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View Full Version : I applaud DMRs pick 6 guarantee. BUT..


Stillriledup
07-22-2011, 01:49 AM
..are they making a mistake not seeding the pick 5 with that 50 grand?

If the pick 5 had a 50k carryover to start, i would have to imagine they would haul 750 to a million on that bet. Also, it would create a huge buzz in the early races, and the handle on those races would be much higher.

A certain segment of people with big bankrolls bet the pick 6 and there are a lot of people who don't play the pick 6 because its too hard and/or they can't afford to bet the pick 6 'the right way'.

With the Pick 5, 'everyone' would wade into that pool because, well, at a 50 cent base and one less race, its not as hard to hit as a pick 6.


DMR should pack the first 5 races of the day with the 5 largest fields and treat the pick 5 as a 'windfall' type of wager at 14% with the 50k added.

It seems to me that the 50k added to the pick 5 pool would end up in more pockets and create more churn than a pick 6 bet would.

Lastly, the Sunday pick 6 is probably going to have a carryover anyway because the Saturday cards are really hard, so half the time they're going to C/O the pick 6 anyway, the 50 grand might be better spent in the early pick 5.

Would the 50 grand in the pick 5 hurt the pick 6 pool? Probably. But when you have a chance to create a huge buzz on one of your plays, i think this pick 5 might be a more attractive wager with seeded money.

Agree or disagree.

skipaway100
07-22-2011, 02:53 AM
Disagree.

You answered your own question with:


With the Pick 5, 'everyone' would wade into that pool because, well, at a 50 cent base and one less race, its not as hard to hit as a pick 6.


.50 pick 5's are already very appealing. They are taking in $250k-$350k. What's another 50k seed really going to add? There's only so much money you can squeeze out of a 50 cent pick 5 (you can play big inexpensive tickets).

$2 pick 6's aren't appealing to the masses unless there is insane money on the line. Even at big tracks Pick 6's sometimes take a few carryovers before they really balloon and draw alot of interest. The Pick 6's at the small tracks are dead. Parx recently paid out their entire pool ($6k) to a single winning ticket, and there wasn't 1 winner longer than 7/2. It's because it's nobody plays it with serious money, it rolls over dozens of times. If they seeded it, they would have something IMO.

Del Mar is improving its chances of having more multi-million dollar pick 6's for only $50k investment. These million+ pick 6's draw crowds and publicity. I'll sell more cards for mid-week multi-million dollar pick 6's (such as the one after the Belmont Stakes) than any other day (sometimes they outperform ).

therussmeister
07-22-2011, 01:06 PM
Because it's only a $0.50 and five races, making it easier to hit, they would have to seed it much more often, making it too expensive for them.

Parx pick six paid 6k! Must have been a 20 day carryover.

Igeteven
07-22-2011, 01:44 PM
..are they making a mistake not seeding the pick 5 with that 50 grand?

If the pick 5 had a 50k carryover to start, i would have to imagine they would haul 750 to a million on that bet. Also, it would create a huge buzz in the early races, and the handle on those races would be much higher.

A certain segment of people with big bankrolls bet the pick 6 and there are a lot of people who don't play the pick 6 because its too hard and/or they can't afford to bet the pick 6 'the right way'.

With the Pick 5, 'everyone' would wade into that pool because, well, at a 50 cent base and one less race, its not as hard to hit as a pick 6.


DMR should pack the first 5 races of the day with the 5 largest fields and treat the pick 5 as a 'windfall' type of wager at 14% with the 50k added.

It seems to me that the 50k added to the pick 5 pool would end up in more pockets and create more churn than a pick 6 bet would.

Lastly, the Sunday pick 6 is probably going to have a carryover anyway because the Saturday cards are really hard, so half the time they're going to C/O the pick 6 anyway, the 50 grand might be better spent in the early pick 5.

Would the 50 grand in the pick 5 hurt the pick 6 pool? Probably. But when you have a chance to create a huge buzz on one of your plays, i think this pick 5 might be a more attractive wager with seeded money.

Agree or disagree.

Race track management is half way home at Del mar, I agree with you, they are looking for the carryovers to bail them out.

Yes play if one can win, however, the big boys will be looking to take it all.

Has anyone in the history of racing ever seen a race track seeding a pool?

therussmeister
07-22-2011, 11:18 PM
Years ago, Canterbury used to seed their pick six with a way too small amount. I think it was $10,000 if I remember right.

Edward DeVere
07-23-2011, 12:40 AM
Has anyone in the history of racing ever seen a race track seeding a pool?

I think one of the Chicago tracks (Hawthorne?) did a few years ago. Quickly discontinued it because the track was getting ANNIHILATED.

Steven Kolb
07-23-2011, 02:23 AM
*My goal is to get new players to the track... On Late Friday PM's ---> IMO it's a better new player day than Sunday.
--
Something along this line...
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I'd announce over the So Cal airwaves that the first 6,600 paid admission fans each will receive a non-refundable $10 Pick 6 ticket that has five $2 "Quick Pick" Pick 6 selections.
----
Imagine 6,600 people holding tickets to a possible six-figure jackpot. Exciting! Strangers asking each other what #'s they have on their free Pick 6 tickets.
AND many of those "strangers" will be newbies, or non-regulars. ---> It would be something "cool" to do on a Friday afternoon in So. Cal...
(Hey boss, gotta take my kid to the dentist...)
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Sunday is already a rockin' day.
The $66,000 less the 24% take out (yea, let them do the take out thing, as 6,600 excited fans is better than 5,000).
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Of course this is just my off-the-wall idea to bring out the newer players. :rolleyes:

Yes Martin... the net $50K goes in the Friday Pick 6 pool.

A rough idea that needs an ironing board.
sk

davew
07-23-2011, 04:16 AM
if they made the pick six for a dime, they would get more action

Canarsie
07-23-2011, 07:25 AM
Has anyone in the history of racing ever seen a race track seeding a pool?


Pocono Downs seeded their Pick 7 $25,000 a few years back. It really never caught on maybe because it was a $2 wager and the pools were still small. Probably was discontinued haven't heard about it recently.

Sorry this is the only info I could find on it except for a PDF file.

http://xwebapp.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/templates/?a=33455&z=