wire, obviously you think he's going to race good next week. But that doesn't always hold true. Because if they're locked in and then you show them two steps of daylight, they turn you loose.

You see horses climbing over the driver's back in front of them and yet a week later, they can be different horses. ?

That's because cover is so much a factor with certain horses. Like a horse got roughed up. Let's say a guy took you a quarter in :28 flat, or even parked you the whole mile, and the horse hung in there good. You know there's a good chance he' going to come back well if he gets an easier trip next week.

What is the strongest factor that might indicate to you that this horse, barring unforseen happenings, should win his next start ?

That's almost impossible. I'd say that lameness and soundness are the biggest factors. That would make a horse change it's form more than anything.

Can you feel, in driving a horse, just how sound he is ?

Oh, yes, although there are some horses that do not show lameness until you put pressure on them in a race. But with most of them, you can tell in the post parade how sound they are on that particular night.

Do you see things in another horse which indicate that he will be very hard to stop next time ?

The same things as if you were driving the horse. If he got locked in and was runnin over horses. If he was parked or had a rough trip or got run into or something like that.

Were you to visit a strage track and handicap horses which you were not familiar, what would you look for ?

I'm a great believer in class over speed: horses dropping down versus those that are moving up and have gone faster. More in conditoned races than in claimers. Claimers are a little bit different.
If a horse was up the track in $22,000 claimers and he drops to $18,000, it's a good sign that they're getting a little worn out. But, with condition horses especially, class will do better than speed.
I'd look for a horse that was dropping down, had some money on his card, showed he had a little bit of class, versus a horse that was moving up in condition races.

How does a horse show you he is continuing to improve or sharpen ?

That's something you can tell by driving: how they feel through the stretch, how easy they're beating the class. That's something you can feel.

Some horses can race faster without pressure than when they are pressed ?

That's an attitude thing. Some horses just won't fight another horse. They see a horse go by them and they won't try. Same as horse that might sit in the two hole, right up tight, but as soon as the guy tips him, he just hangs. That's a question of attitude.
Attitude and lameness play such a big part. And they go together because a horse will try so much harder when he's not hurting.

What tells you a horse can be expected to tail off ?

Well, when they are all done at the wire. Driven hard out, three races in a row, that's going to take it's toll. It varies so much from horse to horse. Sometimes just one race will do in a horse. For example, a front-runner, he's been winning twor or three weeks in a row by one or two lengths. Then, all of sudden, he just barely wins. They're starting to get to him, and they might be able to get to him the next week.
As far as telling, some horses you'd think were all done--two or three good races and you'd think that was it. Then they'll bounce right back. That goes back to your training. The trainer plays such a big role in something like that. A good trainer can keep a horse going a lot longer that way.

What takes more out of a horse, going first over and winning or going first over and getting beat ?

Getting beat...

Why is it so tough for horses to win two races back to back ?

Because the competition is so tight. Things have to go almost exactly right for any number of horses to win. And the chances of things right and the horse being fit two weeks in a row is exceptionally tough around here (Meadowlands)..
So many circumstances go into a horse getting lucky. A horse might get lucky, come second over and go on to win while there was a live horse locked in at the rail, or something. A horse comes first over and he just did beat him. The next week he comes back and he's third over. The horse that he just beat, that came first over, gets a second over trip. Around here the competition is so tight that the chances of everything going right two weeks in a row is slight.

What are the most common signs a horse will show in a race prior to a winning mile ?

Closing lengths in the stretch is one thing I look for. Another thing is the fastest last quarter, depending on the time of the race. That's another thing you have to consider. If they come :28 off three quarters in 1:30 (heehee) or :29 off three quarters in 1:28. So that makes a difference.

What is more important, gaining lengths or passing horses ?

Passing horses....

You consider the entire combination valuable ?

Yes, I'd look for passing horses or closing lengths in the stretch or the fastest last quarter and take the three of them into consideration.

What signs in a race, or a series of races, tell you about a horse's form cycle ?

That's something the program will show. If he starts losing lengths in the stretch, the stretch, that's the first thing to look for when a horses is losing his form. He'll start losing lengths or losing positions in the stretch.

What do you look for in other horses you are facing, to determine the live horses you will have to beat ?

First I look for the morning line and the trackman's pick in the program. Then I look over the program and make my own decision. Before you go to the gate you look at the odds board, because the public is a good handicapper, whether you believe that or not. Usually, the three or four favorites in the odds are the horses to beat. That's a good rule of thumb.
And you know if the horse that's coming to you a the half is 6/5 on the board, you should be letting him go. Let's say you're floating out going to the quarter and there's a horse fourth and he's 50/1 or 90/1, there's no way you'll flush him out to follow him. What's the sense? But if he's 4/5, you're going to wait there a long time and hope he comes.

How do you handicap horses right now ?

Class seems to be most important in conditioned races especially. A horse dropping down out of a high conditioned race, or even just down in conditioned racing, unless he's been getting blown away, he's going to be a big factor in lower conditions.

How does the public get around not knowing what happens to a horse from the time he comes off the track one week until he returns for his next race ?

That's where they've got to use their trainer's standings and trainer's percentages.

What can they look for when the horses are scoring ?

If somebody knows the difference between a lame horse and a sound horse, that's what they should be doing, especially if they got to the races all the time. They watch a horse one week and he looks good and he goes and wins. The next week he's scratched lame. The following wee he's back and he scores down totally different from the night he raced well. That's a s sure sign he's still suffering from what was bothering him.
A horse might look like he's dogging it one week, and the next week he's back looking extra sharp. He's up on the bit and there's a good chance he's going to race better than he did the week before.
======================================

John Campbell talks about positive factors:

1. Got parked but hung in there good.
2. Got locked in and was running over horses.
3. Dropping in class more so in conditioned races than in claimers.
4. Soundness and attitude.
5. Closing lengths or passing horses in the stretch.
6. Fastest last quarter.
7. Scoring sharply, up on the bit.
---------------------------------------------

On the other side of the coin, Campbell lists these negative points:

1. Lameness.
2. When he's all done at the wire.
3. Driven hard three races in a row.
4. Horse wins a few races easily, but last time barely hangs on.
5. Losing lengths or losing positions in the stretch.
6. Dogging it wihile scoring.

=================================

Next interview with Ben (Benny the Whip) Webster....

best,

PaceAdvantage
08-02-2011, 07:37 PM
LottaKash,

I have to ask the obvious. Are you reproducing the full text of copyrighted material in your recent posts?

==PA