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View Full Version : Tue 7/26 - Delaware 10th Race


skipaway100
07-26-2011, 06:41 AM
Let's see if we can't get a repeat of yesterday's success: $17.00 winner, $121 Exacta, $474 Trifecta - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=85633



Today's Race Of The Day: Delaware 10th Race - http://www.formscore.com/free0726.pdf - 6 furlong dirt


#1 Anzio Adam (5-1 ML) - New best of 37 last out. A very healthy sturdy, consistant horse. I see no reason for either a huge reaction or a big move forward. 35-37 likely.

#2 Big Jay (12-1) - 36 best dirt sprint fig, pattern suggests a 33-35 type figure here. Pass.

#3 Closing Hour (10-1) - Each 36 caused negative form as a 3 year old, he fired a new top of 40 in the winter under a switch to Guerrero which wiped him out for 6 months. Returned to a 28. He should run much better this time (mid-30s, maybe a little more?) Alex Cintron is not Guerrero's go-to rider, but the trainer must be respected.

#4 Self Dealin' Man (12-1) - 39-40 sprint figs early in the year, something went amiss after that 41 route run at Laurel (31-34-34 then a layoff). Dicey spot here, but he has some things going on here. First, an "A" trainer taking a good jockey with him. Second, He ran a 37 off the layoff last december. This is a player in this race at a potential price. The one problem I don't like with Self Dealin' Man is that his lack of early pace probably played well better at Laurel than it will at Delaware.

#5 Cool Joe Brown (8-1) - Fragile horse. 42 top last September knocked him out with 2 bad races following it. Then a 36 in December resulted in a layoff. Returned to run a 37 in late April, that caused a 28 in June. Now coming off another 37 a few weeks ago. I expect another negative reaction. Competitive figs but poor pattern has me leaning against.

#6 Richie Rules (30-1) - 34 sprint top. Too slow of everyone we've looked at so far. Pass.

#7 Richie's Rocket (6-1) - This one spikes my interest very much. 35 debut, followed by a 37 on short rest (good sign). The 37 did wipe him out, but he quickly (within 2 months) set a brand new top of 43. He's reacted off that (37-34) but now has 2 months since that 43 into this one! This is a very live pattern with a horse that has shown he's more than fast enough. I expect atleast a 40 here, if not a 42-43. Can do much worse than Zito/Saez as well.

#8 Go Yankees (6-1) - Has run well to begin his 5 year old campaign. I cannot imagine this one having another forward move in him though but his best (38) is competitive here for the exotics, and you might want to include him on the backend.

#9 Higher Place (8-1) - 40 sprint top delivered in June. Handled it well (37), but I'm a little skeptical. This could be a Top-Off-X pattern like he showed in his 3 year old campaign. Not blown away here and the poor post hurts.

#10 Blue Origin (30-1) - Absurdly too slow.

#11 Here For The Music (4-1) - Bigtime overlay. 38 top in January, hasn't been able to get back to it. Might run a 34-36 here, poor post. Pass.

#12 I. Turner (10-1) - Bounce candidate. Took 3 months to get back to this 37. Best you can hope for is a pair up here, and even that leaves him too short with this poor post.



Major Contenders
#3 Closing Hour (10-1)
#4 Self Dealin' Man (12-1)
#7 Richie's Rocket (6-1)
#8 Go Yankees (8-1)


Cool Joe Brown (42-40 last two, both high early energy) has the pace edge here, and he's going to fire from the gate. Both Closing Hour and Richie's Rocket having similar, 2nd best early speed here and I expect both to be watching Cool Joe Brown and both to make the move on him coming out of the turn.

7 is the key IMO. Even down to 7/2 I'd consider a win bet on him. The other 3 contenders here should be used in the exotics.

rubicon55
07-26-2011, 10:48 AM
Let's see if we can't get a repeat of yesterday's success: $17.00 winner, $121 Exacta, $474 Trifecta - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=85633



Today's Race Of The Day: Delaware 10th Race - http://www.formscore.com/free0726.pdf - 6 furlong dirt


#1 Anzio Adam (5-1 ML) - New best of 37 last out. A very healthy sturdy, consistant horse. I see no reason for either a huge reaction or a big move forward. 35-37 likely.

