EPO and the Bettor

[karlskorner]

www.thoroughbredtimes.com/commentary/commentary.asp#viewpoints

[VetScratch]

As a potent blood-count charger, EPO has been around for at least a decade. Cost and the potential for adverse side effects have been the major constraints. Before everyone got wise to epogen, it was a hot item in the mid-90s when it cost about $400 per month per horse. Today, the use of EPO is just plain stupid, dangerous, and costly... a sad state of affairs when trainers feel obliged to break the rules with a high-risk drug because they fear everyone else will have an edge.

[takeout]

Drat! I just posted that same link in the "predicting stamina" thread before I saw this one. :o

[Valuist]

There's a trainer, who shall remain nameless, who happens to campaign a pretty good sized stable at both those tracks and allegedly had been big into the EPO. I'll let you see if you can guess who I'm talking about.

[VetScratch]

HOU & LS? Would his alleged initials be the same as a track code?

========
BTW, since you follow LS:

In CN's best year, when he about ruined the meet at LS, I figured he was way too hot for EPO to explain his edge. He was getting big improvements immediately after claims... too quick for an EPO buildup.

Do you have any clue what the story was?

[Jaguar]

Karl, thanks for posting this.

Handicappers have been complaining about this situation for years. Little was done. In fact, in most venues, nothing was done.

A year ago when some posters were disdainfully saying that this situation didn't exist, drugs weren't a problem, I was tempted to reply to these ignorant people that if they believed that, then they obvioiusly didn't bet on horses.

In fact, when the most arrogant and un-informed guys were denying that illegal drug use existed in horse racing, New York and New Jersey were in the midst of a Juan Serey crisis which cost alot of bettors a major bundle.

Serey nicked me good at Aqueduct till my software's trainer algorithims kicked in and I caught on. Some other people went down for alot more than I did. Ask NYRA about their e-mail content at that time. They were lucky some angry lunatic didn't burn the joint down.

Backstretch gossip now has it that through the wonders of chemistry, there is a new rocket fuel making itself known in the racing world. So, we may see sudden form reversals that will shock even a Kentucky veterinarian.

Soon you might watch a clapped-out 6f plater close down a field of 7f Allowance sprinters the way Ron Flockhart buried the competition in a "D' Type at the the 1957 Le Mans 24 hrs.

In today's racing world, anything is possible.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

Jaguar,

If I'm not mistaken, the lead driver in the winning car for Ecurie Ecosse in the 1957 Le Mans 24-Hour was Ivor "The Driver" Bueb, who had previously won Le Mans in 1955. I believe Flockhart participated as the secondary driver but is credited with igniting a doping scandal when a designer drug, pronounced as "NO~DOZE" by the French, was found in his kit after the race.

[Jaguar]

VetScratch,

You are absolutely right. Ivor Bueb and Ron Flockhart shared driving duties in that wonderful Browns Lane 1-2-3-4-6 sweep, the greatest moment in Jaguar racing history- as the 2 men piloted XKD606, running a 3.8 liter fuel-injected engine, to victory.

This win at Le Mans made it 3 years in a row for the mighty "D" type, a racing car which had been specifically designed for the Le Mans course.

Days of glory and the crowning achievement of Sir William Lyons' brilliant automotive career...And to think that Norman Dewis still lives! Not all greatness has disappeared from this earth.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[VetScratch]

Jaguar,

I knew that you would top yourself.
Most excellent! :) :) :) :)

=====
Once you've carried a Coach, no other bag will please you!

[karlskorner]

There is an article (cain't get URL to wrap) about Russ Harris, turf writer for the New York Daily News and recipient of the 2003 Lifetime Achiement Award from the National Turf Writers. I met him years ago at GP when he wrote for Miami Herald. I have cut a couple of paragraphs which were of interest.

1. For years he has kept notes on every horse in every race on the NY tracks. The notes he kept tells him times, track conditions, jockeys, weather and other important information.

