andicap
11-14-2003, 01:54 PM
Using just the charts and a pen and notebook I have noticed the following trainer/shipper/layoff trends in NY the last few weeks.
My question: Is this information valuable on its own. I have only noticed patterns that are unusual. For example, if I saw Dutrow's lost several odds-on races lately, that means it was an out-of-charactor pattern.
I'm curious as to whether the hour a week I spend pouring over the NY charts in Simul Weekly and making these notes is worthwhile without having to keep a database.
These are not all the patterns, but some highlights:
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Check out how often Mike Luzzi has been on losing low=priced horses in the past couple of weeks... generally 8-5 and under
I count six since 10/29, two for Levine, two for Lake. Others who have more also have more winners.
Most of pletcher's losers at 8-5 and under are in maiden races. Recently he has had several layoff horses (over 45 days) lose at 4-1 and under.
Allen Jerkins fails a lot at odds-on. but those horses often run 2nd. Poor racing luck.
Dutrow last four short ones last week -- much more than usual, but three were all good tracks or turf. none were off more than 31 days. (a sign of his stable tiring? -- he does really well with fresh horses). His layoff horses continue to hit, usually at short odds, but he has a 5-1 and 15-1 winner in the last 4 weeks, 53d and 5 1/2months, both on the turf with decent class horses.
Levine and Iwiniski layoff horses have disappointed twice recently at short odds.
LaBocetta is hot recently with layoff horses, 4-1 and 3-1, Arroyo up, on the lead.
On the shipper front, well-bet Delaware shippers are dangerous -- flat bet profit at 4-1 and under for past 2 weeks.Theory: AQU competition is weaker so trainers from Grade B tracks come north for higher purses, easier pickings.
But MED shippers are overbet. nine have lost at 4-1 and under in last two weeks with only 1 winner. (There was a 14-1 shot in a stakes race)
McLaughlin shippers bet to 4-1 or below are well meant. No a single loser in the past 7 weeks and three winners at 4-1, 3-1 and 5-2.
Preciado has an 8-1 and 14-1 winner shipping from NJ this fall, both back within 3 weeks or so. None have lost at 4-1 or under.
Since Sept. 17 these tracks have provided not a single winning shipper
-- Suffolk
-- Calder
-- Philly
-- CT
FL horses are 2-23, but under 4-1, they are 2-3, winning at 2-1 with 2 yr old colt NYB stakes race and back in Sept5. at 5-2 with a 2yr old filly maiden race. Both trained by D'Allesandro, back within about 4 weeks.
My question: Is this information valuable on its own. I have only noticed patterns that are unusual. For example, if I saw Dutrow's lost several odds-on races lately, that means it was an out-of-charactor pattern.
I'm curious as to whether the hour a week I spend pouring over the NY charts in Simul Weekly and making these notes is worthwhile without having to keep a database.
These are not all the patterns, but some highlights:
----------------
Check out how often Mike Luzzi has been on losing low=priced horses in the past couple of weeks... generally 8-5 and under
I count six since 10/29, two for Levine, two for Lake. Others who have more also have more winners.
Most of pletcher's losers at 8-5 and under are in maiden races. Recently he has had several layoff horses (over 45 days) lose at 4-1 and under.
Allen Jerkins fails a lot at odds-on. but those horses often run 2nd. Poor racing luck.
Dutrow last four short ones last week -- much more than usual, but three were all good tracks or turf. none were off more than 31 days. (a sign of his stable tiring? -- he does really well with fresh horses). His layoff horses continue to hit, usually at short odds, but he has a 5-1 and 15-1 winner in the last 4 weeks, 53d and 5 1/2months, both on the turf with decent class horses.
Levine and Iwiniski layoff horses have disappointed twice recently at short odds.
LaBocetta is hot recently with layoff horses, 4-1 and 3-1, Arroyo up, on the lead.
On the shipper front, well-bet Delaware shippers are dangerous -- flat bet profit at 4-1 and under for past 2 weeks.Theory: AQU competition is weaker so trainers from Grade B tracks come north for higher purses, easier pickings.
But MED shippers are overbet. nine have lost at 4-1 and under in last two weeks with only 1 winner. (There was a 14-1 shot in a stakes race)
McLaughlin shippers bet to 4-1 or below are well meant. No a single loser in the past 7 weeks and three winners at 4-1, 3-1 and 5-2.
Preciado has an 8-1 and 14-1 winner shipping from NJ this fall, both back within 3 weeks or so. None have lost at 4-1 or under.
Since Sept. 17 these tracks have provided not a single winning shipper
-- Suffolk
-- Calder
-- Philly
-- CT
FL horses are 2-23, but under 4-1, they are 2-3, winning at 2-1 with 2 yr old colt NYB stakes race and back in Sept5. at 5-2 with a 2yr old filly maiden race. Both trained by D'Allesandro, back within about 4 weeks.