Do you think "Prime Power" is overbet ?

[porchy44]

Do you think Bris "Prime Power" is overbet ? I Do.

My records indicate when I have reduced a field to two contenders,
it is better for my ROI to bet the lower "prime power"number.

[Robert Goren]

Prime power is not overbet, It picks horses who are overbet. Very few people even look at it even if they do have access to it.

[therussmeister]

Well, if a flat bet on the prime power picks does not turn a profit, it is over bet, even if almost nobody bets it.

[Robert Fischer]

interesting thread development

I'm leaning toward Robert Goren's point here, but I see both arguments...

I really don't know how much Prime Power is considered among players.

there is also the caveat involving Porchy's 2 contender system... :ThmbUp:

[Robert Goren]

Well, if a flat bet on the prime power picks does not turn a profit, it is over bet, even if almost nobody bets it. As they say out here "same difference"

[traveler]

Well, if a flat bet on the prime power picks does not turn a profit, it is over bet, even if almost nobody bets it.
Sorry, but if as an example it returns $1.90 for every $2.00 bet, it is outperforming the "average" winning horse by overcoming the take while still losing. Just because a flat bet on a given figure loses doesn't mean it's overbet.

[benzer]

Sorry, but if as an example it returns $1.90 for every $2.00 bet, it is outperforming the "average" winning horse by overcoming the take while still losing. Just because a flat bet on a given figure loses doesn't mean it's overbet.
Seems to me you are accepting a overall losing wagering scenario and justifying it because it loses less than another wagering scenario. If a person focuses on a given figure and it loses money then it is either overbet or its effectiveness is overstated.

[TrifectaMike]

Well, if a flat bet on the prime power picks does not turn a profit, it is over bet, even if almost nobody bets it.

This is not true.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[salty]

If a horse has a prime power 8 points higher than the rest of the field and goes.off higher than 5/2. I usually will bet it. It's very rare to find but its a good flat bet.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

... Very few people even look at it even if they do have access to it.

While that may be true for handicappers who access the BRIS data files for s/w or spreadsheet use, I would think the "pencil and paper" crowd that uses the BRIS PPs in PDF format use the Prime Power numbers. I know I do. I don't have the data to back it up, but I often see a horse in the top half of the Prime Power rankings in a field win at a nice price. I take a second or third look at a horse that might be ranked with the 3rd or 4th highest prime number that's longer odds, just as I re-evaluate a horse I like that's 11th out of 12 as a sanity check. I handicap via PDFs for about 2/3 of the tracks I bet (mostly for angles), and use s/w and the data files for about the other 1/3, where I also use the PDFs as reference.

Simply betting the top Prime Power number is probably not the road to riches, but for some races they can be useful...

[Capper Al]

My short sample found BRIS' Prime to be a very good indicator. If it isn't in my top three picks,I'll double check my figures.

[Robert Goren]

Almost nobody who goes to the track or simulcast center out here has access to it. The people buy either the form or the simulcast program. I know the could print out Bris PPs, but I have never seen it. It is something online bettors might use, but most of them have their own numbers. I don't think too many decisions are based on it. That is all I am saying.

[Bettowin]

Depends on where, when and why just like most handicapping factors? I have used brisnet and the prime powers to double check but they fall short on class moves IMO.

[llegend39]

Do you think Bris "Prime Power" is overbet ? I Do.

My records indicate when I have reduced a field to two contenders,
it is better for my ROI to bet the lower "prime power"number.

At Saratoga-not yet Opening day the first 3 races were won by the top bris power rating resulting in a $1 pick-3 that paid $204

[EJXD2]

From the archives, the April 1999 edition of the ALL-Ways newsletter (http://bit.ly/q20rIA%20)addressed Prime Power (scroll down to "the comprehensive ratings" header or find "prime power").

As a BRIS user and pick N player, I find myself far more interested in the relative rankings of contenders by Prime Power than their cardinal ranking. That is, in ranking contenders in the Crist-style ABC format, the Prime Power does provide a decent framework of the tiers, though of course it's up to me as handicapper to make the fine line decisions about how variables affecting this race affect a horse's chances.

Anecdotally (i.e., I haven't tracked it but have a feel for it), I find Prime Power most hits the mark for me when there are 2-3 clear standounts but no clear favorite. I'd much rather stand alone three deep (and no Bs) with a trio of 120 prime power horses when the rest of the field is < 105 then take a stand with a 115 Prime Power horse if others are 107-112.

That's not to say that clear standounts can't be profitable, and sometimes it's because you have an angle to bet against them. I'm not sure whether Prime Power as a factor is overbet as the OP asserts, but I am certain that seeing a Prime Power standout is a good indication that the horse will stand out on the tote board as well. If your handicapping points to another horse then Prime Power has helped you target a race to bet, even if it didn't land on the same horse as you did.

[Capper Al]

From the archives, the April 1999 edition of the ALL-Ways newsletter (http://bit.ly/q20rIA%20)addressed Prime Power (scroll down to "the comprehensive ratings" header or find "prime power").

As a BRIS user and pick N player, I find myself far more interested in the relative rankings of contenders by Prime Power than their cardinal ranking. That is, in ranking contenders in the Crist-style ABC format, the Prime Power does provide a decent framework of the tiers, though of course it's up to me as handicapper to make the fine line decisions about how variables affecting this race affect a horse's chances.

Anecdotally (i.e., I haven't tracked it but have a feel for it), I find Prime Power most hits the mark for me when there are 2-3 clear standounts but no clear favorite. I'd much rather stand alone three deep (and no Bs) with a trio of 120 prime power horses when the rest of the field is < 105 then take a stand with a 115 Prime Power horse if others are 107-112.

That's not to say that clear standounts can't be profitable, and sometimes it's because you have an angle to bet against them. I'm not sure whether Prime Power as a factor is overbet as the OP asserts, but I am certain that seeing a Prime Power standout is a good indication that the horse will stand out on the tote board as well. If your handicapping points to another horse then Prime Power has helped you target a race to bet, even if it didn't land on the same horse as you did.

Some interesting stuff at the link.

[JustRalph]

In the Stephen Foster, the 75 dollar winner was PPower #2 if my memory serves me. I distinctly remember thinking, "you don't see ppower #2 at 25-1 very often''

I have a jcapper udm that flags prime power overlays based on the morning line

It doesn't show up very often........

[llegend39]

Still doing well at SAR
Yesterday 2 top power winners,4- 2nd winners and 1- 3rd winner
top-$5.30 and $13
2nd power-$11.60,$15.80,$10.00 and $9.70
3rd power-$20.80

7/9 races won by the Top 3 Bris Power