#2 Big Jay (12-1) - 36 best dirt sprint fig, pattern suggests a 33-35 type figure here. Pass.

#3 Closing Hour (10-1) - Each 36 caused negative form as a 3 year old, he fired a new top of 40 in the winter under a switch to Guerrero which wiped him out for 6 months. Returned to a 28. He should run much better this time (mid-30s, maybe a little more?) Alex Cintron is not Guerrero's go-to rider, but the trainer must be respected.

#4 Self Dealin' Man (12-1) - 39-40 sprint figs early in the year, something went amiss after that 41 route run at Laurel (31-34-34 then a layoff). Dicey spot here, but he has some things going on here. First, an "A" trainer taking a good jockey with him. Second, He ran a 37 off the layoff last december. This is a player in this race at a potential price. The one problem I don't like with Self Dealin' Man is that his lack of early pace probably played well better at Laurel than it will at Delaware.

#5 Cool Joe Brown (8-1) - Fragile horse. 42 top last September knocked him out with 2 bad races following it. Then a 36 in December resulted in a layoff. Returned to run a 37 in late April, that caused a 28 in June. Now coming off another 37 a few weeks ago. I expect another negative reaction. Competitive figs but poor pattern has me leaning against.

#6 Richie Rules (30-1) - 34 sprint top. Too slow of everyone we've looked at so far. Pass.

#7 Richie's Rocket (6-1) - This one spikes my interest very much. 35 debut, followed by a 37 on short rest (good sign). The 37 did wipe him out, but he quickly (within 2 months) set a brand new top of 43. He's reacted off that (37-34) but now has 2 months since that 43 into this one! This is a very live pattern with a horse that has shown he's more than fast enough. I expect atleast a 40 here, if not a 42-43. Can do much worse than Zito/Saez as well.

#8 Go Yankees (6-1) - Has run well to begin his 5 year old campaign. I cannot imagine this one having another forward move in him though but his best (38) is competitive here for the exotics, and you might want to include him on the backend.

#9 Higher Place (8-1) - 40 sprint top delivered in June. Handled it well (37), but I'm a little skeptical. This could be a Top-Off-X pattern like he showed in his 3 year old campaign. Not blown away here and the poor post hurts.

#10 Blue Origin (30-1) - Absurdly too slow.

#11 Here For The Music (4-1) - Bigtime overlay. 38 top in January, hasn't been able to get back to it. Might run a 34-36 here, poor post. Pass.

#12 I. Turner (10-1) - Bounce candidate. Took 3 months to get back to this 37. Best you can hope for is a pair up here, and even that leaves him too short with this poor post.



Major Contenders
#3 Closing Hour (10-1)
#4 Self Dealin' Man (12-1)
#7 Richie's Rocket (6-1)
#8 Go Yankees (8-1)


Cool Joe Brown (42-40 last two, both high early energy) has the pace edge here, and he's going to fire from the gate. Both Closing Hour and Richie's Rocket having similar, 2nd best early speed here and I expect both to be watching Cool Joe Brown and both to make the move on him coming out of the turn.

7 is the key IMO. Even down to 7/2 I'd consider a win bet on him. The other 3 contenders here should be used in the exotics.

Good analysis - you keyed the #7 which was the winner. Good job.

MONEY
07-26-2011, 11:38 AM
Good analysis - you keyed the #7 which was the winner. Good job.
You must be looking through a Crystal Ball.:lol:
The race hasn't run yet.:D

rubicon55
07-26-2011, 12:05 PM
You must be looking through a Crystal Ball.:lol:
The race hasn't run yet.:D

My bad MONEY - you are correct. Oops!

skipaway100
07-27-2011, 05:27 AM
Yikes! Closing Hour won at 7-1. Richie's Rocket was bet down to even money and finished 3rd, just edged out by Higher Place.

I'm kicking myself because my read on Higher Place here was terrible. He was clearly fast enough and shoudl have been used in the contender mix.

Go Yankees finished 4th.