Why I am discarding Brohamer's pace

[jasperson]

Why I am discarding Brohamer's calculations as impractical for me. Serveral years ago I wrote a program to make Brohamer's calculations using bris data. I did enough races to conclude that without pace track variants and par times that it would not work. Satlurday I thought I would give it another go at 4 tracks. They were suf,prx,del and crc. 3 were cancled and that left me with just crc, but this was enough to convince me that I was right in the first place. Average pace had 2 winners from the 12 races early pace and sustain pace had none. I had tried to select for each horse the race that was most representative of his abilities at that race distance and class. In most cases I used the last race unless it was at the wrong distance or an off track or he had some trouble that would have caused a bad race. I think I did well because the top speed rated horse won 7 of the 12 races. I am not trying to say the speed rating are better than pace ratings just that to make good pace rating you need tv and pars which I didn't have. Since for me that is too much work to do tv and pars for the 4 or 5 tracks that I play and I am unwilling to pay bris $10 a track for that data I am discarding Brohamer. If I had bought the data for my 4 track saturday I would have been out $30 before the day started. Before the Sartin method would work for me I would have to be part of a syndicate like pirco where the work load and expense was shared by the group.

[DJofSD]

Do you have a model?

[Light]

If I was asked to pick one track in America where you absolutely needed a track variant and especially track to track adjustments it would be CRC. It's a deceptively slow surface.

[Capper Al]

Jack,

With a comprehensive method where the impact value of pace was added to that of speed, trainer, etc, I found MPH's pace of value. Currently, I'm using Extreme Pace's methods with success.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=82094

[jasperson]

Do you have a model?
No and that is why I am discarding it. I think the work required to do modeling track variant, par times for the 3 fractions is too much for me.

[pandy]

Average Pace is not a good rating and the problem with the rating is that it is too heavily tilted towards early speed. If you want a good compounded rating it has to include both early speed and late speed (balanced rating). Average Pace doesn't work, it's just a pace rating and not a very good one.

[jasperson]

Jack,

With a comprehensive method where the impact value of pace was added to that of speed, trainer, etc, I found MPH's pace of value. Currently, I'm using Extreme Pace's methods with success.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=82094
Al, I am still a comprehensive handicapper. I had a very successful day at crc with 5 wins and one of them paying 12.60 I just played brohamer on paper. I just don't want to stagnate by not trying new things and investigating some old methods that I have discarded a long time ago.

[pandy]

In my opinion, the best Brohamer/Sartin ratings are EP (EARLY PACE) and 3FR (THIRD FRACTION).

[Light]

In my opinion, the best Brohamer/Sartin ratings are EP (EARLY PACE) and 3FR (THIRD FRACTION).

I've been doing that for years with automatic variant adjustments . It's one of the outputs I get with my homemade computer software. It was only a couple of years ago I noticed that if I played a race where there was a CRC invader,that horse would get an artificially low TPR due to requiring track to track adjustments. Of course I figured it out after those low rated TPR horses would win at good prices.So what I'm saying is you need the DTV's and track to track adjustments to be accurate.

[Uncle Salty]

I agree that the work required to do all the pace calculations for the Sartin Method is much more work than one person can handle for a day's card. A script or program to do the number crunching would help but that's not an option for a lot of people.

I try to do this occasionally for a couple races when I find the time but most of the time, I find those pace ratings just point me to the chalk anyways, so pretty much gave up too...

I do however keep a track profile as outlined in MPH. I've found this to be useful for eliminating non-contenders based on running styles that have had an advantage on the various courses.

[waytogo]

Try HSH a program by Dave Schwartz. He has done a ton of work with pace in the last two years and some of it may surprise you.

Even though you only play a few tracks, HSH used HDW data and all tracks are about $130 per month and that includes par files.

[openhorse]

Before the Sartin method would work for me I would have to be part of a syndicate like pirco where the work load and expense was shared by the group.
Shortly after launching this product (2 weeks ago), 2 original members of PIRCO contacted me regarding collaboration in the true spirit of the business model they had envisioned years ago. They are particularly interested in an open-platform with professional custom reports.

Instead of a syndicate, our approach is to use engineering to enable collaboration. We use shared resources including VBScript code that runs a comprehensive handicapping heuristic. All SQL, Joins, and processing is transparent to the user. Users can design their own reports with their own IV's, and write pace-array calculations (VBScript) grouped by the report of their choice.

You can see the full Sartin Pace Contenders report for Del Mar Wed. here. (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1134876&postcount=47)
(Note: 5 points is best, 1 worst, 0 is unrated)

[Uncle Salty]

You can see the full Sartin Pace Contenders report for Del Mar Wed. here.
(Note: 5 points is best, 1 worst, 0 is unrated)

Just a quick question...(If I'm reading your track profile correctly) How did you get the dominant running style of E for the sprints at Del Mar? I see all of the winners on the sprint courses as coming from off of the pace so far this year.

[openhorse]

How did you get the dominant running style of E for the sprints at Del Mar? I see all of the winners on the sprint courses as coming from off of the pace so far this year.

Thanks for your feedback. Hmm, after watching yesterdays race replays, I can see no errors in the track profile.

<pdfs attached>
Track Profiles DMR,HOL for comparison
and Yesterdays's DelMar Sartin FPS Array showing runners' previous fractions from the *most recent Win* (if any).

Whole Meet:
The %En value shown for sprint/route is the Meet Average for that distance.
Using the FPS array, you can see the exact feet-per-second the winning horse is travelling in each segment.

Yesterday
Using yesterday's races, there were 4 E's, 1 P for sprints. All Routes yesterday were P. Watching Cal-racing replays, this seems accurate to me.

Not trying to hijack, I totally agree with the poster that AP alone sucks.
The Pace Array report really shows why you dont want to use Average Pace as the highest-order variable when sorting contenders. -100% ROI ! Sartin Pace is a methodology, not a system. You rarely get to enjoy the luxury of a single magic-number leading you to the answer.

[Uncle Salty]

Thanks for your feedback. Hmm, after watching yesterdays race replays, I can see no errors in the track profile.

Yes, you are correct, yesterday (7/28/11) Del Mar had a definite early speed bias and this caused some of my picks for the first few races to be a bit off. But those original .pdfs you posted were for the opening week of races and didn't include Thursdays races, correct? For opening week, I saw a majority of the winners having a P or S designation... Maybe a couple of wire to wire winners but not many. Were you including more races than just the first week of the meet?