2. When asked what advice he would give to bettors, Harris answered: "PUT YOUR MONEY AWAY. Gambling at the tracks is stacked against the little guy. The big guy puts down $500 on a race, where the horse goes off 6-5 and he wins $600. No big deal. The little guy makes a $2 bet and hits the DD or P6 and he has to give IRS 28%. "" I have decided long ago not to play. It's not worth it, If you win $25K, I think you should take home $25K.
He thought for a moment before adding, "If you have an IQ of 150 and are willing to work five to six hours a day, seven days a week following horses, you have a chance to break even"

After all these years of grinding and articles like the above on EPO I am begining to wonder is it really worth it ?

[brdman12]

Wow! Been reading the posts this morning before heading out to the OTB. Better take some antacid and a couple extra prozac with me. The evolution of this great sport continues its downward trend.

[Valuist]

Vet Scratch-

Yes those initials of the alleged violator could be the same as a track code. Won't say which one, but I think you know.

[Jaguar]

Karl, very interesting post. Russ projects typical attitude of a burnout. This game burns out more people than crack cocaine in a housing project.

Of course, as you indicate, the situation has deteriorated (sharply since the late 70's). But, Russ is missing one important point.

Horse racing is just a "spot" game. The software looks for patterns, measures the relative strength of those patterns, identifies key horses, and the handicapper decides when to step out at the mutuel window.

On a typical 9-race card at a decent track, say Keeneland, Hawthorne, Gulfstream, or Belmont, there are usually between 2-4 playable races- most of them allowance races.

If a guy plays 2 tracks a day, not all of the key horses will be chalk, and the bettor has a shot at a few Win pools, as well as a few Trifecta pools.

In other words, Russ may be discouraged after all these years, but consider that as a public handicapper, he had to find picks in every race on that day's card.

I would burn out, as well, If I had to handicap Maiden Claimers at Wahoochie Downs- where they set up the races in the barn and the trainers live in their cars.

I feel privileged to be able to participate, in even a small way, in this troubled- but still great- game. Just hope Magna doesn't destroy it with the slot craziness.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[CapperLou]

I tend to agree with Russ Harris at this point in time and I can see why you, Karl, are wondering if it's worth it any more.

What Harris says is sure true at Calder--the track is so chalky you have to bet hundreds to make any money and find the right spots to do it.

The little guys are all trying to get lucky with the exotics and rarely cash a good one.

The prices have been so beaten down by the smart large bettors that the little guy really has no chance anymore, as Harris suggests--I agree with him.

I have begun--in the past three years playing other tracks which are not so chalky in order to have a chance at winning some decent bucks and have been doing OK. If I play anything at Calder--I either have to play at least $200 win or wait for the overlay--which does not happen often, so I can play less and still make some dough. It's very frustrating.

Had a great run this summer at Saratoga, Arlington, & Ellis & MNR--but did not do well in October at Belmont & Keeneland. That's the way this game goes.

Again, I'm inclined to agree very much with Mr Harris.

All the best,

CapperLou

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Jaguar
I would burn out, as well, If I had to handicap Maiden Claimers at Wahoochie Downs- Jaguar

Jag

Wahoochie downs is actually Beulah Park .......and don't you ever forget it!!!

The Twins

[karlskorner]

I would hardly call it "burnout" in my case, more like anticipation, here it is 8AM, been in the pool, finished todays card and have 3 hours to diddle with before I leave for the track There are 11 races on the card, I intend to play the 1st 10, (11th has 5 FTS).
Unlike most of the others members who are looking for "playable races" throughout the country, there will be a "winner" in each of the first 10 races, somebody is going to win them. I have never seen a race where there wasn't a winning ticket.

