Win Dutch

[teddy]

Playing a win dutch when you give the post time fav of 2-1 little chance of winning. I am considering trying this again on a limited basis. My best guess is that I will have to be smarter than the public by about 8% since I can curry a 9 Percent rebate on my win bets. I am considering chucking anything 20 to one or higher also. Leaving me with about 5 horses to dutch against the chalk.

[teddy]

pid 1
15win 3
60 win 2

[teddy]

75 bet
136 returned... 61 profit

[skate]

welp...you just can't beat a profit.

see about this move.

when you are really on your game, in a twelve horse field, take your two highest odds horses from your top five.

exacta box em and go with your two highest odds again , put em on top with "all" for second and then put them(two higher odds) on bottom of your Tri.


give em a dutch to win

this game is fluid...be there.

[teddy]

pid 2 20 win 3 and 5 5 win 7,8

[teddy]

pid 2

50 out 112 back total profit $123

the two was flying to nail me ...lets keep it going.. we need bad pt favs..with low roi trainers on the move the horse is trying.

[teddy]

Fort Erie chick is doing her impression of SHADES OFF

[Robert Fischer]

nice to see that you are using separate bet-amounts for each of the dutch horses.

how are you figuring the amounts?

theres a basic spreadsheet calculation that i use when dutching to get my amounts. just one way.
I try to underestimate the final odds by a safe enough margin.

I find that dutching in general leaves me with a lower ROI but that sometimes it's worth the higher HIT%.

also a couple trick plays i use to buy insurance at the back end of horizontal (multi race) exotics

interesting topic Teddy :ThmbUp:

[teddy]

fe 6 stuart leggs up olguin to get the horse claimed, looks like he is going down hill so im going on the 2 and 5 only.. 30 win 2 20 win 5

[teddy]

Liven right... 79 profit on fe 6.. $199 total

robert i just adjust in my head.. I used a program before to do 5 horses but it was too much really... I can do 3 horses in my head and be fairly close. Might be a good idea to use the 10-1 and up horses in pick 3 plays. I can see that. Im playing too quick here for that but if you can handicap a card and play against then you have time to tie a few of these races where there is bad chalk together.

Mountainman give out his opinion on bad chalk quite often. Might take a break and come back later..Always take a break when you have a hot run..

[teddy]

FE 15 WIN 58910

HATE THE 12

[teddy]

PEN RACE 3
15 WIN 7
30 WIN 5
10 WIN 2

[teddy]

FE 15 WIN 58910

HATE THE 12
LOST 60.0 PLUS 139

[teddy]

PEN RACE 3
15 WIN 7
30 WIN 5
10 WIN 2

55 OUT , 90 BACK 45 PROFIT TOTAL 184 PROFIT...


PID 5 35 WIN 7 20 WIN 5 5 WIN 3

[teddy]

PID 60 0UT 70 BACK ... 194 TOTAL PROFIT... NOT EXACT...

[teddy]

MNR 8 35 WIN 3 30 WIN 4.....

[teddy]

profit was at 202 before the blow up at mtn.... profit is now at 137...

[dansan]

1-5-6 9th ted

[teddy]

mtn 9 30 win 3 20 win 6 15 win 2

[dansan]

the mtn can be tough to gauge

[teddy]

should have added one more.. down to 70 profit..

[dansan]

the 2 got squeezed down the stretch

[teddy]

mtn 70 win 8 15 win 10...

[Robert Goren]

I wish you best with this. With the takeouts being what they are today it is hard to find to one good bet in race let alone two. There is chart in an old book that I used to use back when I was in college and the takeouts were around 13%. I think still have the book somewhere, if you are interested I could post a copy.

[teddy]

ended up minus 15 but must be ahead quite a bit on rebates.. on to tomorrow.

[teddy]

I wish you best with this. With the takeouts being what they are today it is hard to find to one good bet in race let alone two. There is chart in an old book that I used to use back when I was in college and the takeouts were around 13%. I think still have the book somewhere, if you are interested I could post a copy.


I am just playing with trainer stats and race setups to bet against chalks...probably need to skip more races... till i have real insight..

[teddy]

I wish you best with this. With the takeouts being what they are today it is hard to find to one good bet in race let alone two. There is chart in an old book that I used to use back when I was in college and the takeouts were around 13%. I think still have the book somewhere, if you are interested I could post a copy.
Post it. could be interesting.

[teddy]

suf 1 20 win 1 and 2 30 win 6

[teddy]

6 was supposed to beat the7 to the lead..lol

[teddy]

rd1 40 win 4 15w 6 10w 2

[teddy]

First two races down 135 out and 100 back.. so minus 25 for the day..

[teddy]

cant play against the 7 at suffolk the others suck too bad...in race 2.

[teddy]

suf 3.. 30 win 2,3 9

[teddy]

suf 3 returns 144 for 90 bet...

[teddy]

Profit is at $29 so far..today..


suf 5 30 win 5 6 win 3 10 win 6

[teddy]

odds changed and screwed up the dutch.. profit down to about 10.00

[teddy]

So far this is working out to be a really hot rebate play...You just need a strong opinion against the fav or one of the next two favs to make it work well. Then u have to be right! Huge speed bias at suffolk today makes opportunities against closers.

[teddy]

suf 6 100 win 3 and 30 win 6.... yes its a two horse race.

[teddy]

were at break even after winning that bet yet losing money...lol... but we must be ahead $30 in rebates..

[teddy]

No play in suf 7, the fav looks legit...and he ends up winning..

[teddy]

rd 6.. 60 win 8 25 win 7....

[teddy]

RD 40 WIN 5 30 WIN 1 RAN OUT... 60 DOWN... ABOUT 10 UP W ITH REBATES...

[iwearpurple]

Perfect Example today 3rd at DMR

O'Neil horse Sir Ed - Big drop in class, drops to 12,500 from 40000.

I will bet on the 5 Stu's Gone Wild and the 8 - Classy Lion

[dansan]

I like the 4 belvoirs horse

[teddy]

GOOD CALL.. DIDNT DUTCH BUT KEYED 1,8 ON PICK 3

[iwearpurple]

That was a nice 15.20 return on the 8

[dansan]

:ThmbUp:

[dansan]

nice $1 ex 318

[dansan]

delmar spitten out nice prices

[teddy]

MY PIC 3 WITH THE 8 CAME BACK OVER 400....PICK 3 THERE IS LIKE A PICK 4. MUCH LIKE KEENELAND...

[Robert Goren]

Post it. could be interesting.This is a slightly modified version of a table from Gamblers Digest edited by Clement McQuaid. My current copy was published in 1971, but I am pretty sure there were earlier editions perhaps under a different title.
Total bet not to exceed $50
Odds Bet
3/5 $45
4/5 $40
1/1 $35
6/5 $34
7/5 $32
3/2 $30
8/5 $28
9/5 $26
2/1 $24
5/2 $22
3/1 $20
7/2 $18
4/1 $16
9/2 $14
5/1 $12
6/1 $10
8/1 $8
10/1 $6
14/1 $5
17/1 $4
21/1 $2

[Robert Goren]

If somebody could convert the previous post in to a space saving table, I would not object.

[BIG RED]

If somebody could convert the previous post in to a space saving table, I would not object.

Is this table for 2 horses?

[Robert Goren]

Is this table for 2 horses? 2 or more horses.

[teddy]

please explain how 3 horses are dutched using this.. t hanks.