It's the EPO and other drugs, things your computer and all the data in the world will not filter out, which cause me concern

[karlskorner]

You are right CRC has been "chalk" on occassion. But while you and others are looking elsewhere for a play, on 11/10/03 I played 8 of the 10 races carded (2 were full of FTS) I won all 8 races (so did alot of other people). The 8 races payed from $3.80 to $7.40, all chalk or near chalk. I went home with $128 over my goal of $400 for the day. Something I just can't understand, if you think your selections are going to win, play them Myself and probably hundreds/thousands of others had "reason" to play chalk when called for. I am not a "chalk" player, but if my selections are chalk, so be it. It's what you leave the track with in your left pants pocket that counts, not the fact that on occassion you hit a bomb, those people call it a game.

[CapperLou]

Karl:

I agree with you and used to play the one's that paid 3.80 etc. and I always had winning weeks and months at CRC.

I always set a goal also each day. When it is reached, I do not make any more plays that day. But the last time I won 8 races in a day was August 2002 when I won 8 in a row and then continued the next day winning 4 more for a total of 12.

But this past year I have stopped playing those short ones and tried to not play anything at Calder unless it is 2-1 or more when I bet. And, I've cut down my wager size too. The good news is that I'm still winning at CRC.

Glad that you won 8 on the 10th--that's wonderful--I'm on my way out the door right now to try and make my goal today!!

Good Luck to you also.

All the best,

CapperLou

[Tom]

Originally posted by Valuist
Vet Scratch-

Yes those initials of the alleged violator could be the same as a track code. Won't say which one, but I think you know.


could they be the initials from BOTH tracks?
S am Houston
L one Star

:confused:

[VetScratch]

Tom,

You got the first initial right... now think about the SO-CAL tracks, excluding HOL and DMR. :)

[Jaguar]

Ralph and The Twins,

Gee, thanks for straightening me out on that point. Here I had always thought that Wahoochie Downs was Evangeline Downs. -No wonder my database for Beulah Park is messed up.

Accurate, reliable information is so important in this game. It's just a good thing for us small-time horse players that sharp, educated, and alert handicappers- such as yourself- are generous-minded enough to help your less intelligent brethren in their search for the next 3-5 shot.

Ralph, it's evident that you have a solid grasp of this game. Maybe you can advise me on another issue. Do you think that my trainer stats for Hialeah- as well as my class and pace profiles for that track- will still be valid when Hialeah re-opens? And how about my parking pass?

I'm still waiting for Lincoln Downs, Centennial Downs, and Roosevelt Raceway to re-open.

Meanwhile, I'm very busy trying to find a ratio which will allow me to compare Northampton Fair pars- to Aqueduct pars. What is really tricky is charting Northampton's off-track numbers. The rail there can get really deep, while Aqueduct rail mud depth is usually 3-4".

Last time I was at Northampton on a rainy day, the horses were wearing galoshes.

This handicapping game isn't getting any easier, but thanks for helping.

All The Best,

Jaguar

[Tom]

Originally posted by VetScratch
Tom,

You got the first initial right... now think about the SO-CAL tracks, excluding HOL and DMR. :)

The only CA trainers I know are Baffert, Lukas, and Whittingham, and I think one of them is dead.
Oh yeah, that Brooklyn guy too.

[Tom]

Fabric softener might alleviate that annoying itch casued by rough shorts. I always feel more social after I use Downey. :D

[VetScratch]

Bullseye!!! :D :D

[Figman]

I would like to know how long these EPO treated horses can continue to compete? Do they have a much shorter racing usefulness than is the norm for the general racehorse population? This recent business story makes me think EPO adminstration to horses, not controlled to a very careful scientific degree, is extremely dangerous to any horse's well-being.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/031127/j_j_procrit_trials_1.html

[VetScratch]

Top-notch veterinarians and the equine research programs at several universities have concluded that a side-effect of EPO is that horses react to EPO by producing anti-bodies. So prolonged EPO usage weakens the equine immune system and thereby invites any number of other problems... sort of like AIDS where victims succumb to a variety of other problems after their immune systems collapse.